Thursday, April 23, 2020

Death by the Numbers: Covid-19 Edition

Take a look at the Covid-19 virus death rates for Mississippi.



Ohmigosh, we are running nearly 2%.  Well, yes and no.  Maybe this chart will clarify the first chart a little bit.


13 comments:

Anonymous said...

Does case fatality rate really matter? The infection fatality rate is far more important data although it can really only be estimated at this point. More relevant data is what is the death rate among age groups? The 60+ age group in the State of MS makes up 90% of all deaths.

Anonymous said...

Using confirmed cases as the denominator for mortality rates automatically invalidates these numbers.

We are 100% certain that unreported, mild, and asymptomatic cases outnumber confirmed cases several times over. Which means that the actual mortality rate for MS right now is probably somewhere around 0.1 to 0.2 percent.

In other words, a nasty strain of the flu, unless you're elderly.

It's time to place the burden of isolation on those who are at risk, and let those who are low-risk return to work and school.

Anonymous said...

Many of your readers and bloggers are surgeons who think they should be able to return to performing all their elective surgeries. Many of them are orthopedists. I have changed my mind and I now agree with them.

Since most people (including surgeons and nurses and clerks) who are infectious with the virus are asymptomatic (have no fever or cough), and a doctor's first obligation is to do no harm, the surgery centers should establish a protocol to make certain that they don't give the virus to their patients, many of whom are at high risk of disease and death. The best current way to to this is to screen all the surgeons, nurses, and employees every morning before a patient enters the facility. The two best analyzers for that are the Abbott ID Now (which is fraught with false negatives and probably should not be used) and the Cepheid Gene Xpert. You can get answers inside an hour with these tests and they are 80-90% effective in detecting the virus. So the surgeons and all their staff should be tested daily to assure they will not transmit the virus to their patients, and before a patient enters the door. (After an antibody, IgG is positive in the surgeon or employee, they would be OK to work after eight days and one more PCR test. Until they are IgG positive, daily testing is required.)

In this fashion there will be a reasonable degree of certainty they cannot kill their patients by giving them the virus.

Anonymous said...

translation-if you're 60+, be careful. And if you're less than 40, you're more likely to get hit by a car. looks a lot like the flu

Anonymous said...

Raise your hand if you're excited for Tate to re-open the state on Tuesday so we can all go die for capitalism with Glenn Beck!

Anonymous said...

Virtual hand raised you ding commie!!!

Anonymous said...

Flu v COVID
Flu statistics are from the CDC for 2017-2018, the most severe recent flu season.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm
The COVID stats are for MS and kindly provided by Kingfish above.

Age Cases Deaths Death Rate
Flu 0-49 25.6 million 3,446 .00013
COVID(MS) 0-49 2,374 7 .00295

Flu 50+ 19.1 million 57,654 .003
COVID (MS) 50+ 2,518 186 .074

I know some people say that there are magnitudes of COVID cases not reported so the virus death rate is much lower. What makes you think all of the flu cases are reported?

Anonymous said...

Damn! I thought it was the Obama socialists who wanted to throw gramma and grandpa over the cliff.

Anonymous said...

What we need is a statistical sample nationwide to determine what percentage of the population in each area has been exposed to the coronavirus. Until we know that we have no way to reasonably determine the mortality rate. It is obvious that the initial estimates of 3%-6% are too high, but without a good idea of what they really are and what percentage of the population is still susceptible to the disease we have no way of knowing if opening things back up unrestricted will potentially result in 50,000 more deaths or 1,000,000 more deaths.

Keep in mind New York City accounts for only 2.5% of the U.S. population yet makes up 25% of the deaths, a factor of 10. Most other areas aren't seeing the same rapid spread so far, but that also means a higher percentage have yet to get the disease. If the nationwide infection rate eventually equaled New York City then you would need to multiply the deaths by 10 which would give almost a half-million killed. Given that nobody had immunity to this disease and it is much more contagious than the flu such a number is possible without mitigation.

Anonymous said...

10:10 am and become a murderer without Earthly penalty.

Oh, by the way, let's do hope that repeated exposure and/or the continued mutation of the virus doesn't change the numbers. And, you should hope the long term damage to those who recover isn't really a " thing".

Be sure to ignore that you are also reducing the number of available workers in every sector to illness but more importantly, a significant number of consumers ( especially in Mississippi).

Here's some bad news: our "seniors" represent well over a trillion dollars in spending and have the most wealth in our Nation and that is even more true in our State.

I think some folks opening will get a shock as to how few will be showing up if they can't control the covidiots and make customers feel they are taking every measure to protect them.



Anonymous said...

The tension only makes me stronger. Keep it closed for EVAR!

Cheers,

Team Chaos

Anonymous said...

If I am not mistaken, the White House plan to "re-open" requires a 14 day period of "downward trajectory" of cases before moving forward.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/#criteria

So, it seems to me we are either following the Trump Administration's plan, or we aren't. If we aren't, we should at least be honest enough to admit it, instead of arguing over who's right. So, does Trump's base only follow his lead when it's convenient?

Anonymous said...

11:54 - That's some strong dope.

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