Monday, April 27, 2020

National Review: It's Worse Than the Flu

The communist magazine National Review took issue with those who say the Wuhan virus is no worse than the flu.  John McCormack wrote in the conservative magazine last week:

Although there is still much we don’t know about the coronavirus, we know enough to say that it is far more dangerous and deadly than the flu. It took twelve months and 61 million infections for the H1N1 swine flu to kill 12,500 Americans in 2009–10. The Centers for Disease Control estimated that the seasonal flu killed 34,200 Americans during the 2018–19 flu season. In 2019, car crashes killed 38,800 Americans.

As for the new coronavirus? On March 20, the death toll in the United States was 225. By April 20, the coronavirus had killed more than 42,000 Americans...

Despite the rapidity with which the coronavirus has killed tens of thousands of Americans, some on the right have continued to argue that the pandemic will end up being no more serious than a bad flu season. On Fox News last week, Bill Bennett said that “we’re going to have fewer fatalities from this than from the flu.” He pointed to the fact that the IMHE model from the University of Washington estimated that COVID-19 would most likely kill about 60,000 Americans and that the seasonal flu killed 61,000 Americans in 2017–18, a particularly bad flu season.

But as Rich Lowry pointed out last week, “if we are going to have 60,000 deaths with people not leaving their homes for more than a month, the number of deaths obviously would have been higher — much higher — if everyone had gone about business as usual.” Indeed, the IMHE model is making an estimate of the death toll only for a first wave of infections, and most of the country will still be vulnerable to infection after the first wave passes.

While there are 800,000 confirmed coronavirus cases in the United States — that’s 0.24 percent of the U.S. population — former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb has noted that anywhere between 1 percent and 5 percent of Americans may have actually already been infected with the virus. But that’s far short of the 50 percent to 70 percent required to achieve herd immunity. The seasonal flu, by contrast, infected 12 percent of the American population last year because we have a flu vaccine and some more immunity from previous infections.

Not only does the new coronavirus have the potential to infect many more people than the seasonal flu does, it appears to kill a greater percentage of those infected. You don’t need to rely on various statistical models to come to that conclusion. You just have to look at the reality of what has already happened around the world and in our own country...

The seasonal flu kills 0.1 percent of people infected, but the new coronavirus has already killed 0.1 percent of the entire population of the state of New York. That may seem like a small percentage. But imagine the entire country getting hit as badly as New York state: 0.1 percent of the U.S. population is 330,000 people. And there’s no reason to believe that New York’s current death toll marks the upper limit of the virus’s lethality.

The Wall Street Journal reported that confirmed coronavirus cases in the Italian province of Bergamo (population 1.1 million) had killed 0.2 percent of the entire population in one month. The true percentage may be higher: There were 4,000 more deaths in Bergamo in March 2020 than the average number of deaths in March in recent years, but only 2,000 of those deaths were attributed to confirmed COVID-19 cases.

We are talking not about statistical models of what might happen in the future but about the reality of what has already happened. The virus has killed 100 Italian doctors. That doesn’t happen during a bad flu season. The virus has killed 30 employees of the New York City Police Department. That doesn’t happen during a bad flu season.... Rest of article.
One fact is seldom Reported. The Ro factor for the seasonal flu is 1 while it is between 2 and 3 for the Covid-19 virus.  Big difference. 


19 comments:

Anonymous said...

Not if you exclude all the people counted as Covid19 deaths that actually died of something else. Most of the Covid19 deaths are probable or unconfirmed. Look at NY and PA. Both states are removing deaths from the total because they just assumed if you die positive with Covid19 it must be the reason. It is more infectious, but I seriously doubt more deadly. Antibody testing will prove this true.

Anonymous said...

This is a tough one.

1 - lots of people have died and even more will die.
2 - Governmental response has wrecked the economy.
3 - It will take 10 years to recover from this
4 - We will likely see a national if not worldwide depression from this
5 - Many will lose their home, cars, whatever soon after their jobs
6 - If we can't find a vaccine soon and summer doesn't stop it, things will get much worse.
7 - Living the way we used to live will disappear - might already have disappeared forever (sports, shopping, church, whatever)
8 - There is no way our government can spend us out of this.
9 - The national debt we incur may drag our nation down and destroy America. 10 - I guess the Chinese may succeed in burying us.
11 - We have proven beyond any doubt, our president has the personality and reasoning ability of a third grade bully boy.
12 - Don't take this as a statement that we should have gone with the other party in the last election. I am appalled at the lack of honest leadership in our government.

Anonymous said...

A good article with a reasonable presentation of the facts as we know them now. COVID is more contagious than the flu, is deadlier than the flu, and can infect many more people than the flu. Add that up and you can see where a million Americans dead by this time next year is perfectly reasonable without taking precautions.

I’ll admit we can’t continue with the shutdown we have now, but we can certainly try to set some limits as to activities that are too likely to cause a large number of infections if a contagious person is present. We have to find the balance where life goes on and people can make a living and where we say the risk of infecting a hundred people at one time is too high. Restaurants can spread customers out. Gatherings of over 250 people can wait. Masks can be required in areas that still have community spread. A few simple things can make it where most of regular life can go on.

Anonymous said...

Come on. The National Review ceased see to be a Conservative entity long ago. I remember decades ago going to the bookstore or library just to read it because I couldn't afford to buy it. It was legendary when William Buckley ran it. It exists in name only today.

Anonymous said...

It is surprising to me the number of experts, on all subjects, we read on this Blog. How no idea why people speak badly of such a high IQ state as ours. If it's not one thing it's another. I for one will not wait in a panic for this so called world killer to get me. I'm still betting on the asteroid. Have a great great day.

Anonymous said...

It’s been interesting to see how few conservatives have strayed from their fake news messaging even in light of a global pandemic. It’s been eye opening to say the least.

Anonymous said...

More infectious, no. More deadly, no.

Anonymous said...

From personal experience having a family member contract it, and one close friend, its a tough bug. Both people recovered, but both said it was by far the worst cold/flu type thing they ever had. Breathing was painful. One was in her 30s, the other in his forties. So yes, I can see how it could be more deadly if you are elderly or have health issues.

On the other hand, there are a large number of folks who died "from the virus" who would have died in a few weeks or months from something else. A nursing home is a staging area for a funeral parlor unless a person is there for rehab.

Its bad. Its highly contagious. But its not worth shutting down the entire economy.

Anonymous said...

935- thanks again for your unsubstantiated opinion of what the facts are and what 'will be proven'.

As I did yesterday, I challenge you to provide any evidence of your claim as to the MS numbers - I don't give a damn what PA or NY is doing. MDOH has shown that until the cause of death is determined, they are not including the deaths as COVID (see the recent death of an inmate at the Regional Facility, that had test positive but the were still determining the cause of death at the time of the reporting.)

Its crap like yours, likely started by the George Woods of this social media world, that funnels this crap overriding what the science and numbers dictate.

Anonymous said...

@10:29.

Wrong.

And Wrong.

Come back and play again to see if you can strike out completely.

Anonymous said...

It's quite simple, the government has done next to nothing in almost 3 months with this thing. Social distancing has flattened the curve, but now we're stuck at square one because or federal government is a joke. Looks at South Korea's response. We're the joke of the world as governors decide they're bored at home and are ready to reopen. These reopenings aren't based on logic or metrics, but on the simple fact that the curve has flattened. At this rate we should absolutely expect a second round that is far worse than the first.

Anonymous said...

National Review is nothing but a Zionist Neo-Conservative propaganda rag. And you-know-who are responsible for this entire hoax.

Anonymous said...

11:20,
South Korea doesn't have anything resembling our Bill of Rights and they basically existed in a state of Martial Law from the signing of the Armistice until the 1990s.
The US Constitution and Bill of Rights are more precious than any response to a minor crisis.

Anonymous said...

@11:12. Yes and yes.

Madison Rulz said...

People who can't let go of the flu comparison are proof of how hard it is to change people's opinions. People like to make up their mind and stick to it.

It was an arguable take on March 1. In retrospect it turned out to be wrong. But many people just can't ever be wrong. The problem for them is they now look like crack-pots. When people react to them like they're crack-pots they get angry. Watch the responses to this comment for proof.

Anonymous said...

It's SO easy, to identify the PAID TROLL(S) for the Medical Industry. Scare tactics... Bullying tactics... all here to redefine the issues, and silence/intimidate/belittle anyone with a dissenting opinion.

Anonymous said...

Not exactly revenant to this topic but. What is the number of homeless living on the streets in NYC, New Orleans, Seattle, San Francisco, Austin, etc that have died from Covid. They certainly aren’t washing their hands10 times a day, they aren’t practicing social distancing , no mask, no sanitary facilities. Yet I’ve not seen any reports of large outbreaks in those groups.

Anonymous said...

10:50 am You don't seem to understand that the "underlying conditions" of the elderly are, for the most part, manageable and not " cause of death". That is certainly the case in the bulk of auto-immune diseases. Many heart conditions are now operable or manageable.
I have aunts, uncles and cousins of both sides of my family who are independent and active in their 80s and 90s and some have lived to be over 100 in their own homes with little to no help. You want to rob me of 2-4 decades of life and I don't appreciate it.

Aside from killing Ronald Reagan and Colonel Sanders, both of whom achieved their success over age 60, you'd erase over 10% of all the world's greatest inventions and innovations. You'd also eliminate some of the most loved novels and television programs and famous actors and entertainers.

Maybe the people in your family stop being creative and stop working. The ones in mine , do not.




Anonymous said...

3:11 pm I'm not paid by anyone. But, I am willing to call BS on BS.
A "dissenting" opinion has to have some basis in fact.

BS is BS and a lie is a lie and magical thinking is magical thinking and stupid is still stupid.

It's like the idiot who waves the false flag of the homeless without any clue of why the homeless would be an unknown category. They are seldom given autopsies. They aren't " social".

Looking for something to reinforce your myths or magical thinking isn't a dissenting opinion.

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In the spirit of helping those who are less fortunate, Trollfest '09 adopts a cause for which a portion of the proceeds and donations will be donated: Keeping Frank Melton in his home. The “Keep Frank Melton From Being Homeless” booth will sell chances for five dollars to pin the tail on the jackass. John Reeves has graciously volunteered to be the jackass for this honorable excursion into saving Frank's ass. What's an ass between two friends after all? If Mr. Reeves is unable to um, perform, Speaker Billy McCoy has also volunteered as when the word “jackass” was mentioned he immediately ran as fast as he could to sign up.


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If you get tired come relax at the Fox News Tent. To gain admittance to the VIP section, bring either your Republican Party ID card or a Rebel Flag. Bringing both will entitle you to free drinks.Get your tickets now. Since this is an event for trolls, no ID is required, just bring the hate. Bring the family, Trollfest '07 is for EVERYONE!!!

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