Thursday, April 16, 2020

Covid Goes on the Attack

The Mississippi State Department of Health reported 264 new cases of the Wuhan Virus this morning.  The total number of cases is 3,624.  The virus has caused 129 deaths.  The pace slowed over the last few days but picked up a full  head of steam Tuesday.  It remains to be seen whether the increase is due to increased testing or more actual infections.







The daily moving average shot up this week.




Then there are the counties.







List of notable counties (Deaths)
Adams: 70 (4)
Bolivar: 74 (5)
Desosot: 211 (3)
Forrest: 135 (2)
Hancock: 50 (5)
Harrison: 134 (5)
Hinds: 301 (4)
Jackson: 189 (5)
Lauderdale: 174 (12)
Leflore: 62 (6)
Pearl River: 112 (8)
Rankin: 122 (2)
Madison: 116 (3)
Pike: 82 (2)
Scott: 100
Washington: 67 (2)
Yazoo: 72 (1)

More information and a complete list of infected counties can be found at the MSDH website. 




35 comments:

Anonymous said...

If everyone is social distancing I would like to know how people are becoming infected. Is it by means of family members? People refusing to social distance? Grocery shopping? Doctors offices? Touching gas pumps? I would think that would be important information to know.

Anonymous said...

we haven’t hit peak yet. was predicted for april 18...i’m sure there will be an easter bump..

Anonymous said...

Readers will have to remember we are in the second inning of a nine inning game. The numbers will continue to grow as the infection spreads. We aren't "fighting" COVID. We are slowing it down. If we are lucky, it will slowly spread to 30-40 % of the population over the next nine months and we won't overtax our health facilities.

Anonymous said...

Most everything except retail is an essential business, so I suspect most people are getting it from work (including the travel to/from work) or from those who have gone to work.

Anonymous said...

clearly "stay at home" isn't working. Next...........

Anonymous said...

10:43. not everyone is. and that’s part of the problem.

kids with playtime with friends, teens still hanging out, not staying home when sick.., all of it.

flattening the curve is to alleviate stress on the healthcare system, it’s not the strategy to ridding us of covid19

Anonymous said...

Readers will have to remember we are in the second inning of a nine inning game.

Stall tactic. We're not under martial law.

... and we won't overtax our health facilities.

Already demonstrated in NYC to be BS.

EAB said...

@10:43, the people getting tested and showing up now could easily have been infected as much as two weeks ago, and ditto for the people who infected them.

Plus, many people are still going to work because they do essential jobs that can't be remote, and once it gets introduced into that population, it can explode. Look at the meat-processing plant in South Dakota, which has like 25% of its workforce infected, and which accounts for over half of the total cases in the entire state.

@11:16: you think it wouldn't be still worse if all of those 3600 people were still running around restaurants and stores and the like? Would you want to be in Target with one of them?

Calm Down said...

How hard can it be to get testing on a wide scale basis? I just don't hear questions or answers to that question at the briefing. Obviously, that is proving to be a bigger issue than I thought it could be. At this point, the public has become so terrified of covid that only universal testing will put folks at ease enough to get back to work. Living in lock down is not going to be possible long term.

Anonymous said...

The numbers would be exponentially large if we weren't doing this.

Honestly, these comments wanting to "open everything back up" discount real human lives and the sacrifice that healthcare workers are making every second. I hope JJ doesn't become a forum for these witless rangers to grow.

You've sacrificed 3 weeks at home to save your neighbors, but you can't take it any more. America is fucked if this is the extent our society is able to sacrifice for our fellow man. Grow a pair and deal with it, people.

Anonymous said...

I don’t understand why MSDH cannot graph hospitalization/ICU/ventilation rates by day. This would be much more informative than testing data.

Anonymous said...

11:16, that's idiotic. That's just plain moron level stupidity.

Around one month ago, March 13, cases were doubling every 3 days. Then, we took action.

If we had not, if the number of cases were to continue to double every three days, there would be about a hundred million cases in the United States by May.

And with 100 million cases by NOT social distancing, we'd have had 2 million more unnecessary deaths.

As it is, COVID has become not only an EXTRA new cause of death, but the LEADING one.

As it is, we've had 30,000 dead in 6 weeks. That's more than war, WWII, even, at its worst rate of loss.

You just can't be that stupid. Can you? Please tell me you're not and you're just posting snark.

Anonymous said...

Hospitalizations are probably a good measure of how the virus is spreading. Even from the beginning those that were exhibiting severe symptoms were tested. Increased testing of those with mild symptoms would drive the total rate up, but it is reasonable to think almost all hospitalized patients have been tested and therefore an increase in hospitalizations is due to an increase in transmission rates. The current number is 682 which is a pretty large increase over time.

The only good thing to say is that a lot of the hospitalizations likely contracted the virus before the stay-at-home order was issued April 3. Hopefully we'll see that number start to decline over the next week. It takes a good two or three weeks to see results from societal changes. Those clamoring for a complete return to previous behavior because the numbers didn't immediately start dropping simply have no idea how epidemiology works.

Anonymous said...

Looking at the daily data is a bit misleading. It typically takes 2-10 days before results are processed and reported. In reality, your daily data is data from roughly 1 week ago. Date of symptom onset is a more accurate representation than the reported daily numbers.

Kingfish said...

Calm down, why don't you read my post from 6 this morning.

Anonymous said...

It's not my job to save my obese neighbor or my neighbor with diabetes or my neighbor with any number of other co-morbidities that they have acquired via a lifetime of self-abusive practices.

Anonymous said...

I don't blindly trust their "numbers". The bigger the "crisis" the more "important" and "powerful" these people are. Human nature is a bitch!



Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
I don’t understand why MSDH cannot graph hospitalization/ICU/ventilation rates by day. This would be much more informative than testing data.
April 16, 2020 at 11:45 AM

================
State agency. Nuff said

Anonymous said...

@12:19 - that's Matthew 19:23, am I right chap? Thought I recognized it!

Anonymous said...

What would be extremely useful are generic connect-the-dots infection paths, where reasonably determined, for those testing positive. This would bring the nebulous decrees into better focus and would serve as more effective motivation for our citizens.

Calm Down said...

@KingFish
I did see that post, but only after I posted here. I appreciate the info on testing and your efforts.

Anonymous said...

Don't worry.

By tomorrow, Reeves is going to announce that he will lift the stay and all hell will break loose.

Sit back and watch sh*t get really interesting.

Anonymous said...

I would like to go get the virus, stay home 14 days like I already am, and get it over with. I think it's advantageous to get it and be able to prove you have had it going forward. We are giving up tons of freedom and the numbers do not support the draconian measures that been taken. Have y'all checked out the CA proposal around the use of technology? Thomas Jefferson just rolled over in his grave. The bravery of our forefathers to give us liberty and freedom only for us to surrender many of these over a virus that's infected 1/10 of 1 percent of our population.

TheClintonscantsuicideusall said...

Still can't be bothered about something I and you have absolutely no control over. Why worry about a death several days to weeks from now when you can be gone in the next few minutes? Besides it's a virus that doesn't give one rats ass about social distancing. It has probably already been introduced in to many many folks. Maybe even me.

Anonymous said...

12:19, it's called mercy and it's applicable both ways. Why do I need to put my healthy 80y/o parents at risk because you couldn't save your money for times like these?

Anonymous said...

10:43AM asked, "If everyone is social distancing I would like to know how people are becoming infected. Is it by means of family members? People refusing to social distance? Grocery shopping? Doctors offices? Touching gas pumps?"

Yes, those are among the reasons, but no one can give specific numbers to specific sources of spreading. The two biggest _probable_ methods are not practicing social distancing and insufficient hygiene/personal practices. For example, I was in a grocery store a couple of days ago and while many were wearing a variety of masks, many were not. I saw a couple of people touch their faces, one was wearing a mask. I saw several people ignoring the check-out line spacing. Many people are still visiting family and friends simply to socialize. From reports, this is especially true in the black community and to their credit, many black leaders around the state and country are pleading with them to stop doing that. Whether black or white, if you socialize, use the recommendations for "public" interaction, i.e., keep at least 6 feet apart, no groups over 6-10 people, wear masks, wash or sanitize your hands after any contact with people or "stuff" others may have touched, etc. There are still many, many people not treating this seriously at all and that is a very dangerous situation.

One good thing is that researchers around the world are working hard day and night to discover and learn about both the virus itself and COVID-19. However, one very bad thing (and one that is working against all of that research) is that people who have no knowledge, education, or experience in anything even tertiary to the relevant science and medicine are posting and reposting bad information day and night and the amount of incorrect information out there is also very dangerous. I realize that my posting this to JJ will not change many minds, but if it changes even one or two, I feel it was worth a few minutes of my time. So,

PRACTICE SOCIAL DISTANCING. THAT INCLUDES NOT MAKING UNNECESSARY TRIPS TO STORES OR OTHER PUBLIC PLACES AS WELL "SOCIAL" ENGAGEMENT WITH NON-HOUSEHOLD MEMBERS

WASH OR SANITIZE YOUR HANDS

WEAR A MASK AND LEARN HOW TO PUT IT ON AND TAKE IT OFF

IF YOU WEAR GLOVES IN PUBLIC, LEARN TO HOW TO PUT THEM ON AND TAKE THEM OFF.

DO NOT TOUCH YOUR FACE UNLESS YOUR HANDS ARE WASHED OR SANITIZED

A short note on gloves: Gloves are not a "wonder shield" and can actually be a problem if you don't know how and when to put them on, take them off, and when to change them. No, you cannot do it like you're simply keeping grease from you hands when working on a car. Putting gloves on unwashed hands, touching contaminated surfaces and touching your face, and removing them improperly are as bad or worse than not wearing them at all. They can create a false sense of security, so if you're going to wear them, learn about them.

Lastly, as an aside, when we must go out in public, we do not wear hats, watches or other jewelry of any kind, we don't use cash or carry a wallet (and my wife doesn't carry a purse) or anything more than an ID and the card(s) we will use while out. We wash or sanitize our hands regularly, especially when getting into our car. We remove and sanitize our shoes and remove outer garments before we enter the house, and we mist our car's surfaces with disinfectant when we get home. We have had a couple of small (2-3 couples) social gatherings with friends who exercise similar precautions, but we stayed outside, had a table for each couple about 10 feet apart and were extremely careful to keep distances at all times. Sure, some will say all of that sounds extreme. Maybe so - after all, what do a bunch of doctors and medical professionals know, right?

Anonymous said...

So far, the death rate for Mississippi seems to be slightly lower than Iceland's. That's amazing, considering that 23 percent of Icelanders are obese, while 37 percent of Mississippians are obese.

Apparently, Mississippi is doing an outstanding job, caring for those infected individuals who are made seriously ill by the disease.

Anonymous said...

Hey doc what do you think about sanitizing with UV light?

Anonymous said...

Half the dead didn't die because of the virus. They already had a foot in before this started. If you're presumed to have it, you're counted as having it with or without confirmation. And if you die positive with it you're counted as dying from it whether or not it caused or contributed to the actual death. All of it is as dumb as the gloves and masks. But if you need a false sense of security, go for it. Do you and I'll do me.

Anonymous said...

1219 with your 'it's all about me' egotistic, no narcissistic attitude, do you feel that way about your neighbor that just happened to reach the ripe old age of 70? Or your neighbor that - thru no fault of their own, has recently finished chemo treatment for cancer and thus has a reduced immune system?

Or are you just a true son of a hitch that doesn't give a damn about anybody but yourself? If so, I hope you are single, with no kids, and your parents are dead.

Anonymous said...

151 - you and the Reeves haters wI'll never be satisfied. You are claiming he will lift the SIP tomorrow. Yesterday, another of your klan was bit ching saying Reeves will be the LAST one to lift the SIP order, only following all the other states.

Truth is, yall just want to bitch about whate very Reeves does. Let me guses how you voted - last August and November.

Anonymous said...

645 Source? Or is that your opinion that you got from reading somebody else's social media comment?

Or was it a message you got from the antennas on the top of your tin foil hat?

Anonymous said...

The Covid swabs go far enough up your nose to give you a migraine.

Anonymous said...

"Hey doc what do you think about sanitizing with UV light?"

I have no idea to which "doc" this was addressed, but if I may:

Yes, very specific wavelengths of UV show promise in deactivating the SARS-CoV-2 virus, just as those wavelengths can sanitize against many of the nasties that commonly cause problems. But:

No, a tanning bed won't do it and neither will sunlight. For those that would argue and bring up what they heard on Facebook, etc., if things like mere sunlight or other sources of "UV light" were effective sterilization/sanitation methods, there would be no need for autoclaves, virucides, proper wavelength UV-C sterilizers, etc. If you want to know the specifics, research them.

The real issue with broadly answering such a question is that it is akin to saying, "can you can use alcohol to kill this virus or sanitize things?" While readily-available things like "70% rubbing alcohol" or 70% alcohol hand sanitizer will rapidly deactivate SARS-CoV-2, it doesn't mean that everything that contains any alcohol, from pure ethanol to Bud Light, provides instant sterilization upon contact, i.e., making it instantly completely safe and totally incapable transmitting this particular virus by deactivating it.

What is commonly called "killing COVID" - you can't "kill" COVID-19 because it is the illness not the virus and you can't "kill" the SARS-CoV-2 virus because it isn't "alive" - is really, in general terms, deactivating the SARS-CoV-2 virus by affecting its casing so that it cannot infect hosts. Depending on the specifics, a particular method may effectively disrupt it or it may not. Things like sunlight and tanning beds simply do not produce enough, if any, of the right UV wavelength light to effectively sterilize things. To continue the alcohol analogy, dunking a swab from a positive patient in pure ethanol will deactivate the virus nearly instantly, but dunking it into a glass of beer and most liquors or rinsing your hands with them will not (and sorry, nope, drinking them won't either). That's why many distillers issued statements warning that their normal products were not of a sufficient percentage of alcohol to work and changed to producing alcohol that was high enough percentage to make effective hand sanitizer. In liquor, "proof" is twice the percentage of alcohol, 80-100 proof is 40-50% alcohol, so unless the liquor in question is at least 140 proof (70%) it isn't an effective sanitizer.

Anonymous said...

What wavelength UV light you using? It has to be over 240. It kills most viruses so it is believed to kill Corna too. Google it!

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Trollfest '07 was such a success that Jackson Jambalaya will once again host Trollfest '09. Catch this great event which will leave NE Jackson & Fondren in flames. Othor Cain and his band, The Black Power Structure headline the night while Sonjay Poontang returns for an encore performance. Former Frank Melton bodyguard Marcus Wright makes his premier appearance at Trollfest singing "I'm a Sweet Transvestite" from "The Rocky Horror Picture Show." Kamikaze will sing his new hit, “How I sold out to da Man.” Robbie Bell again performs: “Mamas, don't let your babies grow up to be Bells” and “Any friend of Ed Peters is a friend of mine”. After the show, Ms. Bell will autograph copies of her mug shot photos. In a salute to “Dancing with the Stars”, Ms. Bell and Hinds County District Attorney Robert Smith will dance the Wango Tango.

Wrestling returns, except this time it will be a Battle Royal with Othor Cain, Ben Allen, Kim Wade, Haley Fisackerly, Alan Lange, and “Big Cat” Donna Ladd all in the ring at the same time. The Battle Royal will be in a steel cage, no time limit, no referee, and the losers must leave town. Marshand Crisler will be the honorary referee (as it gives him a title without actually having to do anything).


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In the spirit of helping those who are less fortunate, Trollfest '09 adopts a cause for which a portion of the proceeds and donations will be donated: Keeping Frank Melton in his home. The “Keep Frank Melton From Being Homeless” booth will sell chances for five dollars to pin the tail on the jackass. John Reeves has graciously volunteered to be the jackass for this honorable excursion into saving Frank's ass. What's an ass between two friends after all? If Mr. Reeves is unable to um, perform, Speaker Billy McCoy has also volunteered as when the word “jackass” was mentioned he immediately ran as fast as he could to sign up.


In order to help clean up the legal profession, Adam Kilgore of the Mississippi Bar will be giving away free, round-trip plane tickets to the North Pole where they keep their bar complaint forms (which are NOT available online). If you don't want to go to the North Pole, you can enjoy Brant Brantley's (of the Mississippi Commission on Judicial Performance) free guided tours of the quicksand field over by High Street where all complaints against judges disappear. If for some reason you are unable to control yourself, never fear; Judge Houston Patton will operate his jail where no lawyers are needed or allowed as you just sit there for minutes... hours.... months...years until he decides he is tired of you sitting in his jail. Do not think Judge Patton is a bad judge however as he plans to serve free Mad Dog 20/20 to all inmates.

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Jackson Jambalaya is the home of Trollfest '07. Catch this great event which promises to leave NE Jackson & Fondren in flames. Sonjay Poontang and his band headline the night with a special steel cage, no time limit "loser must leave town" bout between Alan Lange and "Big Cat"Donna Ladd following afterwards. Kamikaze will perform his new song F*** Bush, he's still a _____. Did I mention there was no referee? Dr. Heddy Matthias and Lori Gregory will face off in the undercard dueling with dangling participles and other um, devices. Robbie Bell will perform Her two latest songs: My Best Friends are in the Media and Mama's, Don't Let Your Babies Grow up to be George Bell. Sid Salter of The Clarion-Ledger will host "Pin the Tail on the Trial Lawyer", sponsored by State Farm.

There will be a hugging booth where in exchange for your young son, Frank Melton will give you a loooong hug. Trollfest will have a dunking booth where Muhammed the terrorist will curse you to Allah as you try to hit a target that will drop him into a vat of pig grease. However, in the true spirit of Separate But Equal, Don Imus and someone from NE Jackson will also sit in the dunking booth for an equal amount of time. Tom Head will give a reading for two hours on why he can't figure out who the hell he is. Cliff Cargill will give lessons with his .80 caliber desert eagle, using Frank Melton photos as targets. Tackleberry will be on hand for an autograph session. KIM Waaaaaade will be passing out free titles and deeds to crackhouses formerly owned by The Wood Street Players.

If you get tired come relax at the Fox News Tent. To gain admittance to the VIP section, bring either your Republican Party ID card or a Rebel Flag. Bringing both will entitle you to free drinks.Get your tickets now. Since this is an event for trolls, no ID is required, just bring the hate. Bring the family, Trollfest '07 is for EVERYONE!!!

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