We haven't spent much time on this website analyzing the Senate race results. This National Review article will get us off to a good start. NR said the real reason McDaniel won (let's face it, he won even though he did not reach 50% of the vote.) was due to the media strategy. Henry Olsen writes:
The immediate punditry on Tuesday’s Mississippi GOP Senate primary has focused on the “establishment versus Tea Party” trope. There’s a lot to this, but the final results might be more easily explained by two simple factors present in every campaign: regionalism and campaign tactics.
I encourage everyone interested in this to look at the county returns. If you do, you can’t escape the fact that McDaniel owed his slim victory primarily to overwhelming percentages of the vote in his home base in Hattiesburg. He represents Jones County in the Mississippi state senate, and on Tuesday he won 85 percent of the vote there. Moreover, the former Hattiesburg-based radio host also did extraordinarily well in the counties in the Hattiesburg media market. He won every one of those counties, normally with over 70 percent of the vote. His statewide margin was a shade under 1,400 votes, but he carried Jones by 9,200 and the rest of the media market by another 8,200. He also carried three neighboring counties just outside of the media market (Jeff Davis, Clarke, and Smith) by another 1,500 votes.....
Mississippi has six major media markets based in-state, but substantial parts of the state are served by four out-of-state markets: Memphis, Baton Rouge, New Orleans, and Mobile-Pensacola. If one looks at the six counties in the three southern out-of-state markets and the three counties in the Memphis media market with substantial numbers of Republicans that are also part of the Census Bureau’s Memphis metropolitan area, one finds that McDaniel also carried eight of these counties. Moreover, he carried them heavily, with between 56 and 69 percent in the eight counties in which he won. Including Hancock County, which he lost and borders the Biloxi market on the Katrina-stricken Gulf Coast, McDaniel beat Cochran by over 8,900 votes in the out-of-state, core Memphis-area counties.
This is incredibly odd. McDaniel did not beat Cochran with over 57 percent of the vote in any other county of the state that was not part of the Hattiesburg region. He lost to Cochran in the rural parts of the Memphis market not in the Memphis metro area; he even lost in the rural northeast, Columbus media market that was Rick Santorum’s base in the 2012 GOP presidential primary.
In short, Thad Cochran beat Chris McDaniel handily in the five, non-Hattiesburg, in-state media markets. He beat McDaniel comfortably even when Hattiesburg is thrown into the mix. He lost solely because he ran well behind his showing in the rest of Mississippi in these fringe, out-of-state media market counties where it is very expensive to advertise per Mississippi voter reached owing to the high percentage of non-Mississippi residents in the market.
That’s the sort of result you would expect to see if only one candidate were on the air in those markets, or if one candidate focused its media more closely on certain parts of that market (i.e., perhaps McDaniel bought on Memphis drive time radio while Cochran did not).
If that did happen, if Cochran’s outside allies avoided these markets because of the cost while McDaniel’s allies did not, it was the classic case of penny wise and pound foolish. Had Cochran simply run even with McDaniel in those counties, he would have won enough votes to have won without a runoff. Had he replicated his showing in the Columbus market, he would have won with thousands of votes to spare.
I’m sure the truth won’t come out until after the runoff. Rest of essay
He is almost there but not quite. It is true McDaniel outspent Cochran in Memphis and other out of state media markets. However, such a disparity did not happen because the Cochran team chose to ignore those markets. They just did not have the money to match the McDaniel side.
The untold story of this race is how the Cochran campaign did not have the money to compete where it needed to in order to win. Think about that little fact for a moment. Thad Cochran was outspent in the last three weeks of the race in his own state. The money raised by Cochran and the Cochran PAC was spent over a period of several months. The McDaniel side spent a much larger part of their money in the last few weeks of the campaign. Hence the Cochran side faced a Blitz for which it was ill-able to combat. This column merely reinforces that little observation. Stay tuned.
Note: Yes, this is another Senate post but guess what? Y'all are reading all Senate race posts. Traffic reflects it and it is local traffic, not out of state. Sorry.
91 comments:
Cochran did not lose DeSoto because of Memphis TV or Pearl River because of New Orleans TV; He lost them because they are TP crazy places.
In other words, National Review doesn't have a friggin' clue. But somebody had a deadline to meet.
He 'won' because most of America is fed up with the dynosaurs in congress who do nothing other than feather their nests. It's got nothing to do with nursing homes, tea parties, promises or the brotherhood.
This race is the most fascinating state race in Mississippi since when?
Seems like a long time to me.
Cochran has been in the US Senate for 36 years. He's a known commodity whose pork barrel politics has at some point over the last 30+ years directly profited large numbers of longtime Mississippi residents. Yet, this article seems to be saying that people voted for McDaniel because of a McDaniel ad blitz in the last three weeks of the campaign to which Cochran could not respond.
I have a better explanation. McDaniel is from Jones County. He is known there and liked there. Of course, Jones County supported its native son.
As for DeSoto County and the coast counties, they are full of displaced whites who have fled black controlled Memphis and New Orleans. Many of them haven't been Mississippians for long and therefore haven't yet been bought off by Cochran's pork. Meanwhile, such people are just the sort who are receptive to the message of lower taxes, less welfare, and less government interference in their lives. They have witnessed firsthand what happens when governments take their money and apply justice partially to reward the narrow constituencies keeping those governments in power.
Cochran won the Coast. He won Hancock and Harrison and narrowly lost in Jackson County but won south of I-10. Anyone who has to cross a bridge on a regular basis voted for Cochran. Pearl River which is counted in the New Orleans media market and George which is counted in the Mobile media market are Piney Woods tea-party places where it is still 1964.
In other words, 3:46, the so called tea-party is successful. Once we wake up and realize 'The Tea Party' and Libertarians are actually US, we can turn this whole place around. Until then, it's more of the decline of our America.
You pricks who think 'Tea Party' = kooks and radicals are part of the problem. Many of you remain in lock step behind 'the piper' and are headed straight off the gang plank, smiling and sipping chardonnay.
So, the establishment is making excuses and blaming it on campaign strategy errors. Yet, the establishment insists we back establishment candidates because the TEA folks are amateur hour.
I see.
It's an interesting piece (well, the portion printed here is interesting). This, however, is a howler:
"He lost to Cochran in the rural parts of the Memphis market not in the Memphis metro area;"
DeSoto County is hardly rural, and if any part of this state is in the Memphis metro area, it's DeSoto County.
And, as someone who gets most of his local TV from the Memphis market, I can say I saw a lot of ads from both Cochran and the independent PACs that supported him. I don't doubt he was outspent, but he was hardly absent.
Finally, there are lot of folks with Mississippi roots in those suburbs in DeSoto County. It's not so much white-flight as white-not-going-there.
Anonymous at 3:46 shouldn't be so anonymous. That's a very good response to Henry Olsen, who I'm sure is a swell guy but probably couldn't find Mississippi with a map and a compass. The Cochran campaign didn't get surprised. With their experience in running successful political campaigns, how could any Barbour get surprised like this? The Cochran campaign might have been outspent in some markets, but not by much. They just got outworked. McDaniel has inspired voters across the state for the need for change, and he has inspired them big. Despite his genteel nature, Senator Cochran has to show some public enthusiasm for the job at hand - and an obviously rehearsed interview with Berrrrrt Case doesn't count - or the runoff won't even be close. Bill Billingsley
And That's The Bottom Line Says: Thad thinks the seat belongs to him. The voters understand the seat belongs to THEM.
It's no longer 'his to lose'. He's a goner. Go ahead and move the plaques and elephant statues into the basement apartment.
Wow. So, Cochran's campaign wastes all his contributors' money demonizing a fellow Republican. And we're supposed to pity him for running low at the end? What a bunch of arrogant entitlement. But, way to "hand him his head," Henry! Thanks!! Go Barbours!
This must be Mississippi'a punishment for failing to put enough emphasis on education all these years. I can hardly imagine any sane person who made it past his or her sophomore year in college voting for the Tea Party nut. 3:46, nice job making this about race by the way. I needed a healthy dose of ignorance, and I found that in abundance right here.
This race is about job retention and job growth. Thad has proven he is a job creator. If you work in education, at a University, on or near a military installation, manufacturer, medical, Stennis Space Center.... vote for Thad. We will lose jobs if We don't re-elect Senator Cochran. Think about it.
Ron Paul has now endorsed Chris McDaniel.
DeSoto County is nothing like the Coast. Republicans on the Coast just voted for Gene Taylor and Thad Cochran.
Indulge me while I pretend to be a Tea Partier for a minute.
"Hey, my name is Bubba. I think there is no such thing as good government. You heard that right, I'm actually dumb enough to think the interstate system, having a national army, and child labor laws were bad ideas, and I will challenge you to a duel if you disagree.
Because no government is good government, I will be voting for whatever candidate that won't do jack s*** with his job. Therefore, I will choose the candidate who has the worst truancy record in the State senate during his time there. What do ya know - that's Chris McDaniel! Yee haw!
And don't come talk to me about any of that Appropriations Committee intellectual crap. That doesn't exist. It's just a ploy by the liberal media. If it doesn't come from Glenn Beck or Hannity, I don't believe it.
Go McDaniel!"
These are scary times we live in.
Rep.(VA) Eric Cantor, House Majority Leader and flaming warmonger, loses re-election.
Cantor is really a Tea Party scalp!
Those of you who believe that 1) everyone who voted for Chris McDaniel is a flaming redneck, and 2) it's going to help your cause to tell us all how stupid we are, please keep it up. Bill Billingsley
Since Mississippi gets back $3 dollars for every dollar
we send to Washington. Do the McDaniel supporters
realize that we benefit the most from deficit spending ?
If McDaniel actually believes his rhetoric we are screwed
and if he doesn't, he is just another politician and one
without any seniority in the Senate.
Just like his twin Joel Osteen preaches about the apocalypse, McDaniel IS the apocalypse for future jobs in MS. Tea Baggers...you will need your gas masks, MREs and Bitcoin that you trade at your white sheet rallies.... because our society will collapse under your policies.
Check out the details of how and to whom the taxpayer monies are re-distributed by DC to Mississippi at Col. Reb's blog.
If its all about federal money why didn't Bryant take more of it? He is a Tea Bagger too.
I see that Thad has called McDaniel 'dangerous'. I am reminded of C. S. Lewis The Screwtape Letters. In one part of the story Lewis said that the Devil had a contest to see which of his demons could come up with the best plan to convince people not to seek God. The winning entry was submitted by a demon who said 'Tell them there is plenty of time.' And that is why the dangerous one is Thad. Except that Thad says 'Tell tell there is plenty of time and money." Folks the USA spends about 40% of all tax money paying interest on the national debt. Do you know anyone who does that at their house? Make up someone. Then make up a budget for them. Pretend it is a family of four. The combined annual income is say $50,000. Now, subtract $20,000 interest expense. Make up a budget for them to live on the remaining $30,000. It's crazy. Except it is real for all of us. Thad has convinced himself and many of us that there is plenty of time and plenty of money and he is not worried about this 18 billion debt that we have. (If you ask him, he would say he is worried. I don't care what he says. How does he vote?) If interest rates were to go up by 5% the USA would find itself in a huge mess. In order the save the USA we must decrease the size of the federal government. Not a little bit, a lot. Thad ain't gonna do it. Thad believes there is plenty of time and plenty of money. Thad believe it is OK for us to spend money we don't have and ask our grandchildren to pay the bills. Do you?
Keep up the name calling, Cochran supporters. The opposition is far more motivated than Thad's tired and worn out constituency, and getting more motivated with every insult.
Of course, the ultimate insult is running someone who doesn't even want the job just so he can be replaced afterwards with the designated hand picked crony. A crony that you apparently believed incapable of winning election on his own merit.
I don't know which is worse, being dumb enough to fall for a very thinly disguised bait and switch, or knowing what's happening and thinking it's completely acceptable.
What you fail to realize is many of aren't voting for McDaniel so much as we're voting against what's happening. I will be at the polls for the runoff come hell or high water, and I won't be voting for Cochran.
We educated Mississippians WILL be voting for Thad. Just like BB King, Thad may be older but he still has it. And he will be here for his full term. He is stronger than you HEA Party (Had Enough Already) idiots. We have had enough of you snaggle toothed tattooed meth redneck crowd that are not the true Mississippians. Jones County is not the hood ornament of Mississippi. We are awake and ready to preserve our economic resiliency and you will not stop us.
What has happened to my Mississippi Republican Party? The far right, represented by the Tea Party, will destroy all credibility of the Party. The lesson of the last national election is that the ultra conservative, anti-whatevers are not wanted. Cochran has always been a moderate, which suits me fine. Wish he had retired, but I cannot vote for a Tea Party candidate.
10:08 p.m. -- we live in a state where 43 cents of every dollar is Federal funding. We are a poor state, and the jobs created allow people to live a better life. No matter what, Chris, if he is elected will be 1 vote, and will sway no one because of his junior seniority, nor will our taxes that we pay now, miraculously disappear down to zero, along with the federal deficit, if he goes to DC.
If he could, WHERE would Chris McDaniel cut federal funds in our state? I have yet to have ONE MCDANIEL supporter offer me the McDaniel PLAN -- no one knows it.
I do believe we deserve to know where, since it will effect 50% of those or more, who live in this state.
Shipbuilding? University Research? Agri-business? I am assuming there is a plan, he's just waiting to showcase it.
It's easy to be against everything, but what exactly is he for, besides his standard Constitution, God, Liberty, Babies, Deficit Reduction.....etc....??????
4:19 said: "You pricks who think 'Tea Party' = kooks and radicals are part of the problem. Many of you remain in lock step behind 'the piper' and are headed straight off the gang plank, smiling and sipping chardonnay."
4:19 nailed it. I truly am undecided who to vote for in the runoff. I'd like to hear the Cochran supporters discuss issues rather than demonizing the Tea Party.
Please vote for Chris McDaniel - he won't have any power and he won't be interested in governing so I can just ignore him, and if the Republicans get the majority and I have to cut deals to keep the government running I know Mitch can't deliver enough votes from his caucus so he will have to make deals that get Democratic votes. Thank you for your help.
- The President
I like how people point to the magical 3:1 tax dollar ratio like it's a life and death issue. Mississippi is the poorest and MOST CORRUPT state in the Union. 1/2 of the Katrina claims were fraudulent. Politicians here steal like it's the rule (See Robert Graham). Point to that 3 to 1 "disparity" and index it against other state's income and you'll see just how poor Mississippi is.
Let me point to something. The VA. President Obama isn't responsible for it, the people sitting on their asses in Congress are! Thad himself claims to be a veteran while not caring about the men coming home torn to shreds from a 12 year war. Mississippi energy prices are some of the highest in the nation and Thad himself sits on the Appropriations Committee for Energy Development. Some things are hard to deny.
To @7:45 PM. Your interjection of the issue of racism into this discussion implicates a large percentage of this blogs' readership. Are you saying that all of this blogs' fans who have moved from Hinds County to Madison County or Rankin County over the last 25 years are racists? Or are you saying that just those who moved and then voted for Chris McDaniel are the racists?
A while back, a very well known MS elected official told me "say what you have to say to get elected and govern how you see fit," well Chris McDaniel is doing just that by promising everything to everyone.
Be careful what you wish for.
If you believe his inside the beltway hype machine, he will fix all of our problems. Rock on Chris! FYI---- the late night party at the Hinds County Courthouse on June 24th will kick off around midnight, featuring DJ Janis on the ones and twos!
A while back, a very well known MS elected official told me "say what you have to say to get elected and govern how you see fit," well Chris McDaniel is doing just that by promising everything to everyone.
Be careful what you wish for.
If you believe his inside the beltway hype machine, he will fix all of our problems. Rock on Chris! FYI---- the late night party at the Hinds County Courthouse on June 24th will kick off around midnight, featuring DJ Janis on the ones and twos!
There is no McDaniel plan just as Obama had no real plan when elected. I wouldn't be out telling people Ron Paul had endorsed McDaniel. That just means the king & queen of the nut can think McDaniel is great. Now back in the real world, it takes federal dollars to create jobs and attract businesses to Mississippi. Much of it has to do with you tea party types home schooling your unvaccinated kids aka uneducated unskilled workforce. See we have to create training programs to teach the children how to turn the bolt counterclockwise. If we didn't Nissan, Toyota, our robust ship building and space science and emerging surgical implant industry would not exist. Our many state funded universities provide countless jobs and economic impact within our state. Should you cut the funding for all upper end redneck jobs and all college educated jobs the remains are folks who get a government check, that includes county, state and federal workers. It would be economic death on the scale of Detroit to elect McDaniel. We already suffer from brain drain. This would be the fatal blow. We already can't land a Fortune 500 company. The best we can attract is Butler Snow. Please step away from the voting booth and return to your Glenn Beck and Honey Boo Boo tv viewing. The educated class in Madison county will let you know who to vote for come Election Day.
11:38. No, you idiot. Read my post again, and you will see that I was not interjecting race into the issue, but rather, I was telling another person not to. You must be one of those victims of our lack of focus on education to which I was referring.
11:01...you must not have a tv, b/c Chris has clearly laid out his plan in never ending commercials-- Yes to prayer in school. Yes to the 2nd Amendment. No to Obamacare. See? He knows exactly what it will take to turn this place around. LOL
Just now saw the Cochran current commercial (5:56 a.m., Wednesday). It starts by picturing him in a crowd. Picture must be seven years old. Then, as always, cuts away to his support of Mississippians following Katrina many years ago. He supported Mississippi after Katrina but also strongly supported sweet tea, pecan pie and road trips in the country. Gotta love Thad.
The 'What's McDaniel FOR' group of yahoos (above) need to ask themselves if Thad is even still alive, much less what the hell has he 'done' for Mississippi in the decade since Katrina.
If you people think the 'Tea Party' is a bunch of wild-eyed, far right wingers who have shot their wad, wake up this morning and ask Eric Cantor.
Got another flyer in the mail for McDaniel sent by the
Club for Growth. A PAC basically funded by the Koch
brothers. If you think that the Club For Growth's agenda
is good for Mississippi or the average Mississippian, think
again. It's all about diverting Tax dollars to their pockets
by cutting SS and the like. Wonder how many Club for Growth junkets McDaniel was invited to ?
Unlike Virginia's Eric Cantor, Thad's partner on so-called immigration reform, the "flaming" senator from South Carolina, fails to go down in flames. What happened to the descendants of the South Carolina fire eaters of Secession? I suspect it's the "seniority" meme that seems so entrenched in the Southland. Probably a throwback to the fear of the South that the flood of immigrants from Europe into the North would diminish the influence of the South's representatives in Congress.
Three questions:
1) Where is Eric Cantor?
2) Where is Kay Webber?
3) How much does a basement apartment in Washington rent for?
"If you people think the 'Tea Party' is a bunch of wild-eyed, far right wingers who have shot their wad, wake up"
No one is necessarily saying that, but it's a good way to put it. I would describe them as a political group of misguided individuals led (in Central MS) by a lady who went on the record and stated her belief that women should be denied the right to vote. This same group seems to hold every constitutional amendment irrelevant except for the Second and Tenth, and they would also vote for Satan himself if he were running against a Democrat or a "RINO."
No, 6:03, you wake up. Wake up and realize that you belong to a group that puts it's own misguided ideology (and the Koch brothers and other outside interests) above what's good for Mississippians.
As for Cantor, we will see how his opponent in the primary will do against the Democratic candidate. I would like to be optimistic, but I believe this will backfire for Kentucky Republicans.
If you people think the 'Tea Party' is a bunch of wild-eyed, far right wingers who have shot their wad, wake up this morning and ask Eric Cantor.
Still think they are wild-eyed, far right wingers. In Mississippi, the Tea Party should more accurately be renamed the Toilet Party.
Speaking of Eric Cantor, the campaign of his opponent, Dave Brat, spent $250,000. Eric Cantor's campaign reportedly spent $5 million.
And Henry Olsen thinks Thad Cochran came up short because he ran a little low on campaign cash at the end.
Borrowing on Virginia's Virginia Is for Lovers, I can see it now: South Carolina Is for [Gay] Lovers.
I was not aware prayer ever left school or the right of the State to maintain a well regulated militia had fell into question in Mississippi. Many it's part of the "wasteful spending" y'all are always foaming at the mouth over. Learn something new every day I suppose. Next one of you will get real wacky and say the women folk shouldn't vote, hold authority over men or preach because they don't have a penis. Oh wait......the leader of your wacky party already said that. Carry on. I will add my two cents from the peanut gallery as needed. The whole tea party is on the prayer list. Believe it was the late Bishop G. E. Patterson that said "zeal without knowledge is the most dangerous combination on earth".
TO --- Thad's Elusive Legacy --
Obviously you didn't go through Katrina -- if you had, you would have understood just how much the Cochran power had to do with our recovery (which is still ongoing if you look at the Waterways Bill funding Gulf Coast Waterways which infused $693 MILLION dollars into the Gulf Coast yesterday -- check the Clarion Ledger). This is federal funding which affects those on the Gulf Coast ECONOMICALLY. Without the LEGISLATIVE SUPPORT we'd still be flat on our backs. NY, OH, CA (and 46 other states) would have found MANY reasons to forget MS, in the last few years, and if you think McDaniel will change this when he hits DC, you're naive. Let MS take it on the chin, to prove a point. I think we did that already at Gettysburg -- read your history. That didn't turn out so well for us did it (11th MS).
YOU might want to grow up and realize seniority is not something to malign --- AS A FAMOUS REPUBLICAN PUT IT --
" I want you to know also I will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit for political purposes my opponent's youth and inexperience"
Oh look tea baggers bashing the gays again. You know, the tea party aka the southern baptist church with a few Pentecostal groups mixed in really are the American Taliban. Y'all just wear somewhat better clothes (poly cotton blends are not your friend) and carry covered dishes.
Kingfish - would you consider not posting some of the out and out name calling?
One thing that bothers me about this is that people associate the TEA Party and Chris McDaniel (both together and separately) with libertarianism. The TEA Party's roots were in libertarianism, but the MS party has strayed afar from that. Chris is in tune with them. Good or bad, he and the MS TEA Party believe in a libertarian economic and defense policy and an activist conservative social policy. That's being a 1/2 Libertarian.
I can see why folks who live on the coast or in the Memphis area would be more likely to vote for McDaniel. They have the opportunity to commute across the state line for work each day to our neighboring states that will benefit most from a McDaniel victory. They won't be impacted as much as the voters in the other parts of the state who don't have that option.
7:11, check your sources. No Democrat had the guts to run against the House Majority Leader. Dave Brat is the next Congressman from Virginia's Seventh District.
This is very simple. The voters are deciding whether they want change. The ones who do vote for the challenger, the ones who don't vote for the incumbents. You can talk all day long about how stupid we are, but the votes count the same. Paint Chris McDaniel any way you want, but you can't cover up the fact that he represents change in Washington, and that's what lots of people think we need. They turned out in Virginia yesterday and we'll find out on June 24 if enough of them in Mississippi will step up.
Note to all the folks who are screaming "We need Thad to bring home the bacon". We hear you. Shouting won't help. What we are saying is we believe that when all 50 states send someone like Thad to Washington there won't be any bacon. If you truly believe that the USA can never go broke, no matter how much we spend, then vote for Thad. Please understand that some of us believe the USA can go broke and we are looking at the big picture.
Again, the Coast voted for Cochran so all the theories about why the Coast voted for McDaniel are wrong.
To join the tea party, would one have to liquidate all of their investments in any entity that may profit from the government? If so, would those gains need to be donated to the poor (or maybe to the national office)? Just not sure how it works. Thanks in advance for any info.
Oops. I'm the one who needs to check my sources. Turns out Debbie is talking about their nominee. Sorry...the rest of my post stands.
Well I see from the comments made late into the night that folks know about Cantor being defeated.
The man who beat him did an interview--great read.
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2014/06/11/David-Brat-Interview
Best thing I've read in ages was something this man said in the interview: If you followed the right principles in the first place, you wouldn't find yourself in these problems.
To the Cochran folks on the blog. I do not like what has been/is happening in DC.
I voted against Cochran in round one and I'll vote against him again in round two.
The likes of Thad Cochran is the reason the country is in the shape it is. People know it and it is time for a change. Two days before
the election Cochran ran an ad, to paraphrase, where he said I realize that Obama has led the county down the wrong path the last four years, but Starting Tomorrow!! and throws one finger up in victory. Tomorrow?!
What about the last 40 yrs?
I see the Tea Partiers have a much stronger presence on this site during the hours in which the rest of us are working at our real jobs (as opposed to dressing up like George Washington and standing in a public square to spread ignorant ideas).
8:14; (Thad's Elusive Legacy here). Try to keep up. I'm not decrying Cochran's support of money for Mississippi following Katrina. I'm decrying the fact that it's the only thing his campaign can come up with, that he's done, in the current decade (that's ten years for the yahoos cursing the Tea Party).
If all he has to hang his hat on is his number of years in the Senate and his positive vote for Katrina ten years ago, what the hell?
He is also a liar when he says in his current ad that McDaniel 'said he would not vote for Katrina aid'. McDaniel did not say that and Cochran's puppeteers know he did not say that. They're liars. They're desperate.
The only sensible thing his handlers will do is pull the Cantor-Support-Ad. Or maybe they won't. They've proven to be pretty ineffective thus far.
Everyone points to the 3:1 ratio as a sole reason why Thad should be voted back into office.
Thad has little to do with the 3:1 ratio we receive in Mississippi. We grab that federal money based on enrolled citizens in federal programs (Medicaid, Food stamps, etc.)... that money will still fall to Mississippi regardless of who is in Washington. My point: our poverty and health is what gets us a 3:1 ratio, not Thad Cochran. Almost half of the MS budget is for welfare FEDERAL programs, not Cochran earmarks. Please stop ignorantly using the 3:1 ratio to fear people into voting for Cochran.
Secondly, people point to Cochran as the savior for jobs in Mississippi. Without Thad's deal-cutting and earmarks, we would struggle.
The reality is, Thad has been in Washington for 42 years. How have those "deals" and "earmarks" affected poverty in the state? Not at all.
It's time for a change. Thad is a great person, but we need bold leadership and creative ways to make federal programs efficient. Is Chris the answer? Only time will tell. If he's not, we can vote him out. One thing is certain: After decades of work, Thad is not the answer.
One of the early calls into C-SPAM's Washington Journal on the defeat of Cantor was from California, comparing Thad Cochran to Cantor, claiming they both say one thing to the public and then go behind closed doors and do the reverse.
Thad, like Cantor, has "Gone Foreign."
Wager-1: Cochran will retire within 1.5 years due to health or family reasons.
Wager-2: Haley Barbour will be appointed in his place.
Wager-3: Gregg Harper as a possible replacement is a carefully crafted ruse.
"How have those "deals" and "earmarks" affected poverty in the state?"
For the person willing to take opportunity and work to make the most of it, I would say it has likely had considerable impact. For the person desiring to do nothing more than sit and collect, it has done nothing.
You can divide government spending into two basic categories for this level of discussion. There are considerable differences in those, whether the McDaniel/MS tea part faction want to acknowledge those differences or not.
12:37,
I don't think I made my point very clear. Yes, Thad brings home money to Mississippi, and yes some people don't work in Mississippi. Those two points are both evident.
But Thad has not taken any strong stances to reform government programs. THOSE are the burdens on our small state. On the federal level, I want to see someone willing to make the VA, Medicaid, food stamp programs more efficient and effective. I don't want someone abusing a broken system for the sake of sending money home.
Every state has a Thad Cochran, and that's the problem.
I never in my wildest dreams would think I'd the Mississippi Republican Party fighting internally over the subject of reducing federal spending. It's irresponsible, at the least, and hypocritical, at best.
Ladies and gentlemen, we are witnessing the death of the Republican Party. You have yourselves to thank.
Haley for Senate! Uh NOT!!!!!! I am so tired of hearing about TC and Katrina ! hell that was years ago he doesn't have any accomplishments since then? barber took the credit for that for years and this is the first time I have heard thad take credit.....just marketing. this Katrina money was OUR money not free money! you paid for that not tc! and we are still paying for it with our insurance premiums. Run the stats> 1) number of applications initially submitted for katrina funding? wasn't the number of applicants hurting for the funding the justification to get a larger portion of funding into Mississippi? 2) out of the number of applications initially submitted how many people actually received the funding? could have been minimal? so there would be a big balance of monopoly money? 3) and where did the balance go? '....hhmmmm. 4) what agency housed the money initially? 5) then what agency housed the money next (as the authority moved several times) and was there a third party firm from out of state involved? Oh no of course not! now why would we pay a third party firm from out of state to help manage our Katrina funds? ......and where did the balance go? well didn't one particular contractor get a head start and make millions and didn't this particular contractor ......oops I'm saying too much sorry I lost control there for a minute. 'Cuz I'm not one to gossip. Oh how easily we forgive and forget.
12:59,
I'd like to see those areas addressed as well. However, for that to ever effectively happen, it will have to be the focus of the guy (or gal) who holds the office of president.
And, although I'm not a member of the Republican Party, I think you'll find a consensus among Republicans when it comes to the need to reduce federal spending, no matter which candidate they support in this primary.
The difference seems to be, one group gives the impression of wanting to put on a blindfold and start swinging an ax. The reality is, neither candidate is "the answer" most folks are looking for long term. One will maintain the status quo, while my opinion is the other will make things considerably worse for our state.
Reply to 11:50 - I am happy that you did not loose your job when the socialists came into power. Unfortunately, millions of us did. Perhaps if it had happened to you, you would better understand why we think that having a nice old grandfather as senator; One who gives the socialists more spending money when they ask for it and allows them to operate with NO budget is not acceptable.
2:08, I enjoyed giggling at your comment so much, I had to read it 2 times. Yea, both candidates are for reducing spending. yea, uh, right. and one maintains and the other is just horrible. BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Added to the very long list of why I’ll not support Cochran: Why would a republican ask the democrats to cross over and vote for him AND at the same time, turn and tell voters that he—the one begging dems to vote for him---has the best chance of defeating the dem candidate in November?
Never have grasped that.
1:38, the republican party is just fine. Hopefully, what dies off is the little old piece of cancer that turned the republican party into Obama's republicans.
The Senate and House seats are the peoples' seats.
"when the socialists came into power"
That's a great example of the paranoid and vitriolic tone that renders you incapable of winning an election on a national scale. Keep it up.
I believe this clip from South Park suits you well. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=768h3Tz4Qik
I would feel more sorry for you if you weren't trying to send a complete nut-job to represent our state in the Senate.
I would feel more sorry for you if you weren't trying to send a complete nut-job to represent our state in the Senate.
I feel sorry for your thinking that anyone actually gives a damn what your anonymous ass has written.
"1:38, the republican party is just fine. Hopefully, what dies off is the little old piece of cancer that turned the republican party into Obama's republicans."
Speaking of Obama, the 2012 election shows that while Republicans make up a majority of this state (as of right now), it is not a large majority. 44% of the state voted democrat while only 55% voted republican.
That means it would really only take about 6% of the voting population to make a switch for the Republican Party to become substantially less powerful even here in Mississippi. That's not a lot of people needed to make that happen.
Think you really want to alienate the more moderate voters with a Tea Party takeover? With Mississippi's numbers, it wouldn't take too many of us moderates crossing over for that to blow up right in your face.
@ 10:08 You post is based on a...well...falsehood. The amount of the the budget to pay the national debt is not 40%. Federal outlays to pay for interest on the debt in FY 2013 was 6.23%. This is the kind of crap the talk radio people tell the ignorant people off whom they make millions. Beck and Hannity pour lie after lie on their confused racist audience. The percentage of the debt is actually lower than it was in most of the 90s. http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2013/10/09/5-facts-about-the-national-debt-what-you-should-know/
3:11
The really funny part is people like you who look to South Park for points to make. You do realize that is a cartoon, right? Talk about a nut-job. Pathetic.
The $3/$1 stat is not about money to the state government, but federal funds spent in the state, and it is not mostly for poor people. One thing the Republicans did cut when they got Congress back in the 2010 elections is they stopped the Census Bureau from publishing how much is spent in every state and what it is spent on. In FY10, the last year of the report, Mississippi received $31.4 billion from the federal government.
$9.8 billion of that came from retirement & disability benefits - Social Security was more than $7 billion; SSI, VA benefits, military & federal retirement are the rest;
$8 billion from other direct payments, Medicare was $4.8 billion; EITC $972 million; SNAP $846 million; Ag assistance $516 million; student aid 465 million.
$7.9 billion in grants to state, local, etc.: HHS, mostly Medicaid $4.9 billion, Transportation $661 million, Education $633 million, Ag grants $522 million.
$2.66 billion federal procurement and FY 2010 was actually a down year because two ship contracts were delayed because Northrop Grumman was in the process of spinning off the shipbuilders as a separate company.
$3 billion in federal wages & salaries in MS; $2 billion Defense & $1 billion non-Defense (mostly Post Office & VA).
I got an email from the Cochran camp this morning. It said Ron Paul's endorsement of Chris McDaniel signals that McDaniel is going to cut government programs in a "damaging" and "devastating" way. It then says, "There's a smarter way to cut government spending..."
Oh really? Is Thad actually saying he's for cutting federal spending, just not the McDaniel way? If so, what's his plan to cut federal spending? Thad, the fiscal conservative - yea, good luck on that. Besides, what's the value of his seniority if Cochran is now a budget hawk?
One more thing. Is "fiscal restraint" the message being delivered by his campaigners sent to all those African-American churches? What about the former Benny Thompson staffer hired by Cochran just last week? Is he talking to all those Delta churches he's been visiting about responsible budget cuts? This is what the Cochran campaign was telling black Democrats just three days ago: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZCO4oFNiWtE
Thad's "smarter way" is code for not cutting government spending at all.
311p. Hilarious! do you often use cartoons as your resource? and is South Park your bookmarked "fav"? Hhmmmm you remind me of a gov't consultant I used to work with. but he went bye bye. we just could not relate and he was definitely overpaid. we found that we could get SouthPark free.
is Mississippi still the #1 state in obesity? and what do we rank in food stamps? do you see a connection? just left Kroger behind a food stamp obese recipient.....Cheetos, chitlins, potato chips, fruit punch, Sunny D, fatback, hot dogs, with the ebt card and case of beer and candy bars with cash. parked in disabled parking in her Cadillac Escalade. if restrictions were mandated to purchase healthy foods we would not have to pay for the healthcare these obese people. if healthy items were barcoded as such it would be easy to ring up and omit the items that are not. the taxpayer has a right to tell people what to eat since I am feeding them, paying for their healthcare, and that down payment they paid on that Escalade with their tax refund in which they never paid in and I do not understand how that works. but they gotta keep 'em happy so they'll get the vote. I am a business owner and it is difficult to find employees to work full time or part time at minimum wage. they don't show up to work because they tell me it will impact their benefits so I end up pulling the workload of employees that are 30 years younger than me. I have not written one payroll check for a full 40 hours for one employee because of government benefits! its like feeding birds in your backyard as long as the food is there and no effort they will come but if you remove it they will have to go dig for the worms. this will never change. but we can thank our government for that. politicians do not understand the real world - especially career politicians! that is the reason we need to vote old blood and Incumbents out! they have done us no good! do you really want your future generations to have to deal with all this debt?
7:00. Geez, some of us really struggle with our reading comprehension don't we?!?
Here was the point I was trying to make: the tone in 2:40's post is typical of why the Tea Party radicals have absolutely zero appeal to around 80% of the general population.
Why did I allude to South Park? Was I citing the show to to prove my point? The answer to that is a resounding no! I was merely comparing him to the redneck characters on the show. It's called metaphor - more of a way of saying "this is what you look like to the rest of us."
I would have thought that spelling everything out would not have been necessary, but unfortunately, I forgot to adjust my expectations for the McDaniel voters out there.
Bless your heart.
This is some Very Interesting reading. The last time I remember someone running "On CHANGE" hasn't worked out to well for the people I know. Yes, it has changed but we have more people on EVERY GOVERNMENT PROGRAM IMAGINABLE, MORE ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS,MORE CRIME,MORE HUNGRY,MORE SICK & ELDERLY who don't get their deserved Medication and Treatment. We have fewer Tax Payers, less Revenue to assist State and Local Governments while sending certain residents of the White House on more,longer,more expensive-Tax Payer funded Vacations-with more Aides,Support Staff, staying at the most luxurious facilities for People as well as their Pets. It takes numbers to win votes, it takes Statesmanship to work across aisles-Party Lines to Win Votes on any Legislation in DC. I've endured all the CHANGE I can tolerate as a Taxpayer, I've endured all the Grand Standing I can tolerate while not working across the Aisle with both Democrats and Independants, I've tolerated all the un-Statesman like conduct that I can. I'll never vote for a Person who blantantly states he'll not work across the aisle, not ever bend on the issues, not ever vote for a Tax Increase under any circumstances. As with the Turtle on the fence post-someone had to help it get up there-America has to go back to Statesmanship-Compromise-Working together for the good of our Country-and NOW IS THE TIME. No, I don't agree with everything TC has done-but I believe we have to consider the atmosphere that has been prevalent in DC since that CHANGE ARRIVED. We are more divided now that at any point in our Country's History--all brought about by someone who is the Schoolyard Bully -- because he thinks he doesn't need to Compromisse on the Issues,doesn't need to work with the other Party,doesn't think he needs to have Open Conversations with those who think differently on Issues. Heck with the CHANGE-let's do better at working together and for America and Mississippi.
Amen, 8:33. Completely agree!
Today, Politico reports about Republican establisment support for Thad Cochran. The article begins, "A thousand miles from Mississippi, Republican lobbyists, long-time senators and fundraisers are raising a glass – and raising money – to save their man, Thad Cochran, from the tea party." "Washington is coming out in force to stare down an insurgent tea partier Chris McDaniel." "Cochran's inside-the-Beltway backers are well on their way to raising their goal of $1 million."
Say it ain't so. I seem to remember leading up to the June 3 election, Cochran criticizing in thousands and thousands of dollars of television and radio ads McDaniel's out-of-state tea party support.
My how the worm turns.
The reason food stamps don't have nutrition restrictions and why the government doesn't just buy the basics with volume discounts and distribute it is because the farmers and ranchers and chicken and other food processors and manufacturer and grocery chains and Wal-Mart want a voucher system that pays retail prices. SNAP is a USDA agriculture support program under jurisdiction of the Ag committees in Congress. You can't help poor people without cutting corporations in for a windfall. Follow the Medicare and Medicaid money to the drug companies, private hospital chains, equipment manufacturers, nursing homes, etc.
Wager-1: Cochran will retire within 1.5 years due to health or family reasons.
Wager-2: Haley Barbour will be appointed in his place.
Wager-3: Gregg Harper as a possible replacement is a carefully crafted ruse.
You know, I was pooh-poohing the Barbour thing at first, but the more I think about it, the more it makes perfect sense.
Cochran is on the record as not wanting to run again this year, and it's painfully obvious that Gregg Establishment Harper would love to have it. So why didn't they let Thad bow out, and run Harper? If Harper had run a clean campaign, he'd have almost certainly won. Heck I'd have probably voted for him.
The reason is they want Haley... and Haley wouldn't have a PRAYER of winning election. He has too many disillusioned former supporters out there now.
So, I'll decline your wager because I find the odds too far in your favor. But I'll counter with a wager of my own:
Thad's remaining time in office, whatever it is, will be even more inactive and ineffectual than his last 8 years. He has already become a puppet on a string, and soon he won't be cognizant enough to make a decent puppet. It's very sad to see him end a career this way. I like him and voted for him in the past, but his time is over.
Yes, we need to 'consider the atmosphere in Washington in which Thad has to work'. Hell, who do you think created that damned atmosphere? Clue: Those who have been there 20, 30, 40 years.
Atmosphere is another word for culture. Those who live in that bubble cannot survive outside of it and have no clue how to function apart from it. They are disconnected. It's just that simple.
They may take the occasional flight back home to appear at the rodeo (and leave when the lights dim) or tour storm damage or shake hands at church. But they are disconnected from reality. It only takes four years, much less forty.
June 11, 2014 at 8:16 PM
You were, indeed, using a cartoon to illustrate the point that you were unable to make "all on your own". The fact that you sit around mama's house watching your cartoons, eating cheetos, telling yourself just how smart you really are (and wondering why nobody else is able to recognize your intellect) is, well, pathetic. Bless YOUR little heart, child.
Incidentally, Cantor about the low number of Tea Party voters.
June 12 at 8:31, that sounds more like a description of folks who sit around blogging and making tea party youtube videos all day.
huh? maybe he thought he was back at ole miss during his cheerleader days with that other failed cheerleader,trent "you wanna be a fed. judge?" lott?
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2014/06/12/Thad-Cochran-I-Grew-Up-Doing-All-Kinds-Of-Indecent-Things-With-Animals
if McDaniel has "no plan" as some have alleged above, why then are the addled one's handlers so afraid to let the candidates debate?
as it stands now, the media gushes all over the addled one's handlers and surrogates---Haley, Trent, Kirk sims, various Barbour nephews, and God forbid even Gregg Harper (a supreme disappointment which has cost him some votes---he is too dumb to be up there,at least wicker knows enough to keep his trap shut!)
the media needs to get its head outa its collective ass and figure this one out.....QUICKLY
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