Looks like we might get some flooding in Jackson. The National Weather Service issued these statements:
FLOOD STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS 1105 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
..THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN MISSISSIPPI INCLUDES 24 HOURS OF FUTURE RAINFALL... PEARL RIVER AT EDINBURG AFFECTING LEAKE COUNTY PEARL RIVER NEAR CARTHAGE AFFECTING LEAKE COUNTY TUSCOLAMETA CREEK AT WALNUT GROVE AFFECTING LEAKE COUNTY YOCKANOOKANY RIVER NEAR KOSCIUSKO AFFECTING ATTALA COUNTY YOCKANOOKANY RIVER NEAR OFAHOMA AFFECTING LEAKE COUNTY PEARL RIVER AT JACKSON AFFECTING HINDS AND RANKIN COUNTIES PEARL RIVER NEAR ROCKPORT AFFECTING COPIAH AND SIMPSON COUNTIES PEARL RIVER NEAR MONTICELLO AFFECTING LAWRENCE COUNTY PEARL RIVER NEAR COLUMBIA AFFECTING MARION COUNTY SYNOPSIS... HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT IS IN PROGRESS THIS MORNING. RAINFALL FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS ABOVE 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. WITH SATURATED SOILS FROM RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK...THIS COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RIVER AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE THE PEARL RIVER SYSTEM. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTHWARD FROM A STALLED FRONT NEAR THE COAST. AN AREA OF MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING THIS MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF GALVESTON TEXAS WILL TRACK THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THROUGH THE YAZOO DELTA REGION OF MISSISSIPPI. DEEP AND IMPRESSIVE LIFT WILL CREATE A VERY EFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. Warning
Area Forecast Discussion
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1047 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
...HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...
.UPDATE...OUR OVERALL EXPECTATIONS AND CURRENT FORECAST/OUTLOOKS
REMAIN ON TRACK WITH THIS EVOLVING SYSTEM AND POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE WILL BE ON TIMING AND
LOCATION FOR HEAVY PRECIP TODAY...OVERNIGHT EXPECTATIONS FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND SVR STORMS REMAINS THE SAME.
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL OF 1-3 INCHES HAS SET THE STAGE FOR FLOODING AND
FLASH FLOODING LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS ADDITIONAL
RAIN/STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE REGION. TAKING A LOOK AT THE
REST OF THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THE MAIN FORECAST ADJUSTMENT
WILL BE ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL BE FOCUSED AND WHEN THAT IS
EXPECTED. BASED OFF MORNING RADAR TRENDS...THE S 1/3RD OF THE CWA
LOOKS TO REMAIN FREE OF MEANINGFUL PRECIP UNTIL ABOUT 3-4PM. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A FEW FAST MOVING SHOWERS BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. DUE
TO THIS...HAVE PULLED BACK ON THE POPS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THAT
AREA. THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIP THIS MORNING WILL BE ALONG
THE I-20 CORRIDOR. HERE STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING HAS SETUP IN
THE 850-700MB LAYER WITH SIGNIFICANT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ADV
DIRECTED DIRECTLY INTO THAT REGION. WHAT IS SAVING US AT THIS POINT
FROM MUCH FLASH FLOODING IS THE FAST MOVING NATURE OF THE MORE
EFFICIENT RAIN CORES. THIS TRANSIENT NATURE IS KEEPING RAINFALL
RATES IN CHECK FOR NOW. HOWEVER...AS STRONGER DEEP LAYER LIFT DRAWS
CLOSER FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...LOOK FOR A STRONGER CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE STORMS AND MORE EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES. THIS WILL BE
WHEN THE GREATER FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE AND THE RISK
FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL BE HIGHEST (4PM TO 4AM).
INITIALLY...THE BEST LOCATION FOR THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG
I-20...THEN SHIFT A BIT MORE NORTH BY LATER AFTERNOON TO INCLUDE
I-20 AND AREAS TO THE NORTH. THE S/SE WILL GET BACK INTO THE ACTION
THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT WITH THE INCREASING RISK OF TRAINING AND
MULTIPLE STORMS IMPACTING THE SAME AREAS. MORE EFFICIENT RAINFALL
RATES WILL OCCUR AS WELL RESULTING IN MORE ZONES (CORRIDORS) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. OVERALL...EVENT TOTALS FOR THE AREA LOOK TO BE
IN THE 2-5 IN RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6+ INCHES
POSSIBLE.
THE SEVERE WX RISK WILL INCREASE LATER AND BE FOCUSED WHERE THE
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT AND ESTABLISH A WARM SECTOR. LATEST
MODEL TRENDS ARE MORE BULLISH ON A MORE N ORIENTATION OF THE WARM
FRONT. HOWEVER...INTUITION (ALONG WITH 00-06Z HI-RES DATA) SUPPORT
THE WARM FRONT NOT MAKING IT TO I-20. SAME THREATS EXIST...DAMAGING
WINDS AND TORNADOES. DUE TO THE INCREASING WIND FIELDS SUPPORTING
STRONG WIND SHEAR AND SRH VALUES...THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO SUPPORT
A STRONG TORNADO ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY UPPER 60 DEWPTS CAN REACH. THE
STRONG FORCING FROM THE SYSTEM ALSO LEADS TO THIS POTENTIAL. Link
1 comment:
FYI KF 2.9 inches in my near-JA rain gauge since midnight.
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