Jackson Jambalaya

Tomorrow is decision day for Jackson.  Which course will the voters take?  Mayor Chokwe Lumumba's death caught many by surprise.  Will there be more surprises tomorrow? It's the last 24 hour of the campaign.  Social media is aflame with accusations.  Neighborhoods are carpet-bombed with flyers.  Talk radio gets louder.  Deals are cut.  What is a voter to do?   Good thing you came to Jackson Jambalaya as The Kingfish will break down the race for you.

The short nature of this race makes it very interesting.  Candidates are forced to raise money, craft a message, assemble a staff, door-knock, and campaign all on the fly for less than four weeks.  Big difference compared to normal campaigns where such things occur in stages over several months.  Candidates had to grab what ammo and troops they could and run to the battlefield.  It's a good opportunity to see who can perform under pressure.... and who can't.  It's no accident the candidates leading the polls also happen to be those who are best organized. 

The goal is not to win but instead to make the runoff.  Winning the primary means nothing.  Ask Jonathan Lee or Jimmy Houston.  Winning means you get to play another day.  The championship rounds begin Wednesday. Who will be there?  33,000 voted in the 2013 primary and 37,000 in the runoff.  How many will vote tomorrow?

The race is also interesting because of the depth of the field.  Three lawyers, one former principal, a three-term former Mayor, and a State Senator.  Three sit on the city council.  Pretty good talent for such a race.  Billy Powell once told me to look at the candidate's base. Does he have one?  Four candidates are Ward 2: Horhn, Harvey, Priester, Jr., Lumumba, Jr.  Four guys fighting over the same bit of precinct turf.  Thus they have to go elsewhere for their votes.  The Stokes machine is helping Chokwe in Ward 3.  The ward is thus probably part of his base.  Margaret Barrett-Simon has a base in Belhaven and due to her color, Northeast Jackson.  Regina Quinn  does not have much of a base.  She is at a disadvantage because she never won an elected office. She is thus starting from scratch.

Time to review the candidates.

Chokwe Lumumba, Jr.  He has the advantage of running on his father's name and using his father's machine.  There are more than a few city employees who want to keep their jobs and will do whatever it takes to ensure he wins.  He was endorsed last week by District Attorney Robert Schuler Smith.  Other notables such as Dennis Sweet endorsed him.  What is also important is who did not endorse him: Bennie Thompson and Precious Martin.  Bennie Thompson was one of the main reasons Chowke's father won the election last year.  Sort of like when Hannibal found his Numidian cavalry fighting for Rome on the plains of Zama.

Chowke is running on his father's legacy.  He claims he wrote his father's platform.  Mr. Lumumba doesn't have a real resume to promote as he is only 31 years old.  He is a good public speaker but provides very little details on what he will do as Mayor.  He strongly states he will "let the people decide" and use "people power".  Simple slogans and cliches.  It's a way of stating he does not really have a platform.   His father blasted Jonathon Lee last year at the debate for not knowing how a city council operates.  The ultimate irony is that Chokwe's son comes closer to Jonathan Lee in that respect than he does his father.  He doesn't offer any specifics on crime, education, or economic development.  It seems many voters do not care about such things nor have his opponents attacked these weaknesses.  He is also pulling in a great deal of out of state money.  That seems to have escaped notice as well.

Harvey Johnson, Jr.  Name ID is everything in a short race.  Harvey's best strength is everyone knows Harvey.  Harvey's biggest weakness is everyone knows Harvey.  Voters clearly wanted a change last  year.  Voters often said they thought the city was going in the wrong direction as the race took shape in 2013.  Harvey refused to change and often said the city was on the right path.  His stubbornness put him in third place.  The big question is what has Harvey learned from his defeat. The relationship between he and the business community was always strained.  Crime was a problem.  Harvey owns the school board.  They are his appointments but for one member.   Harvey is often unfairly knocked as a racist.  He may not ask for white votes but he had no qualms about hiring white people such as Dan Gaillet or Rick Hill.  The Jackson Advocate crowd often charged he was not black enough for their tastes.  The big question is will Harvey change or is it more of the same.

Harvey is not a quitter.  He's lost three times.... and won three times. He came in third last year and those who beat him are not in the race.  He knocks on doors every day from 5-8 PM.  He worked Plantation Boulevard and the surrounding area for six hours while everyone was campaigning at the St. Paddy's Day parade.  Many forget he did better than expected in Northeast Jackson in the 2009 primary.  Half of Northeast Jackson is black and Harvey polls well in that area.  Harvey has a machine.  They know what to do and they have been in this situation several times.  Don't count him out as he is probably running in third place right now if polls are to be believed.  He has not attacked Chowke and that will probably hurt him on election day.

John Horhn.   The State Senator has one strength that draws envy from most candidates- he can raise money.  Senator Horhn raised the most money in 2009 and $104,000 in this election.  Economic development is his mantra, as he brags about his record in the legislature.  He claims ownership of the one-percent sales tax increase.  Harvey's former campaign manager is at the helm of this venture.  The Senator is likeable and doesn't play the race card.  He met with the Governor to discuss the jail last week and organized a crime summit last year.

However, Senator Horhn does have one huge albatross around his neck: his DUI arrest last year after the crime summit.  What hurts the Senator is not the fact that he was charged with a DUI. More than a few politicians have been convicted of drinking while driving and still won elections.  Senator Horhn faces the problem of what he did during the arrest.  The police report states he threatened the cops with the loss of their jobs, tried to throw his weight around, and generally made an ass of himself even when the police tried to take him home.  It's a hard mountain to climb, but the Senator is willing to scale those heights.  The problem is his efforts will probably fall very short on election day.

Melvin Priester, Jr.  The golden child.  The pedigreed candidate.  Two parents who are well-respected Harvard grads and attorneys.  Now we are talking about the elite in the Black community.  He brags of being a graduate of Jackson Public Schools even though he went to St. Andrews until tenth grade.  Graduated from Harvard.  Stanford Law School.  Mr. Priester is probably one of the most intelligent candidates to run for Mayor in Jackson.  He has many good ideas and has a reputation for responding to constituents.  He sees them more as customers instead of just someone to visit every four years. 

However, he is often seen as arrogant and at times, a mama's boy.  It takes more than a high IQ to run a city.  He is the Bennie machine's chosen one.  Precious Martin spent half of his radio show promoting young Melvin.  The endorsement of Bennie and Precious will help him in the Black community while it drives others crazy.  The knock against him in the Black community is he thinks he is too good for them.  He often looks down at his notes during debates and speaks as if he is reading off a grocery list of items.  He and Chowke share the same problem: thin resumes and little in the way of life experiences.  Running the city of Jackson is not a research project and should not be treated as such.

The problem facing Mr. Priester is timing.  Sources say he planned on running for Mayor in 2017 but for the Mayor dying.  That is the thing about death, it doesn't cooperate.  It doesn't ask what your plans are.  It just does its thing and leaves you to pick up the pieces.  Just as the death of Doug Anderson wrecked the plans of the Graham machine, so did death do the same to those of Melvin Priester, Jr.  Whoever wins this election will win re-election if he or she does a half-decent job of running Jackson.  If the winner actually does a real good job, forget any serious opposition in 3 years.  Priester knows this and thus had to run now and hope for the best.  He didn't have much choice and one can not blame him for running when his seat is protected.  Mr. Priester is also the victim of a vicious smear campaign.  He doesn't deserve it and the people conducting it should be tarred, beaten, and then run out of town.*

Tony Yarber.  Sitting councilman.  Former principal.  Pastor.  He is a powerful speaker. Has the looks and cuts an imposing figure as a candidate at times.  He has done well in the "debates".   He has a base: Ward 6.  He has had a good staff.  They are veterans, experienced, and some are street-smart.  Jonathan Lee's was young, had a college feel to them.  The same can't be said about Team Tony.  He isn't afraid to take on Jackson Public Schools and says so.  He has been aggressive since the opening of the campaign.  One can tell he must be doing well in the polls as the attacks on Mr. Yarber have become more frequent and ferocious in the lasts 72 hours.  This doesn't happen if you are last in the polls. 

The Bennie/Precious machine is firing the same shells they fired at Lee last year.  Rankin County Republicans. Uncle Tom.  He is in the pay of the Republicans.  Flyers are circulated against him. Precious spent 15 minutes trashing him on the radio and less than two minutes each on the rest of the candidates.   He didn't even mention Regina or Margaret.  Several polls show Mr. Yarber in the lead but polls have been wrong.   It doesn't help that he has not offered many specific solutions in the debate.  However, he is a skilled enough speaker that it may not matter.   Mr. Yarber takes on the race question directly. He simply but firmly says he is asking for their votes and will be offended if they do not vote for him. Would that more candidates would do such a thing. Negative attacks are used for one reason: they work.  It remains whether to be seen if Mr. Yarber can get into the runoff. 

Margaret Barrett-Simon.  32 years on the city council.  It doesn't matter why she is running for Mayor. All that matters is she is.  She does know what a city council meeting looks like, although her attendance record could be better.  Margaret has a nice personality and wasn't afraid to take on Mayor Lumumba at times.  She claims a long list of economic development projects she supported. She has a base in Belhaven and her supporters have been working the white but compact precincts of 32,33, and 34 (Hi, Dorsey).  Whites still make up twenty percent of the voters in Jackson.  The white vote can make a difference in a diverse field such as this one.  It is important to remember she is a Democrat and can count on some black votes.  She won her seat in a majority black district. 

Mrs. Simon also faces several challenges. Her strength is she is white. Her weakness is she is white.  She might make it into the runoff but she will get clobbered in the next round. Her performance in the debates has been nothing short of weak.  Her best chance is to face Harvey Johnson.  There is a large portion of voters who want to see anyone but Harvey.  That might be her best chance, but probably would not be enough, as this city is dominated by all things racial.  The Chokwe people won't forgive her for opposing the Mayor.  The Bennie people will swing behind him if Junior does not make the runoff.  Everyone knows the plan.  Racial politics at its worst. Bennie ads. Klan flyers.  Fear-mongering of the worst kind.  Such will happen if she faces Priester or Lumumba.  Yarber and Harvey won't play that crap, as they will just roll out the machine, work the precincts, and surge to victory.

Regina Quinn. Long time attorney for Jackson State University. She waited to jump out of the gate and took her time putting together a staff. She cites the general themes used by most of the candidates: fight crime, bring jobs to Jackson, rebuild the infrastructure.  She's raised the lowest amount of money and frankly, the short term of the race probably hurt her more than other candidates.  She is a good public speaker. No base, little money, and no strong platform.  She will probably come in sixth or seventh.

This is my analysis of the race.  Tomorrow should be fun.  I will live-blog the election tomorrow night.  Prediction?  Lumumba v. Yarber and Harvey has a good chance of making that runoff as well.