Wednesday, October 14, 2020

C19 Update: Decline in Cases Halts

The Mississippi State Department of Health reported 876 new cases of the Wuhan virus yesterday as well as 25 new deaths. The total number of cases is 106,817. The virus has caused 3,140 deaths. Nursing home deaths comprise 40% of overall Covid-19 deaths in Mississippi. There are 90,577 recoveries. More information and a complete list of infected counties can be found at the MSDH website. The Rt factor is 0.86, lowest in the country.


The big chart flattened after increasing for a few days.


Anonymous said...

moving on up again! so..mask mandate monday?

Anonymous said...

Thanks, Saban.

Anonymous said...

Rt is wrong. Click on the data on the Mississippi chart and the last regular update on positive cases was September 26. Their data scraper must not have been updated for changes to the MSDH webpage.

Looks like the fall surge is about to kick off.

Anonymous said...

Can’t wait to go the fair in the county with the largest number of cases!

Anonymous said...

@5:48, good catch. If anyone wants to report the issue, the developers are on github:

Anonymous said...

I mentioned several post ago RT wasn’t right. Before the change on DOH site we were at a 1.02 and our daily numbers are steadily climbing since then.

Anonymous said...

I ain't afraid of no virus!

Kingfish said...

Oh really? The most recent stat on that website for Mississippi was October 12.

Anonymous said...

Look at all the missing and incorrect days of data over the last few weeks here:

Anonymous said...

KF, go here and look at the bar graph charts for positive tests. The only days with data since 9/26 is 9/28 and 10/05. They are updating the Rt number with a bunch of null data points.

Calm Down said...

Anyone remember way back a month ago when the IMHE told us to expect 410,000 deaths by the end of the year? And the media breathlessly told us to panic even more?

Today, they have cut that number to 321,000, that's almost 50% less deaths.

They, and the media, are absolutely worthless.

Anonymous said...

If it's using daily tests from Mississippi in the formula, it's going to be off. Our total tests (MSDH and private) haven't been updated for 10 days now, and they adjusted to only giving testing updates weekly last month.

Anonymous said...

The virus is here to stay. Even after a vaccine is developed it will still be around. STOP with the daily count, we can’t stay huddled in our homes forever with no human contact. We have to learn to live with this virus by taking precautions that we feel are appropriate.

Anonymous said...

So I'm guessing we all gonna die is back on? Scardey cats. Need everyone positive, but will never happen. May need to have Covid parties somewhat akin to the Pox Parties of old. Yeah some may die, but that's life and may be needed to get some level of immunity as a good number will never get vaccinated. Before you start bitching about I need to get infected, I was, along with the missus.

Jacksun said...

Fauci said this morning that the the herd immunity concept of just letting the virus rip through our population is “nonsense” and “ridiculous “ because of the sickness and death it will leave in its wake. Estimates are that herd immunity would create conservatively a million to a million and a half deaths. The longer that kind of nonsense prevails, the longer it will take to get this country’s economy on the mend. Yet Scot Atlas and other quacks continue to spew misinformation about a dangerous virus. We should not tolerate it. I don’t.

Anonymous said...

The "Rt" isn't an absolute number, it is a calculation based and built upon assumptions/guesses, so it could be said that it is never or always "correct." Either way, it is largely meaningless as an absolute metric of COVID-19 for the average person. Arguing over its "correctness" is arguing that the underlying _assumptions_ of whoever modeled whatever Rt are better - not more correct - than another set of assumptions.

Here is an excerpt from a preprint paper (credit to K. Linka, M. Peirlinck, and E. Kuhl) about the subject in the EU:

"We model the epidemiology of the COVID-19 outbreak using an SEIR model with four compartments, the susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered populations, governed by a set of ordinary differential equations, see Appendix,
S˙ = −β S I /N
E˙ = +β S I /N − α E
˙I = + α E − γ I
R˙ = + γ I.
Here N = S + E + I + R is the total population. The transition rates between the four compartments, β, α, and γ, are inverses of the contact period B = 1/β, the latent period A = 1/α, and the infectious period C = 1/γ. We interpret the latency rate α and the infectious rate γ as disease-specific for COVID-19, and assume that they are constant across all 27 countries of the European Union. We interpret the contact rate β = β(t) as behavior specific, and assume that it is different for each country and can vary in time to reflect the effect of societal and political actions. For easier interpretation, we express the contact rate β(t) = R(t)/C in terms of the time-varying effective reproduction number R(t). For the effective reproduction number, we make an ansatz of hyperbolic tangent form,

R(t) = R0 − 1/2[1+tanh([t −t∗]/T)][R0 −Rt].

This ansatz ensures a smooth transition from the basic reproduction number R0 at the beginning of the outbreak to the current reproduction number Rt under travel restrictions and lockdown, where t∗ is the adaptation time and T is the transition time."

Note the use of the word "assume" and the use of an "ansatz." If you don't know what the latter term is and what it means, all the more reason you shouldn't be putting a lot of reliance on "Rt numbers."

Anonymous said...

Government statistics are always DAMN LIES.

Calm Down said...


Fauci also said that if you didn't have symptoms, it'd be fine to take a cruise. In March.

Fauci has lost any credibility as a neutral arbiter. He has an agenda and that agenda is clear.

Don't live your life in fear.

Jacksun said...

10:16: Fauci’s agenda is the health of American people. If he doesn’t fit the spin around wishful factless thinking, that’s not his fault.

Anonymous said...

Fauci is ready to transform Covid-19 from a plandemic into a billion dollar industry just like he did with HIV/AIDS.

They have been telling us for a decade that overuse of antibiotics and antibacterial cleaners would lead to a superbug. Now that we have more than quadrupled our use of hand sanitizers and wipes, get ready for super staph, super ecoli, and super salmonella.

Cloth masks and social distancing are going to be the least of our worries in the next decade. There are rumors of global food security issues and more extreme weather due to the ongoing effects of Grand Solar Minimum. The GSM is what gave us a record year of tropical cyclones.

If you can't sense the doom and smell the death in the air, you have lost all touch with nature.

Jacksun said...

10:53: Take a chill pill and check back with us in the morning.

Anonymous said...

@Jacksun, you WILL tolerate it because I’m not living in your nanny-state, masked up, chip me and call me a robot, please-government-save-me play world based on media horse shit anymore. Nor are a lot of Mississippians. This is America, we are Americans and Americans value rights over perceived safety. Harden up boy.

Anonymous said...

Lay off the chill pills and try to remember what it felt like to see empty shelves in every nation for the first time in modern history.

Anonymous said...

11:17AM wrote, "Harden up boy."

I'll bet that is something you say a lot...and even hear once every 5 or 10 years if you're really lucky.

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Trollfest '07 was such a success that Jackson Jambalaya will once again host Trollfest '09. Catch this great event which will leave NE Jackson & Fondren in flames. Othor Cain and his band, The Black Power Structure headline the night while Sonjay Poontang returns for an encore performance. Former Frank Melton bodyguard Marcus Wright makes his premier appearance at Trollfest singing "I'm a Sweet Transvestite" from "The Rocky Horror Picture Show." Kamikaze will sing his new hit, “How I sold out to da Man.” Robbie Bell again performs: “Mamas, don't let your babies grow up to be Bells” and “Any friend of Ed Peters is a friend of mine”. After the show, Ms. Bell will autograph copies of her mug shot photos. In a salute to “Dancing with the Stars”, Ms. Bell and Hinds County District Attorney Robert Smith will dance the Wango Tango.

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Note: Security provided by INS