The hot topic right now is whether schools reopen. Understandable because kids needs to be in school but no one wants to see families suffer as Covid-19 rages across Mississippi. Science Magazine reported some encouraging news last month about children going to school during the pandemic. The magazine stated:
It was time, a growing chorus said, to bring children back to school.
By early June, more than 20 countries had done just that. (Some others, including Taiwan, Nicaragua, and Sweden, never closed their schools.) It was a vast, uncontrolled experiment.
Some schools imposed strict limits on contact between children, while others let them play freely. Some required masks, while others made them optional. Some closed temporarily if just one student was diagnosed with COVID-19; others stayed open even when multiple children or staff were affected, sending only ill people and direct contacts into quarantine....
When Science looked at reopening strategies from South Africa to Finland to Israel, some encouraging patterns emerged. Together, they suggest a combination of keeping student groups small and requiring masks and some social distancing helps keep schools and communities safe, and that younger children rarely spread the virus to one another or bring it home. But opening safely, experts agree, isn’t just about the adjustments a school makes. It’s also about how much virus is circulating in the community, which affects the likelihood that students and staff will bring COVID-19 into their classrooms.
“Outbreaks in schools are inevitable,” says Otto Helve, a pediatric infectious disease specialist at the Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare. “But there is good news.” So far, with some changes to schools’ daily routines, he says, the benefits of attending school seem to outweigh the risks—at least where community infection rates are low and officials are standing by to identify and isolate cases and close contacts....
Several studies have found that overall, people under age 18 are between one-third and one-half as likely as adults to contract the virus, and the risk appears lowest for the youngest children. The reason remains the subject of intense study. But the town of Crépy-en-Valois, home to 15,000 people on the northern outskirts of Paris, provides some confirmation that younger age reduces risk of infection—and transmission.
When two high school teachers developed minor respiratory symptoms in early February, no one suspected COVID-19. It was cold and flu season, and health officials still assumed the novel coronavirus was mostly confined to China. It wasn’t until 25 February, after one of their contacts was hospitalized in Paris, that the teachers realized they had been infected with SARS-CoV-2. For at least 12 days before the start of winter break on 14 February, and before France instituted precautionary measures, the virus had been spreading freely at the school.
Arnaud Fontanet, an epidemiologist at the Pasteur Institute, and his colleagues started an investigation in Crépy-en-Valois in late March to see whether they could piece together the virus’ reach in the town and its schools. In the high school, antibody testing showed that 38% of pupils, 43% of teachers, and 59% of nonteaching staff had been infected. (By then, several people associated with the school had been hospitalized with COVID-19 complications.) In six elementary schools, they found a total of three children who had caught the virus, likely from family members, and then attended school while infected. But, as far as the researchers could tell, those younger children didn’t pass the virus on to any close contacts....
“It’s still a bit speculative,” says Fontanet, who shared results from the high school on 23 April and from the elementary schools on 29 June, both on the preprint server medRxiv. But high school students “have to be very careful. They have mild disease, but they are contagious.” Children younger than 11 or 12, on the other hand, “probably don’t transmit very well. They are close to each other in schools, but that is not enough” to fuel spread. At the same time, scientists note that children have more contacts than adults, especially at school, which could offset the lower odds they will spread the pathogen.
Other outbreaks also suggest that elementary school pupils pose a smaller threat than older students. Among the worst schoolwide outbreaks was at Gymnasium Rehavia, a middle and high school in Jerusalem, where 153 students and 25 staff were infected in late May and early June. An outbreak at a New Zealand high school before that country’s shutdown infected 96 people, including students, teachers, staff, and parents. In contrast, a neighboring elementary school saw few cases.
But the picture is still blurry. Another Israeli outbreak was in an elementary school in Jaffa, with 33 students and five staff members affected. Across the globe, an elementary school classroom in Trois-Rivières, Canada, had nine of 11 students infected after one contracted the virus in the community.
Other data come from day care centers: In many countries, they stayed open for children of essential workers, and outbreaks appeared rare. Two flares in Canadian day cares—one in Toronto, and one outside of Montreal—led to temporary closures. In Texas, where overall cases have skyrocketed, at least 894 preschool staff and 441 children across 883 facilities have tested positive, according to news reports. That’s up from 210 total cases just a few weeks ago..... Rest of article.
How long before Science Magazine changes its tune as the pediatricians did after the teachers' unions kneecapped them?
16 comments:
My take is that if we can keep the class sizes small, keep the students in the same room all day, mandate masks for all students and staff, and allow for the teachers to maintain their distance then it can be relatively safe.
Now how do you think that is going to work here? Dr. Dobbs said quite a few schools plans were nothing more than business as usual. The MHSAA and SEC are pushing ahead with competitive sports right now. Many pictures of packed hallways and classes standing in close proximity with no masks.
If we can ensure the procedures in the article are followed scrupulously then we should certainly give it a try. The reality, particularly in the relatively ignorant South, is quite a bit different.
we still have very high community transmission....
the premise here is that around the world, most nations have figured out how to live with this. We refuse to do what is necessary in the name of 'freedom'...
May data. And weak as hell to begin with. “It’s still a bit speculative,”
"as far as the researchers could tell," .”
"Children younger than 11 or 12, on the other hand, “PROBABLY don’t transmit very well. They are close to each other in schools, but that is not enough” to fuel spread. At the same time, scientists note that children have more contacts than adults, especially at school, which could offset the lower odds they will spread the pathogen."
That's some really impressive "science" there, eh?
ISRAEL? Let's see: "Confident it had beaten the coronavirus and desperate to reboot a devastated economy, the Israeli government invited the entire student body back in late May.
Within days, infections were reported at a Jerusalem high school, which quickly mushroomed into the largest outbreak in a single school in Israel, possibly the world."
The virus rippled out to the students’ homes and then to other schools and neighborhoods, ultimately infecting hundreds of students, teachers and relatives.
Other outbreaks forced hundreds of schools to close. Across the country, tens of thousands of students and teachers were quarantined.
Israel’s advice for other countries?
“They definitely should not do what we have done,” said Eli Waxman, a professor at the Weizmann Institute of Science and chairman of the team advising Israel’s National Security Council on the pandemic.
“It was a major failure.”
The difference: Israel at the time had 100 new cases a day. We are averaging 60,000 A day. 60000 vs 100. And, no, we are not 600 times bigger.
Fools rush in where angels fear to tread. Disappointed.
Sure, there are possibilities outlined by science but the problem is human-nature always screws it up. Everything from people pulling their masks down to talk to people wearing them under their noses. This whole effort is lost on a lot of stupid people and as long as that's the case, all the science in existence won't help.
Let's do like Japan, Taiwan, and S.Korea. But of course we must adjust for our diversity. But honestly I'm not sending kids back to public school. I've found an online solution that is better than any public schools in Mississippi. I will never subject my children to a dysfunctional Mississippi classroom ever again. And they will be going to university in Asia or Europe since our institutions of higher learning, barely have standards any more.
You know we are all going to die from this, so shut down and have a big ass party.
Lets follow the same protocol we used during the H1N1 Swine Flu pandemic...
If we closed bars and restaurants and keep schools open, we will be just fine. Nine million Californians between 1-18 years old and zero deaths in that age group.
4:21 If COVID could be kept limited to those under the age of 18 then everything would be fine. Unfortunately it is a highly contagious disease that causes horrific complications and death among those who are older and who have underlying medical issues.
Can you figure out a way for the school kids to teach themselves and also not go home to parents and grandparents, because that is the only way you can limit the discussion of COVID issues to a particular age group.
Keep the Bars open and close the schools. The scared teaches need somewhere to go drinking.
You lost me at "Science".
"When _Science_ looked at reopening strategies from South Africa to Finland..."
And when the shit hit the, er, Finns due to that strategy:
"HELSINKI, Aug 5 (Reuters) - Finland plans to reintroduce a recommendation to work from home whenever possible just days after dropping it, due to a rise in COVID-19 cases, the minister in charge of managing the epidemic said on Wednesday.
Health authorities said earlier on Wednesday that 29 new cases had been recorded over 24 hours, raising the seven-day total to 98 from 52 in the previous seven days.
'The rise in infections gives reason to consider continuing remote working ...where it is possible,' Minister of Social Affairs and Health Aino-Kaisa Pekonen wrote on Twitter, adding she had asked for official guidelines to be updated accordingly.
The recommendation in favour of remote working had ended at the end of July. New infections remained very low throughout June and July, allowing Finns to enjoy their summer holiday season in relative security but prompting some to flout social distancing rules."
In related news, elected dumbas...er, officials throughout the US said, "Aw, shit, all sorts of countries done been opening up. We gots at least 15 minutes of proof-damned-positive that...wait, what? They's shuttin' back down 'cause of prolapsin'? Them skeered Eurofaggots! Anyways, that don't matter..them people are Eur-RO-peen socialcommies, they ain't 'murcans! OPEN THE SCHOOLS! OPEN THE BARS! Hydroxacloroxaquilt, and vitermin zinc oxide are gonna fix it right up! A Nigerian voodoo queen done told us so!"
Yep, that's all you need (and it's now trademarked): the "Devil's Hydroxicumshot" - fill a shaker with ice, add 10 parts grain alcohol (or bleach, your choice), a pinch of zinc, a splash of vitamin D fortified milk, 3 parts demon semen (or Irish creme, again your choice), and a healthy dose of bullshit (or chocolate syrup, again your choice), shake, and strain though a mask. Serve straight up garnished with your grandmother's death certificate. Especially refreshing at summer block parties or wedding receptions! Oh, and one last thing - I can't explain it, but it really does taste better if an elected official mandates that you cannot make much less drink them, and for the absolute best flavor, enjoy them with at least 21 friends in a phone booth.
I've told my patients this for 6 weeks now. Children are not spreaders of COVID. They lackdevelopmemt receptor wise to spread virus. 2nd many other countries have been in school with no issues toward children. Also there isn't one reported case of a child spreading it to an adult. More children are killed in auto accidents than die from COVID. These children are not affected I will continue to say it bc that is what science tells us. No political or social media post by non science based celebrities will change that.
5:56 And what if science casts doubt on that theory? Are you willing to change your mind?
"A report by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) into an outbreak at a summer camp in Georgia suggests children – even asymptomatic cases – may play an important role in community transmission of Covid-19."
"Part of the issue, as the Harvard epidemiologist William Hanage explained last month, is that many countries closed schools early in the pandemic, leaving little opportunity to study if and how the virus spread among children, and studies that had been made of children and transmission were sometimes problematic."
"Two new studies, though from different parts of the world, have arrived at the same conclusion: that young children not only transmit SARS-CoV-2 efficiently, but may be major drivers of the pandemic as well."
So...why don't y'all go to MSDH and see the percentage of children under age 17 as a percent of the total cases. Do remember they have not been in school.
You know how to do the math to find a percentage right? It doesn't take a genius. You should have learned division in the 3rd grade. Even better the calculator on your phone knows where to put the dot!
Now, everyone who thinks that percentage won't rise,with 5 to 17 going back to school, raise your hand. Dunce cap and corner for YOU if you did.
Now, everyone who thinks that the kids will take the virus home to adults and siblings who often interact with them at their level, face to face, raise your hand. You get a good grade!
Thank God, children under 5 and in general have great immune systems. But, if you think they can't shed the virus because their distance expelling a virus in a cough or sneeze is weaker, you have not actually cared for a child under 5. Doing so without close proximity is damn near impossible.
1% of Americans die each year of everything. You deniers have gotten us to almost 3% of CV 19 deaths compared to the annual 1% of flu deaths. You got that percentage 3% in deaths today compared to new cases up to 4%! And, just wait until real flu season piles on!
Way to go, dummies!
I just don't know what the hell is wrong with some of you besides poor math skills and no understanding of science. I do know that you don't have the guts or the common sense to get through a tough time unlike the Greatest Generation and those in the Depression.
Your whining and denial is glaring. And, you call others snowflakes?
12:16PM wrote, "So...why don't y'all go to MSDH and see the percentage of children under age 17 as a percent of the total cases."
Excuse me, there, Dr. Archimedes, but here's a problem for you:
X = Y% of Z, where "X" is children under 17 who are infected with SARS-CoV-2, and "Z" is the total number of people of all ages in...in...well, let's assume Mississippi (and we all know that no one 17 and under has ever left the state of Mississippi) who are infected.
X, Y, and Z are unknown. Solve for each.
As I'm sure a math and science genius such as yourself understands, the number of positive tests isn't the total number of people who have COVID-19, and with pediatric cases often, but not always, being untested, about all we have are some rough guesstimations as to the total number of kids of any age or age group who are infected at any one point in time. I am surprised that a noted mathematiphysician such as yourself doesn't seem to understand either compound effects. When little Billy or Susie get infected and have no symptoms, grandma, grandpa, and all sorts of other folks play, sleep, cuddle, etc., with them. And then, those folks get infected and most of them do wind up with some level of symptoms, often severe or fatal. BUT WAIT! There's more! Since those adults don't develop those symptoms immediately and start shedding the virus prior to those symptoms developing, they often infect some number of other adults because they "know" that they haven't been around anyone who is sick. And then, I bet you can calculate what happens next, right?
I will also point out that kids (and staff) are already turning up via school-related infections and with symptoms sufficient to warrant testing, including in districts that hadn't even officially started.
In closing, transire suum pectus mundoque potiri, but look who I am telling. I'm sure you won't need to search for a translation.
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