Jackson Jambalaya

Last time there was a hospitalization drop like this (see April 6 on the chart in your good news post a few days ago) the number shot right back up. We’ll see if it is the start of a trend, but I’m feeling some hospital didn’t get their numbers turned in last night.

Fair enough.

I don't get excited about hospital drops until a couple days later. Seems they are always revising that number, especially with weekend reporting.

The lines on the graph shown are as "flat" as you can get. This was the goal, correct? We did it so let's get back to living. Play ball, open school in the Fall, get your health screenings and well visits, take your family to eat, etc. Every day we do not get back to living and enjoying life is a day we will not get back. We can do this with some common sense such as use good hygiene as we always should regardless of pandemic or no pandemic.

Again, 3 day averages are the points to follow. If you haven’t learned by now that MSDH reporting is... never mind.

Sunday numbers. 379k Tests. 21k Positive. Back to the norm mostly across the country.

I know what you mean. If it stays within a regular range, that is not a bad thing either.

150 in ICU and that figure has been flat for weeks. Is that maybe an average of less than two per available hospital? And for that we shut the entire economy?

Sunday reporting. I'll check back on Wednesday.

I believe the large numbers in Madison County are caused by the high disproportionate number of nursing homes. There are 10 that I can think of in a county of a little over 100,000 people.

Excellent point, 10:01...although some genius will refute it.

I’m calling it now. Most likely, but no later than, Wednesday, there will be a spike when the reporting catches up from the 3-day weekend.

@10:01PM and 1:32AM:

I'm not refuting or agreeing, but here is what the state says:

Madison Cases: 654 Deaths: 21 LTC Cases: 89 LTC Deaths: 12

On one hand, the death rate in LTC cases does account for a disproportionate number of deaths, but Madison County's number of cases would still be among the highest county numbers even with LTC cases subtracted. Compare to Harrison, with double the population: Cases: 234, Deaths: 6, LTC cases: 2, and LTC deaths: 1


I've pointed out before that deaths are an important number, but it isn't the only one. Even the number of reported cases shouldn't be taken as a polestar. In the coming years, we will learn that some number of people had what they took to be symptomatically milder cases (over a range of individual perceptions of the seriousness of those symptoms) for which they did not seek treatment but which did varying amounts of long-lasting or even permanent damage to their lungs or other systems. Most of us know people who need to be on death's door before seeing a doctor and others who want an ambulance for a paper cut. Also, some number of people have been hesitant to seek treatment for a variety of reasons. However, it is too early for useful data on the severity of unreported cases. I would guess, but have no specific data, that LTC cases have a much higher reporting rate, approaching 100# reported, than reporting rate of the rest of the population. There is preliminary data that there the percentage of asymptomatic cases drops with age and that folks in the average age range of nursing home residents are more likely to be symptomatic.

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/elizabeth-ames-coronavirus-new-normal-dont-believe-all-the-predictions-heres-why

I would feel much safer in Madison County long term care facilities than with any boat load of rednecks up river, ( or urban yewts at the Natchez Trace sites ).

Maybe we need to get out of the speculation business as well.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/cuomo-we-all-failed-coronavirus-projections-new-york

"...elizabeth-ames-coronavirus-new-normal-dont-believe-all-the-predictions-heres-why..."

Elizabeth Ames? Just tossing this out there, but when it comes to viral pandemics, folks might want to listen to virologists, doctors, epidemiologists, etc. rather than journalists-turned-flacks, quants and analysts, economists, etc. It may be of some note that when the folks who hire members of latter group to write reports and articles have medical issues, they always seek members of the former group and never, ever the latter group to treat what ails them. It may also be of some note that plain ol' folks do the same exact thing. Has ANYONE ever hear ANYONE say, "I'm having a heart attack! QUICK! Someone call an economist or at least someone who writes op-ed pieces...I'm dying over here!"