Will the scheduled appearances of President Donald Trump in Tupelo and the president’s son Don in Purvis help galvanize Trump’s not inconsequential base in Mississippi to support Republican gubernatorial nominee Tate Reeves against Democrat Jim Hood?
That, despite national approval ratings for Trump that are in the low 40s range and have remained so for many months?
In the 2016 presidential election, Trump took 57.86 percent of Mississippi’s votes against Democrat Hillary Clinton with 40.06 percent – a margin almost 12 percent better than Trump got nationally.
In the 2018 Mississippi U.S. Senate special election, Trump stumped for then-interim Republican U.S. Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith against Democratic nominee Mike Espy. Despite a campaign marred by some gaffes, Trump’s visits here were cited as a major factor in Hyde-Smith’s 54 percent to 46 percent win over Espy. Espy was no sacrificial lamb Democrat. He ran a serious race with serious money.
Espy raised almost $7 million in that losing campaign, one in which he outraised and outspent Hyde-Smith.
The close bond between outgoing two-term Republican Gov. Phil Bryant and Trump has been a factor as Bryant’s role as the titular head of the Mississippi GOP helped to clear the tracks for the “Trump Train” in Mississippi. Throw in strong Republican majorities in both the Mississippi House and Senate along with the GOP holding seven of eight statewide offices and it’s hard to imagine why Mississippi is experiencing what many believe is the state’s most competitive governor’s race since Republican Haley Barbour successfully challenged Democratic Gov. Ronnie Musgrove’s bid for a second term in 2003.
Barbour won that race with 52.6 percent of the vote to Musgrove’s 45.8 percent. Three minor party candidates split the remaining 1.6 percent of the vote.
In the 2007 race, Barbour’s leadership after Hurricane Katrina made him virtually unbeatable and he upped his victory percentage by almost six percent against Democratic trial lawyer John Arthur Eaves Jr. Bryant’s 2011 and 2015 gubernatorial general elections wins were decisive.
But the 2019 campaign between Reeves and Hood – two candidates who have each successfully faced statewide voters the same number of times in the same 2003, 2007, 2011, and 2015 statewide elections – is different.
Hood and Reeves both have established constituencies. Both have a stable base of donors. Both have weathered tough, contested elections before. Campaign money won’t be an issue for either of them and neither of them are shy about bare-knuckle politics.
So how much difference, if any, does the Trump visits make for the Reeves-Hood showdown?
Some fascinating research by FiveThirtyEight.com elections analyst Nathaniel Rakish examines data which measures the “partisan lean” in states against Trump’s net popularity. In that comparison, Mississippi had a plus 15-point Republican partisan lean against a net Trump popularity of plus 19 points – for a plus 4 total.
Essentially. Rakish identified states where Trump was “more popular than he should be” given the partisan lean. On that list, Mississippi at plus 4 (No.2), Louisiana at plus 3 (No. 3) and Alabama at 0 (No. 6) were defined this way: “The fact that Trump’s net approval rating so closely matches partisanship in these states may be because they are very inelastic, meaning they are home to few swing voters. Specifically, in these states, evangelical whites are likely to be staunchly Republican, and black voters are likely to be loyal Democrats. So it wouldn’t be surprising if all the Republicans simply approve of Trump and all the Democrats disapprove, with few independents left to move the needle.”
The fact that most observers, Republican and Democrat, see the Hood-Reeves race as extremely tight despite Reeves’ obvious advantages makes Rakich’s theory that Trump is perhaps four percent more popular than he “ought to be” based on our state’s current GOP partisan lean to say the least a tantalizing suggestion for the Reeves camp.
Some Hood supporters believe that a Trump visit could hurt Reeves as much as help him. Both camps have about two weeks before the voters answer all those questions.
Sid Salter is a syndicated columnist. Contact him at sidsalter@sidsalter.com.
Wednesday, October 23, 2019
Sid Salter: Trump More Popular than He Should be in Mississippi
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34 comments:
Hood is more popular in Mississippi than he should be.
"More popular than he should be" is the new catchphrase for "We don't want to show how popular he really is so let's create a false narrative to explain why the poll doesn't reflect reality." Since the manipulation of the polls in the last presidential election I place no trust in any polls.
Small sample sizes, questions skewed to elicit a desired response, ignorance of what is really there... poll taking has become so politicized that there is little way anyone can buy what rot they are trying to sell."
Espy lost simply because he's a crooked politician!
I think those questioning Trump's popularity with Soybean farmers are elitist who presume that farmers are too stupid to understand the long game of winning the trade war with those godless chicom bugmen.
Communist Party Leaders who cant feed their factory works wont stay rich very long. And you cant eat iPhones and HD TVs. What we produce in quantity and quality is necessary for human survival.
Sid Salter is only popular with die-hard spendaholic RINOs and the people he's known for decades (but said nothing about) who were/are hiring illegal alien labor in violation of the law.
Wasn't Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com thoroughly and utterly debunked as worthless propaganda in the wake of Trump's victory?
The fact that Sid Salter takes them seriously speaks volumes about his tribalist tendencies.
Sid Salter, given more press that he should have.
Trump is more popular due to the lack of options. Washington is a complete joke and Trump, for all of his faults, appears to be the only one that is calling it for what it is. I agree Trump is more popular than he should be, and it is partisan politics that is at fault. Career politicians are to blame..both parties... I agree, Trump will not help Tater. People are too smart for that. Trump isn't Reagan.
The real question is...how popular should Trump be, and based on whose assessment and/or opinion? More prognostication and indoctrination from the press and academics who would rather tell us what we should believe, rather than give us objective information for us to form our own opinions.
Under Trump's administration my business has never been busier, and I have a project pipeline extending well past 2020 -- this is real financial security for the families of the folks who work for me and this kind of stability will allow me to make the capital investments and upgrades which will enable me to grow my business and employ more people. On style, Trump could do better, but on substance, he's delivered!
Mississippi is the most "Us against Them" state in the union. We don't care so much if it helps "Us" as long as we think it hurts "Them". Donald Trump is the perfect fit. He will come and make some completely asinine and divisive statement to piss "them" off and we will love him for it. Tate's a shoe in!
Salter’s rino pomposity is on fool display. He’s dismissive of the fact that maybe realizing that Mississippians that Espy is crooked as is the Clinton crime family. Trump’s economy has benefitted minorities, women and low income Americans at a rate much more than it should given the media’s false portrayal of him as a racist. Those not benefiting from the Trump economy are like living in a democrat created cesspool filled with dehumanizing dependency upon government entitlements, I.e. wards of the state.
The fanatical devotion evangelicals show Trump is so bizarre on so many levels.
Dont mess up a good narrative with the facts.
Sad Sack Sid Salter is more published in Mississippi than he should be.
Sid Salter works for a state university whose football team does good to beat Division II teams. Who cares what he thinks?
Remember three years ago when Espy said he was donating all his time, pro bono, flying back and forth between Madison International and DC all for the community's benefit of having an exit ramp on the Trace at Lost Rabbit. And the executive director of the Pearl River Valley Water Supply District appeared before the Madison County Board of Supervisors to pitch that project and offer his support?
The same Chuckie Espy who was all in for a new airport somewhere up in the boondocks of MadCo.
The explanation from 538 makes no sense. I'm sure it makes sense to them, but they do a poor job explaining it. Nate, the father of 538, gained national attention severals years ago for having accurate polls. Today it is altogether different. I defy you to read 538 for a month and tells me it's anything more than a mouthpiece for the left.
We have some traditional R leaders in the state who can't get over that the voters finally got tired of them being afraid to do anything and divorced them for Trump. But it's more than that. Trump proves two things that scare them to death #1 Political experience is vastly overrated. #2 Trump doesn't make policy decisions based on the interest of a few rich donors. That just rocks their world. They don't understand a world where raising money from special interests isn't a politicians primary interest. Note to the never Trumpers, he'll be retired in six years and you will get another chance. If you think you can do nothing as before you will be mistaken. Trump is at times rude and crude but he gets results. In a world where the left has gone completely insane, results really matter. When he is gone we will be spoiled for someone who keeps their promises and gets results.
Sid Salter, no where near as popular as Trump . . . anywhere.
Love me some Trump, but his showing up here is not gonna persuade me to vote for Reeves.
With the Trump thing deteriorating as fast as it is, even Republicans will be ashamed they voted for Reeves before it over.
More of Sid's boring trite drivel.
You people beat all that I have ever read, and I pray that I don't know any of you in person!
Sid is a decent and relevant human being, and he does not deserve your cowardly comments.
Shut up about a RINO, and for God's sake, PLEASE go and form your own Trump party and leave rational Republicans alone!
You people beat all that I have ever read, and I pray that I don't know any of you in person!
Sid is a decent and relevant human being, and he does not deserve your cowardly comments.
Shut up about a RINO, and for God's sake, PLEASE go and form your own Trump party and leave rational Republicans alone!
Rational Republicans = Borrow and Spend Pork Addicted RINOs
Who cares what Sid thinks,
10:57am I'm truly happy that your business is doing well and your family is secure. Mine is too though we're not beholden to or dependent on Trump administration favors to business for our success.
But, the bottom line for us is that we recognize there's a larger world out there and that what happens in it can have future impacts on our security and that of our family.
Stabbing our allies in the back is stupid. We have 300 million people and if you think, despite our military equipment that we can stand alone, you are hopelessly naïve.
Also, we respect our Constitution and our laws. The emoluments clause is in the Constitution and if you've bothered to ever read the writings of those who signed the Constitution, you'd understand why foreign interference in our elections and policy making is extremely dangerous.
And, there's the hypocrisy and lies that we find hard to swallow . The GOP used the exact same process while investigating Benghazi that is being used to investigate Ukraine. Indeed, Trey Gowdy defended, rightly, Democrats " bad process" complaints then( there is video...look at it). So, we are appalled by the " protest" yesterday and even more appalled at the technological ignorance displayed.
What we see is an administration that, through ignorance or design , is helping our enemies...and we do consider Russian, China, North Korea,Iran and ISIS as enemies of our Nation.
Try watching BBC for a while. I know you think anything but FOX is propaganda but if you watch BBC, you might figure out you are watching propaganda too, especially if you are watching the opinion shows , not the actual news shows on FOX.
Indeed, any English newspapers from other countries...might enlightened you.
@6:23 Trump must be a RINO then. The national debt has EXPLODED under Trump.
The inconsistency of folks calling any republican a RINO is hilarious when Trump was a life long democrat right up until the time he decided to run for the Republican nomination.
Trump is the greatest president in American history. He will not be recorded as such because of people like Sid Salter. Trump’s trip to MS is just a simple example why we nee a republican governor. MS needs all the help it can get & being on the right side of the federal administration is good.
I don’t know anything about Tate Reeves. I’ve never met him. I have known Mike Epsy for a long time. IF FOR NO OTHER REASON, MS needs to vote for Reeves so Mike Epsy will not be U. S. Senator Epsy. We do not need a democratic senator which is exactly what Jim Hood would appoint if the occasion presented itself.
6:23, and this differs from the D's how?
@11:14 This is pure ridiculousness. Neither Wicker nor Hyde Smith are approaching or considering any sort of retirement. So, there will be no appointment to be a US Senator. And, if there were, something called an Election would need to be held fairly shortly after to determine who would hold the seat for the term.
Someone please tell me what specifically what Trump himself has accomplished other than a psychological impact on the stock market and politicizing the judicial system .
What has he done that hasn't resulted in conflict and a legal mess?
I see the largest increase in the deficient (25%).
I see a trade war that has caused increased costs to consumers without any discernable " end game" because impulse and intuition has no strategy.
I see him alienating all our allies when it's suicide to think we could go it alone without allies.
I see him emboldening and empowering Jong Un, Putin, and Xi.
I see him aiding and abetting foreign influence in our elections by being against the shield law that would help protect our votes and which, while supported by GOP in the House, can't get past his buddy , Mitch.
I see him protesting a process created by the GOP controlled House during Benghazi.
I see someone bragging about knowing more than anybody about anything and everything when he doesn't even know that Colorado isn't a border State and when my grandchildren in elementary school write better letters.
I see someone whose defense is name calling like pre-schoolers and making up far fetched tales ( Cruz father involved in assassinating JFK...hell , if he believes it, his crazy or stupid and if he doesn't and still says it, he's evil).
I see him violating his oath of office by not upholding the Constitution, specifically the emoluments clause.( Really people, do you not know that the offer of " free" for Doral was free for Trump but NOT free for the rest of the G-7. And, no taking no pay for the Presidency is not uncommon but what is uncommon is profiting taking for your businesses you still own is. Creating a blind trust is not just turning over the management dummies, it's not being able to use the office to take specific actions to improve your business opportunities).
I see the hypocrite in chief playing more golf and costing us already more than anyone he criticized while campaigning.
I see the only President in history who has tried to discredit our government institutions and who is afraid to publicly release his taxes or let his actual academic record be known( He does NOT have an MBA. He didn't go to Wharton from the start, he transferred from Fordham just to get the name on his diploma with a few courses).
He is a promoter and a braggart and a liar and adulterer who knows so little about history, economics and government that I strongly suspect every grade and diploma he ever received was purchased.
Who cares what Sid Salter thinks?
I surely don't . . . and he is kin to me, but neither of us admit it.
"I see the only President in history who has tried to discredit our government institutions and who is afraid to publicly release his taxes or let his actual academic record be known( He does NOT have an MBA. He didn't go to Wharton from the start, he transferred from Fordham just to get the name on his diploma with a few courses)."
Really? So you can actually point me to a full, unrestricted copy of Obama's academic record? Really?
Do you know what the word "only" means?
I'll wait for you to post the link to Obama's academic records. You'll excuse me if I don't hold my breath waiting for you to put up or shut up.
2:03; If you don't think Wicker is on the way out, you're not paying attention. He could not survive a re-election attempt if his three retirements depended on it. Neither he nor Hyde-Bryant-Smith will have those jobs in four years. And when Slick Bennie retires early, if Conway is gubner, you can bet your ass what and who will replace him by appointment.
The only thing that exceeds a Rino's attempt to appear conservative is Hood's attempt to appear moderate.
@8:56 Somehow he got out of high school civics class too. He doesn't know why the legislature is there.
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