Sunday, April 7, 2019

Bill Crawford: Will Lesser-Known Candidates Save Us From Our Saviors?

First a correction. Last week I wrote there are 13 candidates for governor; instead there are 14. I left out Constitution Party candidate Bob Hickingbottom. My apologies.

The Associated Press labeled most of these as "lesser known candidates." While it is unlikely a lesser known candidate will win a party nomination, this is Mississippi where lesser knowns surprise us.


Remember Thomas Carey?

Carey was the Hernando retired realtor and volunteer prison minister at Parchman who put his name on the 2014 primary ballot as a Republican candidate for U.S. Senator. This lesser known candidate got only 4,854 votes out of 319,000, but his presence forced a runoff between Thad Cochran and Chris McDaniel, to McDaniel's dismay.

Could that happen again? Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves is the favorite, retired Supreme Court Chief Justice Bill Waller, Jr., is the challenger, and Hernando state Rep. Robert Foster is the lesser known candidate.

As exhibited in the first Republican primary debate last week (skipped by Reeves), Foster is an attractive and articulate conservative candidate. He will likely win a lot more votes than Carey did, especially in his home DeSoto County, one of highest turnout counties for Republicans.

If Waller, who had an excellent debate, mounts a tight challenge to Reeves, Foster could force a runoff.


Then there is the Democratic primary. Attorney General Jim Hood is the favorite and Hinds County District Attorney Robert Shuler Smith is the key challenger with seven other lesser knowns on the ballot.

Remember Robert Gray?

He was the unknown African-American truck driver from Terry who came out of nowhere to upset favorite Vicki Slater, a white lawyer from Madison, for the Democratic nomination for governor four years ago. Smith and most of the Democratic candidates this year are African-American, while Hood is a white lawyer.

Could history replay itself? If black voter turnout is high and white turnout low, Hood could face a runoff or worse.

Still and all, the lesser known candidates are unlikely to up-end Reeves, Waller, and Hood.

As for them, all three have plans to save us. Reeves wants to save us from taxes and Washington liberalism. Hood wants to save us politically and spiritually. Waller wants to save us from irresponsible government.

At this point in the campaign, it's easy to envision Reeves as a tweetless mini-Trump with a dash of Betsy DeVos which appeals to many Republicans, Hood as a toned-down Billy Graham proselytizing us on family friendly issues, and Waller as a laidback, conservative William Winter running an issues based, responsible government campaign.

How will this play out? Let's assume there are no lesser known candidate surprises.

To win, Waller, a Baptist deacon, must activate statewide the same sort of grassroots coalitions that carried Baptist deacons Gregg Harper and Michael Guest to victory in their congressional races. Hood must grab a large share of white Christian conservatives and turn out a huge black vote in November. If neither happens, Reeves' deep pockets and tax-cut agenda should carry him to victory. A Waller upset of Reeves would greatly dim Hood’s prospects.

The wild cards for November are President Trump showing up to meddle in the campaign and the level of black voter turnout.

But this is Mississippi, so who knows what will really happen.


Crawford is a syndicate columnist from Meridian.

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

There are those running to help themselves and those running to save us from them. Vote Waller!

Anonymous said...

$5 gets you $10 that Crawford comments anonymously here @ JJ.

Anonymous said...

Foster for governor No Tate for my state

Anonymous said...

Prior to election day, nobody in Madison had ever heard of Vicky Slater. And after we learned who she was, we wish we had not.

Please stop tossing oranges into the apple barrel.

Anonymous said...

223, the folks in Madison County that had not heard of Vickie Slater weren't voting in the Democratic primary either.

Would be fair to say that nobody in Madison County (or anywhere else, for that matter) had heard of Robert Gray either.

Follow your own advice about playing with fruits.

Bunion For State Foot Surgeon... said...

For the fruit at 3:10 - I don't have knowledge of how anybody votes in Madison county and neither do you. I've never heard of Robert Gray either. Was he by the chance the mystery truck driver from a planet south of Venus? These people that tend to pop up out of the woodwork and manage to finagle enough signatures to land on a ballot are meaningless in the grand scheme of things. Surely you will agree.

3:10 said...

539, if you don't know how the people of Madison County vote, it's omy because you are too ignorant to understand basic electoral politics, are unable to read and comprhend precinct election returns, or just like to show your ignorance by making stupid blog site comments.

And as an additional show of your ignorance you comment about'finagle signatures' to get their name on a ballot. Primary candidates pay a filing fee (amount determined in statute depending on the office souhht), not by getting signature, finagled or otherwise.

No, I don't agree with any of your uninformed thoughts.

Anonymous said...

And which one of these "lesser-known candidates" changed the ultimate outcome of any election, even the Cochran-McDaniel debacle?

The fact that Hood, Reeves and Smith are the favorites among statistically significant cohorts of likely voters explains so much, including the myriad reasons Mississippi is last or in the bottom 3-4 in so many categories. I cannot say with any certainty that a Bill Waller or a truck driver can make things much better, but there just isn't any "much worse" unless Haiti wants push past Puerto Rico to become the 51st state.

Anonymous said...

3:10 - At least learn to spell the really difficult words like ONLY, COMPREHEND and SOUGHT. And pay attention to the fact that signatures is plural. That would be a good starting point for ya. And do get some sleep tonight.

Anonymous said...

I read Crawford's editorial in the Hattiesburg paper today. He was blowing off steam about Taggart's position against the state flag. I wonder what it would take to get Kingfish to feature a conservative in these weekly rants. We already have Salter, as if that's not enough of a weekly dose of liberalism.



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