Tuesday, July 30, 2019

Poll: Tate Leads Waller 41-31.

A new Mason-Dixon poll suggests there is a strong possibility of a runoff between Tate Reeves and Bill Waller, Jr. in the Republican gubernatorial primary next week.  It appears the spat with Larrison Campbell boosted Robert Foster's fortunes as he received 13% of the votes.  The sample was 500 likely Repubican voters.

One interesting feature is the unfavorable rating.  19% of the respondents said they had an unfavorable opinion of the Lieutenant Governor while 9% said they looked unfavorably upon the former Chief Justice.





85 comments:

Anonymous said...

Looks like we can wrap it up folks. It's just like the 2016 Presidential Election. The Polls say Tater Tot has this one in the bag, and I believe them.

Think I'm going to go shoot up some Fentanyl behind the dumpster at my nearest C store to cope.

Anonymous said...

They can count on me too, I am going to vote in the Republican primary just to vote against Tater. Hood is a shoo in so I am not worried and even if he's not so be it. Never Tater.

Anonymous said...

Foster was never a viable candidate and won't receive even 10% of the vote. A week out and 45% of those polled don't recognize his name. He's done.

Anonymous said...

Please win Waller. Even if Tate were to win, Delbert and Phillip hate him. How effective is that government? Tate has proven that he can’t work with people. I guess we’ll see whether he’s a cocky enough ass to use his veto power. He’ll find some way too strong arm them. That’s the only way he knows how to “lead.” Not my governor.

Anonymous said...

Waller for sure wins in runoff. Waller destroys Hood in general. Hood and MS Democratic party are a joke. On another note, Foster has a bright future running for Senator or something in 5/10 years.

Cynical Sam said...

Darn, now there is no reason to vote, because Tater Tot has it in the bag. Polls are always 100% accurate, right?

Dewey Wins!
Trump Loses!

Anonymous said...

I will vote for Tater...I will vote for Tater...I do not like Tater...He is an unimpressive twit...but...I will vote for Tater...I will vote for Tater...

Anonymous said...

How interesting give the early polls which indicated that Reeves had the election sewn up.
Could it be because the word on the streets is having an effect?
At any gathering where the gubernatorial race comes up, someone has multiple good deeds or reasons to praise the other candidates, including Hood. But, nary a person has named a personal experience with Reeves where he did something nice he didn't have to do or took a positive action that wasn't self-serving.

Anonymous said...

Me too 7:11. I ain't voting for Tater in the primary, and if he ends up winning it, I ain't voting for him in the general. I ain't voting for Hood either, so I'll just write-in some poor sap's name......maybe Earnest T. Bass.

Anonymous said...

Irl Dean Rhodes said Tate stands a good chance to loose in Rankin County. Stick a fork in him.

Anonymous said...

Mason Dixon:
Those interviewed were randomly selected from a phone-matched Mississippi voter registration list that included both land-line and cell phone numbers.
.....
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than ± 4.5 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if all voters were surveyed.



MT's SurveyFlunkie:
The NBC News SurveyMonkey Mississippi Poll was conducted online among a sample of 1,171 adults aged 18 and over who live in Mississippi, including 1,042 who say they are registered to vote.
.....
Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a probability sample, no estimates of sampling error can be calculated
.

Anonymous said...

This poll is off. Every time I ask another conservative Republican if they have decided who they are supporting for governor, most responses are "definitely NOT Tate," and most support Waller. I honestly have met no one who admits they support Tate.

Anonymous said...

I guess we’ll see whether he’s a cocky enough ass to use his veto power. He’ll find some way too strong arm them.

You wouldn't know leadership if it was staring you in the face. That is what we absolutely need, a Governor not afraid to use their veto authority.

Anonymous said...

But, nary a person has named a personal experience with Reeves where he did something nice he didn't have to do or took a positive action that wasn't self-serving.

Bullshit. Come up with something original barf next time.

Anonymous said...

I was planning on voting for Tate, but now I see he doesn't need my vote so I am not going to bother going to the poles and standing in a line.

Anonymous said...

If this thing gets to a runoff, I don't think it will be a slam dunk for Tate. I think that Waller can pull in 70 percent of the Foster vote, which would tighten this thing up. 15% undecided is a big number - they have to be having reservations about Tate.

Anonymous said...

There's no way Tate loses this. I get that Bill is the Frontier Strategies candidate and their faction is trying to spin a different narrative, but the only intrigue here is whether Foster can draw enough to send this to a runoff.

Josh and Quentin will have to make money through the legislature for the next 8 years, and not siphon it off of state agencies.

This race is Reeves vs. Frontier Strategies. "Bill only pawn in game of life." (In my best Mongo voice.)

Anonymous said...

I expect Tate to carry Rankin County ... but just barely. And that speaks VOLUMES.

Gubmint Funded Frontage Roads For Entitled Enclaves said...

Don't be hating us because we got it made in the shade and like home cooking! If Tater can't win who can?

Anonymous said...

@8:30 I agree with you. This poll is off or at least it doesn't accurately display the viewpoints of most Mississippians. It is important to note this poll only showcases FIVE HUNDRED opinions; there are thousands more across the State. I have not met one single person who says that they are voting for Tate. Most say "Anybody but Tate." I like Justice Waller, but think he is old and has served his time well as a Justice. I really would say he was begged to run for office and did it to please others, although he didn't really want to. I would vote for him though. Foster is impressive--just watch the WJTV debate again. I admire his values and his passion to see things across the State changed and improved. For the primary, I will vote Foster. As will MANY more people across the State. I really think that everyone is going to be surprised at the numbers on election day. My money is on Foster first, then Waller. Tate may get 20%--if that. NO ONE LIKES HIM and in politics, personality does matter. I'll probably catch heck but this is Just my humble opinion.

Politico said...

Prediction. Reeves and Waller tie around 42% with Foster picking up 16%. Waller beats Tate by 60% to 40%. Waller beats Hood 55% to 45%

Alternate scenario if Reeves wins the run-off. (Not likely) - Hood beats Reeves 52% to 48%.

Anonymous said...

Could the unthinkable happen? Waller winning without a runoff?

Anonymous said...

So doesn’t support for Foster go to Waller in a runoff? The anything by Tate movement...

Anonymous said...

Waller. Please.

Anonymous said...

With Tate Reeves the State Greives

Anonymous said...

Every poll out there done by third party political groups (and there at least a handful of recent ones as well) have Tate at 50. He may not get 50, but he isn't getting low 40s. Mason Dixon isn't the most reliable polling group - never have been.

My prediction - Tate gets any where from 48-54 / Waller gets 28-35 / Foster gets anywhere from 9-14.

Runoff odds - Yes for a runoff 60% / Not a runoff 40%

Anonymous said...

Can we discuss the oddity of the sitting governor wading out into primary politics? Reagan wouldn’t even endorse George H.W. Bush in the primary. I hope this is recognized and backfires on “the establishment” big time.

Anonymous said...

We live in a Mississippi where Republican candidates are advocating for tax increases and the Democrat frontrunner wants to cut taxes. What is this place?

Anonymous said...

Would Tate just be a repeat of two step Phil? We need a change. It’s time for change.

Anonymous said...

If this poll is accurate, Tate is toast. It indicates Waller is surging and will overtake him in the runoff. Mississippi has a history of second place finishers winning runoffs. Charlie Sullivan led the Dem primary in 71, lost to Waller Sr., Winter led in 75, lost to Finch, Gandy led in 79, lost to Winter. Gandy led again in 83, lost to Allain.

Anonymous said...

I would be shocked if there is not a runoff. And if there is a runoff, my bet is on Bill Waller, Jr.

Anonymous said...

Let’s expand on the surrounding visible spots around the state capitol in which Tate, has been working in the past 71/2 years. Now consider state street, monument street, capital street, larmar street, ridge wood road, terry road, high street, Ellis Avenue, Belhaven community streets, and Fondren streets most streets that he has had to travel at some point and during his time as Lt. Gov. Now consider this why is there no consensus concern for the citizens of Mississippi especially when it comes to beautifying Jackson or to help the mayor of Jackson, improve Jackson. Now consider this our highways are FILTHY” , the medians are filthy” miles and miles long of busted up 18 wheeler truck tires pieces, dead animals and debre of trash for miles and miles, hundreds of miles... north, south, east and west of all the highways in our beautiful state! Now consider this our state coliseum (city) needs to be torn down and rebuilt, it doesn’t need an add on, the trademark building needs torn down and rebuilt, but who cares right! Consider this has Tate pushed legislation to help the poor people in Jackson and in other counties No! Consider this has Tate had an “ open door policy “ NO he DOES not, during his entire time as Lt. Gov. at the Capitol he has kept his office door shut! So consider this, who do you think feels shut out! “EVERYONE “ ...... So he has a plan to continue that ole conservative way”
Mississippi is diverse, Mississippi is a melting pot, Mississippi deserves someone who cares about “EVERYONE”

Kingfish said...

Guess you missed the Capitol complex bill.

Anonymous said...

Imagine where Waller would be if he had hundreds of thousands of outside special interest money spent on television and radio like Mark Baker has enjoyed.

Anonymous said...

Look for insecure Tate to go negative on Waller between now and the August 6th primary. Reeves is getting worried. If Tate does go negative, it will hurt Tate and not Waller.

Anonymous said...

As a good Democrat, I will be voting in the GOP primary, for Tater.

Y’all join me!

Anonymous said...

Why is Irl Dean Rhodes important?

Anonymous said...

As a life-long democrat, I am voting for Reeves. He has done great things for us, and I know as governor he will continue to strongly support our left-wing causes.

Anonymous said...

Commenting on 9:51am and endorsements. Reagan was smart, Phil Billy is not and is the weakest governor in decades and several of his endorsements will lose, and he is a sexist, will only endorse men. Interesting that he did not endorse the only republican woman in a statewide race, Lynn Fitch. The republican women in MS are pissed!

Anonymous said...

Yes 10:52, Baker authored legislation and led it though the committee he chairs and was signed by Phil Bryant. All so he could hide where the $800k comes from. There will be no transparency in the AG office if Baker wins, how Clintonesque!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

All of the polls I have seen show Baker in last(3rd). Even with all that money from who knows where?? Anyone know where the money is coming from? What is their special interest in controlling the AGs office?

Anonymous said...

So not support Lynn is sexist? Ha! What if he is just not a Lynn fan. Does he have to be to not be “sexist?” That’s silly. Phil Bryant has been a great governor. Wish he could run again! I bet he would beat all of them.

Anonymous said...

You want a better state? Don't vote for Tate.

Anonymous said...

There are more Tater ,Trump and Tariff haters than you think. Tater is going to get retired this year and Trump is gone next year along with his tariffs .

Anonymous said...

Baker's money comes from out-of-state national and multi-national corporate interests that don't want to be sued for the harm they cause in Mississippi. Think drug manufacturers, tobacco/vaping companies, insurance companies. They funnel their money into PACs and give them fancy names designed to cover their true aims.

If you think opioid manufacturers should get off, vote Baker. If you think Juul shouldn't have to be confronted with marketing to kids, vote Baker. If you think venture capitalists should be able to defraud the state of tax dollars, vote Baker.

Anonymous said...

Tate has been elected to state office 4 straight times. If he doesn’t crack 50% in primary, he’s not getting any fosters voters or they would have voted for him in the first place. Tate is well known commodity...good or bad and he won’t change many minds. Tate is Hillaryesque. You either can put up with him or you really hate him. There’s no middle. And that killed Hillary.

Anonymous said...

who cares who you vote for or who has the most money for the campaign. This must be a site where people can just be read or be heard because nobody else will listen to them. Get back to work and quit posting. You may want to watch DR Phil since you have plenty spare time.

Anonymous said...

kinda up in the air on Reeves/Waller. Lt. Gov is easy and the AG race is interesting, given the outside money for Baker. Is this Mike Moore influence or others in DC and NY that want to control the office? This is the first I have seen on any of this? Where is the media on this issue? Thanks Kingfish for exploring these important issues!!!

Taters and (Golden) Eggs said...

@8:55 AM: ...I get that Bill is the Frontier Strategies candidate and their faction is trying to spin a different narrative, but the only intrigue here is whether Foster can draw enough to send this to a runoff.
Josh and Quentin will have to make money through the legislature for the next 8 years, and not siphon it off of state agencies.
This race is Reeves vs. Frontier Strategies. "Bill only pawn in game of life." (In my best Mongo voice.)
----------
Josh and Quinton/Frontier Strategies won't have a problem making money for the next eight years - have you seen all the campaigns they're managing or have managed? They have a lock on virtually every branch of Mississippi's state government and pieces of the federal pie: Cindy-Hyde Smith, Michael Guest, Delbert Hosemann, Bill Waller, Michael Watson, Shad White and their all-time favorite, Phil Bryant. I've been told - haven't verified - that in Gregg Harper's last year in office, Frontier was getting paid more by Harper's office than they were by the Michael Guest campaign, which at the time was a very active campaign. What consulting work were they doing for Harper? Now they've gotten even smarter and are recruiting legislative candidates at the district level, like Johnny Black.

To Frontier's credit, their one obstacle to near total dominance of Mississippi politics is Tate, so they got Bill Waller to throw his hat in the ring. Josh and Quinton are already sitting pretty, but eliminate Tate and they're the goose with the golden egg. They're the ones running Mississippi, not our elected officials.

Kudos to the Frontier boys. They may have been young whippersnappers when they helped get Haley elected the first time, but they've parlayed that into private planes and million dollar houses overlooking private lakes.

Baader Meinhoff Fanclub - Antifa MS said...

I'm ready for a change but it wont come from the ballot box. Trumps racists tweets are swelling the ranks. Revolution is coming. Power to the people.

Anonymous said...

July 30, 2019 at 8:40 AM, is that a flag pole? a barber pole? stripper pole? It's poll, dear. And don't be useless. Be a good human and stand in line and cast your vote.

Anonymous said...

So what I got from the debate is that Waller wants to raise the gas tax and start teachers at 40 thousand a year. The only way teachers get that kind of raise is taxes going up. Of the three Tate was the only one that said he would not raise taxes. I don't really like him, Tate, but I will not vote for someone wanting to raise my taxes. , Also both Waller and Foster talked about Medicare expansion. Call it whatever but the ones of us working will pay for the ones that don't to have insurance. No possible way can we afford this. Waller is in way over his head and is really a democrat like his father.

Anonymous said...

Open primaries, PLEASE! Not right that if I choose to vote Republican for statewide races that I can't have a voice in choosing the nominees for my county and legislative offices who are running on the Democratic ballot!

Anonymous said...

So what I got from the debate is that Waller wants to raise the gas tax and start teachers at 40 thousand a year.

It is worse than that. Waller and Foster both support gas tax increases but only if a corresponding tax cut can be found somewhere else. Meanwhile, a Medicaid expansion will inevitably produce a budgetary cost not currently accounted for in our state budget regardless of the level of federal support provided for the expansion. So, they want to increase the gas tax, offset with a cut somewhere else and increase expenses all at the same time.

When it comes to the state finances these guys, and Hood for that matter, are nowhere near ready for prime time.

Anonymous said...

60% of Republicans don't want Tate.
Waller has good chance to win the runoff. If Tate wins the runoff Jim Hood will be the next Governor.

Anonymous said...

Foster never said he wanted to increase Medicaid. He said we need to look at all options because what we are currently doing isn’t working. He is right.

Anonymous said...

Kingfish; Can you post some of these Hillary/Trump polls so I can compare?

Anonymous said...

Right 6:05, Foster talks yang and has no real plans. He'll finish a very distant 3rd.

Anonymous said...

Waller and Hood can't fulfill their campaign pledges without raising more than the fuel tax. Lt. Gov Hosemann will never be Governor Hosemann if he agrees to raises taxes. Period.

Anonymous said...

The Hood folks are for Waller. They share some of the same consultants mentioned above on this site. Walker seems like a nice old man, unfortunately, he is a pawn in this Mississippi version of the Game of Thrones.

Cynical Sam said...

I voting for the first candidate who pledges to build a new road from my gated community to Colony Park.

Anonymous said...

It’s interesting how similar the platforms of Hood, Waller and Foster are...anyone wondering why? Look behind the veil folks...and wake up! He may not be easy, but he’s no ones puppet, Tate is the only choice.

Anonymous said...

I’m voting for the one man that has proven over the past 8 years he can say no to the special interests on both sides of the various policy fights in the state Capitol and stand up for what he believes to be right regardless of the political consequences. Tate Reeves is the only candidate that can lead our poor state forward in the global economy.

Anonymous said...

Serious question, Can anyone name 1 thing that Tate plans to accomplish if he’s voted in? Where is he on infrastructure, his own healthcare plans, education, helping Jackson?

Anonymous said...

After reading all that new shit that came out today on 'The Deep State', I don't trust nobody.

Anonymous said...

Anyone want to bet that 5:01 and 5:30 are really Tate Reeves campaign staffers? Or maybe the same staffer? Or perhaps even the Grand Imperial Potato himself?

Emperor has NO clothes said...

Has everyone forgotten about Tate’s BRIDGE Act? Tate’s highway and bridge bill he pushed through the Senate in one day so nobody would have an opportunity to read and analyze the 300 page bill! The bill whose funding came from smoke, mirrors, and borrowed money!

But most importantly, Tate’s bill took the decision making authority of which roads and bridges to build and repair AWAY from MDOT and gave it to the Governor! Which obviously Tate thinks will be him.

Thank goodness the House killed the bill. The Senate could not kill the bill because of retaliation from Tate if they voted against HIS bill. But I guarantee Senators were talking to their friends in the House telling them to kill a bad bill.

Anonymous said...

8:03 You are joking of course. Forward in the global economy? Forward?
Global? Tate Reeves? Imagine if he were in Georgia or Florida or North Carolina, states that are already moving in the global economy. It's beyond imagination. You have added comedy to this discussion. Thank you.

Anonymous said...

Until the baby boomers die off our state and our country will continue to decline. That generation has been the worst one in American history for our well being.

Anonymous said...

Waller's proposal for Medicaid reform would not cost the state a penny. New enrollees would be required to work, contribute a modest policy premium, and pay co-pays for visits. Community hospitals have agreed to write off the rest. In exchange, the federal government pumps $1 billion into the Mississippi economy, which means more jobs and preventing the closure of more community hospitals. This is what Mike Pence did in Indiana, along with other red states.

Anonymous said...

He “Tate” plans on doing “NOTHING “ but enriching his own community, not Mississippi’s community HIS OWN COMMUNITY! And basically making Mississippi his own little cult. He plans on making Mississippi more “SEGREGATED” than it already is... Tate is planning on dividing everybody and dividing everything!!!!

Anonymous said...

Who will Trump endorse? Tater Salad, Billy "Rambler" Waller, or Foster "No Wimen" Foster?

You know it is coming.

Anonymous said...

If Tate wins the primary, I will vote Democrat for the 1st time in 40 years. Hood over Tater.

Anonymous said...

9:50 - How many people on Medicaid do you know who are working or able to work who don't have one or more exclusion tickets? What's your estimated number or percentage? So, how would all your new entrants go to work and 'contribute modestly'?

Anonymous said...

@9:50– Van, please shut up. Numbers and facts were never your area of expertise— see: BIPEC.

Anonymous said...

Watching Fox and Friends this AM, can’t hello but notice the similar styles of Bernie Sanders and Judge Waller.
Finding it hard to believe that Mississippi Republican Primary voters are going to actually vote for an old Democrat.

Anonymous said...

Thanks 7:56. Huge difference between the Indiana plan and the MHA plan for Medicaid expansion — the Indiana plan does not give a single source contact to a Hospital Controlled Insurance Company that exists on Paper only:.. Glad BIPEC is now led by a smart professional rather than a silly hack...

Anonymous said...

Waller may not be a Democrat but he sure as heck is looking like a tax and spend Republican.

Plain ol' Catfish said...

@ Kingfish

"Guess you missed the Capitol complex bill."

Duly noted, but it took him 8 years to even get something like the Capitol Complex moving. You can't say he didn't have a legislature that was willing to work with him on something of that magnitude.

The capitol complex initiative is good legislation, but it's too little too late and it's his own fault.

Anonymous said...

So Tate is Haley Barbour v3.0? Bought and paid for by the Barbour big money machine? No thanks!!!

Anonymous said...

Blaming Reeves for not producing the Capitol Complex bill sooner is ignorant folly. Maybe that is why you are a bottom feeder.

Anonymous said...

Sorry 8:09 but ALL Mississippi Republican candidates over 50 are old Democrats.

Anonymous said...

Why is the answer always, "tax more", "take more from hard working people"? Why can't any public officials roll up their sleeves and cut out spending on ridiculous programs? Also, where is the press on this Mark Baker issue where he sponsored legislation, pushed it through the committee he chaired and now, hides money (over $800,000) that he has received from an outside interest group? Poor Andy is trying to finish second and this guy is pulling up in the polling with money from outside interest groups and no one in the media is asking questions? WHAT????? How does this happen and with Phil (what a waste) signing the legislation, you have to believe he is in on it!!! Or perhaps it is like the prison scandal, where he knew nothing about it (Right). Maybe issues like that might get explored by the next AG!!!!!

Anonymous said...

When has a government entity ever reduced spending? You all are fools if you think that this state can catch up to the rest of USA without it costing more. I am all for a use tax like gasoline, but the truth of the matter is if you want to fix infrastructure and have nice things, then it costs. Period. I don't see Tate walking in and say he is doing this job for free and giving up his war chest. I also don't see him cutting any programs. I am a life long card carrying republican, but Mississippi is in the dark ages in every sense of the world. We don't have near what other states have and its the reason people are leaving left and right. But if y'all are cool with it, then just don't tax yourself right on until the rest of the state looks like Hinds County.

Case study: Rankin County was attractive to the people looking to move out of Hinds County. After a while, these people kept wanting nicer things. Schools, parks, etc. Well, how did Rankin County do it? They passed taxes to get it done.

Anonymous said...

For the life of me, I just can't see Tate Reeves as our governor. That almost would be like having watched Dan Quayle ascend to the presidency.

Phil obviously doesn't want to be upstaged by an effective governor, so he's anointed sort of a mediocre 'mini-me' in boat-shoes to succeed him.

"Do like me and vote fer Mr. Potato Head. You'll be prowed'ja did".

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