Wednesday, September 27, 2017

Chism-Millsaps poll: Voters don't like legislature, want lottery.

Millsaps College and Chism Strategies released its polling results in a "State of the State" memo today.  Some highlights of the memo are:

*Voters are almost evenly split on whether the state is going in the right direction.
*Approval ratings: Governor Phil Bryant: 53%, Leftenant Governor Tate Reeves: 38%, Attorney Generalissimo Jim Hood: 52%, Mississippi Legislature: 26%,
*Fixing roads and bridges should be the top priority of legislature. It almost doubled the votes for the next choice.
*Public school funding is too low
*Voters split on increasing taxes on higher wage earners and corporations.
*There is very strong sentiment against raising gas taxes.
*Overwhelming support for a lottery at 70%
*Strong support for charter schools at 54%
*29% of the respondents were Native African Americans. This is close to the 2015 NAA voter turnout numbers.
*55% of respondents were female.
*43% were Republicans, 32% were Democrats
*38% of calls were made to cellphones.  Live operators interviewed the respondents.
*Millsaps professors picked the topics and questions.  Millsaps paid its share of the call center costs directly to the call center.  


Anonymous said...

Chism poll - 'nough said.

There are some interesting things here, but not too impressed with the accuracy of the results, because:

(1) Chism poll

(2) 60% Democrats polled - in a state that the Repubs have carried how many times?

(3) 62% Landlines - only Chism could find that many people with landlines - certainly changes the demographics of the sample

(4) Can't read the Scribed document, which might answer the question - automated responses or live interview

(5) Opportunity for "none of the above" or "undecided"?

And of course, again - Chism poll.

Anonymous said...

I'm fine with a lottery. I'd play. I stop to purchase Powerball tickets almost every time I pass through Delta, LA.

But there is no shortage of documented proof from all those states that have gone before us that selling a lottery as a means to fund public education is an total public policy disaster.

Anonymous said...

12:41-we can use the lottery money for ROADS or whatever.
Then repeal the law that prevents me from ordering wine on the net and having it shipped to my house (bc Rankin is controlled by the Coalition for Stone Age Living, I've given up on hoping that they'll allow wine and liquor sales in a physical store beyond "cooking wine")
Less government, free markets- yay!

Anonymous said...


Quit your bitching.

You moved to live with the Roy Moores of the live with it.

READ the Question said...

Q13 Would you support creating a state lottery with funds dedicated to public schools?

Anonymous said...

Any money that might come to the state if we had a lottery would do exactly like much of out tax money.
It would end up in the politician's pockets or the pockets of their friends.

Anonymous said...

"40% were Republicans, 60% were Democrats"

It looks like it was actually 44% Republican, 32% Democrats, 23% "neither Democrat nor Republican" and 1% refused. Did you just make a typo, or am I reading the results incorrectly?

Anonymous said...

1:03---I'm for less Government and less regulations but people try to screw over each other chasing that almighty dollar---that's why we have all these regulations. We do it to ourselves !!!

Anonymous said...

O.K. I will bite who or what is Chism and why do we question them aside for the list?

Anonymous said...

I'm for the lottery and using the proceeds for education or the roads, with this one proviso....The current level of funding to the roads or education from the current funds CANNOT be diminished. In other words, the lottery proceeds will SUPPLEMENT the current amount, NOT replace it. Which is what they did when the casinos were legalized.

Louis LeFleur said...

Anon. 1:58, Chism is Brad Chism. A local political consultant/lobbyist and part-time professor. Most of the readers here don't like/trust/believe him because he is a Democrat. He credentials, per his website (so...)

"Brad earned an honors degree in political science from Millsaps College and was a Rhodes Scholar at Oxford University. While at Oxford he focused his graduate studies on economics. He is an adjunct faculty member at his alma mater where he teaches courses in Campaigns & Elections and Politics & Technology. Brad is the author of the American Association of Political Consultants (AAPC) publication, Best Practices: A Guide to Selecting Telephone Voter Contact Firms. Additionally, he has been published in the three-volume Voting in America, a collection of essays used for upper-level college political science courses, with a chapter on the role of organized labor in the electoral process."

I know him somewhat through church. He's a good guy and smart as well, even if I don't always agree with his politics.

Louis LeFleur said...

Anon. 3:20, I'm "for the lottery and using the proceeds for education" too, but even more narrowly, ONLY for math education. That way maybe future generations will learn what a bad idea lotteries are!

Anonymous said...

An interesting subtlety in this poll, Reeves' Approval rate is much lower than Bryant and Hood - both of whom are well above water - but he also has a Net Positive rating (38.4%:31.8%). Also, Reeves' Disapproval rating is lower than Bryant's. Reeves just has a much larger number of Undecideds. That says to me that some people who should be for him aren't, but they aren't against him either. The next two years will determine whether he picks-up the spares or loses them to Hood.

Anonymous said...

Tate 38.... probably not right

Anonymous said...

Hosemann is sitting on 68. Call him Governor

bill said...

Two points. One, go further than 20 miles from the Capitol and the hatred for Tate Reeves among regular voters diminishes pretty rapidly. Two, Jim Hood gets lots of Republican votes when he runs for AG, a problem that's vexed Republicans for years, but there's no guarantee those votes will be there when he runs for anything else. Anyone who bets against Tate in 2019 will be doing it at his peril.

Bonus point: Delbert would rather have an easy race for Lieutenant Governor than a hard race for Governor.

Anonymous said...

I live way further than 20 miles from the capitol and I haven't run into one voter that likes the idea of Tate Reeves as Gov. The Republican party in MS better do some serious polling before they commit to Tate as their candidate for gov.

Anonymous said...

20 miles? More like just outside the Jackson city limits.

Anonymous said...

I remember when Brad Chism came back home after his studies in Oxford.
Of course, he was hired to work in state government which is where he wanted to work at that time, the government in MS was controlled by Democrats.
Instead of being happy that one of our own who was smart and earned a Rhodes Scholarship chose to give back to his State, he was bashed before he ever showed up for the first day of work.
It was the " he thinks he's better than we are " whispers and it spread like wildfire.
I felt sorry for the kid as all I could see he was ever trying to do was share what he learned and be helpful. He was polite and matter of fact but those who were benefitting at the expense of the taxpayers called this " arrogance". They couldn't dispute the information he was giving the legislature or special interests, so they attacked him even more.
He was a serious young man, not a back slapper or flatterer so that became, " see, he's unfriendly".
And, as you can tell from above comments, it worked.
Ironic too, that it was Democrats then more than the Republicans who bashed him.
My reaction was, " no wonder our really smart kids who get scholarships to world recognized schools or just go to those schools rarely come back home or just go ". We aren't happy and proud and welcoming, we are waiting with pitch forks.
We will take economic and political policy advice from people on the radio we never met who barely got out of high school and are admitted drugs addicts, but , God forbid we take it from any one who studied the subjects at an Ivy League school or worse, Oxford and were taught by those who spent a life time studying those subjects.
There's nothing wrong with this poll except some of you don't like the results.
God bless the few who I've watched stay and keep trying at personal cost to themselves. They had better offers but loved home. But, the message is loud and clear and has been for can go away and be a success elsewhere and then come home, but you can't go away and come home and be a success.

Anonymous said...

Native African American? When did "Native" become the new tag? And wouldn't Native African American imply the person actually came from Africa? CONFUSED!

Louis LeFleur said...

Wow! Well said, Anon. 7:22. Not that you were too wordy, but you could have just said, "A prophet is honored everywhere except in his own hometown and among his relatives and his own family."

Unrelated and somewhat ironic tidbit for the rest of you: Brad Chisom and Tate Reeves attend the same church.

Anonymous said...

@ September 27, 2017 at 6:58 PM

Bill you said, "Bonus point: Delbert would rather have an easy race for Lieutenant Governor than a hard race for Governor."

Dewey is 70 going on 71 by time 2018 comes around, assuming people are dumb enough to elect Triple Cheese Tator Thot Maximus to the Governorship, then electing him to a second term, do Mississippian's want to elect an 80-year-old person to run the state?

Dewey's best shot is now against an unpopular snot nose rosacea faced Gen-X'er who thinks more like Kim Jung Un, than say a person who born and raised in Mississippi and has some common sense.

Dewey or Fitch are the sure shots for the Republican Party - they would even receive crossover votes.


Anonymous said...

55% of those polled are 55 and older. That seems way off.

Anonymous said...

The accuracy of recent Chism Polls makes me extremely skeptical of this information.

Oh and Anon @7:22 (aka Brad) calm down son...

Anonymous said...

Age of voters in survey.... whatever else is off in the Chism/Millsaps poll, the national voter list vendors who get their info from Dilbert's database say this is about right.

bill said...

8:24, my opinion? Delbert is going to settle for Lieutenant Governor and not worry about being Governor. He knows that from a policy standpoint that it's the most powerful job in the state, and he doesn't want to risk losing against a well funded opponent. It's a sobering moment when your best donors tell you that they won't support you in a race against Tate for Lieutenant Governor, so I expect he doesn't want to have to go through that again.

Lynn is the wild card. She will be a formidable opponent for anyone, including Tate and Delbert, or she may opt to run for AG or stay where she is. Provided that she doesn't get the federal appointment that she's been rumored to be in the running for, of course.

No one seems to be thinking about Stacey. He's always coveted the LG job and might want to make another run at it. Chaney would be a good candidate as well, maybe the best, although he and Delbert would have to duke it out to see who got first dibs on the Metamucil. And don't forget that Cindy Hyde-Smith was in the Senate before she became the Ag Commissioner.

Dominoes falling everywhere...

Anonymous said...

Louis LeFleur...thanks. I admire your ability to be succinct.
I thought it necessary to make it clear that I was a witness to truth of your sentence in this case. Who knows? One or two of those who hold a poor opinion of Mr. Chism might have a conscience. It might occur to them they have never met him and know nothing about him and haven't questioned the motives of those who speak ill of him.

Anonymous said...

@ Bill

8:24am here - you make good points, I feel where you are coming from.

I just don't want that Rosacea faced som'itch as my got'damn governor and I need to have faith that someone with some depth from the Republican Party challenges him.

I am saying this as a staunch Democrat. I know Mississippi is three Ku Klux Klan sheets gone to the Republican Party. But I can wholeheartedly say, I could tolerate a Fitch or Hoseman Administration, opposed to Mississippi's version of Kim Jung Un

Anonymous said...

840, you just described why neither Fitch or Hosemann will win. Yes, they will get some crossover votes, if they made it to the general, because both of them are more democrat than republican. Fitch support is backed by former employer Moore, and his butt boy Hood. The trial lawyers that have sucked those tots want to be able to continue sucking, and she fits the bill. Delbert is the cause of us being stuck with Hood due to his duplicitous move/countermove deal he cut with Moore in 2003.

Anonymous said...

Your declaration of being a democrat and referring to republicans as Klan members and comparing them to rocket man perfectly describes Hosemann and Fitch's support - dems that like them and their 'policy' and politics. Why don't you get them to run as a Dem where they belong?

Anonymous said...

@ 9:44 AM

Because Hosemann and Fitch would not expand Medicaid. They wouldn't repeal the welfare cuts that Barbour, and Bryant have made.

Neither people are Democrats

If a Democrat was Governor

The would do the following:

eliminate the grocery tax
eliminate the birthday tax on personal vehicles
eliminate ABC
create a state lottery
allow liquor sales on Sundays
pass legislation for gun control
eliminate voter ID laws
increase gas taxes
allow sports gambling

You know stuff Mississippians don't like until they go visit someplace else and are amazed at how efficient those other places are run. How smooth their roads and bridges are.

Lynn and Dewey would not do a majority of those things. But they would stop the bleeding and be at least more sensible compared to Kim Jung-un a.k.a Taterous Maximus Rosaceous Expialidocious

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