Saturday, June 21, 2014

NYT: Will transplants determine the Senate race?

The New York Times examined the role of transplant voters in the Mississippi Senate and Virginia Congressional  races a few days ago.  The newspaper specifically focused on Desoto County where Chris McDaniel "clobbered" Thad Cochran by a 2:1 margin.  Interesting fact: 72% of Desoto's population was born outside of Mississippi.  The New York Times reported:



In both states, the growth fueled by a migration of newcomers from other parts of the country and even abroad is bringing nationalized politics to races further down the ballot. It was these new arrivals, more than any other voters, who most crucially rejected two influential Republican incumbents — the House majority leader, Representative Eric Cantor of Virginia, and Senator Thad Cochran of Mississippi — in primaries this month, upending long-held assumptions about the appeal of traditional levers of power.

In the newly built communities of DeSoto County in Mississippi, and the fast-growing precincts in such metropolitan Richmond counties as Henrico, Hanover and Chesterfield — what could be called the Chick-fil-A belt — the conservative challengers to the two incumbents led by overwhelming margins.

State Senator Chris McDaniel thrashed Mr. Cochran by 36 percentage points in DeSoto County, the state’s third-largest, a key factor in his edging the incumbent by fewer than 2,000 votes statewide and forcing Mr. Cochran into a runoff. Mr. Cantor lost the suburban population centers of his district by double digits en route to being unseated by David Brat, a conservative economics professor and himself a Virginia transplant.

For all the talk about how partisan polarization is overwhelming Washington, there is another powerful, overlapping force at play: Voters who are not deeply rooted increasingly view politics through a generic national lens.

Friends-and-neighbors elections were already a thing of the past in congressional campaigns. But the axiom that “all politics is local” is increasingly anachronistic when ever-larger numbers of voters have little awareness of what incumbents did for their community in years past and are becoming as informed by cable television, talk radio and the Internet as by local sources of news. In this year’s primaries, the trend is lifting hard-liners, but it has benefited more moderate candidates in general elections.

“They don’t know who the heck Thad is,” said the Republican strategist Karl Rove, of Mississippi’s newly arrived voters. “There is no 40-year history with him, knowing that this is the guy who built up the state’s modern Republican Party. The same with Eric, people who have just gotten to Richmond don’t even know what the House of Delegates is, let alone that he served there.”

Voters in both places were chiefly interested in who would take a hard line against President Obama and most lacked, for example, some long-ago fraternity connection to Mr. Cochran at Ole Miss or a relationship with Mr. Cantor’s politically active parents — the kind of links that once were so important in primary politics.

In a rich historical turnabout, two states once ruled by native-born elites notorious for keeping voter participation low among poor whites and blacks have seen their politics sharply altered this year, in part because of surprisingly high turnout by transplants.

There is a more recent bit of history, though, that is proving particularly painfully given Mr. Cochran’s primary finish in this community of big box stores, national fast food chains and housing developments boasting of “Furnished Models Open Daily.”

In recent decades Mr. Cochran, a six-term veteran, has used his senior status on the Appropriations Committee to make these very neighborhoods possible: He steered nearly $80 million to DeSoto County to help build new wastewater treatment facilities to meet the growing demand that has come with the surge in commercial and residential construction.

Mr. Cochran’s backers note that the earmarking of such money — now taboo in the Tea Party era — has kept utility bills in the county reasonable and prevented higher local taxes.

“People in DeSoto County, many of whom work in Memphis and have not been there very long, they don’t know about Ingalls shipyard, they don’t care about Columbus Air Force Base, Meridian Naval Air Station, the Army Corps of Engineers center in Vicksburg, the Stennis Space Center,” said former Gov. Haley Barbour of Mississippi, who backs Mr. Cochran, reeling off places and projects that mean precious little to many voters here.

Because of their Memphis — that is the local media market — and national orientation, voters here can vex Mississippi politicians three hours to the south in Jackson, the capital.

When Mr. Barbour ran for governor in 2003, he had President George W. Bush campaign for him in this town. “Only a high-profile thing like bringing the president of the United States in could get people there to pay attention to Mississippi politics,” Mr. Rove said.

In Snowden Grove, a recent DeSoto development where children were recently playing with water pistols in a front yard while workers labored in the heat to lay the beams of a new house across the street, Jeanette Lyons said Washington “stinks” right now.

“It’s just like the guy in Virginia — Brat is his name, of all things — and he uprooted Cantor,” said Ms. Lyons, 69, who moved to Southaven three years ago from North Carolina. “I think it’s like Cochran — this guy wasn’t doing what was best for the country.”

“I don’t think people realize how Thad Cochran has voted, and Chris McDaniel brought that out, and that was very helpful for us who weren’t following it closely, because we just moved here, and we’re new to Mississippi,” she said.

Finishing up lunch at a Southaven Chick-fil-A on Friday, Rose Witherspoon, 77, said she and her husband, Bryant, both of whom grew up out of state and moved here from Memphis, were drawn to Mr. McDaniel for his broad conservative principles: “We like less federal government, we don’t like all this debt, we like more freedom,” she said.

As of 2010, 72 percent of DeSoto County’s population was born outside Mississippi, according to census figures.

Some of those nonnatives are people who grew up in the county after being born in Memphis hospitals. But the real estate numbers tell an equally striking story about the explosive growth here: Over 88 percent of local residents moved into their current home since 1990. Asked to describe the changes he has seen since his 1950s boyhood here, Mr. Davis said: “You can’t tell it in a year.”.....
Rest of article

30 comments:

Anonymous said...

No, no, no. No way Jose.
If they aren't born in Mississippi then they can't vote. We don't want any outside influences picking our candidates. Can't have that.

Anonymous said...

McDaniel may win on Tuesday, but the only way he'll see the U.S. Senate is on CSPAN. If y'all hate Cochran, you'll positively abhor Childers. Whatever. Stay focused on your trees. A forest is much harder to comprehend.

Anonymous said...


On June 10, Jackson Jambalaya had a thread titled "National Review takes a pretty good stab at why McDaniel did so well". The fourth post (@3:46 pm) under that thread says,


"Cochran has been in the US Senate for 36 years. He's a known commodity whose pork barrel politics has at some point over the last 30+ years directly profited large numbers of longtime Mississippi residents. Yet, this article seems to be saying that people voted for McDaniel because of a McDaniel ad blitz in the last three weeks of the campaign to which Cochran could not respond.

I have a better explanation. McDaniel is from Jones County. He is known there and liked there. Of course, Jones County supported its native son.

As for DeSoto County and the coast counties, they are full of displaced whites who have fled black controlled Memphis and New Orleans. Many of them haven't been Mississippians for long and therefore haven't yet been bought off by Cochran's pork. Meanwhile, such people are just the sort who are receptive to the message of lower taxes, less welfare, and less government interference in their lives. They have witnessed firsthand what happens when governments take their money and apply justice partially to reward the narrow constituencies keeping those governments in power."


It sounds like the New York Times is reading (and borrowing from) this blog.

Anonymous said...

just had my 1st Cochran call that was obviously intended to generate "democrat" support....I guess it IS true---Haley's greed has destroyed the Republican Party in Mississippi

from this day forward, I am forever (most likely) against anybody that Haley Barbour is "supporting", and that would include all his attack-dogs too...

Anonymous said...

So, let me be clear. Jones County, the sole county in the state to have balked at secession, is responsible for a senatorial candidate raking in the higher number of votes.

"It's been an honor to represent Mississippi". Good to hear Thad prepping for his going away speech.

Anonymous said...

To 3:06 about the forest and the trees. Many of us think you have that 100% backward. You think the forest is all the federal money that Mississippi cannot survive without. That if we vote McDaniel we don't see the forest. We are certain that the forest is that the entire USA is going broke and that if you vote for Thad you are the one who does not see the forest.

Anonymous said...

I'm glad the McDaniel voters are willing to
make Mississippi a sacrificial lamb. Just what
we need a failed talk show radio host to lead us.

Anonymous said...

Ha good point. Whatever happened to that two bit radio show?

NMissC said...

I read that article. I was curious about this: How many people "not born in Mississippi" in DeSoto County where born in Memphis, which is the nearest major hospitals, but had parents living at the time in DeSoto County.

My children were born (1981, 1984) in Tupelo and didn't live there a minute. The growth spike in DeSoto County began in the early 1970s and continues to the present.

I'm not sure any particular % was born in Memphis while parents lived in DeSoto but I would be sure it is well into the double digits.

Anonymous said...

I moved here in '74 and I have a legal right to vote for McDaniel and will do so while taking others to the polls to vote for him too!

Dumb article!

Anonymous said...

Chris McDaniel was host the radio program The Right Side from 2004 to early 2008. He resigned when he became a state senator in 2008.

It was a very successful show while McDaniel hosted. The show even when national syndication. It continues today as a local show with different hosts. It is broadcast from Hattiesburg.

On The Road With Charles Kuralt said...

"It's been an honor to have represented Mississippi for the past century. Now I plan to do some traveling and hope to visit all 57 states."

Anonymous said...

There's not a person blogging on this site that doesn't want the federal government to be fiscally responsible and sound.

The difference is that some of us are opposed to " throwing out the baby with the bathwater"!

Already, the Tea Party has delayed our economic recovery by causing our rating to fall and put us at risk of paying a higher interest rate!

They have tried via Kruz to make matters even worse by risking throw us into default.

Instead, we need to cut spending , not with the Tea Party slash and burn method, but by cutting waste, ending programs that aren't working, and evaluating spending priorities.

That requires hard work and brains, not emotionalism!

Does McDaniel know what zero based budgeting even is?

Can he explain why the focus was repealing Obamacare ( which the TP knew would fail) was the strategy rather than doing away with the no longer needed Rural Electric Administration which might have a chance? Why has the Tea Party still supported building ships the Navy doesn't want because they are obsolete?

Why does the Tea Party not tackle the Immigration Service and the waste and inefficiency there instead of building walls that are being breached faster than we can fix them? Why waste money on something you know isn't working instead of spending money in the short term for what will work in the long term? That's wise spending. Not all spending is bad and the Tea Party doesn't seem to know the difference between investing in the future and wasting money.

The devil is in the details when it comes to fiscal responsibility and the people financing the Tea Party and buying the candidates don't give a rat's ass about fiscal responsibility or else their focus would be on the specifics of how you get there!

They want control of the GOP!

McDaniel is trying to sell you a junk car that won't last and which will continue to cost you more while you have it, instead of taking the trouble to find you a car that would cost less over time and still be on the road years after the junk car is in the trash heap!

He's not seeing to the forest! He's lighting a match to it and telling you burning it down will make it easier not to get lost!

Anonymous said...

If the Tea Party and Republican conservatives are so concerned about the debt, why haven't they introduced one single tax reform bill that would direct all revenues to debt reduction?

Instead they've sold you on the idea that you can have your cake and eat it too.

If you really care about your grandchildren, put your money where you mouth is and support doing away with subsidies and credits. Support a graduated flat tax which increases at target levels.

In short, increase revenues until the debt is paid!

Or perhaps you don't believe that those who benefit the most have the most to lose if this country fails.

Anonymous said...

Electing McDaniel will be like electing Paul Gallo.
Nothing more than hot air. Our only hope will be
If McDaniel doesn't believe the stuff he spouts,
because if he does get elected , we will slip
further behind. Might as well give the keys to
the Koch brothers and turn out the lights.
I wonder how many Club for Growth junkets
McDaniels has been on ? That's who he will be
taking orders from.

Kingfish said...

Actually Camp produced a pretty credible plan this year although I doubt either candidate is aware of it.

Anonymous said...

8:19 - 8:35 - 9:30 -- Excellent points, but sadly, the Tea Party Supporters are so tied up in their rhetoric and zeal, they have no clue what you're talking about. Absolutely NO CLUE about economic policy. Just slash and cut and cut and slash. That will solve the problem.

They remind me of the French Revolution -- needed to happen, but in the end, it was a total disaster, because those placed in charge let power go to their head, became abusive, and reflective of those they had chided and rebelled against.

Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely. They want total and complete control of the GOP -- their mantra of individualism and grass roots, died a long time ago, or else, they wouldn't be here in MS working so heavily.

I have come to peace this weekend, that we just have to let them win, and OWN any outcome.

It will be a sad long 6 years either under Childers who will be a Reid/Pelosi supporter, or McDaniel who will just flounder in an attempt to find his footing in DC. Hopefully Mississippi learns. Then grownups can run and get past the emotionalism and rhetoric.

There was always a reason Mississippi sent up the same congressional leadership election cycle after election cycle. We are a small state and less than 1% of the population of the US. Without Seniority, we would have had NO voice. Tea Partiers from out of state, do not have a clue about our history, and no understanding of the reason we reelected over and over the same people. They want to say it is political elitism, but the reality is that it was political survival for our state in the Senate and Congress "Seniority" culture.

In addition, there are those in our state do not understand Seniority either and want only to malign it -- so we'll get what we ask for -- McDaniel.

I am interested to sit back and see just how he "UNBOXES" himself in the next 5 months in the general election, and then in the next 6 years, when reality hits his rhetoric smack dab in the face.

Anonymous said...

It amazes me that people who think Gregg Harper is qualified question Mcdaniel's qualifications to serve. Harper was a county attorney in Rankin. You GOP elite backers should have had a field day mocking him. He is the heir apparent unless Haley wants it. Haven't heard Tater or Delbert's name mentioned. I guess when King Haley anoints thee, thou art above reproach.

Anonymous said...

10:12 -- Harper has been in the US Congress since 2009. McDaniel has been in the State Legislature for 1 1/2 terms and has no qualifications beyond being a radio talk show host (2004-2008 I believe), and a trial lawyer.

I also think 27 years of practicing law helped Harper, along with being a prosecuting attorney for Brandon and Richland, and serving on the Mississippi Oil and Gas Board (just read his bio).

Anonymous said...

My point is that he was not a lifelong politician and had limited political experience when he went in. I am not talking about now. Yes, he has been up there almost one term, now.

Anonymous said...

10:32,

That swooshing sound is either that previous comment going over your head or the air gap between your ears.


10:10,

Tax revenues for this year are estimated to be $5.7 trillion dollars. $2.8 Trillion was brought in just by Federal Income Tax last year.

That's nearly triple what it was 30 years ago and is this country better off? Is this country healthier than it was 30, 40, 50, 60, 70 years ago? What about education? Is education better because of all of the extra money thrown at it?

I absolutely love the argument of just how bad things could have been. You are part of the problem with the U.S. Your thought is that there is money in the trough and we have been getting more than our share, therefore our elected representatives have done well.

You are and want to be a servant to your government instead of your government serve you. You've gotten the representation you deserve, ma'am.

Anonymous said...

Great blog 10:10 am . Don't give up. The polls are land lines and the young folks and their cell phones are home from college.

And, the GOP college kids know the Busby robo I keep getting is a fraud and McDaniels is willing to let others tell bald face lies and try to justify crimes to get elected.

And, yeah, more than a few Democrats care enough about the State of MS not to risk McDaniel winning in the general election.
They aren't get polled either.

The turnout wasn't great in the first primary.

This election is not a " done deal" by any means.

And, 10:32 am, you seem to entirely miss the value of institutional knowledge. McDaniel has NO clue how to maneuver in the Senate. If he did, he wouldn't be telling you he can do things he hasn't a snowball's chance in Hell of doing!

If McDaniel isn't crazy, he's laughing at you idiots who believe him and is looking forward to counting the dollars!

Anonymous said...

11:40 -- how do you know I'm a ma'am?

Maybe I'm a "sir".

Anonymous said...

11:55, I don't think anyone is laughing at the destruction of the Mississippi GOP, except some Democrats. The Haley syndicate should have let Thad retire with dignity and held a real election, instead of trying to manipulate the system by appointing their man after Thad retires during his term. They will stop at nothing to maintain their grip and win or lose, that was a grievous error for them and the party.

Cooper's Logic said...

Quoting 11:55: " McDaniel has NO clue how to maneuver in the Senate. If he did, he wouldn't be telling you he can do things he hasn't a snowball's chance in Hell of doing!"

Since all 100 members of the senate adhere to this campaign principle and always have, I'd say McDaniel is more than well qualified.

Anonymous said...

Mississippi is typically dead-last in all polls with first being…uh…best. Of course we don't need outsiders getting involved in our bidniss. BTW I see that our State Demi-God quarterback is pitching for Mr. Cochran. Still trying to understand why the QB is not on a sex offender list. Did he or did he not send a photo of his xxxxx to a young woman who didn't want to view his sexting attempts? Sorry, Brett, but we'd appreciate it if you just stick to football and ED commercials.

Anonymous said...

Good point. Why didn't I think of that, lol! You are correct 3:48. He should fit right in.

Anonymous said...

Dear 8:19,

Oh look! It's the throwing out the baby with the bathwater comment. Where have I heard that before? Maybe it's the tired line you Thad supporters trot out any time government largess is questioned.

But let's talk about that baby for a second. What if that baby is Hitler? Would you throw it out then? I would. Let's use a different example. What if that baby is Obamacare? Would you throw it out? Again, I would. Apparently, Thad wouldn't since he refused to cut funding for it.

Washington (this includes Thad, he's mighty guilty of it) has prostituted itself to the highest corporate bidder. No law says we have to continue this. As a voter, I will hold my nose and vote the candidate who says he isn't scared to try (emphasis on try) to change the way Washington spends money. Nothing I hear from Thad's mouth (when he's allowed to speak) makes me think he's interested in changing the status quo.

There are lots of voters like me. Thad will lose because we are highly pissed off at Washington. See that other race in VA as exhibit A.

Anonymous said...

Thad seems to be a nice guy. It is the rest of the gang that I can't stand. They are ruining his life so they can stay on top. Shame on them!

Anonymous said...

What if the baby is Hitler????

What is wrong with you????

You imagine babies are born evil?

You imagine your retort to be rational and persuasive, 5:21 pm?

You are willing to accept certain failure as long as an " effort" is made? And, to make that argument worse, there are solutions available, but you are too lazy to learn what they might be!

You imagine being "pissy" is useful? Pissy is easy and intellectually lazy. Try getting informed rather than inflamed.

Cool heads prevail always. Being hot headed is for losers.

You are the poster child for why our students need analytical skills.

Logical thinking is something that can be learned.
Once upon a time, many colleges and universities require " Logic" and "Philosophy".

God save us!



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