Monday, June 9, 2014

Food for thought from the WSJ:

The Wall Street Journal published a very penetrating editorial about the Senate race in the weekend edition.  It could have mentioned Mr. McDaniel being a State Senator but it still made some good points.


Democrats think they've found a way to keep the Senate, and his name is Chris McDaniel. In a Tuesday primary the former radio talk show host forced Mississippi's six-term incumbent Thad Cochran to a runoff on June 24, and the question is whether he'll cost Republicans a seat in November.

The history of runoffs is that challengers tend to win, and Mr. McDaniel is a tea party favorite for whom conservative outfits have already spent upward of $5 million. He received another boost on Wednesday when American Crossroads, the GOP independent-spending outfit, announced that it won't assist Mr. Cochran in the runoff.

The truth is that the 76-year-old Mr. Cochran largely has himself to blame for his predicament. Like Indiana's Dick Lugar in 2012, he overstayed his welcome with many voters. His record as a Senate appropriator—i.e., big spender—and his long tenure made him vulnerable to a tea party challenge in a GOP that wants to change Washington. Had he retired, he would likely have opened the field to a better range of candidates.

The question for GOP voters to consider is whether Mr. McDaniel can keep the seat in November if he wins the runoff. The state Senator has a history of, well, not so careful comments, such as referring to Hispanic women as "mamacitas."

Democrats will extensively rehearse that verbal history in the fall campaign, so Mr. Cochran might as well tell Mississippi voters about it now. Mr. McDaniel is also a trial lawyer who has resisted tort reform, though his backers at the Club for Growth say he's been educated and is now better on the issue.

Democrats are hoping that Mr. McDaniel prevails in the runoff and then commits a gaffe, which they will then spread via their media megaphone to define all Republicans this year. The Democratic nominee is Travis Childers, a former Congressman who is busy portraying himself as equally opposed to President Obama as any Republican.

While Mississippi is a conservative state, it's less Republican than others in the South. Mitt Romney won the state by only 12 percentage points in 2012, which is not much more than he took Missouri (9%) or Indiana (10%). Blacks make up 37% of the state electorate, and they'll turn out largely for the Democrat. Keep in mind that Democratic Senators represent Louisiana, Arkansas and West Virginia—states where President Obama lost by 17 to 27 points in 2012.

As a candidate, Mr. McDaniel can't compare to Senators Marco Rubio or Ron Johnson, tea party favorites with a shrewd political sense and substantive accomplishment. The challenge for the Club for Growth and Mr. McDaniel's other backers if they do defeat Mr. Cochran is to make sure that their candidate doesn't turn into another Todd Akin or Sharron Angle.

The GOP needs to pick up six seats to retake the Senate, and so far this year they've improved their chances by fielding promising nominees in places like Michigan, New Hampshire, Colorado and this week Iraq war veteran and state legislator Joni Ernst in Iowa. What a lost opportunity it would be if Republicans won one or more of these toss-up races only to lose the Senate because they lost in Mississippi.

47 comments:

Anonymous said...

The article DOES mention that McDaniel is a state Senator.

Anonymous said...

KF - they mentioned it:

"The state Senator has a history of, well, not so careful comments, such as referring to Hispanic women as "mamacitas.""

Anonymous said...

"The truth is ... Cochran largely has himself to blame...he overstayed his welcome with many voters... Had he retired, he would likely have opened the field to a better range of candidates."

This is why anyone who cares about the Republican party in Mississippi should be mad as hell at the Barbours, the Gregg Harpers, and the rest of them for taking away our right to choose from a full slate of good solid candidates. They encouraged Cochran to run. They should be ashamed of themselves. Now we are going to be stuck with this radical fool McDaniel for the next 30 years.

Kingfish said...

Not in the beginning. Somewhat misleading

Anonymous said...

Was Cochran is so detached, he didn't hire adults and professionals to run his campaign?
There was Stuart Stevens (a top-tier national campaign pro, but just a media guy, not a strategist);
Josh Gregory (Phil's top dog, but just a media guy, not a strategist;
Kirk Sims (no skills to speak of);
Henry & Austin Barbour (neither is a strategist, both are just fundraisers and self-dealing lobbyists WITHOUT A SINGLE VICTORY IN ANY CAMPAIGN EVER except Haley's, which Haley ran).

I cannot figure out for the life of me why somebody did not help Cochran hire serious people. With so much at stake, who is running the store?

Pugnacious said...

"Gone foreign" Cochran is following in Richard Lugar's footsteps, in an effort to appear International. The very same job-killing issues that forced Lugar out by rural Indiana voters are those championed by Barbour and Cochran: Illegal immigrant amnesty and Free trade agreements.

It was Mississippi's own John Rankin that fought so hard against "Gone foreign" Emanuel Celler and his allies in Congress, in order to prevent the dismantling of our immigration laws to facilitate the opening of the floodgates of Bolshevik immigrants from the Soviet Union. Even the warmongering internationalist FDR saw the dangers of unrestricted immigration.

Who killed the mayor? said...

They are understimating McD. Same as the establishment Republicans did here. He is smart. His impact should he win the general should not be underestimated.

Anonymous said...

The state Republican party leadership do have themselves to blame for not managing the succession and retirement of Cochran. The leadership of Bryant, et al have a streak of tea party in their hearts and they were inwardly conflicted. The other cause is the nature of party power being age, respect, loyalty, and trust in senility medication. They also donor pressure to keep him in place. Its also a possibility that the gubernatorial appointment of a successor in the case of incapacity or death was not firm.

Anonymous said...

Senator Cochran cannot be to blame as he had his politically motivated physicians, staff, and Mr. Billy Mounger of Jackson telling him that he was mentally and physically fit. He is not to blame due to his mental condition. The crime is a medical one --not the one at St. Catherines. It is the malpractice and negligence of his personal doctor.

Anonymous said...

The only way Childers wins is if Cochran supporters vote for him in substantial numbers. A McDaniel win will force the greedy power brokers inside the MS Republican apparatus to either put up or eat crow. Do they risk losing a Senate majority by not supporting McDaniel or do they have a hissy fit because they didn't get their way.

Kewl said...

If Thad wins, he will retire within 1.5 years. Haley will then be appointed by Phil. The Gregg Harper rumor is a ruse.

Anonymous said...

Thad will be 77 in December.

During the softball Bert interview, his lack of sincerity re: his wife was a little disturbing. Although he had plenty of nice things to say about Kay. Keep in mind, his "home" is near Oxford. No where near his wife's in Madison.

In my opinion, truly sad and truly out of touch with Mississippi voters.

Anonymous said...

Yeah but what happened to Melanie?

Anonymous said...

Cochran was an idiot to hire Phil Bryant's Chief-of-Staff and son-in-law of Sen. Roger Wicker Kirk Sims. This guy has ZERO experience in running a tough campaign. Then enlisting the Barbours to help isn't any better. They were involved in slam dunk campaigns, not hard fought ones. Thad needed an experienced and seasoned campaign team that knew how to handle a tough re-election.

Kingfish said...

Ronnie Musgrove was a slam dunk?

Anonymous said...

Did you live here then Fish? Haley flattened Musgrove with $12 million. Money like that had never been spent in MIssissippi races prior to that one. Musgrove had no chance.

Pugnacious said...

Although he had plenty of nice things to say about Kay. Keep in mind, his "home" is near Oxford. No where near his wife's in Madison.~

Was the subject of the 50th anniversary of their marriage on 6JUNE1964 broached by Bert?

Col. Reb Sez said...

Political oddsmaker Nate Silver gives Travis Childers a five percent chance of winning in November. If McDaniel is the nominee he raises that to 10 percent. I think that is an acceptable risk when the potential reward is a truly conservative U.S. senator.

Kingfish said...

Damn. I didn't realize we had that kind of money for political campaigns in Mississippi.

Anonymous said...

We didn't prior to Haley Barbour. He is the first politician to bring big outside money into Mississippi. It is funny now that they complain that McDaniel is funded by outside groups. They did it first.

Anonymous said...

This is about Jobs and the economic
vibrancy of our State, Teachers, nurses/doctors, Universities, Shipyard workers, agri-business, manufacturers, military and Stennis Space Center staff.....go to the polls and thank Thad Cochran on June 24th for your job.

Convolucious said...

I thought, in that diatribe, Pugnacious could surely have mentioned the importance of Stearman Trainers to the Delta agriculture empire. It would have made about as much sense and been even more relevant.

Anonymous said...

Thank Thad Cochran for my J-O-B? You have lost ypur mind.

Teapartyover said...

As usual most of the comments are half right. In reference to hard fought campaigns, some of you must have forgotten the campaign when Sonny retired and the Wicker v Musgrove race. Who ran those winning campaigns? I realize most commentators above are not from MS so I will forgive your ignorance. However, those of you that simply don't let facts get in your way should be ashamed of your willingness to tear down the party.

While everyone is ready for this to be over, I must say the Tea Party has opened my eyes to the fact that they will try to hijack the party's infrastructure at any cost. Reminds me of radical Democrats .

Teapartyover said...

As usual most of the comments are half right. In reference to hard fought campaigns, some of you must have forgotten the campaign when Sonny retired and the Wicker v Musgrove race. Who ran those winning campaigns? I realize most commentators above are not from MS so I will forgive your ignorance. However, those of you that simply don't let facts get in your way should be ashamed of your willingness to tear down the party.

While everyone is ready for this to be over, I must say the Tea Party has opened my eyes to the fact that they will try to hijack the party's infrastructure at any cost. Reminds me of radical Democrats .

Anonymous said...

Does anyone seriously think Thad could get through the general election without debating Childers? His handlers must think it would be a disaster. His response to Bert's question about debating McDaniel was, to me, the most troubling and disingenuous part of the interview. Coupled with his refusal to speak on election night, the conclusion should be obvious. If Thad is too far gone to speak in public, think on his feet and defend his positions, he doesn't need to be in the U.S. Senate.

Anonymous said...

I realize most commentators above are not from MS so I will forgive your ignorance.

Should we forgive your own ignorant ass? Because the Kingfish audience is as Mississippi based as you can find in the state.

Anonymous said...

You nailed it 9:18 AM. Should he win Childers will challenge Cochran to debate on June 25th and every single day after that whether Cochran doesn't respond or refuses. It will be torture. The Democrats will take the next 4+ months driving it deeply into the consciousness of Mississippi voters that Cochran is too feeble to debate, unable to defend his record and outright fearful. It was a loser strategy in the primary season and it will be even worse for the general election.

Anonymous said...

The establishment encouraged Cochran to run so they could encourage him to retire and they could handpick our next Senator. Hence making it easier for the new Senator to run for reelection in 6 years. Just one more reason for me to vote for McDaniel. The corruption and duplicity of the establishment is horrendous. To quote a horse owner, "they took the cowards way out" instead of letting the voters choose from a wide slate of candidates. You want to be Senator? Bryant, Reeves, Harper? Run in an election, not get appointed in two years! You get what you deserve.

Anonymous said...

Debate is not a problem. No senior statesman will debate a nobody..None!

Anonymous said...

No senior statesman will debate a nobody..None!

Really? So why is McConnell dogging Grimes to debate?

Anonymous said...

The article makes some valid points. Don't underestimate childers and the democrats. It seems from the commenters, most are reading political horoscopes, not very substantive basis for opinions. If you google the tea party platform, Chris McDaniels, Travis Childers, and Thad Cochran, based on present/current conditions, one would have to rationalize Cochran would be the obvious candidate to serve Mississippi's needs.

Anonymous said...

No way Childers wins if the general election is today....I think the point is, it's a LOOOONG time until November, and is it reasonable to expect that McDaniel's team won't continue to make headlines for the wrong reasons? Another ill-timed break-in or racist sound bite and all of a sudden Childers has a chance.

Anonymous said...

NOT debating continues to most definitely be a problem for Cochran. Obviously this 'nobody', as you are apparently referring to McDaniel, is somebody who garnered more votes than Thad in the recent primary.

Anonymous said...

The whole threat is hogwash. Look at Cochran’s campaign website and twitter---its crammed full of—if I don’t win, then the democrats win. Political crud. Even Priebus, Rep National Committee chairman, dismissed that argument this past Sunday.

On another note, Hannity endorsed McDaniel. Said his support was rooted in distaste for DC deal making. “Do we want to change the country for the better? If we want to do that, we need bold, outspoken, dynamic, inspiring leadership—people that are willing to take a stand.” “I kind of feel awkward telling people in Mississippi who to vote for, but I’ve been asked, and I’m giving you the answer: People ask me who I would vote for, and I would vote for Sen. Chris McDaniel,” Hannity said. “That’s my answer.”

And thanks, Thad, for voting to FUND Obamacare. CBO now states roughly 4 million will be hit with the individual mandate penalty, 1 million are low income Americans. Estimates of $4 billion will be collected. 200,000 of those paying the Obamacare penalties earn less than 100% of the poverty line. 800,000 are considered low-income.

Anonymous said...

715a-- that is exactly what is going to happen!!! no more Haley Barbour!!!!! Greed..greed..greed.

Anonymous said...

1105a. Cochran is too arrogant to debate. His skin sheds arrogance like a snake. I will never vote for him again. From my own past experience his staff is ignorant. I contacted his staff in DC and locally regarding questions I had on grant funding. his staff told me thad did not vote for this particular grant funding so I sent them a copy of a letter where he did support it then the staffer was rude and arrogant--- some young little twit! I had the same problem with Greg Harpers' office. these guys have got to get staffers that are knowledgeable about what the hell is going on instead of being appeasers to every person that calls in. they treat the taxpayer as a nobody with no respect especially the DC offices for Harper and Cochran. I am through with Greg Harper too. he is a pushover and his town hall meeting calls are a joke. I have been trying to ask a question on his Town Hall calls now for over a year and he won't shut up with his BS long enough for more than about 4 folks to ask a question -- he's running the clock out on the town calls to prevent more questions--- it didn't take long to figure out that strategy. Vote them all out!!!!! we need new blood.

Pugnacious said...

... It would have made about as much sense and been even more relevant...


Agreed that Bert is no Carl Monday.

At Bert Case's retirement, KF did post the video of Governor Fordice's rant after being confronted by Bert on the gov's running affair with the "other woman" from Memphis.

Anonymous said...

Harper does the tele-townhalls to avoid actual living breathing voters. He spent more time holding Thad's elbow as his elderly caretaker in the past couple weeks than in his district facing voters in the past 4 years.

Anonymous said...

The problem with McDaniel winning the primary is not that he might lose Mississippi to a Democrat, it's that his ignorant, homophobic, mamacita, etc. comments will hurt the Republican party on a national level. The Republicans failed to gain the Senate two years ago because of two or three of the nut job candidates they ran couldn't keep their mouths shut. Let's not forget McCain and Romney. Why even have a party if you keep handing the elections to the Dems on a silver platter???

Anonymous said...

1208 right on! Ha when I saw Greg Harper standing behind cochran on TV the other night he was so excited he acted like he was high on viagra..... reminded me of Nancy Pelosi standing behind obama ...smiling so big and clapping her hands . pass the Vaseline (for the teeth you know like they use in Miss America) get your mind out of the gutters.

Anonymous said...

Of course out-of-state tea party people endorse McDaniel. It empowers THEM while it weakens Mississippi. I'm not sacrificing Mississippi with my vote only to make a point. Term limits, yes! But only for my guy? No!

Anonymous said...

@12:37, hurt the party on a national level. That is absolutely hilarious! Ok, nobody's buying the other stuff, lets go with this.

What has hurt the Republican party----old cronies helping each other and ignoring the public; incessant need to continually vote liberal; the voluntary surrender of a backbone, etc.

McCain and Romney---pardon, but it was the old boys in the Repub party who brought those to the game. We'll call them the Harry Reid wannabees.

Electing a conservative only pisses off the liberal dems and those old boys who think they own the party.

Anonymous said...


This past Sunday Republican National Committee chairman Reince Priebus dismissed out of hand the chances of the Democrats picking up Mississippi. “I don’t think anyone with some minimal level of political sophistication actually believes that Mississippi is going to be somehow coming into play in November,” Priebus said on ABC News’s This Week With George Stephanopoulos this weekend.

The Rothenberg Political Report ranks Mississippi “Safe Republican.” The Cook Political report rates the state “Likely Republican” at R+9.

The New York Times’s Nate Cohn conducted an analysis of the actual statistics and numbers of the race and concluded that the “Democrats Shouldn’t Dream In Mississippi.” After walking through his analysis, Cohn argued that even the long-shot of a tiny Republican turnout doesn’t give Childers a chance in November.

“Mr. Childers would probably need a historic drop-off in Republican turnout, allowing black voters to rise to a larger share of the electorate than in 2012,” Cohn wrote. “Then Mr. Childers would need to run a flawless campaign and cross his fingers. Because even then he might not have a pathway to victory.”

Anonymous said...

every morning for the past week, thaddies have been all over our office bldg with thousands of plastic signs....the bus loads up and leaves before 9a and thaddies continue to come and go during the rest of the day....older guys in coats oversee this sometime

we're all past ready for this election to be over and for a new day to begin for our state!

go chris!!!!

Be Part of The Grass Roots said...

'Waste your vote'? Right. If you want to waste your vote, go with the octogenarian. It was 'influential' old timers like Thadeus who brought us Dole, Romney, McCain....the entitled who 'turn' it seemed to be. We no longer need Ed Rollins, Cark Rove and Thad Cochran to *tell us* what America needs.

And thank you, Pugnacious, for bringing up the Bert Case - Kirk Fordice encounter. I'm sure in your own mind you think that's somehow relevant to this conversation.

Anonymous said...

McDaniel is an abysmal failure as a State Senator --- how can anyone think he will be different as a US Senator?


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