Sunday, June 11, 2023

Bill Crawford: Data Search Fails to Reveal Student Progress

 Sometimes it’s fun to rummage around in published data to see what you can find – or not find.

The recent article in the New York Times expounding progress by Mississippi students prompted my latest rummage. The 3rd grade reading gate promulgated by Gov. Phil Bryant in 2013 was given much credit for marvelous improvements in NAEP scores by Mississippi 4th graders.

So how about ACT scores, I wondered? Are those early grade improvements sticking through high school? Also, with graduation rates up, are more Mississippi high school grads going to Mississippi public universities?

I delved into Mississippi Department of Education (MDE) data first. NAEP scores for 4th grade reading and math have jumped significantly since 2013. The ACT assessment is given during the junior year. A 2013 4th grader would have been a junior in 2020. So, from 2020 through 2022, how much did ACT scores improve?

Nada. 

Instead the average composite ACT score trended down from 17.6 to 17.4. So, too, did the average scores for the math and reading sections.

A look back at MDE information on NAEP scores showed 4th grade gains hardly extended to 8th grade. Maybe we need an 8th grade gate too.

The grad to university question got dicey. Nowhere could I find how many high school students graduate each year. I could find graduation percentages, which are up, but no numbers. 

The closest to an actual number comes from multiplying the graduation rate times the four-year cohort used by the formula. For 2023 that would be 88.9% times 32,681 for 29,053. Add on 11% for private school graduates (the proportion of high school students attending private schools) and the number increases to 32,249.

The MDE web site showed that 12% of the 2020 graduating class enrolled in a public Mississippi university. There was nothing more current. The percentage had ranged from 13% to 15% in pre-COVID years. Using 15%, the number of grads headed to our public universities would be about 4,800.

IHL data for Fall 2022 showed 15,405 freshmen enrolled (includes holdovers). It also showed 10,086 entering freshmen had ACT scores. Non-resident students made up 35.3% of total enrollment. Putting all that together suggests a range of 3,560 to 5,437 entering freshmen were Mississippi high school graduates.

A third source should have had the answer, Mississippi Lifetracks, now an Accelerate Mississippi project. But it has not been updated in several years.

Yuck. Surely, more of our high school graduates attend our public universities?

As for my question, IHL data for 2017 to 2022 showed a relatively flat trend in the total number of freshmen each year. So, most likely the number of high school grads going to our public universities has not increased.

Not a great rummage, huh?

“For now we see in a mirror dimly,” – 1 Corinthians 13:12.

Crawford is a syndicated columnist from Jackson.


32 comments:

Anonymous said...

ACT scores went down from 2020 to 2022 you say? Can’t quite put my finger on what was going on in the world those years. Seems like a lot of people were at the house “learning” online. Weird that scores would go down. Should just get smarter automatically.

Anonymous said...

I find it extremely hard to believe that MS students have made that much progress. And while graduation rates have increased, does that mean more students are meeting minimum standards. I hope I'm wrong, but I can't help but think that much of this so called progress is false.

Anonymous said...

Bill--please read the State Auditor's report on DEI and get back to us on why student enrollment rate is decreasing at our universities. The message is clear: if you are not part of the woke mafia, you are not welcome. Even in deep red Mississippi. Weren't you on the IHL Board? Why would they let this insidious movement spread? Maybe we should ask Empty Suit Al Rankins.

Anonymous said...

He is not exactly clear on what is being compared to what, but it would be nice to see average ACT over the last three decades and then look at all of the MDE and legislative schemes that were enacted over the years and how they played out down the road. I think that is what the author is trying to do here with third grade reading gate, but a wider picture would serve the purpose better. The buck stops with the ACT score.

Anonymous said...

Scary when you think that in 2020-2021 a lot of schools did not require the ACT so only the top students took it in order to win scholarships

Anonymous said...

Not sure Crawford ever took a statistics class.

Anonymous said...

Just wait til the 2020 third graders take the ACT.

Anonymous said...

Getting a handle on the raw data is very difficult. On the ACT, my son took it at least 4 times so which score do you count. Percentages alone do not reflect what is going on, you need the counts also.

Anonymous said...

Comparative evaluation of gross numbers to statistical findings are easily manipulated. Too many variables. Are more or less students taking the ACT?. Are more or less students attending out of state universities or attending trade schools? Are more or less students attending private, parochial, charter or home schooled?

Anonymous said...

Comparative evaluation of gross numbers to statistical findings are easily manipulated. Too many variables. Are more or less students taking the ACT?. Are more or less students attending out of state universities or attending trade schools? Are more or less students attending private, parochial, charter or home schooled?

Anonymous said...

The NAEP score increases are real and can’t be manipulated. They are the same test with the same scores given to a sample of students across the country. I hear your skepticism and probably well founded in some areas but the Nation’s Report Card (NAEP) can’t be clowned with by the education establishment.

Anonymous said...

@9:30
Nobody cares about the wimpers of the demise of white supremacy.
Universities are focused on teaching Emotional Intelligence (EQ)

Emotional intelligence (EQ) is the ability to understand and manage one's own emotions, as well as recognize and influence the emotions of others. It helps individuals relieve stress, communicate effectively, empathize with others, overcome challenges, and defuse conflict. Emotional intelligence is more important than IQ for success in life, according to some experts.

Emotional Intelligence is more sought after in the work place than IQ. Individuals with higher EQ earn more and are more able to adapt to emerging technologies as well as resolve conflict.

Perhaps you lack education. Perhaps you received an education that would be considered deprecated in the current century. Either way, few individuals with your attitude and lack of EQ will maintain leadership roles much longer.

Anonymous said...

Crawford is often WAY off target, but in this case...

MDE (and you better believe the IHL) have been well aware of the flat line (or even a decrease) of enrollment of freshmen Crawford mentions. That's why for the last 7 years or so the push to basically give away freshmen/sophomore level credits to HIGH SCHOOLERS under the scam of "dual credit" or "dual enrollment" has been taking place under taxpaying Mississippian's noses. 33% of college enrollments are this gimmick of dual enrollment, and the colleges/universities get to count that toward their funding requests/needs.

The community colleges and universities have been panicking about how to keep THEIR numbers flush (and growing...but it's wishful thinking). So in a silent but visible partnership - the MDE & IHL came up with this idea that they can front load thousands of highschoolers - and well, talk about playing with statistics....whatever the colleges and universities have been reporting about their "enrollment numbers" has been washed through all the junior colleges to "prime" the enrollment numbers toward university enrollment numbers. Biggest scam in Mississippi - and Pell Grants/Federal Loans pays for 90% of it.

Oh, and pretty much all of these dual credit courses are ONLINE....so it's bogus learning anyway - ask the students themselves. The purpose is to keep the state/federal dollars rolling toward the brick and mortar fiefdoms (campuses) which are not sustainable anymore, and they all know it.

Anonymous said...

With all of the talk about the education level going up in Mississippi it would seem like we would move out of last place in education. We didn't. Still in last place. Stoll at the bottom of the list.

Anonymous said...

$100 says Crawford can't score a 17 or 18 on the ACT today.

Anonymous said...

How ironic that after umpteen columns going out of his way to trumpet Mississippi's failures Bill Crawford now feels compelled to persuade our state that even a little bit of good news, even a small victory, is actually another failure-in-disguise.

Sure hope I can run across Bill Crawford on the street some day, in a grocery store or restaurant, just so I can look him in the eye, flip him the bird and tell him to fuck off.

Anonymous said...

Crawford's slow weeks must have reached rock bottom with this column. I know its hard to come up with 750 words every week to put into a column, but surely there was something more to write about this week then this nothingburger.

Anonymous said...

10:50am could have written a better article on the comparative performance of schools. My oldest child was brilliant from 3 years old, incredible memory, creativity, scholastics and athletics. Ultimately he attended under grad out of state but came back for med school, then back out of state for residency and practice.

The author's study should have focused only on K-12 public school performance comparison, then his conclusion would not have been so crippled with variables.

Anonymous said...

Cook the books - that what woke educators/administrator do. That's what we get for having a Supt. of Education making $300,000 per year, plus who knows how many perks that we don't see.

This is the highest paid supt. position in the U.S., but with the worst results. Go figure.

Anonymous said...

More kids going to college would not necessarily be a good thing. We need more electricians, plumbers, skilled craftsme, HVAC technicians etc. we need fewer college majors in gender studies, sociology, political science and law, among others.

College isn’t for everyone. Raise the entrance standards and give more college aid to those in needed professions like engineering, computer science, data protection, chemistry, math, and accounting.

Anonymous said...

Maybe the state should just stop spending so much money on the mandatory high school state tests and switch to the ACT as the official state test. A student’s ACT score is the only number that matters when it comes to easy scholarship money for college. GPA doesn’t really enter the conversation. That way, we get a better idea of how the public school system is doing educating our kids vs the rest of the country.

Anonymous said...

10:24am actually shows a problem with your analysis. If you are comparing very recent Mississippi ACT juniors with past ACT junior scores you have a problem. The state has only very, very recently begun requiring ALL juniors take the ACT. Previously it would have only been those that were college bound, wanted to take it, and paid for it themselves.

Anonymous said...

"Seems like a lot of people were at the house “learning” online"

Seems is a simple, yet complex word. That may prove to *you* that scholars were toiling under the flickering Coal-Oil lamp, trying hard to learn and looking forward to tomorrow's lesson over the internet.

Most of us know an alarmingly high percentage of students did nothing but fuck-off the entire they were banned from the classroom.

Anonymous said...

"On the ACT, my son took it at least 4 times so which score do you count. "

IIRC the highest score can be submitted by the student.

Anonymous said...

We need to pay the State Auditor to commission a study on how this phenomenon will certainly relate to the state's brain drain.

And to give that study credibility, we'll need the fellow at Supertalk Mid-day to volunteer for the focus group.

Anonymous said...

Anything that was "touched" by Carey Wright should be examined and verified by an independent and competent auditing firm.

Anonymous said...


Most people do not need a college degree.

For those that choose to go, study something thats marketable. Not too much of a demand for philosophers, poets, or most liberal arts majors.

Arts majors (music, art, theater, dance)-gotta be amazing or else its back to school for that MBA..

Science/Technology/Education (any emphasis)/Medicine/Business.

Anonymous said...

All you dumb-a's talking about not needing a college degree are CLUELESS and likely graduated when The Bee Gees were still big. Not that there is anything wrong with that but the days of walking onto a job site and getting trained on the spot as a persimmon green 18 year old are over. You have to go to a 2 or 4 year college to even get your foot in the door with any company looking for skilled labor (i.e., not the service sector). And by college, yes I mean community college, which us still college.

Anonymous said...

Apparently all you really need these days are a few nonsensical CIS classes, and maybe a few business courses. Then you can go and create your fake non-profit. Grab up a few worthless digital creators. Use any bogus philanthropic purpose and proceed to embezzle millions of dollars from private donors and state/federal grants and roll right on out as you please.

Anonymous said...

If the positive change in the numbers is totally attributed to the elementary reading gate, wouldn't it take time for that to manifest itself in scores among juniors and seniors in high school? I'm not sure exactly what the lag should be. But, there certainly should be a lag.

Anonymous said...

Generally speaking, one won't see an intelligent spouse married up and breeding with an unintelligent spouse. The intelligent folk, a small contingent, pair with the intelligent and breed sparingly; the unintelligent, a much larger contingent, pair with the unintelligent and breed precipitously. Consequently we can expect educational achievement in Mississippi and, indeed, all over the country, to decline year on year. It won't matter how well we fund public education, not. one. wit.

Anonymous said...

Thanks to Bill for showing once again how dumb he really is. He does a “deep dive” to get “the rest of the story” and picks a singular data point that is (obviously to anyone with a brain) greatly influenced by an outside factor. Moreover, he picks the wrong cohort to judge - illustrating he doesn’t understand it at all. If he understood the program, he’d know the First Graders and Kindergartners from that time are the real cohort to judge. They’re the ones who got the full benefit of the amended and enhanced instruction.


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