Shutdowns have become a mantra among some during the pandemic. However, do shutdowns actually work? A Stanford University team of researches asked that question and determined shutdowns have little effect on containing Covid-19.
Shutdowns have wrecked economies, thrown millions out of work, and forced governments to take on more debt. Kids suffered because they could not go to school. Suicides, overdoses, and substance abuse increases. Many forego their regular healthcare out of fear. Shutdowns create a great deal of friction between citizens and their governments. Shutdowns are the public health equivalent of a tourniquet. The question is whether such a tourniquet should be used in fighting Covid-19.
The team reviewed ten countries.* The team found there was "no clear significant beneficial effect" of shutdowns "in any country." What did the study find?
* "The possibility of large decreases in daily growth due to mrNPIs (shutdowns) is incompatibile with the accumulated data.
* If anything, the "direction of the effect size in most scenarios point towards an increase in the case growth rate..." (KF: Does this mean shutdowns worse then spread of the virus?)
What was the conclusion?
In summary, we fail to find strong evidence supporting a role for more restrictive NPIs** in the control of COVID in early 2020. We do not question the role of all public health interventions, or of coordinated communications about the epidemic, but we fail to find an additional benefit of stay-at- home orders and business closures. The data cannot fully exclude the possibility of some benefits.
However, even if they exist, these benefits may not match the numerous harms of these aggressive measures. More targeted public health interventions that more effectively reduce transmissions may be important for future epidemic control without the harms of highly restrictive measures.
* England, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, South Korea, Sweden, and the US.
** Non-pharmaceutical intervention
36 comments:
Shutdowns didn’t work
No shit because you couldn’t go to any of the “essential businesses” like the grocery store without seeing mouthbreathers and smoothbrains walking around with their faces uncovered. Even after the mask mandates you had the same type that rioted in National Capitol Building on here bragging about wearing their side arm but no mask and daring a “cuck” to challenge then.
The shut down was just a front to push UBI and other socialist policies.
They should study other counties where it’s implemented with mandated mask usage.
Works there.
It is strange to see studies like this being released now. It is almost like you can see the narrative changing in live time.
2:21 PM
Your kind has been demolishing small businesses all summer. The brainlet here is you.
I guess New Zealand and Australia weren’t studied. You know- places where Covid19 is squarely in the rear view.
Dr Scott Atlas is a Fellow at the Hoover Institute at Stanford. He pushed for herd immunity.
Meanwhile 400,000 plus have now died from Covid 19. More than we lost in WWII....
Not to worry because President Harris (too soon?) will fix everything, because she knows what is best for the little people, the unwashed masses.
@2:44 PM - spot on. The timing is beyond a coincidence. President Harris, err, Biden, will announce that the new policy is that all businesses and schools will open, blaming the surges on Trump, while apologizing to the Chinese for Trump blaming the pandemic on them.
But St Anthony says..........
Ought to see the line of freaked out folks here in Canton at the Health Department. MSANG and MHP on duty. Think it was an Inauguration or something.
I love it when craploads of money and 9 months of studying are spent telling us something that I could have told you in 5 minutes for free, 9 months ago.
Works there.
Link?
Newsweek: January 14, 2021
European Journal of Clinical Investigation | COVID Lockdowns May Have No Clear Benefit vs Other Voluntary Measures
There is no way to completely shut down an entire economy. People still need food, water, and utilities. The military still needs to operate. Best you can do is minimize it temporarily and then use mitigation and contact tracing to keep it under control.
Of course that only works if the general public practices mitigation. If they continue to go to pool parties, bars, nightclubs, packed churches, family gatherings, and all the places we know community spread occurs then it is inevitable it will flare back up just as if nothing was done in the first place.
A shutdown of sufficient length to eliminate the disease is not socially or economically feasible. The question is how much can we expect everybody to do to keep it controlled? I think we've seen here in America that we could have done much more with very little effort or effect on life in general, but there were a lot of people who politicized it and spread it deliberately just to prove their freedumb was intact.
@2:21 YES! You did good! You assisted the biggest wealth transfer from small business owners to the massive corporations YOUR kind used to hate, good job fucking over America!
I foolishly trusted the propaganda until recently.
It is probable that the Chinese Virus release, panic and shutdowns were planned to hit our economy and to shake up our election and leadership for the benefit of the Chinese primarily and their accomplices inside the USA - pretty simple math.
Naive no more!
Just wear a freaking face mask, use hand sanitizer, and social distance! It is that easy.
A shutdown of sufficient length to eliminate the disease is not constitutionally feasible nor enforceable.
On the bright side, WHO is changing how they count covid cases - a positive test does not equal a case. Amazing timing!
https://www.who.int/news/item/20-01-2021-who-information-notice-for-ivd-users-2020-05
WHO guidance Diagnostic testing for SARS-CoV-2 states that careful interpretation of weak positive results is needed (1). The cycle threshold (Ct) needed to detect virus is inversely proportional to the patient’s viral load. Where test results do not correspond with the clinical presentation, a new specimen should be taken and retested using the same or different NAT technology.
WHO reminds IVD users that disease prevalence alters the predictive value of test results; as disease prevalence decreases, the risk of false positive increases (2). This means that the probability that a person who has a positive result (SARS-CoV-2 detected) is truly infected with SARS-CoV-2 decreases as prevalence decreases, irrespective of the claimed specificity.
@5:19 What does pointing out that most MAGAtards refused face covering have to do with eCommerce?
Let me guess, you are a Qtard still trusting the plan for TWO MORE WEEKS!
"I'm not going to shutdown the country. I'm going to shut down the virus."
- Joe Biden, November 7, 2020.
I ain't worried about no stinkin' virus. Prez Joe said so!
7:59 Since when does the US Constitution become relevant? Freedoms of assembly, religion and speech are hogtied to save us all. The Bill of Rights is a tool of the Trumpers who want us to die.
Students at Harvard and Yale are pushing for the Constitution to be rejected. The Bill of Rights is license for the haters.
Did you read the entire article Kingfish?
“Here, we use Sweden and South Korea as the counterfactuals to isolate the effects of mrNPIs in countries that implemented mrNPIs as well as lrNPIs”
From MedPage:
During the months of March to early June, all shops were practically empty, people stopped dining with friends, and families stopped seeing even their closest relatives," Furberg told MedPage Today. "A lock-down could not have been more effective. Handwashing, excessive use of hand sanitizers, and staying home at the first sign of a cold became the new normal very quickly."
Yeah, none of that shit happened in the US enmasse. Hell, Mississippi has been ABLAZE with infections and people won’t even wear a mask or wash their hands claiming it’s a hoax or they know more than MDs and epidemiologists. United States folks ride on planes with known infections.
South Korea implemented widespread testing and contact tracing.
Essentially, the article is stating it’s hard to imaging Lockdowns doing MORE in those places than others... but it’s a false inference to say that lockdowns don’t work at all. That’s bullshit and isn’t what the journal article says. They don’t work better than the best practices the CDC indicated... but since the assholes in this state and country won’t follow simply fucking instructions? Lockdown it is.
5:31 - China now admits that some of the virology scientists from the Wuhan lab were bitten by Corona-infected bats while collecting samples in bat caves. It is logical to assume those infected scientists spread the virus to other people in Wuhan before they understood the risk, and I'm okay with calling that a lab leak, although I don't think it was a deliberate release to the entire world. The earliest media reports about the flu back in February and March '20 identified it bat flu but the paranoids and conspiracy theorists morphed a simple and plausible explanation into some of the wildest BS theories ever imagined, even in the fertile imagination of the various entertainers who call themselves QAnon.
I have equal disdain for Biden and Trump so I am not speaking from the dumb politics of the whole mess.
But I don't understand what Mississippi you guys live in?
I barely left my home from March to June and literally encountered zero humans that don't live in my house...and I live alone.
The few times I did venture out the streets were empty and almost all business was closed?
I am certain that many dumb families with kids invited a few folks in and out of their homes and yes the media had a blast with rednecks on the Rez and ignored the block parties in Jackson, but on a whole I cant tell if y'all are just rewriting what actually happened and being overly dramatic or was I the only one NOT out living life during the Quarantine?
So many seem to trumpet the claim that "nobody DID the Quarantine right" but from all I saw...Yes, they did?
You can't possibly expect lock down perfection, but my own experience seems to recall Spring very differently than many here and I still see majority compliance on masks and social distancing.
10:05 pm Thank you for reading the article and actually comprehending.
Don't you love the caveats in "research" that point out the research may well be unreliable?
The best chance of containment was to, early on, ban non- essential travel and require testing or quarantine for those who were essential.
But, what we know for certain is what super spreader events like Mardi Gras and Sturgis did. We see that despite efforts in sports, it only takes one careless person to spread the virus.
What we know is we are exceeding worst case projections if we didn't unite to defeat the virus.
And, those of you who are ignoring the long term effects of organ damage will pay later.
Thank goodness, I will have my second vaccination next month and can return to a more normal existence.
I find myself hoping that some of you will not bother since you don't believe in the virus and will leave the gene pool sooner rather than later.
Oddly, though, I saw a rush to get in the earliest group by doctors who , for politics or the reduction of patients in their specialties I suppose , had denied the virus was serious. Of course, they also knew that they and their families would get the earliest and best treatment if they did become ill.
We're going to have to change Biden's name to Walter......he looks just like Jeff Dunhams character 'Walter'.
A shutdown wouldn't even be on the table if everyone could be trusted to follow three simple rules: wear a mask in public, stay socially distanced from others, and use good hygiene. In this country there are just too many maskless, defiant idiots running around crying about "muh freedums" to reduce viral spread.
Not to call folks with underlying conditions "collateral damage", but on average, how many people die annually from the seasonal flu? Out of that group, how many people with significant underlying health conditions died vs. people who are otherwise healthy? Same with Covid... what are the numbers saying? To say "fOUr hUNdRed ThOUSand PeOPle HaVE diED FRom COVID!" seems medically/academically/intellectually dishonest. Four hundred thousand people died with a positive covid test result back. Did Covid cause/accelerate the death of some, sure. There will always be people who are more adversely impacted by a widespread disease...but what is it doing to the bulk of the otherwise healthy population? Shelter the vulnerable, take reasonable precautions when going out in public and get open the MF economy back open. The DEM leaders are, conveniently, starting to adopt this as their rallying cry post-election in Biden(actually Harris)-world. But where was this thought in NYC and California and Michigan months ago?
Be patient, grasshoppers Under Pres. Harris (too soon?) the curve will flatten any year now.
In other "news," on Jan. 20th (inauguration day for you JPS grads) the corrupt WHO announced that PCR tests don't work to diagnose Covid-19. This comes at the same time that 25th Amendment Sleepy Joe signed a resolution to rejoin the corrupt WHO. What a coincidence! Not!
Wow, WHO has a firm grasp on old news. PCR tests detect all members of the coronavirus family, and that includes the common cold. Duh!
They don't say lockdowns don't work. They do say there's no significant difference between them and less restrictive measures in terms of covid spread in the comparison regions. This is hardly definitive or non-problematic.
That doesn't mean lockdowns don't work, but your agenda is your prerogative, no matter how wrongheaded it may be. Also, one of the study authors is a signatory on the Great Barrington Declaration, which was an immoral piece of garbage document.
Please resume your regularly scheduled vigil for "The Storm." Be sure to keep those tinfoil hats tuned properly, friends. Fire away, yokels.
@10:05
Of course Kingfish didn’t read the article and if he did he interpreted it all wrong. Remember, he still lives in Jackson so he can’t possibly have a high functioning brain.
Did you?
@8:20 AM your observations are very accurate.
@10:05, NO, neither Mississippi or anywhere for that matter are “ablaze with cases.” The WHO just yesterday (we all know what yesterday was) said to dial back the cycle count on the PCR test because of the huge number of false positives. FALSE positives. You know, like those who “have Covid” but no symptoms yet are counted as a case. This was literally a political game that an innocent public was used as pawns in.
I learned a long time ago to look at the name of the authors of propaganda articles i see online. I often like to google them and look at their wikipedia pages. They almost all seem to have a common denominator in the section “Early Life”
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