Jackson Jambalaya

TSa a plateu, but not a downslope curve

It’s time to open things back up!

"While infections are increasing, the severity of the outbreak seems to be lessening". Is it an outbreak or a pandemic? Been called names over this as I have my opinion this is just that, an outbreak, by definition? By the way, and in all sincerity, anyone heard from Better than ever? Enjoyed reading him on this site.

I can't wait to go back to Ichiban and get that buffet. Mmmm....Mmmm good.

@10:51 it’s a pandemic meaning an epidemic across more than one continent. An epidemic vs outbreak because it is a new strain; if it returns at a later date it will be an outbreak.

There's a 50% chance, with a plus/minus daily error rate of 7%, that (I'll have to change each day) Better than ever will return with statistical data that is 70% accurate 30% of the time, plus/minus 100%. Of course these numbers are subject to change to fit my narrative.

All the data are pointing in one direction:

We need to be helping the elderly and people with serious preexisting conditions to isolate safely, while letting others get back to work.

This is a disease that overwhelmingly kills the elderly, but infects nearly everyone. Moderate isolation of everyone isn't just economically destructive, it provides a false sense of security to people who actually do need to be on complete lockdown in their homes.

LTCF cases (59%) and deaths (69%) are predominantly white. I'm sure those that seek to find racism in every aspect of life can find a race card to play with the LTCF stats also.

10:49, where in these number do you see a 14 day period of "downward trajectory"?

https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/#criteria

These numbers demonstrate that what we were doing two weeks ago was working. Let's see whether we're smart enough to keep doing it, or if the braying jackasses that populate some corners of this state will drown out the actual experts. As a life long Mississippian, I know where I'm putting my money.

IHME model says we hit peak our peak two days ago, but it will be a slow decline on the other side through at least the middle of May before there is a significant trend down.

Like Dr. Dobbs said, hospitalizations is the number to focus on in determining if we are getting this under control.

The numbers DO NOT justify a continued statewide lockdown.

These numbers demonstrate that what we were doing two weeks ago was working.

So, its working in Lauderdale County?

Let's see whether we're smart enough to keep doing it, or if the braying jackasses that populate some corners of this state will drown out the actual experts.

Tell you what, you sell everything that you have and give the money to those who are flat broke. Join their ranks then come back here to bitch about braying jackasses.





P.S. KF. While only 65 (24%) of Lauderdale's cases are LTCF, 55% of total deaths in the county of LTCF.

Like Dr. Dobbs said, hospitalizations is the number to focus on in determining if we are getting this under control.

Screw Dobbs. Managing hospital capacity is not my responsibility.

I really appreciate all you guys who are ready to brave this. If you're 50 or below just practice social distancing, wear a mask and most of all wash your hands. Please if you get sick seek treatment immediately. Lastly I am over 60, stay away from me as much as you can, I definitely won't be invading your space.

WE.....ARE.....GOING.....TO......DIE!!!!!!

Affectionately,

Team Chaos

Everyone has their opinions and feels they are right but this is hitting close to home for me. I know of a nurse who works with a nurse who has it and I know of someone's grandmother who died from it in Ridgeland. As for myself, I have very elderly folks in my life and for their safety, we are dropping things off and keeping a distance from them. Where my elderly in laws live, they know personally of people who have died from it (rural area). I don't know where I stand on a lockdown at this point but I know it's gone from something I heard about in other countries to now hitting way too close to home in my county.

So long as ICU and vent numbers stay low, we WANT cases to go up.

Studies are showing that huge percentages of the population have already had this virus with few or no symptoms. If it can burn through big portions of the population with little harm and develop antibodies, that's good.

As mentioned above, the elderly need to double down on shelter-in-place. For others, it's really starting to look like exposure is inevitable and tolerable.

"Red means run son, numbers add up to nothin."

As long as we have enough flashlights and lube, we will be just fine.

I wouldn't say a huge percentage of the population have already had the disease. The two communities that have done random testing are Santa Clara County, CA and New York City. Santa Clara had between 2.5% and 5% of the sample test positive and NYC had 13%. Given NYC density and sheer number of hospitalizations it is reasonable to believe they have the highest rate in the nation.

Once widespread testing is begun we'll have a better idea, but outside of the hotspot localities like NYC and New Orleans it is likely 95% of the population is still at risk.

I’ve got a source at UMMC who says layoffs are imminent. They’ve got the department heads together to discuss where the cuts will be. Apparently UMMC has lost >$100 million since this started. The CDC guidelines for outpatient services have killed the revenue stream.

So folks will either die from the virus OR die from starvation if the virus doesn't kill them.

How did the Heehaw song go?

"Doom.....Despair.....Agony on me...."

Best Wishes,

Team Chaos

Let's be conservative, ignore the NY study and the smaller studies from Boston, and assume only 5% of Americans have contracted it.

That's 328M x .05 or 16.4 million cases. With 50,000 fatalities.

Which would put the mortality rate at about 0.3%, or one in 333.

But (again, very conservatively) at least 2/3 of those deaths are among people over 60. That leaves the non-elderly with about a 0.1% mortality risk.

Which is the flu.

I agree more data is needed. But if the pattern above doesn't change, the strategy is clear: Help the elderly isolate. Let everyone else get back to work.

Once widespread testing is begun ...

So you want mandatory testing? Involuntary?

Despite all the attempts to figure this thing out and arguments over who is right, to me it's very simple: We either are, or we are not, going to following the Trump Administration's guidelines for lifting shelter-in-place orders. Here's the link:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/#criteria

Whether states and their people follow the guidelines is up to them, but let's at least be honest about the choice we are making. We either will follow Trump's plan, or we will not.

Bla, bla, bla. Enough is enough!

1:43 PM, as of a few days ago in NYC 84% of all deaths 60+, 65% of all deaths 70+. Those numbers may have changed somewhat since then but probably not by much. Based on KF's graph above, here in MS 89% of all deaths 60+, 63% 70+.

What I'd like, is a breakdown of what entities, and what individuals, stand to profit from peddling the vaccine, the tests, and the "tracking". I already know who's been getting rich off the instability this panic has created in the Stock Market.

This is a highly contagious disease. Estimates were 60% of the population would contract the disease in the first year without mitigation. Assuming a current 5% infection rate that means 12 times as many people would still get it. That also means deaths would go up by a factor of 12 which would be 600,000 dead. I personally don’t find that acceptable when some reasonable restrictions could cut that number significantly until therapies or a vaccine can be developed.

5:04 - Most Americans are going to get this virus eventually no matter what we do. The vast majority who die will be elderly. If they rigorously quarantine themselves, we won’t see hundreds of thousands dead, and we won’t have to commit economic suicide (aka “reasonable restrictions”) to protect the large majority of the population who are in very little danger.