Sunday, October 7, 2018

Bill Crawford: The Anomaly Versus the Tsunami

And so it begins, the anomaly versus the tsunami, the hope versus the expectation, the last Democrat versus the next-in-line Republican.

Mississippi's only Democrat holding statewide office, Attorney General Jim Hood, has officially announced his candidacy for Governor. His all-but-announced governor-in-waiting opponent will be Republican Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves.

The night before Hood announced, Reeves was on stage in Southaven pumping up the crowd in advance of President Donald Trump's highly partisan bashing of national Democrats. "They think they have a chance here," said Reeves, as reported by the Associated Press. "They got 'em a Democrat governor in Louisiana, they got 'em a Democrat senator in Alabama and they don't believe that there's a difference between Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama…. Let us send this message to the liberals all over the country: Not in our state."

"It's time for Mississippi to pull together," Hood said the next morning as reported by Mississippi Today. "It's time for this partisan, petty politics to stop."

These two episodes well describe how this epic battle will be fought.

Reeves will ride the tsunami of highly partisan, conservative politics now headlined by Trump that swept Republicans into control of Mississippi state government over the past 15 years. Hood will stand as the Democratic anomaly, a pro-life, pro-second amendment, Christian candidate who has withstood the GOP surge since it started.

Indeed, Hood is the only statewide Democratic candidate since 2007 who has attracted votes in Republican strongholds. Against a strong Republican candidate, Mike Hurst, in 2015, Hood carried 32 counties that Reeves won against Democrat Tim Johnson. He also carried 33 counties that Trump won the next year. In that 2015 election, Hood won with 55% of the vote, Reeves with 60%. In 2016 Trump won with 58%.


Among the typically GOP counties Hood carried were Alcorn, Forrest, Lauderdale, Lowndes, Pontotoc, Simpson, Union, and Warren. In the bastions of Republicanism – Rankin, DeSoto, Hancock, Harrison, and Jackson Counties – Hood scored 50% to 100% better than other Democrats except in DeSoto.

It is this ability Hood has to appeal to voters who tend to go with Republicans that give Democrats hope. "Hood is the only active state Democratic politician with the name recognition, fundraising abilities and favorability to make a serious challenge to Reeves," wrote columnist Geoff Pender a year ago.

Of course, it's one thing to hold on to a post as the incumbent, it's quite another to win an open seat for governor. In such situations money tends to talk. The Associated Press reported Reeves has well over $5 million on hand compared to Hood’s $750,000.

Then, favorable ratings with the voters matter too. A recent Chism/Millsaps poll shows Hood with a higher approval rating than Gov. Phil Bryant, 52% compared to 50%. Reeves came in at 37%. (See the Jackson Jambalaya blog for more details).

Some think the Hyde-Smith/McDaniel/Espy brawl that climaxes in November will be a barometer for next year. The thinking goes a narrow Republican win or loss would hold out hope for Hood, while a GOP landslide would suggest Reeves will win as expected.

The dinger to that is Hood's history of winning over usually Republican voters. He'll have to do that to knockout Reeves.


Crawford is a syndicate columnist from Meridian.

30 comments:

Anonymous said...

It's really going to be about the folks who don't go out to vote. Reeves is going to have a hard time getting the vote out, folks just don't like him.

Anonymous said...

Where's Kirk Fordice when you need him?

Anonymous said...

The Democratic party has changed. Open borders and higher taxes, just those two issues alone are enough for me to say no to the Democrats.

Anonymous said...

It will be a short lived victory for any Democrat who wins as we move ever faster to one party rule.

Politics is no longer about ideologies we think we understand though we still think so.

It's about winning by controlling the flow of information.

He who controls information, controls power.

And, with good hackers, one party can control electronic voting as well.

The Dems were pretty much gerrymandered into oblivion as it is with the diluting of urban votes.

But, Mississippi and other States with populations smaller than many cities, won't notice.

Anonymous said...

Hood is a Mississippian that cares more about people. Reeves is a Barbour puppet that cares more about preserving their self-serving status quo. In this race, the quality of the person will take precedence over the affiliation of a party.

Anonymous said...

After he loses Tater will lament, " if I only had my private drive to Dogwood"

Anonymous said...

Reeves is going to have a hard time getting the vote out, folks just don't like him.

You've posted the same garbage about Reeves here sooooo many times that you've gone full hackneyed into the absurd.

The MSGOP is going to have a hard time with GOTV? Keep fooling yourself. Reeves v. Hood will only be one race out of a long, long ballot.

Anonymous said...

Reeves does a great job in improving transportation infrastructure in select communities.

Anonymous said...

This is for Governor, not AG. The election has national implications. Being pro-life and pro-2nd won't be enough for Jim Hood when he has a national party that is VEERING HARD to the far left and their is NOTHING Hood can do from Mississippi to stop it.

You can bet YOUR LAST DOLLAR that both Espy and Baria would have participated wholeheartedly in the burn-the-country-down oppose-Kavanaugh-at-all-costs circus. Is that what you want Mississippi?

What was Espy thinking bringing in Garcetti? This is Garcett's Los Angeles of 13 working toilets for 2500 people.

The Democrat party DEFINES Jim Hood whether he likes it or not.

Anonymous said...

Hood will be elected gov. The hicks and rebel flag neckbeards can get ready for it. Midterms will also be a GOP slaughterhouse. Ms is about to go BLUE.

Anonymous said...

Any chance Hood runs as an Independent?

Paul Guillory said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

Name the Democrats who have said they want Open Borders please, so I can contact them. Also please cite when they said it.

Anonymous said...

Building walls and hating immigrants is a national issue, not a state one. And the GOP just recently raised taxes. Ask anybody with a fuel efficient car. Mississippi GOP is good at raising taxes on “those other people”. Not to mention the state budget is much larger now than 8 years ago. Fact.

Anonymous said...

12:09pm, that must be your nether end talking, surely your head has better sense.
After the beat down that the vile idiot democrats got for their ridiculous and untrue accusations against Supreme Court Justice Bret Kavanaugh it would be difficult for a democrat to get elected assistant dog catcher in Mississippi and most other places.
However, feel free to keep up your whining rant, but understand that we are not listening!

Anonymous said...

Bill - "Hood will stand as the Democratic anomaly, a pro-life, pro-second amendment, Christian candidate"..

How well do you think that position will stand up in a Democratic Primary if Hood is opposed by a traditional Democrat? Will Hood stand behind these positions he has tried to hide behind over the past few years? Or will he have to come out and appeal to the Democratic base in Mississippi - and defend his "Democratic traditions" in order to survive the primary?

Ask Bill Luckett how his campaign of appealing to the 'reasonable voters' from a Democratic stage worked? I'm sure you remember the corrupt Mayor DuPree's win in that primary - same will happen again if a known Democrat gets into that race in August. I'm sure Chairman Bobby Moak of Annandale will be working his tail off to try to stop it from happening, but even the Democratic Party can't override the law about allowing anybody that has the $15 filing fee from running.

Put Hood on a stage where he has to answer real questions - something that AG candidates never get tested by, although Gov and LtGov face it throughout the campaign. Let's see him actually defend those positions you feel will propel him to the top in those Republican Counties you show that he won running for reelection with no media looking into his positions.

Anonymous said...

I think 'known democrat', 'democrat base' and 'traditional democrat' are code words. Care to comment on my suspicion, 4:48?

Anonymous said...

Demoshits and Republicafuctups. Both parties have degenerated into palaces of idiots.

Anonymous said...

Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the Democrat controlled House’s inquisition of Tump will ensure Tate Reeves is the next Gov.

Anonymous said...

Who in the hell is Bill Crawford anyway?

Anonymous said...

Name a Democrat who is for open borders? Pick one. I've never heard one favor closing off the border or regulating foot traffic along it. Have you?

Anonymous said...

As Tip said, all politics is local, 11:02.

Anonymous said...

The Democratic party is all immigration to fill their party's need for voters. They are bound and determined to destroy this country and build it back as another socialistic failure. Mr. Hood will have to distance himself from these people a loooong way for me to even consider him. FWIW I don't like Tate at all.

Anonymous said...

WAPO PowerPost Analysis: All politics is local? In the era of Trump, not anymore.

Anonymous said...

"Hood will be elected gov. The hicks and rebel flag neckbeards can get ready for it. Midterms will also be a GOP slaughterhouse. Ms is about to go BLUE."

After mom cleans up your room and fixes your supper, let's meet somewhere and place a reasonable bet....say....a thousand dollars?

And you learned to think like this while being home-schooled?

Anonymous said...

Comments about Democrats are way off base, but generalizations generally are.

Anonymous said...

9:02,

Tip is old news. That use to be the saying, but it’s is not in 2018 and hasn’t been in last 10-15 years.

Anonymous said...

Tater is going to lose his personal driveway AND the election.

Anonymous said...

Speaking of politicians, I see an Espy ad over in the margin. He says he 'for immigration'. What the hell do you think that means? But, hell, he also says he's for jobs, economy, education, veterans and health care. That about covers the water-front. Wait! He left out NASCAR.

Anonymous said...

The word “for” does not appear in the Espy add.

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If you get tired come relax at the Fox News Tent. To gain admittance to the VIP section, bring either your Republican Party ID card or a Rebel Flag. Bringing both will entitle you to free drinks.Get your tickets now. Since this is an event for trolls, no ID is required, just bring the hate. Bring the family, Trollfest '07 is for EVERYONE!!!

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