Wednesday, October 31, 2018

Sid Salter: Runoff Certain for Senate Race

Democratic Gautier city councilman Tobey Bartee faces Republican U.S. Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, former Clinton administration secretary of agriculture and Democratic U.S. Rep. Mike Espy, and Tea Party Republican state Sen. Chris McDaniel in Mississippi’s U.S. Senate special election on Nov. 6.

 On paper, Bartee is an impressive candidate. According to his campaign website biography, Bartee earned a B.S. degree in mechanical engineering from the U.S. Naval Academy in Annapolis and later a master’s degree in public policy from Vanderbilt University. He served as an intelligence officer in the U.S. Navy and held analyst positions in the U.S. State Department and the Department of Homeland Security.

But if multiple independent polls are to be trusted, Bartee’s campaign isn’t getting any traction whatsoever and he’s projected to get less than three percent of the vote on Nov. 6. And unless Bartee or one of his three competitors gains 50 percent plus one vote, a runoff will follow on Nov. 27 for the top two vote getters.

At this juncture, the latest polls suggest that Republican Hyde-Smith is expected to make the runoff. Her polling numbers have been consistently rising since President Donald Trump’s Oct. 2 visit to DeSoto County for the express purpose of doubling down on his endorsement of Hyde-Smith in the county that gave McDaniel his largest vote in 2014.


Those same polls suggest that Espy is likewise expected to make the runoff. Like Bartee, Espy is an African American Democrat. Unlike Bartee, Espy has raised a formidable campaign war chest and has mounted a credible statewide campaign. With Mississippi’s black population coming in at around 37 percent, Espy’s chances of making the runoff are solid.

The race carries with it some caveats. Voter turnout expectations have been low in the 2018 midterm elections in Mississippi. With the state’s congressional races all but decided and with low voter interest in most of the state’s judicial elections, turnout remains a concern.

Low voter turnout presents some issues. The one candidate who would benefit from a low turnout would be McDaniel. Polling puts McDaniel’s numbers significantly behind both Hyde-Smith and Espy, but voter intensity from McDaniel supporter is high. His supporters will vote.

Then there’s the issue of the validity of the polls. Many observers believe that McDaniel voters are under-polling, as are some likely Espy voters. Those caveats acknowledged, there are some other voter behavior issues to be considered in assessing the race.

First, the majority of voters in Mississippi are women (52.5 percent). Women in the state have never had a serious chance to elect a female U.S. senator. It is a mistake to underestimate the appeal of a working woman candidate, particularly one whose work has been cattle farming and the operation of a stockyard.

Second, despite McDaniel’s steady attack on Hyde-Smith’s Republican credentials, the fact of the matter is that state GOP voters have twice handed her a win in a contested statewide general election races as a Republican candidate for state agriculture commissioner in 2011 (493,417 votes or 56.91 percent) and again in 2015 (433,295 votes or 61.47 percent).

McDaniel, in first and second race Senate primaries in 2014, received 157,733 votes or 49.6 percent and 187,265 or 49 percent. So far, in the real world, more Mississippi Republicans have voted for Hyde-Smith than have ever voted for McDaniel.

Third, there’s the whole “Remember Mississippi” business. For McDaniel’s zealous supporters, it’s a battle cry. But for many other Mississippi Republicans and crossovers voters, it’s a graphic reminder of one of the least gracious, most petulant and utterly childish responses to losing an election in the state’s history.

Bottom line, expect a runoff in the U.S. Senate special election in Mississippi, making it likely the last undecided U.S. Senate race in the nation.

Sid Salter is a syndicated columnist. Contact him at sidsalter@sidsalter.com


31 comments:

Anonymous said...

Women don't vote for women just because she's a woman.
We hold our gender to a higher standard than men hold theirs as we have to actually worry about whether or not the woman will be a good role model for all of us.

Bryant Hyde Smith Dishoners Vietnam Dead said...

We all know Salter is in the bag for Cindy Bryant Hyde and it's not accidental that Salter and his ilk are obligated to respond to the urge to refer to McDaniel as the Tea Party Candidate. Wonder why he doesn't refer to Cindy Bryant Hyde as 'former democrat and lobbyist for Obamacare'....you know - just to be fair.

Imagine though, if you will, McDaniel being a no-show at the Vietnam Wall replica in Flora last week after promising to show up. That would never happen.

http://mississippiconservativedaily.com/peanuts-and-biscuits-over-vets-cindy-hyde-smith-dishonors-those-who-served-in-vietnam/?fbclid=IwAR0_Z6IHCXqrp2t6Q2m6GttXktCMQUemqGnswv9T2sxbVqR_jv64BireyXQ

Anonymous said...

If that's all Hyde Smith got in her two Ag-Runs...she ought to be ashamed. Look who she ran against.

Anonymous said...

Once again, Sid spends an entire column stating the obvious. How does the guy get paid for his "insight?"

Matt said...

@ 8:12 a.m. The Rest of the "story"

Chuck Odom
October 29 at 2:50 PM ·
"I feel I need to respond to a post regarding the sitting senator, Senator Hyde-Smith and her attending another event rather than the Vietnam Traveling Wall . First, I am the President of the Vietnam Veterans of America- Brandon Chapter #1057. I also am one of the individuals responsible for the Wall coming to Flora.

While the Senator was asked to be a keynote speaker she had to adhere to a prior commitment and sent her heartfelt regrets and offered for her State Director, Umesh Sanjanwala, to come in her stead and stand in for her. He did come, BOTH days, and spoke eloquently and sincerely in relating the Senators feelings.

It was not a choice of “Peanuts and Biscuits” versus Speaking up for Veterans at this Wall dedication as a piece in the Mississippi Conservative Daily stated.

I have great respect for viewpoints other than my own but on this particular issue they have mischaracterized the event.

I did not even publicize the Agenda lineup intentionally but I guess it got out there somehow. We intentionally let all speakers know that this was not a political/campaign event but rather an event honoring our Vietnam dead and in fact all veterans. This event was sponsored by an organization that is a 501c19 entity and as such would not allow campaigning on the event grounds. One politician showed up after being told personally not to campaign at this event but chose to ignore these requests and did it anyway. Shameful."

https://www.facebook.com/chuck.odom.18?__tn__=%2CdC-R-R&eid=ARDzX80D33VRbGjplZbPRZgjI5LDK6BMD06xS70CsD6-7JaD_PNdKsqkifMrt3fnE1eyM96mWcp-ZfSk&hc_ref=ARQc7cEYEd98qk33VTNv2aqmB9AKYFfdkadc9FJ5ES1iWwmE1cuYyYh_c9sdlUXDqvc&fref=nf


Anonymous said...

The MSGOP establishment is very worried.

Anonymous said...

What's going to be funny is when all the protest votes are counted and the runoff is between Espy and McDaniel.

Just hold your nose and pick one.

Anonymous said...

Let’s just PRAY that conservative Mississippians have learned something from the election of Trump; i. e. how reckless never Trumper’s were! His two SCOTUS appointments (so far) could literally save our country from Mob Rule Leftist Totalitarianism. Yet Trump’s election happened without the help of many so-called conservatives proving how “principled” they were by declaring Never Trump, since they didn’t get their way.

Leftist don’t let morals get in the way of electing who they want to represent them; i. e. the politicians that will give them what they want. Massachusetts voters having elected evil scum Teddy Kennedy to the U S Senate for 4 more decades after he killed Mary Jo is just one example. There may be no family more evil than those Kennedy’s, but Leftist almost swoon over them, and consider them as royalty!

Another is the Leftist belief that crushing the skull of an 8 month old human being is just fine, as long it is still in the womb. One day history will judge this evil just as we judge Nazism responsible for the extermination of 6 million Jews.

Leftist love and embrace lawlessness as long as its for “their cause’ and reward terrorists like Bill Ayes and Bernardine Dohrn with jobs teaching our kids, encourage Mobs to harass those they disagree with, then wail and gnash their teeth when some nut job gets pushed to a breaking point and starts mailing bombs to Democrats, knowing full well they have been hoping all along they could push another Timothy McVeigh mental case into doing something horrible; because to Leftist, the end justifies the means.

So, here we are again. Conservatives are split between Hyde-Smith and McDaniel. And when it comes to the courts, the absolute most important reason to vote Republican, it really maters not which one goes to the U S Senate.

Voting for Hyde Smith is the best bet. Espy taking up for McDaniel and the Jackson Free giving him an interview proves who they want to run against. Having said this, if McDaniel beats Hyde Smith and is in a run off with Espy, I will be McDaniel’s biggest fan. Hopefully all other Hyde Smith voters will as well, and hopefully McDaniels voters will provide full support to Hyde Smith if she’s against Espy.

Otherwise Repubs eat their own (again) and Mississippi ends up with a Mob Rule Leftist Totalitarian Chuck Schumer puppet in the U S Senate.

Anonymous said...

9:20... need to refill your meds (put the tin foil hat away).

View Through The Smoke said...

That post by the Nam era president is bullshit and should be dismissed since he is a Hyde supporter and his community knows it. If this dunce didn't want this to be a political event, why would he invite a politician in the middle of her struggle to be elected and allow her stand-in to 'speak eloquently' on her behalf, 'both days'. That's what's shameful. The Vet Rep has lied. But that's not unusual for the Hyde group.

Here's the truth.

Her people said she'd be there.

She decided there was no percentage in showing up.

She actually thinks of Flora as a suburb of Canton.

She believes Flora, like Canton, to be an AA community.

She thought it best to send a radical AA whose family is Clinton-connected, to attend, hoping he could sway some Espy votes in her direction. This was a joint decision by Bryant and her handlers. It backfired.

This solemn event should never have had politicians involved from the outset, but this man decided to do that. As in he Mayberry episode, the only politician allowed to speak should have been the mayor, welcoming the event to the town.

I Was There said...

To Recap:

"While the Senator was asked to be a keynote speaker...she offered for her State Director, Umesh Sanjanwala, to come in her stead ...He did come, BOTH days, and spoke eloquently and sincerely in relating the Senators feelings."

"We intentionally let all speakers know that this was not a political/campaign event...would not allow campaigning on the event grounds. One politician showed up after being told personally not to campaign at this event but chose to ignore these requests and did it anyway. Shameful."

Ah...OK. If you had specific rules about no politicking, why did you invite a woman to speak who is in the midst of a campaign for federal office? And why do you allow her surrogate to 'speak eloquently and sincerely on her behalf' about her being off somewhere campaigning for federal office and unable to attend?

And why was this Umesh character allowed to move through the crowd handing out push cards and suggesting folks vote for Cindy, after he spoke? I saw it! Or did you overlook that in your zeal to exclude the other candidate?

"Shameful"? You got it. On YOUR part.

Anonymous said...

9:20 when your grandchild reads history and learns you voted for the likes of the current administration, they will be embarrassed and appalled.

Anonymous said...

1018, elected officials are invited on a daily basis to attend and speak at events thought the state - and of course cannot accept all of those invitations. Sending a 'represdntative' of the office is common practice - nothing at all about her deputy COS speaking for her in this case, just as her COS attended the coast function earlier in the week. Most people understand that a person, no matter their office and position, can be in multiple places at once.

The McDanielites are attempting to politicize this Flora event to cover up for their totally inappropriate, but not uncommon for them, actions when they were asked to quit using this memorial event as a campaign backdrop. But since to Chris it's all about Chris and nothing else, he chose to ignore the sponsors and make an ass of himself.

Guess at least it's better that he busted into an outdoors gathering rather than into a nursing home or a courthouse. Maybe he is getting a little more constrained.

Anonymous said...

Greeting Comrades From Mother (R)ussia we had a nice conversation with some of your US GOP Senators on July 4th of this year, we won't you to know that we have your back.

Anonymous said...

If the Republicans lose a Senate seat in MS they can thank their own RINO, Chris McDaniel. He is diluting the general election vote and has absolutely zero chance of beating Espy in a run-off. Regardless, he will be a two-time loser and still highly esteemed by the inbred dimwits for taking on "The Establishment." His whole campaign is a poke in eye.

Pappy Odaniel said...

What will be interesting is when McDaniel and Cindy end up in a run-off. Talk about night of the long knives.

Anonymous said...

CONSERVATIVES just remember Franklin D. Roosevelt’s grandfather Warren Delano’s quote “While all Democrats are not horse-thieves, all horse-thieve are Democrats.”

Since the popular mode of transportation is no longer horseback but the very same holds true today, one could say, “while all Democrats are not carjackers, all carjackers are Democrats;” or “while all Democrats are not thugs, almost every thug is a Democrat.”

So vote for whoever you prefer, Hyde Smith or McDaniel, then offer your full support to the whoever ends up in a runoff with the “Democrat.”

Anonymous said...

It has taken me several years to not make my ballot decision based on the supporters of the candidate. I voted against McDaniel a few years ago because of kooks that supported him. But he was still the best candidate. This time, I'll hold my nose and vote for him and maybe stay off the internet for a few weeks if he wins because it will definitely be a kook party.

Anonymous said...

Thank goodness that after Nov. 6, we shouldn’t see the good Senator from Jones County on a statewide ballot again. Cindy beats him by 20, leads Espy by 10 and wins the runoff 60-40

Anonymous said...

Do y’all think Espy and Hide-Smith will split the Democrat vote? Lol

Anonymous said...

If you're worth less than $50M and you think that any of these three give a damn about you, you are a complete imbecile. The US Senate is completely controlled by billionaires who are busy squeezing what's left out of you so they can get the upgraded underground bunker instead of the regular one. Just keep fighting with each other a little longer...

Anonymous said...

In the end, it's all going to be race-based politics. The white vote will come through for whoever wins between Hyde-Smith or McDaniels, with GOP leadership praying McDaniels doesn't beat Hyde-Smith and all of America watching a run off between Espy vs. McDaniels.

If the run off is between Hyde-Smith vs. Espy - McDaniels supporters will pinch their nose and stay true to race and party.

Here's Your Hat.. said...

2:00 A.M. - You immediately fail to attain credibility when you can't even spell the candidate's name correctly. Please put on this pointed hat and sit on that stool over there.

Anonymous said...

Does any rational person of any color really think or expect that the vast majority of black voters will vote for anyone other than Espy, especially in the primary? Sure, it is "racial politics" but why should black voters vote for Hyde-Smith or McDaniel or not vote for Espy (or Bartee)? And a part-two Espy question: does any rational person think any MS Dem will vote for Hyde-Smith or McDaniel rather than Espy or Bartee?

Assuming black voters and Dems do vote for Espy (or Bartee), does any rational person really think or expect the majority of remaining voters across the state, of any color, will vote for McDaniel over anyone, much less the anointed MSGOP candidate?

Lastly, how does any rational person explain any other outcome than Hyde-Smith and Espy as the only realistically possible winners of the jungle primary?

Sure, it is possible (albeit implausible) that one of those two could win it all in the primary, and one of the two candidates in the runoff will, of course, win the race. Therefore, it would seem that the real question for most voters is, "Do you want Hyde-Smith or Espy as your next senator?" and vote appropriately. Even if McDaniel were able to pull off a miracle and survive the primary, there is no reasonably plausible way he defeats either Espy or Hyde-Smith in the runoff. Hyde-Smith has a "solid core" of likely primary voters of about 35%, Espy about 30%, McDaniel about 10%, and Bartee 1-3% (in the primary only), which leaves about 22% to decide the primary. All Hyde-Smith and Espy have to do is each get a small portion of that remaining 22-ish% to survive the primary, i.e., Hyde-Smith at 37%, Espy at 32% and the primary is over, even if McDaniel somehow got all of the remaining 31%.

I'd predict today Hyde-Smith 40-ish, Espy 35-40-ish, McDaniel 20-ish, and Bartee less than 5, followed by Hyde-Smith winning with 50-plus-ish over Espy's 50-minus-ish. I don't expect the order or results to change, although the percentages might shift around a bit, especially in the runoff.

Anonymous said...

...especially in the primary?

... of the jungle primary?


Can any rational person of any color or political persuasion explain why the windy, tangential and erstwhile prognosticating rational person @ 11:49 has concluded that the special election next Tuesday is a primary, jungle or other?

Anonymous said...

I do not understand why working class and poor people of all races keep falling for the lies of the elected left and right. We should rise up, so that we can have our voices heard. We need to start locally first, then eventually build out once we get control of our local municipalities.

It is sad how the rich has used class/race/whatever to divide a class of people for generations to remain in power and control of our towns, cities, states, and nation. Remove the wool from over your eyes and see the truth. Join with all of your neighbors and take control of your towns for the good of all, instead of a select few.

Never mind, we are all too content being sheep playing with shiny, worthless trinkets to distract us from the real issues.

Anonymous said...

Please enumerate the "real issues" November 1, 2018 at 12:54 PM.

I hate Nazi's said...

@ Here's Your Hat.

2:00 A.M. - You immediately fail to attain credibility when you can't even spell the candidate's name correctly. Please put on this pointed hat and sit on that stool over there.

Oh goody, a paper nazi. Nice try, however, I don't need your validity to know I am right.

I am pretty sure you need that pointed hat to attend your Klan rally with "McDaniel" later on.

Anonymous said...

11:49....There IS no primary!

2:27....Sorry, but you do deserve a dunce hat for not even knowing how to spell the name of the candidate who you've been told you don't like. And you don't even know why. lol.

I REALLY hate Nazi's said...

@ November 1, 2018 at 5:25 PM

how to spell the name of the candidate who you've been told you don't like. And you don't even know why. lol.

Well, I be damn! I came across the real life version of Ennis Del Mar and Jack Twist!? I bet the two of you go corn holing together on the weekend.

At least with Ennis, his whole point was the spelling - but you just had to go two steps further with projection Jack!? Where in my post did I say I didn't like "McDaniel"? Then to add more fuel to the fire, you go on to say I don't even know why I wouldn't like him? LOL!

Clearly you and good ol' Ennis need to go on your little annual camping, kayaking, or canoeing trip and do whatever it is y'all do out there. These jokers are telling folks they can't think for themselves, LOL! Really!?

Too many of you closet bigots run around here on JJ with a false sense of superiority. You better humble yourselves.

JJ Closet Bigot #31 said...

Too many of you closet bigots run around here on JJ with a false sense of superiority. You better humble yourselves.

You are clearly one powerful and respected anonymous person whose opinion we should carefully consider.

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