Stimulated by Trump’s tax cuts, the national economy grew 4.2% in the second quarter (final BEA estimate), up from 2.1% in the first quarter. Corporate profits jumped 3.0%, up from 1.2%. The national unemployment rate at 3.9% is the lowest since December 2000. Total nonfarm employment is nearly 150 million, the highest ever. And average wages are the highest ever.
This should be hallelujah time for those in charge, i.e. Republicans.
It’s not. That nasty thing called uncertainty is the problem.
“The one thing all human beings do when they are confronted with uncertainty is pull back, withdraw, disengage,” said former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, “and that means economic activity, which is really dealing with people, just goes straight down.”
Uncertainty over continued economic growth is rising. Increasing oil prices due, in part, to sanctions on Iran; rising inflation due, in part, to tax cut stimulus during an already rising economy; other price increases due to tariffs; increasing costs for health care; and rising interest rates have the potential to negatively impact consumer spending. With consumption accounting for approximately 68% of GDP, lower consumer spending would slow economic growth.
Indeed, Kiplinger cautions growth will slow in the third and fourth quarters and average 2.9% for the year. The Conference Board forecasts growth will slow further to 2.3% by the end of 2019 due to “domestic and foreign headwinds.”
Those foreign headwinds include the growing likelihood for an all-out trade war with China and a shooting war with Iran, plus decaying relations with long-time allies, particularly Germany, Canada, and Turkey.
Uncertainty over whether last month’s uncertainties – the future of FBI U.S. Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, Mueller investigation guilty pleas, keeping government from shutting down, and the Kavanaugh nomination – will be replaced by another big set of serious uncertainties is of concern.
Who will be in charge come January after mid-term elections is another uncertainty, escalated by Trump’s comment that there will be “violence” if Democrats take control. So too is what impact the rapidly rising national debt, spurred by massive new spending, will have on the economy.
Much uncertainty, of course, comes from the President himself.
“It takes quite a President to preside over an economy with unemployment rates below 4% and not to benefit politically,” read an opinion piece in the Huffington Post.
The New York Times reported that Mick Mulvaney, the federal budget director, told a gathering of party officials in early September that Republicans would fare better in November’s elections if they could “subtract” the president’s divisive persona from voters’ minds, and stress instead that the country is in a “pretty good” condition.
“You may hate the president, and there’s a lot of people who do, but they certainly like the way the country is going,” Mr. Mulvaney said, adding of voters: “If you figure out a way to subtract from that equation how they feel about the president, the numbers go up dramatically.”
An article in the Washington Examiner pointed to Trump’s low approval rating and predicted “grim tidings” for Republicans in mid-term elections.
A glimmer of hope for Republicans is there is still over a month for uncertainty to dim while the economy will still be sparkling.
Crawford is a syndicate columnist from Meridian.
Sunday, September 30, 2018
Bill Crawford: Uncertainty Dims HallelujahTimes for Republicans
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23 comments:
I used to be a Democrat, never again though. Trump 2020!
The Lynn Evans of Jackson Jambalaya.
After all that has gone on this week, all the economy has been doing, and all that the President has done to stand up for America and our ally, this former anti-Trump voice is on board for Trump 2020 and will be voting straight red this fall. I have had enough of the Godless Dems. They have no vision, give us no hope, and are full of HATE. Not the Democrats of the 1990's. I've had enough! GOP and Trump, you've won me over.
As long as Trump can pour gas on the economy fire he's safe, since the average U.S. voter cares most about the economy. Until he runs out of gas. When he does, and he will sooner or later, the fact that he is an egotistical asshole and possible psyche job will become pivotal to his future(and ours). Maybe he can keep pouring gas past the next two election cycles. Perhaps not. He's spending money at the same rate or more than the Democrats, but he's just spending it with the money brokers not the poor and middle class. That's a guaranteed stimulant, but how long can you do it. That's the question. When it ends, Trump will be one scary S.O.B. to have as President. Have a good day.
It should be impossible to find fault with Mr. Crawford's post. Independents will not as there's just no quite enough Independents.
26% of us are loyalists to the GOP and 27% of us are loyalists to the Dems who both tell us the sky is either falling or will remain beautifully blue depending on who's in control.
The Independent 44% of us think the sky is falling because the partisan 50% of us who cling to FOX or MSNBC have unpleasantly infected nearly every aspect of life with their political fever ( beyond furor to a sickness).
Unless Independents shelter in our homes with a book and our phones on silent, we can't escape the doomsday predictions should the other side win. Nor can we escape, even at social events, the bullying to pick one side or the other. Independents see both parties as being outrageous or disingenuous or disgusting ( the latter becoming more common) even though some of the issues embrace have our support.
Hard to maintain optimism or hope about anything in such a climate especially about the economy.Both parties tend to excessively reward to reward themselves at the expense of others. We just don't see that as fiscally responsible.
44% of us don't want to be either a" Demon crat" or a " Deplorable" and find both terms indecent.
We have come to understand that the 26-27% of partisans see deviation from mantra as proof of being " the enemy". And, both parties seem to think subjecting Independents to insults will frighten us into submission or silence. Partisans will never get submission and the silence is from those who regard you as unreasonable. Independents just won't buy into the anger or intolerance of your extremists so most of us choose avoidance.
Oh, we know we'll be seen as your enemy should either side reach it's ultimate goal...to force your will on all the rest of us...just "collateral damage" in the Civil War being fomented by partisanship and aided by our foreign enemies should one party win absolute control.
So , partisans leave us no choice but to vote against the side in power to prevent your ultimate goal. That's what mid-terms have been for a long time. And, Independents will have to keep it up until both parties learn to play nice. Then , we might again can have a common goal, the best interests of ALL the People and not just a few.
Thank you , Mr. Crawford and I trust you will continue to speak for those few left in your party of choice who appeal to Independents. Others have been forced to join us, but we admire those who tough it out and try to restore sanity.
Ditto to 10:01's comments. Trump is a disaster waiting to happen. The fool just announced that he has fallen in love with the psycho leader of North Korea. WTF? How can any rational person support him?
9:58 Before you march in lockstep to either party's drumbeat, before you drink the Kool-Aid, before you "vote straight red", think for yourself. Neither party gives a damn about you unless you can threaten their power. Remember that. Hold your vote and your support because unless you are really rich that's all you've got. Make your demands and hold them accountable, then give your support to WHOEVER empowers you!
The posts by Trump supporters are so predictable. They care about their wallets and nothing else. If I am “ Godless” because I care about the disadvantaged, the right of a woman to chose, America’s commitments to its allies, and basic human decency, so be it. My conscience is clear.
If any of you "Independents" think that prosperity cannot be snatched away from you, you are "whistling past the graveyard". The Liberals have no intention of letting the average person control their own money because they know better how to spend it than you do. Never forget that.
While you dem socialists piss and moan about the lack of free-everything, tell me why you'll never hear any of that first paragraph (of Crawford's) on any of the national news media channels. Maybe they are squeezed for time, right?
3:16 Right. Unless it's for the military or corporate subsidies, then the conservatives know better how to spend it than you do. You are soooo right.
Trump is pumping the economy by doubling the national debt. The people in the red hats will be wiped out when it blows up. Economists, stock brokers, etc. are saying the same thing, it is fool's gold.
I just want to here y'all in January.
5:47
only one President has doubled the national debt. That was between 2009 and 2016. Care to criticize him?
> thought not.
Its looking like a landslide in the house and maybe the senate too....remember elections have consequences....Impeach 45!!!!
5:47, you are correct about Obama. But published statistics project that Trump in four years will increase the deficit more than Obama did in eight years. You may Google to find the publications.
But published statistics project that Trump in four years will increase the deficit more than Obama did in eight years.
Link or BS.
3:25 Who cares about the deficit now? We've got the economy blowing like a drag racer. If it comes off the track in 10 years so what. That'll be somebody else's problem. Enjoy the ride! MAGA!
3:54 PM It will be a disaster for young people who will have to pay for all of the evil done by Trump. It will not take 10 years to hit bottom.
A Democrat is a Democrat. The paty comes before God, family, or country.
11:34...I really hope you can find peace and comfort in your basement with wave music, warm coffee and a good book. Meanwhile, the world will continue to revolve around the sun and the rest of us will continue to make political decisions based on our view of reality. I know it's hard for people like you to sit on that thin fence rail on such a rotund ass, but best to you as you continue with that non-approach to life.
@6:01pm, why just the evil by Trump? Has Trump derangement blinded you to everything before his administration? How can one man cause so much insanity? When people complain of the national debt, I chuckle with amusement. Every dollar printed on behalf of the non Federal Reserve Board, is printed from a position of debt. The U.S. government has no money of its own, neither is it in control of the money supply. The game is rigged, it's not hidden. That's right boys, and girls, that means the money in your possession is not yours. Pull some of that worthless paper out, and examine it. At the top on one side it says Federal Reserve Note. Someone owes the Federal Reserve Board the monetary amount of the bill. There is no currency, legally, but Federal Reserve currency, how do you propose the debt to be repaid?
10:45 pm The same can be said about Republicans.
The hypocrisy of both parties is beyond the pale!
Indeed, the leaders of both parties snicker at their " true believers" and have been doing so since the mid 70's.
The political pros know with more accuracy now how to push your buttons to get you to push theirs. They have ever so much more information about you. They know which buzz words and photos will fire you up. They know your fears and how to pump your ego so you think you are smarter and more intuitive than those who disagree with you.
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