The stock market is in a secular bull market and has years to run, says one respected analyst. A major trading firm, on the other hand, warns the end of the bull run is near.
A recession looms says a Bloomberg.com headline. FED Chairman Jerome Powell says the economy is likely to continue booming for at least another three years.
CNBC says trade conflicts and tariffs won’t hurt the economy. The White House Council of Economic Advisors warns tariffs will hurt economic growth.
Whether it’s the trade war with China, potential peace with North Korea, détente with Russia, or peace in the Middle East, the arguments fly on both sides by respectable forecasters.
It seems the only thing certain these days is uncertainty.
Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle sort of explains this in physics, It says that we cannot know things precisely; the best we can do is calculate probabilities.
So, while uncertain, there is a high probability rising interest rates coupled with growing budget deficits and the surging national debt will impact the economy.
While uncertain, there is a high probability that if Democrats take over the House the President will double down on his negative tweets.
And while uncertain, there is a significant probability that the Strait of Hormuz will become the flashpoint that puts the U.S. at war with Iran and maybe Russia.
Huh?
Tensions between the U.S. and Iran are once again flaring in the Strait of Hormuz, the 21 mile wide strait between Oman and Iran through which about one-third of international oil shipments pass.
Last week a top Iranian admiral said Iran has taken over control of the Strait. Not so, responded Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. But Iran’s anger at the U.S. has led to conflict there in the past.
In 2012 Iran threatened to close the Strait, which led to diplomatic talks that resulted in the nuclear agreement President Trump has now trashed. There were military clashes in the Strait between the U.S. and Iran from 1980 to 1988, as Iran mined the waters to threaten shipping. This ended with a military defeat for Iran in 1988 when the U.S. decimated several Iranian warships and suffered no losses.
A retired Navy air ops commander remembers war-gaming the closure of the Strait numerous times. “When the Blue (us) forces attacked the Orange (Iran) naval assets, it always ended up involving, in those days, the USSR. A lot has changed since I was a sailor, but it is an open secret that Iran’s major patron in the world community is Russia. So far, this has played out in a seemingly controllable theatre in Syria, although half a million casualties there would not likely agree that their war is ‘controllable.’ An escalation of tensions in the Strait that results in shooting would, in my humble opinion, be disastrous.”
He is uncertain that cooler heads like Pompeo and Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis could keep Trump from jumping into an unnecessary war with Iran to divert attention from issues at home.
Remember that Mississippi National Guard and Air National Guard troops deploy regularly to support our military activities in today’s “controllable” theatres. Unnecessary shooting wars of any duration will increase their risks. Nothing uncertain about that.
Crawford is a syndicate columnist from Meridian.
46 comments:
5 deferments during Vietnam,when it comes to miltary conflict, all the president knows how to do is Run.
When are you guys going to snap out it.
That’s not what Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle says. What it says is that you can know where a particle is, or its momentum, but the more surely you know one of them, the less surely you know the other.
10:11 am He had a uniform in military school and loves the pomp and attention. He is Commander in Chief now and has " the football" > His experience has been that thinks buys everything and nearly everybody. So what if he doesn't understand the law or government, domestic or international, and doesn't want to listen to those who do? So what if his priorities are based on his feelings rather than the list of threats foreign and domestic. He's worried about a Mexican or Canadian threat, not one in the China Sea or making sure we could add enough boot to the ground wit allies before just the sheer population deficit for China or all Muslims in the world would start to be a factor. I mean we are outnumbered when you get down to how many of us would have to kill how many of them. What could go wrong?
Oh wait...Korean War and Vietnam and our own Civil War where arrogance Trumped ( capitalization deliberate) blunted our ability to strategize?
10:11 is right. Trump is a coward. And he lacked the common decency to honor the death of a true hero, John McCain. I hope Trump never has to make a war time decision.
The future has always uncertain.The Federal Reserve wants to push the US into recession for political reasons. Bloomberg has liednumerois Times and also wants recession. They fought the tax cuts ruthlessly and lied about the provisions in an attempt to defeat it.
As opposed to Obama/Hillary's stellar performance at Benghazi. Weak.
Just remember folks Clinton wasn't elected and Obama is long gone, by you guys along with Trump keep bringing them up.
What exactly makes John McCain a "true hero"? One or two events would work.
He refused an early release as a POW in Vietnam so others could be released. He voted his conscience instead of political expediency. He fought literally and figuratively to preserve our country’s standing around the globe.
What have you done to question my characterization of him?
I support Trump policies, but, McCain was a real hero. I spent one year in Vietnam during 1970-71. It was a Army turd nugget tour. I would be woke up at night by cockroaches crawling on my arms & legs. Viet Cong blew up our ammo dump and the wall locker which held my M-16 fell on my head. Required 20 stiches. I low crawled out of my houch to the bunker while other soldiers trampled on top of me. Can't imagine spending 4 years there.
(1.) North Vietnam was going to release him. But, McCain declined. He spent an additional 4 year in North Vietnam Hanoi Hilton! Jane Fonda went to the Hanio Hilton & spat on American prisoners.
(2.) He volunteered to fly combat missions North Vietnam!
Interesting to see the wartime pussies on here claiming McCain is/was a hero. At least they took a break from cyber games and Maddow in order to comment here.
Right off the bat I'm wondering what the definition is of a 'secular bull market'. Since the word secular means that which is absent religious connotation or influence, what the hell is this guy talking about? I read no further.
Plato postulated that the heat of the meat and the mass of the ass are constant as long as the angle of the dangle and the length of the tunnel are directly proportionate. This proves Crawford to be a babbling fool.
The fact that he just plain survived so many years at the Hanoi Hilton is pretty damn heroic.
KF, the fact that he was there proves he was not a hero.
Are you beginning to understand that "Trump Logic"?
5:33 "KF, the fact that he was there proves he was not a hero. "
So, all POWs were villains? Thanks for clearing that up for us.
Trump is doing what's best for our country in the long term, not necessary the short term. He doing a good job, even though he is battling BOTH sides of the aisle. Congress nor the Senate respect him because he isn't one of them, and they are afraid he will expose all their dirty games they play on the American people.
5:33: Go f yourself, chickenhawk coward.
McCain suffered horribly and should be praised for that service. McCain is being praised for avoiding the hard vote on Obama Care. The media is lionizing for the "courage" to part with his party. How much courage does it take when the major networks are a chorus advocating for you to support Obama Care and you comply?
Had McCain voted in favor of undoing Obama Care the media would be talking about McCain's involvement in the Keating scandal instead of McCain's heroism.
He was required by his oath to state his name, rank and serial number. Along the way he got confused and said he had killed and maimed Vietnamese citizens and that his country was wrong for doing so. Meanwhile, the ghosts of the Forestal dead haunted him until earlier this week. And THAT is your definition of a 'hero'?
I'm telling you KF, these Trumpets have gone mad. When the Republicans have to work with the Democrats in January it's going to be be fun to watch. Trump will turn on his own party. It's easy as talking for him.
McCain was my definition of a hero. 1:30 am is my definition of a coward.
The Forrestal story was debunked years ago.
McCain’s position on the possibility of left-behind POW’s in Vietnam was reprehensible. That is enough to disqualify him from hero status in my book.
Well, I'm amazed at all those who are certain that torture can be withstood because they saw it in the movies. Please, let me break your bones you and starve you and pull out your fingernails.
Good God, most men can't tolerate passing a small kidney stone or a slipped disc for hours much less years.
Everyone of those prisoners seriously thought of suicide and most found ways to try. All you weekend warriors make me sick.
And, the men who claimed to be at Benghazi admitted under oath, during the Congressional hearing on Benghazi, that they lied and weren't even there despite Dinesh Souza's( pardoned felon) propaganda movie.
Unless all of you want to be convicted without one whit of evidence like you are convicting others, I suggest you get facts before being no better than a nasty gossip monger.
10:45, what are you talking about and what is the source of your information?
Link please to the "Forestal story being debunked."
And also a link to "the men who claimed to be at Benghazi admitted under oath, during the Congressional hearing on Benghazi, that they lied and weren't even there..." which is just more liberal bullshit.
As usual; If something is posted on the Jackson Jam-BULL-eye-ah blog, it has to be true. Even if uttered by the Blog-Admin.
The audacity of Trump to chastise Sessions for procecuting those who are his supporters, just because they are his supporters.
358, what would it take to satisfy you and the totally unsupported blogs it defamations? The official DO investigation - or would you of course answer that what 'you've read' on some undocumented website to the contrary? Snopes? Pundit facts? People who were there? No, I'm sure that your World news website rumor mill is much more accurate.
.can you provide one source for your accusation? Link please.
3:58 just Google Forrestal John McCain to access several confirmed sources.
https://www.thenewamerican.com/usnews/politics/item/29882-mccain-was-no-maverick-on-pows
http://www.unz.com/article/mccain-and-the-pow-cover-up/
6:21/6:28 what impeccable sources. Unz - the guy who 'claims' he has an IQ of 214, and denies the Holocaust. I'm sure that we should all take what he says at face value. And, the magazine of the John Birch Society.
Come back again when you can produce some real sources. In the meantime, read the official reports of the accident, or the reports of the POWs who actually spent time in the Hilton with McCain and the other heroes that suffered while you either weren't a glean in your daddy's eye (assuming you know who he was) or while you were sitting on your ass back here at home with your deferments.
That’s what I expected. Attack the source. Easy and requires no thought. Provide a factual source that debunks any factual statement in either article. I’m genuinely interested.
6:53 - those links deal with McCain’s efforts to prevent any investigation of the possibility of POWs left behind after the war. Did you even read them?
Sadly there are voters walking around unassisted who actually believe the bullshit found at fake link-sites like those posted above. Tom Head and his crew of lively dancers are alive and well. And somehow they are multiplying. And the crew that follows people like Jeff Good and those who believe loft apartments will save Jackson. This whacked-out bubble on the edge of our larger demographic is displeasing to the gods.
The Republicans must not realize that payback is Hell.
Actually, 6:03, what you are witnessing now (in Mississippi and nationally) is Republican-Payback. Enjoy. Popcorn in the lobby for you non-participants.
In the meantime, read the official reports of the accident ...
Link?
Hogan and his men were real heroes.
Hey 6:23, I am not worry about payback, and Democrats shouldn't either. The Republicans have sold their soul to Trump, they could have made a better deal with the devil.
Is that the best you've got @9:17?
Read Woodard's book and get back to me 10:38.
6:02...Woodard is 80 years old and on a steady diet of pablum.
6:02 - Learn to spell Woodward's name and get back to us.
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