Thursday, January 14, 2016

GOP lost in 2012 because 4 million Republicans stayed at home. Oh really?

Did President Obama win re-election because Republicans didn't go to the polls? Such is the argument made in the conservative media.  John McCain received four million more votes than Mitt Romney.  Its easy to fall into the trap of blaming your own side after a loss.  However, the peddlers of this meme get it wrong as they are focusing on only the popular vote instead of votes in individual states.  The 2012 electoral reality was that Mitt Romney increased Republican voter turnout in seven of the nine swing states while the votes for President Obama fell in the remaining two states.  The swing states are where the votes really matter and it is where the GOP actually did better but still fell short. 

JJ first posted this analysis on November 8, 2012.  The numbers posted below are based on the results posted by the various Secretaries of State at the time.  The Republicans will be better served if they ignore that four million disappearing votes mantra and focus on the fact they lost states where they increased their votes.  Losing because one was backstabbed by his own team instead of getting beat by the other side is always a popular theme among losers.  It allows one to ignore reality while puffing himself up with pride.  We would have one only if so and so had ______.   It's always easier to blame someone else, you see. 

The states examined are Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Virginia, Nevada, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, and Michigan. The trend for Obama was across the board: fewer votes in all swing states. However, the Republicans were able to increase the votes for Romney in seven of the nine states. However, those two states were big: Ohio and Pennsylvania although the Obama losses were much larger 236,080 in Ohio and 389,142.

Republican differences in the swing states
Ohio: -80,702
Meechigan: +62,500
Wisconsin: +146,313
Pennsylvania: -60,711
Florida: +79,241
Colorado: +61,581
Iowa: +42,565
Virginia: +48,977
Nevada: +49,780

Here are the actual swing states. SOS results were used where available.

Mccain: 2,674,491
Romney: 2,593,789
Difference: -80,702

Obama 08: 2,933,388
Obama 12: 2,697,308
Difference: -236,080

McCain: 2,048,639
Romney: 2,111,139
Difference: +62,500

Obama 08: 2,872,579
Obama 12: 2,560,015
Difference: -312,564

McCain: 1,262,393
Romney: 1,408,706
Difference: +146,313

Obama 08: 1,677,211
Obama 12: 1,613,950
Difference: -63,261

McCain: 2,655,885
Romney: 2,595,174
Difference: -60,711

Obama 08: 3,276,363
Obama 12: 2,887,221
Difference: -389,142

McCain: 4,045,624
Romney: 4,124,865
Difference: +79,241

Obama 08: 4,282,074
Obama 12: 4,180,697
Difference: -101,377

McCain: 1,073,584
Romney: 1,135,165
Difference: +61,581

Obama 08: 1,288,576
Obama 12: 1,252,269
Difference: -36,307

McCain: 685,363
Romney: 727,928
Difference: +42,565

Obama 08: 830,909
Obama 12: 816,429
Difference: -14,480

McCain: 1,725,005
Romney: 1,773,982
Difference: +48,977

Obama 08: 1,959,532
Obama 12: 1,885,952
Difference: -63,580

McCain: 412,827
Romney: 462,607
Difference: +49,780

Obama 08: 533,736
Obama 12: 529,005
Difference: -4,731


Anonymous said...

The GOP is it's worst enemy. Once they figure out that the vast majority of America doesn't really give a rip, for example, about gay marriage or prayer in public schools, they'll get off their bandwagon and start addressing the real issues people care about. Namely, the economy, jobs, exploding deficits and the corruption in Washington, DC. I'm been voting for the GOP for over 40 years and lately, all I can count on is that sooner or later, the Republican candidate for President will come up short. McCain and Romney, is that the best we can do???

Anonymous said...

If the vast majority of Americans don't care about gay marriage, why is it that whenever the issue of approving gay marriage is put to a vote, it is overwhelmingly defeated? Even California, one of the most "progressive" states defeated it. Only the courts force that issue on the citizens. Try to change the facts much?

Anonymous said...

The republicans will never win another presidential election. Because stupid people vote for stupid people for stupid reasons. In other words, stupid people (democrats) vote for stupid people (democrats and crooks like Hillary) for stupid reasons (free stuff).

When the republicans learn to address this, they may have a chance. Until then, get ready for President Sanders (or Clinton)

Anonymous said...

I find it hard to understand why Republicans have control of 2/3 of the State Legislatures, 31 or so Governorships, the Senate and the House of Representatives yet cannot win a Presidential election. I think it is because of the "Old Guard" candidates. Trump or Cruz have the best chance in '16. They are conservative like Obama is liberal. Those fence sitters will lose......again.

Anonymous said...

8:25 apparently hasn't been paying attention to trends. While it my be true that the liberal's favorite pet social issues like gay marriage have consistently been defeated in referenda, the trend is that the margin of defeat has fallen precipitously. Our culture is quickly falling away from traditional values and mores. 7:13 is correct, politically, when he/she suggests that traditional campaign approaches are no longer successful in general elections. Hell, the most popular candidate on the "republican" side has very little in common with the "moral majority" of yesteryear.

Anonymous said...

The Pubs have had years to groom a viable candidate, now it looks like we'll have alah trump. I don't like or trust the don, but will vote for him vs a democrap. Is he electable? I have serious doubts. Regardless, we are doomed again.

Anonymous said...

Unless Trump or Cruz are the nominee I'm randomly voting for any of the 3rd party candidates. FUCK the RINOs.

Anonymous said...

Me thinks the cultural trendwatcher @ 8:48 would posit that the "trend" of radical Islamic death violence is also on the wane. They've stopped outright throwing gays off the roofs of buildings and the trend of gay heads getting summarily detached via blade from their torsos is also trending downwards. The Iranian gays have it much better. They are only hung by the neck to die.

Anonymous said...

While the margin of defeat may have fallen precipitously, it is still defeat. Yes, the trend is that traditional values have been moved away from, and I find that heartbreaking.
As for the GOP, they are as much at fault as anyone for the explosion of debt, job losses (remember NAFTA and that giant sucking sound of jobs moving to Mexico?) and corruption. There is very little difference in the establishment GOP and the Democrats.
I agree with the sentiment posted by 8:51.

Anonymous said...

9:00, 8:48 here. Go look up the latin phrase non sequitur. Your post was a brilliant and inspired example of same.

toejangle said...

I think 8:51 just explained why the Republicans can't win a Presidential election----It's that school ground mentality "If you aren't going to play my way then I won't play at all" That gave us a second Obama term and it will give Hillary a first term !!

Anonymous said...

Republicans acted like they cared about the deficit...then W came along. He spent more money than any democrat could on war and social programs. He carpet bombed with hundreds.

That's when traditional republicans had enough. They realized that R and D were the same in DC when it came to fiscal matters and social matters for that much.

so the R base went back to basics. Hate black people, gays, latinos, etc. That hate metric was picked up by Koch Brothers (and like people) and they thought they could have major influences in politics...and it worked really. Governors and state houses are filled with Rs.

Problem now is you have Trump who is unmanageable. He will not be the go to guy for big banks and business....well...nobody knows for sure......and certainty is why these people spend billions to elect their people.

Economy crashes....look for hate to rule. Gays will be in peril. Immigrants will be in peril. Muslims will be hunted. And Democrats will be hard to come by.

Anonymous said...

Look for president Bernie. How many states are really 'in play'? 7?

Anonymous said...

The GOP can't win the Presidency until it stops fragging its base in the back. There is no difference between the Democrats and the RINOs.

toejangle, feel free to whore yourself out.

Anonymous said...

This is a serious question. Does anyone really think there is a difference in a democrat and a republican? There might be a few minor differences but they are mostly the same.
All politicians, both sides, have put us into debt so deep our grand children could not get us out even if they paid a 100% tax rate. It wasn't one party that did that. It took both.
Politicians have no idea what is good for the average citizen as they were never average citizens.
The voters will continue to argue that one party is better than the other and the people will continue to suffer their ignorance.
There should be an IQ test for voters. We have tests for just about every other thing but not for the most important thing, choosing our leaders. We usually let the people who cannot spell their own name elect our leaders.

toejangle said...

To 10:24 am
Stand up a little straighter your knuckles are dragging

To 10:33 am Thank You !! Excellent Post !!

Anonymous said...

Not only did Romney do better in the swing states, he also did better nationally than McCain. Romney got more popular votes than McCain (60.93 million to 59.95 million). The "4 mm vote gap" was based on the first returns on election night and was not the final vote count (e.g. Absentees, slow reporting precincts, etc).

Kingfish is right to focus on the swing states. But even before getting to that point, the continued misrepresentation of the actual voting results by conservative media to perpetuate the myth that the lack of a base turnout cost us the 2012 election is irresponsible and does harm to the cause of winning in 2016.

Source of actual results:

Anonymous said...

How is it that a member of a political party will demand a member of the other political party be put into prison for some act but then turn around and defend a member of their own party for doing the exact same thing? Are the voters really that ignorant? Are their morals really that low?
We need to do away with all political parties. Let the people run on their own qualifications. Make things simple and honest.
When we have an election for president the person with the most votes is president. The person with the next highest number of votes is vice president.

Anonymous said...

Don't worry @1:57 PM. The RINOs are doing everything possible to lose the 2016 election without needing any help from the "conservative media". There will be no need to trot out any myths this time around.

Anonymous said...

8:25 is right. 7:13 is wrong. There are a large number of people who still think that right and wrong cannot be molded like play-dough. The social issues speak to who we are as a people.

Anonymous said...

7:13, right and wrong varies quite a bit from person to person. Something that is right for one person is wrong for another person. The problem we have is some people think they are allowed to decide what is right and wrong for everyone. That is one case when that person is very wrong no matter who they are.

Anonymous said...

In 2011 I was shocked and dismayed with a long time friend
claimed she would never vote for a Mormon. I asked would
you rather be voting for the same person who had just about ruined
America? How stupid can people be?

Anonymous said...

The context and timing are important. In 2008 the Republicans were paying the price for Iraq and Bush's miserable approval ratings.By 2012 Obama gave voters stuff to be mad about.

I give no credit to Mitt being a better candidate.

Anonymous said...

Sort of funny. People voted for Obama because they were tired of the Iraq wars. Now we are still in Iraq and several other countries. Our military can't even whip a street gang.

Anonymous said...

Couldn't resist - have to put my 2cents worth in the mix. The GOP positioned and fully supported two milk-toast candidates in 2008 and 2012. No fight in them. They were scared to death of the PC crowd. And now the PC madness has come to a boil. Why is Trump doing so well? Simple really, he is saying what many think but fear to say. He is poking the GOP leadership in the eye which is what many conservative voters want. In the past most had no where to go but the GOP establishment candidate(s). This time is different. And the beauty of Trump is you never know what he will say! And that terrifies his opponents. Why? Because he will drag them into the mud kicking and screaming. When wrestling with a pig you are both going to get nasty...but the pig loves it. And Trump is the King of Pig Wrestling. This is going to be more fun than a barrel of monkeys.

Anonymous said...

The most laughable concept in this whole debate is that the Trump/Cruz folks claim that they 'are the base' and that everyone else is a RINO. Much of the support being shown for these two come from folks that haven't voted in years along with many Dems. But yet, they claim to be the "republican base" and anybody else that won't play ball with them in their sandbox with their toys and by their rules can just go to hell as far as they are concerned.

No wonder the Republicans have trouble winning national elections. The Dems have everybody voting en mass whether they are from the far, far left through to the middle left. But in order to get a majority by using the conservative side the ones to the far right demand everyone move to them or else they are going to bail out just to see if they can cut off their nose to spite their face.

And to top it off - Trump hasn't said or done anything yet to show what his political stance is. Historically he sure hasn't been the conservative he is trying to claim now without specifics or facts, yet a large part of his support doesn't give a damn. They just like the fact he will insult anyone that gets around him just so he can show off his entertainment ability.

Anonymous said...

@9:20 sounds like that idiot Frank Corder.

Much of the support being shown for these two come from folks that haven't voted in years along with many Dems.

Show us.

... anybody else that won't play ball with them in their sandbox with their toys and by their rules can just go to hell as far as they are concerned.

You've just described the Mississippi Republican Party to the letter.

Anonymous said...

Trump hasn't said or done anything yet to show what his political stance is.
Please don't tell us you actually believe all of the lies other politicians tell us when they tell you what their political stance is?
You can't possibly be that ignorant. But then you probably still vote for the party instead of the person.

Anonymous said...

Thad Cochran has told Mississippi for his entire time in Congress that he is against budget deficits. Then Senator Porkulus votes for more deficits every single time.

Anonymous said...

Thad does not know where he is most of the time. It would be nice to know who actually is making the decisions for him. He isn't led around by the arm for nothing.

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Trollfest '09

Trollfest '07 was such a success that Jackson Jambalaya will once again host Trollfest '09. Catch this great event which will leave NE Jackson & Fondren in flames. Othor Cain and his band, The Black Power Structure headline the night while Sonjay Poontang returns for an encore performance. Former Frank Melton bodyguard Marcus Wright makes his premier appearance at Trollfest singing "I'm a Sweet Transvestite" from "The Rocky Horror Picture Show." Kamikaze will sing his new hit, “How I sold out to da Man.” Robbie Bell again performs: “Mamas, don't let your babies grow up to be Bells” and “Any friend of Ed Peters is a friend of mine”. After the show, Ms. Bell will autograph copies of her mug shot photos. In a salute to “Dancing with the Stars”, Ms. Bell and Hinds County District Attorney Robert Smith will dance the Wango Tango.

Wrestling returns, except this time it will be a Battle Royal with Othor Cain, Ben Allen, Kim Wade, Haley Fisackerly, Alan Lange, and “Big Cat” Donna Ladd all in the ring at the same time. The Battle Royal will be in a steel cage, no time limit, no referee, and the losers must leave town. Marshand Crisler will be the honorary referee (as it gives him a title without actually having to do anything).

Meet KIM Waaaaaade at the Entergy Tent. For five pesos, Kim will sell you a chance to win a deed to a crack house on Ridgeway Street stuffed in the Howard Industries pinata. Don't worry if the pinata is beaten to shreds, as Mr. Wade has Jose, Emmanuel, and Carlos, all illegal immigrants, available as replacements for the it. Upon leaving the Entergy tent, fig leaves will be available in case Entergy literally takes everything you have as part of its Trollfest ticket price adjustment charge.

Donna Ladd of The Jackson Free Press will give several classes on learning how to write. Smearing, writing without factchecking, and reporting only one side of a story will be covered. A donation to pay their taxes will be accepted and she will be signing copies of their former federal tax liens. Ms. Ladd will give a dramatic reading of her two award-winning essays (They received The Jackson Free Press "Best Of" awards.) "Why everything is always about me" and "Why I cover murders better than anyone else in Jackson".

In the spirit of helping those who are less fortunate, Trollfest '09 adopts a cause for which a portion of the proceeds and donations will be donated: Keeping Frank Melton in his home. The “Keep Frank Melton From Being Homeless” booth will sell chances for five dollars to pin the tail on the jackass. John Reeves has graciously volunteered to be the jackass for this honorable excursion into saving Frank's ass. What's an ass between two friends after all? If Mr. Reeves is unable to um, perform, Speaker Billy McCoy has also volunteered as when the word “jackass” was mentioned he immediately ran as fast as he could to sign up.

In order to help clean up the legal profession, Adam Kilgore of the Mississippi Bar will be giving away free, round-trip plane tickets to the North Pole where they keep their bar complaint forms (which are NOT available online). If you don't want to go to the North Pole, you can enjoy Brant Brantley's (of the Mississippi Commission on Judicial Performance) free guided tours of the quicksand field over by High Street where all complaints against judges disappear. If for some reason you are unable to control yourself, never fear; Judge Houston Patton will operate his jail where no lawyers are needed or allowed as you just sit there for minutes... hours.... months...years until he decides he is tired of you sitting in his jail. Do not think Judge Patton is a bad judge however as he plans to serve free Mad Dog 20/20 to all inmates.

Trollfest '09 is a pet-friendly event as well. Feel free to bring your dog with you and do not worry if your pet gets hungry, as employees of the Jackson Zoo will be on hand to provide some of their animals as food when it gets to be feeding time for your little loved one.

Relax at the Fox News Tent. Since there are only three blonde reporters in Jackson (being blonde is a requirement for working at Fox News), Megan and Kathryn from WAPT and Wendy from WLBT will be on loan to Fox. To gain admittance to the VIP section, bring either your Republican Party ID card or a Rebel Flag. Bringing both and a torn-up Obama yard sign will entitle you to free drinks served by Megan, Wendy, and Kathryn. Get your tickets now. Since this is an event for trolls, no ID is required. Just bring the hate. Bring the family, Trollfest '09 is for EVERYONE!!!

This is definitely a Beaver production.

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Jackson Jambalaya is the home of Trollfest '07. Catch this great event which promises to leave NE Jackson & Fondren in flames. Sonjay Poontang and his band headline the night with a special steel cage, no time limit "loser must leave town" bout between Alan Lange and "Big Cat"Donna Ladd following afterwards. Kamikaze will perform his new song F*** Bush, he's still a _____. Did I mention there was no referee? Dr. Heddy Matthias and Lori Gregory will face off in the undercard dueling with dangling participles and other um, devices. Robbie Bell will perform Her two latest songs: My Best Friends are in the Media and Mama's, Don't Let Your Babies Grow up to be George Bell. Sid Salter of The Clarion-Ledger will host "Pin the Tail on the Trial Lawyer", sponsored by State Farm.

There will be a hugging booth where in exchange for your young son, Frank Melton will give you a loooong hug. Trollfest will have a dunking booth where Muhammed the terrorist will curse you to Allah as you try to hit a target that will drop him into a vat of pig grease. However, in the true spirit of Separate But Equal, Don Imus and someone from NE Jackson will also sit in the dunking booth for an equal amount of time. Tom Head will give a reading for two hours on why he can't figure out who the hell he is. Cliff Cargill will give lessons with his .80 caliber desert eagle, using Frank Melton photos as targets. Tackleberry will be on hand for an autograph session. KIM Waaaaaade will be passing out free titles and deeds to crackhouses formerly owned by The Wood Street Players.

If you get tired come relax at the Fox News Tent. To gain admittance to the VIP section, bring either your Republican Party ID card or a Rebel Flag. Bringing both will entitle you to free drinks.Get your tickets now. Since this is an event for trolls, no ID is required, just bring the hate. Bring the family, Trollfest '07 is for EVERYONE!!!

This is definitely a Beaver production.

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