Jackson Jambalaya

As the $3 billion stimulus impact provided by Congress winds down, businesses spend out their Paycheck Protection Program loans, and the extra $600 in weekly unemployment payments ends, is Mississippi’s economy ready to go it alone?


Both the president and the congress agree more stimulus money is needed to keep the national economy going, but they cannot agree on how much.

Lacking another big stimulus, Axios.com reports that economists see rising permanent layoffs, increasing long-term unemployment, and the increasing number of men losing jobs as indicators another recession looms.

Gov. Tate Reeves, apparently, agrees additional stimulus is needed. He announced a temporary plan in late August to continue paying higher unemployment benefits, up to $300 a week for some recipients. "We will see how it works for the next few weeks,” he said.

President Donald Trump by executive order had authorized states to pay an extra $400, with the state putting up $100 to get $300 in federal dollars. Reeves said Mississippi didn’t have “an extra $22 million a week” to cover the $100 payment. Instead he worked a deal to allow the state’s existing payments to cover the $100. However, only recipients who were getting $100 or more per week will qualify for the extra $300. Low-wage recipients getting less than $100 will get nothing extra. (The average pre-pandemic claim in Mississippi was $213.)

In March the state’s unemployment trust fund had a balance of $706 million. In July alone, the state paid out $96.7 million for 657,190 weekly unemployment claims. The trust fund balance would have been cut in half but for an extra $181 million contribution from federal pandemic funds. With that, the balance still fell to $489 million. (A year ago in July there were only 53,257 weekly unemployment claims costing $8.5 million.)

The state unemployment rate zoomed upward to 11.5% in July from 6.3% a year ago and 5.1% in February. Forty-six of 82 counties had unemployment rates higher than the state rate with the highest being Jefferson at 25.7% and Holmes at 21.7%.

Through July, the pandemic had cost Mississippi thousands of jobs. The employment number was 105,800 lower than the previous July. It was 90,800 less than the February 2020 number.

Several job sectors suffered double digit losses year over year. Arts, entertainment, and recreation jobs fell 75%, information jobs 15%, natural resources and mining jobs 13%, construction jobs 10%, and educational services jobs 10%.

The big sector losers by number of jobs were health care and social assistance, down 6,700; state and local government, down 6,200; arts entertainment and recreation, down 4,700; construction, down 4,200; accommodation and food services, down 4,100; and manufacturing, down 3,600.

Surprisingly, retail trade numbers in July were back level as were those for real estate, rental, and leasing.

Mississippi’s 48th ranked workforce participation rate also fell year over year, from 56.6% to 54.6%.

As pandemic numbers ebb and escalate in Mississippi and additional federal stimulus funding stalls, what lies ahead for the state’s economy? CNBC reported economists are giving 1 in 4 odds for another recession.

Gov. Reeves is right to be concerned.

“Do not lose heart” – 2 Corinthians 4:16.

Crawford is a syndicated columnist from Jackson