Thursday, January 2, 2020

Moody's Says Mississippi Lacks Reserves for Recession

Is Mississippi government prepared to withstand the next recession? Moody's doesn't think so.  The ratings agency published a report last month that reviewed state rainy day funds and found Mississippi wanting.  The AP reported:

After a couple years of robust tax collections, states across the U.S. are better prepared than ever to weather a potential recession, according to a report released Monday that examines states’ savings.

The good news in the report from Moody’s Analytics is tempered by the reality that one-fifth of all states still have nowhere near enough money set aside to survive a recession without resorting to spending cuts or tax hikes. And some states with healthy surpluses haven’t specifically designated them for rainy day funds, meaning lawmakers and governors still could spend the money before a recession occurs...

A total of 28 states have enough cash on hand to offset a projected decline in tax revenue and rise in Medicaid spending that would stem from a moderate recession, Moody’s Analytics determined. An additional 12 states are close enough — within 5 percentage points of the amount needed — that they also could likely avoid taking drastic measures to keep the state afloat.

That’s an increase in the share of all states in reasonably good financial shape since a similar Moody’s Analytics report last year, which found two-thirds of the states were prepared. States rich in natural resources such as oil, gas and coal were among the leaders in building reserves to guard against a recession. Wyoming, Alaska, North Dakota and Texas all ranked near the top of the Moody’s Analytics list.

States have been able to build surpluses largely because a robust economy has generated more tax revenue than had been budgeted. After two years of slow growth in tax collections, state general fund revenues grew by 6.9% in the 2018 fiscal year and by additional 4.2% in 2019, according to the National Association of State Budget Officers....

Moody’s Analytics found 10 states with a greater than 5 percentage point shortfall in the amount of reserves necessary to survive a moderate recession. Louisiana ranked the worst, followed by Illinois, Kentucky, Oklahoma and New Jersey. Rounding out the bottom 10 were Pennsylvania, Mississippi, Arkansas, New Hampshire and Florida.... Rest of article

The rainy day fund has improved but apparently Mississippi still has some work to do.


18 comments:

Anonymous said...

Not too long ago, they seemed to bragging that the rainy day fund was full. What am I missing to believe a reserve account can never be full?

Anonymous said...

I think it is because of the beef plant-

Kingfish said...

My guess is its gotten better but not good enough to satisfy Wall Street.

Anonymous said...

I don't understand??? Tate and Phil have bragged so much about their conservative fiscal management. What happened?

Anonymous said...

Mississippi's government is too large and complex for a state of its size - prepare now by embracing technology consolidation/simplification and reap the benefits later.

Anonymous said...

@3:34
We lack the educated population of most successful states. We worry about SEC football too much to look around at other places.

Anonymous said...

@5:32 PM
How can that be true? Mississippi spends an enormous amount of money on education. JPS has an enormous budget as well. SEC football provides scholarships to under represented minority athletes.

The real problem is all of the handouts that are provided to the children of criminal illegal aliens and other urban democrat voters who are unwilling to work for the pay they are qualified for.

Anonymous said...

Shhhhh, we have an inaugural ball coming up. Everything is fino

Anonymous said...

Thanks Tater for reducing the state’s income by passing the Reduce Taxes for the Rich Folks Bill.

Anonymous said...

5:32, c'mon; get your priorities straight.

Anonymous said...

In a day when we're all being encouraged to expand, grow and refine technology, along comes 3:34 with a warning to "embrace technology consolidation/simplification", whatever in hell that means. Perhaps he will tell us.

Anonymous said...

6:06, c'mon, get your facts right.

Eliminating the lowest income tax bracket is a cut that helps the lowest income folks the most.

I know. Truth and facts being put in front of you could be an embarrassment - guess that's why you troll hidden behind your no-name.

Anonymous said...

Gov. “Pay to Play” Reeves is too busy with the $250,000 meals with the inner circle to worry about this stuff.

Marilyn Brookes said...

To 6:06 : I was not aware that any one person could pass a law by himself. I thought a whole lot of other people had to agree. And by the way, why are so many of you "anonymous"? I use my name. Are you not as brave as a 75 year old woman?

Anonymous said...

Mississippi's government is too large and complex for a state of its size - prepare now by embracing technology consolidation/simplification and reap the benefits later.

The Mississippi Department of Corrections can barely adequately staff a facility to keep riots from breaking out and offenders from getting killed; Department of Public Safety keeps begging the legislature to add 100 troopers every year; Public Safety can not staff DMV locations; Public Health cannot inspect facilities due to shortages; Banking and Consumer Finance, along with the State Auditors office keep losing auditors to the feds and other states because they can't pay their people with a livable wage.....................

But @3:34pm - says Mississippi's government is too large and complex?

o.k. - SMH!

Anonymous said...

7:08; 3:34 here. What I'm saying is that Mississippi, like other states, should strive to simplify its state government by consolidating agencies with statutory/regulatory/functional/mission overlap. When accompanied by back side technology each citizens' interactions with government will become more efficient.

Case in point - in the state in which I now live, I go to one web portal to register my car and order a tag/title and apply for a driver's license (among other services). Even though different county/state agencies have legal responsibility for these items, there is one consolidated landing page where residents can go to get things done. As a new resident, all I needed to do was fill out an online questionnaire and the system told me which documents I needed to bring with me to the DMV for my initial visit, the same system prompts you to make an appointment and identifies the nearest location. No surly DMV employee telling me a different story when I arrived, just a helpful DL clerk who spent a few minutes taking my picture and inspecting my documents. My initial visit to the DMV took 12 minutes (I timed it).

The vehicle registration system is also federated with the vehicle inspections and insurance carriers' databases (which are managed by other state agencies) so that when you enter a VALID policy number you are allowed renew/receive your tag and registration, and the system queries another database to make sure your vehicle has been inspected in the last 90 days. When I renewed my tag this year, it took me 5 minutes, when I had to order a duplicate license, again - 5 minutes online.

Law Enforcement also has access to this database, and it is federated with the DL system so that when they run your DL it tells them immediately whether or not you have valid insurance and a valid registration/tag (no matter what is bolted to the vehicle).

I work in technology consulting and have done several cloud implementations for states around the country and know that Mississippi could benefit from this type of technology.

Anonymous said...

When will the next recession happen?

The next time there is a real hot crisis in the Middle east and oil prices soar?

Ooops!

Anonymous said...

@9:34 AM
If you adjust for inflation, then oil prices are lower today than in the 80s and 90s. For a non-renewable resource it sure is cheap.


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If you get tired come relax at the Fox News Tent. To gain admittance to the VIP section, bring either your Republican Party ID card or a Rebel Flag. Bringing both will entitle you to free drinks.Get your tickets now. Since this is an event for trolls, no ID is required, just bring the hate. Bring the family, Trollfest '07 is for EVERYONE!!!

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