Jackson Jambalaya

Back to where we’ve been for the past eight days except for yesterday. That’s potentially good news as growth in new cases has been linear rather than exponential. Hospitalizations are up some too, but that isn’t unexpected. Hospitalization rate has dropped from 33% to 30%. Maybe testing of people who aren’t showing severe symptoms is increasing and we are seeing more mild cases reflected in the cumulative total.

The IHME model is getting an overhaul today. That’s the one referenced in Trump’s updated. Will be interesting to see what they say given much more US specific data gathered since the outbreak started here.

Stay safe the next couple of weeks and follow recommendations to break the uncontrolled spread in the community and we can get back to normal as quick as possible. Those that refuse and continue to cause random outbreaks are just making the pain last longer for everyone.

Fearmonger BTE misses again.

Was out today and got to wave at the inmates working in the yards. Everybody seemed ok. Waiting for the changes in behavior in folks to set in.

Everyone knows folks around hear are more resistant to diease, most of them live in flith.

11:57 has a good point. This society began not letting kids playin the dirt and sickness and diseases seem to have taken over as well as increases in allergies. Never saw this when us dinosaurs roamed the earth in the day.

Fauci on PBS NewsHour:

“I don’t think anything would have prevented the spread of this [Chinese Wuhan] virus. Once it emerged into society, with its capability of efficient spread and morbidity and mortality, that was it. But what could have been different…is that, if we had known that this was highly transmissible early on, when it was just in China, I think other countries would have maybe been more quick on the trigger to try and inhibit travel from China to their country. … So, that delay in transparency, I think, likely had an impact on what I just said, the awareness that this could seed the rest of the world.”

10:47AM, absolutely. Hopefully, this is a turn in the trend. Several other states show a day or two of flattening, too. Pray to whatever God(s) one chooses to pray to or just think good thoughts that it really is a change in trend. And if it is, don't fuck it up by going out, wild, etc., too soon. Besides, most of y'all have a whole bunch of Charmin to use up, especially after all the beans and Spam. Just sayin'...

12:28 x 2. The Chinese government/Communist Party is not a good citizen of the world, and we need to stop pretending that it is.

Updated from past several days:

I went back and looked at the day to day percentages starting with the initial confirmed case on Mar 11. While our percentages are dropping, we are still not in line with the national average of about 9.4% Italy's numbers are still 5%, FYI.

300%
25%
100%
20%
67%
70%
47%
60%
75%
48%
20%
29%
18%
29%
19%
15%
14%
12%
11% (3-30-2020)
15% (3-31-2020)
10% (4-1-2020)
15% (4-2-2020)
7% (4-3-2020) (does not fit trend, very likely an anomaly)

Sort of splitting the difference here, but around 13% looks reasonable for now. If this continues to hold, I would expect to see the following numbers come out.

847
957 (937 actual) (3-30-2020) (2% error)
1,081 (1073 actual) (3-31-2020) (1% error)
1,221 (1177 actual) (4-1-2020) (4% error)
1,379 (1358 actual) (4-2-2020) (2% error)
1,558 (1455 actual) (4-3-2020) (7% error)
1,760
1,988
2,246
2,537

There is a bottom limit, a mathematical asymptote, that we will not go below. Where that is remains to be seen. Also to note, even if/when MS gets to 10% daily rate, that still means just under 1k new confirmed each day by end of April.

It's important to find new ways to not spread this thing. Stay home. Wipe down door handles. Avoid gatherings of any type. Etc.

Additional thoughts and notes:

Clearly not every single person w/ become infected, but the majority will, more than enough to swamp the healthcare system.

All of the numbers I have posted are in an effort to show that exponential growth doesn't look like a problem at first, then it gets bad very quickly. Google 'back of the chessboard problem' if you want some more examples of this.

I'm following the numbers. So far, they all say we are headed down a path to look like NY in a few weeks, to look like Italy/Spain. I'm saying 'trust the data and science' while others are simply saying 'trust me'.

So where does this leave us?

Time will tell. I urge us all to continue the prevention we are doing and to increase it where possible.

I'm still looking for reliable numbers concerning Mississippi's daily testing capacity if anyone can chime in on this.

CDC announces they can't use models as guideline as the hospitals in NYC have 31k patients as opposed to the predicted 121k patients predicted for today. It's not going to be 1/3 As widespread as predicted. I can tell you tate retard has closed elective cases 3 weeks too soon... all local physicians have done zero cases due to fear and the media. We need the stimulus money as I still have payroll with nurses and office manager as,well as rent on my clinic to pay. Malpractice ins office manager as well. I've had no income in 18 days. Isn't media wonderful. People that know zero about medicine advising the public. Meanwhile chloroquine should have been used for over a month now.

@theclintons, and your point is? How did those dinosaurs end up? And do you suppose the life expectancy was higher or lower back when kids were “playin the dirt”

Everyday we’re not working brings us one step closer to Communism. Regardless of who is President. The young cry baby generation wants everything free. In about 20 years, they’ll get their wish.

I live next door to a nurse pactitioner and an RN talked with them today for a while. One works at Baptist and the other at St D. They are both looking for extra work because both hospitals are dead. They are only getting their shift hours and no over time. Normally they're working and we hardly see them. Whats missing?

Betterthanever, Clintonscantkillusall.....yall have an answer? Seem to have one for everything else.

The Jackson Airport Authority is laying off employees. Does this mean this year's trip to Europe is canceled?

Note: Paris alternates yearly with Farnborough, England.

248, cry me a river - you couldn't do elective surgery for the past couple of weeks. And while we listen to your whine, go ahead and kick Reeves one more time for good measure.

You think you are the only person with overhead to pay - nurses, insurance, and of course your billing staff. Check out the businesses that had to close completely; they may not operate on the same daily billing rate that your elective surgery provides you but they still have a relative similar overhead facing them every day and can't even open their doors.

This can’t possibly be right. The model all of our emergency management overlords are using says we are at 962 coronavirus deaths today in Mississippi.

Why are you fucking protecting BTE?

Just pointing this out, but if modeling and predicting is so accurate, why aren't we bitching about what President (Hillary) Clinton isn't doing right?
I mean, the models and predictions showed that Sir Orange-a-Lago didn't stand a chance, didn't they?

That said, regardless of the models and predictions, it is _CLEAR_ that people should practice social distancing, hand-washing, wear masks when they must venture out, etc. Maybe the reduction in cases and deaths are a lot like the 2016 race - sometimes, people just refuse to do what they are predicted to do. Because, well, they are people.

@7:25 This, like any disaster, will create fortunes for some and bankrupt others. Some will die, many will live. Society will likely be changed forever. I've a very good friend with ~3M worth of unsold boat inventory... I fear for their financial future.

Gosh, no revenue in 18 days? How are you going to pay the alimony and beach house note on time?

Just love it when the 1% bleat in a panic that we should just hurry up this thing killing off the bottom 1% so they can keep 80% of the wealth in the US.

OMG 8:45, you're right .

The Paris Air Show has been cancelled !

@2:48
Yeah,
As you cray about not having elective cases to work on I still see dozens of surgeons yard men still mowing there grass in NE Jackson today so it can't be too bad for you.

I hope Pappy got a full night's rest last night.

7:25 pm
Our hospitals are not overwhelmed as yet.
No elective surgeries are being done so there is a reduction of patients.
If your neighbors work specific floors with certain specialists not relevant to the virus or in outpatient , they aren’t needed in MS now.
New York would be glad to have them and pay for them to come if they want extra work.
You have a eco i for. Please look up why that is most often not useful.

Pappy, your math skills are lacking and you don’t seem to understand that the death rate is lower in the early days when hospitals can respond.
Also , MS is not as densely populated. You might notice our counties with the highest populations and more visitors are hit worst.
You lack context for almost any comment you make. You see trees and never seek to know if you are in a forest or a grove.

@7:25, if true could raise questions of where they are sending the patients testing positive. The State may have designated specific receiving hospital(s) for the infected. Have no idea. Based on the numbers provided, I assume by MSDH, our State infection level is below 0.001%. Of those numbers we are never given numbers of admissions to ICU versus regular beds, who was sent home on meds and quarantine (have 2 coworkers in that category) and who is recovered. I am not, and have never claimed to be a professional in Infectious disease, but I refuse to be cowed by this supposed end of time problem. As BTE might, I say might, agree, numbers don't lie, if we are getting the right ones. I will continue to go to work and do my job, I cannot obsess on this or the implied sure death people attach to this.

@7:25 Kinda makes you wonder about the medical industry....as long as there is insurance
there will be medical procedures to be done whether needed or not

If the media and government hadn't made it public, would you even know it existed?

Taken from another news source, "An Illinois couple is dead in a murder-suicide this week after a 54-year-old man told relatives he feared the two of them had contracted the coronavirus, authorities said." This is what panic and fear-monger can do to folks. Poor folks, hope they are now at peace.

Is anyone in state government considering how to deal with the down turn when this pandemic fades? Mississippi's economy is based on 40% federal spending from taxes paid by New York, California, and other often BLUE states which will be desperately struggling to cover their deficits from weathering this plague. They will certainly fight to eliminate their funding of the "entitlement" states like Mississippi. So Mississippi will be facing its post plague financial crisis with a 40% cut off the top plus the depressed economy of the state.

Will the Governor rush to get his short cut to the mall paved?

And will the governor rush to pass more tax cuts for the wealthiest in Mississippi to foster more of that "P1ss on working people" economic support for his political supporters?

I feel sure that his personal priorities will continue to take top billing though.

Pappy Odaniel, not sure what model you’re referring to. The IHME model as of April 1st predicted 8 deaths per day in Mississippi, which is what MSDH just reported. Models change based into he measures we’re putting in place. That’s a good thing.

7:25 here..... both neighbors work in the ER of the hospitals mentioned in my earlier post.

Why would it not be true? They have no reason to lie to me and I’ve no desire to ad to the panic by posting some thing I have no reason not to believe.