Thursday, January 4, 2018

Horse Race!!!

Reliable sources told JJ that Michael Guest, yes, that Michael Guest, will run for Gregg Harper’s congressional seat. Who else will run or should Run?

70 comments:

Anonymous said...

Josh Harkins should run.

Anonymous said...

Now that is a joke!!

Anonymous said...

Jeff Weill. He has the political chops.

Anonymous said...

collection agency to congressman. hmmm....

Anonymous said...

Jeff Weill doesn’t live in the district. Michael has a bigger constituent base & would be a fine candidate. Harkins would do fine also.

Gregg Harper, what’s your biggest accomplishment, other than flacking for Senator Food Stamp?

Anonymous said...

4:15, obviously your intellect regarding our Senator applies to your overall political knowledge. Yes - Jeff Weill does live in the district. Just like it appears with the rest of your neanderthal thinking, your description of the Congressional District was pre-2012.

Thanks for your input though.

Anonymous said...

Judge Weill DOES live in the district.

Anonymous said...

Jeff Weill doesn’t live in the district.

Yes, he does. But his "political chops" don't extend outside of NEJackson.

Anonymous said...

Bryant
Bomgar
Mark Baker
Harkins

All make sense. Weill and Guest make zero sense. Except in this Donald Trump upside down world we are in, maybe they do.

Anonymous said...

Mike Guest
Josh Harkins
Lucien Smith
Russ Latino
Joe Nosef
Amy Tuck
Spencer Ritchie
Joel Bomgar
Greg Snowden
Becky Currie

Anonymous said...

I have known Michael personally for over 30 years now and think the world of him. He has been a great DA for Rankin and Madison counties, and while I would hate to lose him as DA, he would be a great Representative for us.

Anonymous said...

Cecil Brown

Anonymous said...

Jeff Weill lives in the district and has for decades. Most importantly, he knows the donors who matter in the district and he’s taken their money and proven he is a winner. He would be a great candidate if he is interested. Guest wouldn’t have the appeal with the voters and donors that Weill would.

Anonymous said...

The Republicans in Madison and Rankin counties are not going to rally around Jeff Weill. Sorry, not going to happen.

Anonymous said...

I've lived in MS-03 for 3 years (moved here from North Mississippi), and I've paid more attention to Mississippi politics in my life than most Mississippi voters. I have no idea who this Weill guy ya'll are talking about is. Why do people think he would be a good candidate? What has he done and where does he live?

Remember, this district runs from Starkville to Natchez. If there are a bunch of metro-area candidates in a GOP primary, seems like someone from another part of the district could make the run-off.

On the other hand, seems like Harkins would be a good candidate. Rankin county + MSU ties could be strong. Lynn Fitch has a bunch of name ID. Guest has had a lot of people vote for him in Madison and Rankin, but I wonder how committed those voters are to him. Bomgar could be a heckuva wild card with a crowded race in the current environment.

This should be fun to watch.

Anonymous said...

Weill is not a great judge, more of an actor. Need someone brighter and connected beyond Jacktown...

Anonymous said...

Cecil Brown vs Delbert Hosemann. Either would be good in DC.

Kingfish said...

Harkins has children in elementary school. Not going to uproot them to DC or be gone most of every week and live on the plane.

There have been a few rumors over the last few weeks about Thad stepping down, Tate getting appointed, Gregg getting appointed, and then a bunch of other politicians moving up the ladder. Much of that was rumors put out by Josh Sexton.

District is pretty wide as you wrote, Starkpatch to Natchez. Have to start with a base. Guest has one. However, not all of Madison County is in this district. 15 precincts in Hinds County are and Weill was a City Councilman from the area as well as a two term circuit judge. His donor list is nothing to sneeze at. As you stated, he has to expand on it but then all the candidates who run would have to do so.

State Senator Sally Doty is from Brookhaven and would be very capable. Charlie Ross probably would not run again as he is probably making too much money and has moved on from running for office. There is also Becky Currie and Cindy Hyde-Smith from that area as well. Don't see any of the statewide office holders getting interested in this one. I think Pickering was redistricted out of it into Pallazo's district. Someone wrote Amy Tuck. She's been out of sight and out of mind for quite some time. Snowden is a possibility.

Keep in mind that for the first couple of terms, a new Congressman is living on the airplane every weekend, its expensive to maintain two households, when you come home, you have to spend alot of time not just fund-raising, but going to community functions etc, in other words, you have no life. It gets better once you get to that stage where there are no opponents but for token ones but you still have to get there first.



However, there is one dark horse candidate no one has considered. Spooner.

Anonymous said...

5:10 - just because the Republicans in Rankin County think they are the only ones that count,even when including Madison, they don't control elections like many believe. Plenty of other Repub votes throughout the district for the right candidate.

Anonymous said...

Short campaign period. Lots of money to be raised. Can't transfer state campaign accounts to federal. Name ID is not terribly expensive outside of the Jackson media market, but 3/4 of the voters are in the Jackson TV range.

A statewide candidate, despite JJ's opinion to the contrary, is a very likely candidate. Doesn't have to give up current office to run (same for DA Michael Guest.) Weill would have to resign from his current judgeship to run; his recent announcement that he wasn't running for reelection is not the same as retiring from office today.

Couple of candidates that could self-fund a campaign if they should choose to do so: Bomgar, Hosemann, Landrum. But Landrum dropped a half mil last time, just to watch him dig a hole and bury himself with it, and market crash didn't do his pyramid scheme insurance base wealth portfolio any good. Bomgar would certainly make it interesting to see who survives his onslaught.

Harkins is not running; Fitch wants bad to go to DC, but campaign dollars might hold her back (Moore/Hood have no interest in funding this campaign for her.) Perfect race for Lucien Smith, but having just been named party chairman makes that scenario messy. Nosef wants it in the worst way, but don't look for that to happen.

Mike Tagert ran a good race in the 1st district last time; and actually lives in this district. Don't count out the Commissioner just because everyone here seems to be metro centered.

Anonymous said...

Whit Hughes?

Anonymous said...

What makes you (anybody) think a county prosecutor would make an effective representative on the national stage. I've read many press releases his office wrote for him but have never heard the man speak. I just don't see the connection between putting people in jail and effectively representing a constituent base in D.C.

Here are some more for these nutty lists:

Ben Allen
Rudy Warnock
John Bell Crosby
Kenneth Stokes
Larita (Heah She Come) Stokes
David Landrum
Karl Banks
Howard Ballou
Barbie Bassett
Dale Danks
John Arthur Eaves
Malcolm White
Lt. Robert Graham
Chokwe Lumumba
Hugh Freeze

Anonymous said...

Anybody but Bomgar, he's an imbecile ! Not liked in the state house, and would be worse in DC.

Anonymous said...

Say what you will but a Rankin county candidate sits in the catbird seat. If it is around 13-15% of a statewide vote tally is is even bigger in a congressional race. Now if Baker, Harkins or Guest run they would be the out of the gate favorite (in my opinion) but that does not mean it would last, but you would have to give them the early nod. I do not think that all three would enter and cause a disruption in the force. I look for one to come out of that bunch.

Fitch won't do it. She can't even make a bond payment on time. If she did, Tate may enter the race so he could be in a debate with her to grill her about her slack department since she won't show up to a budget hearing.

The question to me is what does McDaniel's girlfriend do? Talk about taking the campaign on the road! Both are well versed there, allegedly.

Anonymous said...

Why is no one mentioning the obvious choice - the man who has more campaigns under his belt in the past 7 years than anyone - Will Longwitz?

ALL Roads Lead to Rankin County said...

Say what you will but a Rankin county candidate sits in the catbird seat.

2016 MS-03 Republican Primary
Rankin County = 28.4% of total votes

2016 MS-03 General
Rankin County = 19.5% of total votes

Anonymous said...

Anyone know if Dorsey is ready to assume the sacrificial lamb position again?

Anonymous said...

ROFLMAO saw it mentioned on one of those national sites that KNOW so much about Mississippi that Charles Barbour could be a player in this race. LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL

Anonymous said...

Bomgar won’t run but he is well respected in the legislature and could easily buy your wife if he wanted her. Why the hate 8:20?

Anonymous said...

John Arledge

Anonymous said...

Sure Charles could be a player. He is the master in putting up yard signs overnight

Louis LeFleur said...

Geez, if he hadn't announced his own retirement I'd say Enoch Sanders should run, but...

Anonymous said...

8:20...How's the weather under that capitol dome? I'm not sure what respect in the state house has to do with electability or being an effective policy maker. I could build a winning campaign off of "ruffled feathers in the state house." As for imbicile, you could be one of the smartest folks under that dome you live under -and Joel's IQ would still be 40% higher than yours. If you want to say he's a bit intense or not exactly Mr. Smooth, then fine. But, the guy is pretty damned smart. One thing the interweb does is vastly expand the number of people who get called dumb.

Anonymous said...

Some have said in this thread that you can’t use state campaign dollars for federal campaign. That’s not exactly true. Before 12/31, you could convert the state campaign dollars to personal income; pay the relating tax; then plug them into a federal race. Sure, you take a haircut, but if you had decent $, it was worth it. After the new Campaign Finance Law took effect on 1/1/18, you can’t do that any more.
That brings up the question of just how much Harper is pushing Guest. Did Guest convert his state campaign dollars before New Year’s Day?

Math major said...

All roads - you need to check your math. I realize Rankin County thinks more of themselves than they deserve, but your vote percentage doesn't add up. Republican vote in 2016 general was 6.7% of total vote, and 14% of 3rd Cong District. (47000 of 1.2 million statewide, and 315000 3rd District)

Anonymous said...

we need Elvis, Billingsley, and Longwitz in the mix too.

Anonymous said...

We need Steve Holland in this position. As old as most of the House Reps are it would be good to have a casket salesman in the area. Plus he's short, pigeon toed and bald. Talk about a FIT! Only The Penguin could beat that combo.

Anonymous said...

Don’t forget Charlotte Reeves and Shawn O’Hara!

ALL Roads Lead to Rankin County said...

Hit SOS for data 8:22 AM. Work on your reading comprehension. Focus ONLY on MS-03. Race to replace Harper isn't a statewide election. Try harder.

Anonymous said...

816, true, but if you do that it can lead to 'self funding', depending on the amount you transfer, which removes federal limits for individual contributors for your opponents.

Anonymous said...

816, true, but if you do that it can lead to 'self funding', depending on the amount you transfer, which removes federal limits for individual contributors for your opponents.

Anonymous said...

BVAP in the 3rd not enough to get any Donkey over the Finish Line. For all intents and purposes the Primary will be the ballgame.

Anonymous said...

Watch which candidate the Sandersons fund. That will be the candidate soft on illegal immigration.

Anonymous said...

Send Longwitz or Billingsley to D.C. Hell send both of them

Anonymous said...

Why is every body missing the obvious choice for this position?

DRAFT DEAN KIRBY!

DRAFT DEAN KIRBY!

DRAFT DEAN KIRBY!

Anonymous said...

@ 9:08, I did not know that about self-funding. I wouldn’t think it would end up being more than $75K after paying taxes (and could be much lower). In a normal race, that’s not much. In a 5-way race (or whatever this # ends up being), that’s a pretty good head-start.

Anonymous said...

I hear dorky Carson is gonna run for it.

Anonymous said...

I hear the Micah Gober of Madison will run for the open seat.

Anonymous said...

Jeff Weill has lived and worked in Jackson a long time, but he was raised in southwest Mississippi (Tylertown, Walthall County) so he has connections and some name recognition beyond the metro.

Anonymous said...

Which of these guys afford to live on the $174k it pays and maintain a house in DC and a house in the Sip?

Anonymous said...

Thanks Kingfish these lists are fun. Reliable sources say the three candidates will end up being: (1) Cliff Finch (2) Emory Bellard and (3) Nosef. Okay yes, you do have to overlook the fact that the first two have been dead for years, and the GOP/Bryant buried the third out back a couple of months ago to distance themselves from the guy.

Suppose it is possible that many years from now, in a galaxy far away, in an election for municipal dog catcher, some candidate for the office may allow Nosef to hand out some flyers for him/her.

Anonymous said...

11:21, as of this time last year, MG had $38k cash on hand. Would expect that it is probably a couple of thousand less now. Whether he 'converted it' prior to NYD is not the issue - he could still do that, but is limited by the amount on hand on 12/31/17.

But $38k, less taxes, isn't enough to make much of a difference, but of course I would rather have a $30k head start than not. My guess is a successful primary campaign will probably cost $400 - $500k. Taking out anyone that might try to self fund, while this is not a substantial hill to climb, with 6 to 8 candidates in the field, and a short time to get established ahead of the others, its not going to be easy.

Anonymous said...

It's official

Micheal Guest

Anonymous said...

Nielsen Cochran’s youngest son has been weighing local and state races the last couple of years. He lives in Rankin County.

Anonymous said...

Patriots - saddle up. Bill Marcy is making his plans today, 3rd time will be the charm.

Anonymous said...

Don"t be surprised to see Mayor Gary Rhodes step in this race.

Anonymous said...

Will whoever is elected vote to impeach the president if he found guilty of treason as Bannon has suggested his son, son in law and campaign manager committed? Or obstruction of justice by suggesting to Sessions that he not recuse himself from the Russia Probe? As an independent voter these are the questions I need answered by our next congressman. I will ask all candidates to answer before I vote.

Anonymous said...

Republicans needed Michael Guest to run against Jim Hoodin 2015. He didn’t. Why should they support him now?

Anonymous said...

554 you sir are part of the problem. Get over it, he's your President too. Hope you are triggered beyond relief!!

Anonymous said...

Amen 6:43. I'm not enamored with some of the antics of POTUS, but the stupidity of 5:54 is not part of the problem - its most of the problem.

Guest might not want to be AG - look at the difference in the jobs and pay. But more importantly, look at the difference in timing - to run for AG, he either wins or goes back to practice of law. Has to give up DA job to run for AG. But, doesn't have to give up position to run for Congress. That, to me, would be a big difference particularly if I still had young kids at home.

Anonymous said...

Melanie Sojourner into the race; Chris to manage campaign and provide transportation to insure she maintains schedule and appearances

Anonymous said...

You people don’t think Michael Guest can self fund this campaign? Because he can. Get ready for Congressman Guest.

Anonymous said...

Most certainly he is the president and I hope he succeeds. However if he has committed a crime or is deemed unalble to serve, will the congressperson do the right thing and vote for his removal? I think that is a fair question for a candidate.

Anonymous said...

I just can’t get excited about Guest. Really hope someone else jumps in.

Anonymous said...

I agree that John Arledge would be great. If he had run when Harper was first elected, Arledge would have won and would still be in office and likely be the appointed successor to Thad Cochran. If Arledge runs now he will win
as he has decades of connections cultivated.

Arledge is smart, articulate, savvy and honest. I wish he would run but I don't think he will run. I think Arledge prefers the background.

Kingfish said...

Nope. SPOONER FOR CONGRESS!!!!!

You read it here first.

Anonymous said...

Weill could only be effective if he brings Kelli back to guide his thoughts. Without her brain, Weill truly is a moron.

Anonymous said...

all these wanna be political experts, dropping all these names , and taking about potential candidates as if they were some kind of gods. you make me wanna puke. no matter who you put up there this state will remain the equivalent of a third world country .

Anonymous said...

you make me wanna puke.

Impressive.

Anonymous said...

How about Mary Hawkins

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