Monday, October 2, 2017

Chism Poll: State flag support at 49%

Chism Strategies released this memo and poll about The Flag. 


MISSISSIPPI VOTERS GRADUAL IN SHIFT AWAY FROM CURRENT STATE FLAG

For the first time on record, support for the current Mississippi state flag polls less than a majority. But those who want to keep this controversial banner still outnumber advocates of a new state flag. This recent polling shows a 16% change in public opinion over the last sixteen years.

Chism Strategies’ survey of voters in mid-September found that 49% of respondents favored the current flag while 41% wanted to retire it, with 10% undecided. African Americans post strong support for a new flag but 62% of white voters opposed the change. A slight majority of whites under age 55 agree that we need a new state flag.

Gradual Shift in Public Opinion

Mississippians went to the polls in 2001 in a nonbinding referendum and rejected a new state flag with 64% of voters saying No.

Fast forward to the spring of 2014 when the Republican leadership in the state legislature discussed the possibility of legislation on the state flag. Chism Strategies polled voters then, asking if there was agreement on one of the key talking points about the flag at the time: the economic objections to the Confederate emblem--that the flag limit business investment from out of state and hurts tourism. A plurality of voters rejected this argument (40% No to 38% Yes).

We learned in follow up questions that most voters felt the 2001 referendum had settled the issue (55% to 27% who favored another vote.) In our final question on the subject, we saw some softening of opinion when we asked what voters thought about the legislature changing the state flag. Voters were split evenly 41/41 among those that said, “it was not a big deal” and those who said that any such legislative action should be reversed by a vote of the people.

The Political Realities

Mississippi’s junior US Senator, the Speaker of the State House of Representatives and other prominent state Republicans agree that we should retire the current state flag. This sentiment is echoed by the state’s organization of Southern Baptists, the largest religious denomination in Mississippi among white voters, along with the Methodists, Episcopalians and Catholic Church leadership here. The state’s business leaders concur that the Mississippi state flag is a drag in competition with other states for new industry. Still, most white voters are unmoved.

There is no groundswell for a new state flag at this time. Moreover, in this bitter political environment with an energized anti-establishment movement, promoting a referendum on a new state flag would be unwise. Opponents of a new state flag feel much more strongly than do new flag advocates. Moreover, this flag debate would be probably get high-jacked by the Far Right as a rallying cry in the culture wars and the final vote would not reflect the merits of a new flag.

About the Survey

The survey was conducted in mid-September. The sample size was 500 with a margin of error of 4.4%. We weighted results to reflect 2015 general election turnout by age, race, gender and partisanship.

 Kingfish note: Click here to view crosstabs. Sorry I could not post them here but they are in an Excel format.

47 comments:

Anonymous said...

Mississippi has a state flag. It symbolizes what Mississippi is all about more than any other state flag says what it's state is about. It is not a flag meant to unify or pacify anybody. It says to the rest of the country Mississippi would like to not only remember it's "sordid" past but we want to live in it now, if we could, and if you don't like it, the Hell with you!

Anonymous said...

Don't care how Brad slices it 31% of voters who turn out on election day are NOT 65 years old or older.

Anonymous said...


No groundswell? Then what the hell is your poll about Chism? Tell us Chism, is Bernie Sanders and his supporters part of the anti-establishment movement? Chism makes his money supporting establishment Democrats. Chism is a coward.

Anonymous said...

2:29 pm. You're mistaken. L2, the top nonpartisan voter turnout databases in USA has senior voter registration at 29.6% of total in MS. Ask MS SOS for the exact number. Voter turnout % increases with age. Chism may actually be low in his accounting for seniors in a statewide general election.

Anonymous said...

The "pollster", er, author indirectly proposes that the next flag referendum be offered up in a election that is likely to produce low turnout.

Ironic considering that low turnout is what today's flag opponents claim explains away the success of 2001.

Anonymous said...

Chism's trolling for paid work.

Anonymous said...

2:39 pm Why don't you Identify yourself? Anonymous insults are the very definition of cowardice.

Anonymous said...

This is the most obvious of the Chism fake polls. I think 60% are actually still gearing up to take on the North a second time.

Anonymous said...

My "informal" polling says that if the questions is to keep or do away with the flag the flag is gone. If the choice is between our current state flag an another flag it is hard to guess.

Albert Schweitzer said...

For 3:23 who asked someone for identification while posting anonymously and then decried that as the definition of cowardice?

Now, just think about that for a moment, please.

Anonymous said...

Voter registration does not equal voter turnout.

Anonymous said...

Polls only reflect the opinions of the sort of people who can be reached by pollsters, and who respond to pollsters.

It's getting harder and harder for even friends/family/associates to reach a lot of us, we've had to build such tall "walls", in order to combat telemarketers/spammers/mail-scammers, that more and more of us are UNREACHABLE.

The recent presidential election proved that the sort of people who respond to polls, are not representative of voters as a whole.

Anonymous said...

4:28 pm Consider your children or grandchildren's vote patterns and look at your own. Turnout increases with age. If voter reg at 30% for age 65+ in MS than its a safe bet turnout for that group will be even higher. Remember recent Rankin County school bond elections in off year?

Anonymous said...

The flag will come down folks, it's inevitable, and it should......but a real opportunity to demonstrate some authentic leadership could come in the form of a self-imposed university mandate to ban the term "Ole' Miss" for what it is....a racial slur - formerly used by slaves when referring to the lady/matriarch of the house. "Ole' Miss" and any reference to such term (including Hotty Toddy*), should once and for all be completely disallowed per revised UM bylaws. In time, this will actually take place to finally erase any reference to the university's prior Never! philosophy (i.e. meaning never give in to desegregation and integration).

*One commonly accepted origin of Hotty Toddy is that it was derived from the expression Hoity Toity. Given the definition of Hoity Toity as "having an air of superiority" - it fits the Ole Miss cheer perfectly.....racially or otherwise.

It's time for the University of Mississippi’s leadership to stand up, and represent something progressively new and prideful of character, honesty, and hard work - and not the clandestine graft, dishonest, political bullying, and criminal machinations that everyone knows go on throughout the entire state as though they were some secret society that used to exist in Mississippi not too long ago.

Well-moneyed, well-dressed, church-going Klan can come in many forms, and often concentrate themselves in places like Oxford. They used to run the entire state not too long ago, maybe they still do. Like many other states, we could then refer to our two largest schools as "Mississippi" and "Mississippi State" but alas, Oxford and all of their alumni in Jackson will again shout their battle cry - Never!

Change the Flag and Fill the Potholes said...

I appears many of those posting have stronger feelings about the pollster than the flag. I would vote to change it tomorrow just as I did in 2001. Back then I was a "newcomer" only having lived in the state for seven years. A life-long resident who also supported the change predicted the measure would fail. His response to my surprise was, "We're the Fuck-You-State..." Afterwards, I began noticing the Stars and Bars signs in support of the flag outside the city limits - in county after county. The vote wasn't even close and my friend's observation explains why the State continues to lag. It doesn't matter that the change would benefit everyone - MS still doesn't want to be told what to do.

Anonymous said...

Being that the state is 45% dependent on Federal funds, guess what: It will change, or Trump will simply see it implode.....which would make for good national politics. He just filled four Federal Fifth District Court of Appeals seats with non-Mississippians. Hmmmmmm....wonder why.

Anonymous said...

5:00...Well written but total BS. You are the very racist you claim others to be. Such a weak self identity must make daily life excruciating. Good luck

Anonymous said...

When will Trump tweet that this is a fake poll and when will he and McDaniel forge an alliance?

Anonymous said...

I would bet you marijuana polls higher than the state flag.

Anonymous said...

We should have a flag that everybody can fly proudly. I often wonder what it feels like for black Mississippians who want to show their MS pride, but can't because it would be kinda weird for them to be sporting our current flag on their cars or outside of their homes, knowing its history.

Anonymous said...

I am 68 years old and white, and was a Republican. I am so tired of the Tate Reeves Phil Bryant redneck types governing our state. The current flag is reprehensible. My God people, when will any of you "it's our by God heritage" backwoods humpers realize we are LAST for a reason? The reason will be evident in a few minutes when the rednecks start attacking my post.

Good God MOVE ON.

Anonymous said...

IF (big IF) there is to be another vote on a state flag, it all depends on the day of that election as regards whether it's a general election day for statewide offices, or some day singled out in February when nothing else is to be voted on or whether it's a day when there's a runoff from a primary but involving only democrats. And of course whether all the Head Start and Jatran buses are tuned up and running. The cherry on this whipped cream tart for the 'changers' would be if a black yoot has been caused to be deceased by a white cop within three weeks of the flag vote.

Anonymous said...

It really makes me sad I live in such a reprehensibly redneck State. I'm ashamed of this place.

Anonymous said...

Holy Samoli. The flag is coming down. One day. Soon. With or without Laurel and Pearl. And Learned.

Anonymous said...

McDaniel licking his chops to 1) pour the gas 2) light the flame,

Anonymous said...

Still waiting on someone to show proof that the flag stopped them from getting a job or an education or hindered thier progress in life....it hasn't, your argument is invalid

Anonymous said...

I left Mississippi 13 years ago and joined the Air Force. My service colleagues, black and white, simply shake their heads at our backwards state. Very embarrassing, but the people needing to hear this won't. they are too busy defending being a redneck.

Anonymous said...

Chism poll....Enough said!

This will not likely be posted....

But why is KF reporting results from a pollster that is known to "cook the books" for whoever pays him?

And that is always liberals that push liberal causes...

Anonymous said...

10:19: There is something you lack. It is called empathy. Empathy in this case for others who don't look like you and are offended by the history of the Confederate Battle Flag under which their ancestors lived in slavery. Having empathy is not a matter of being liberal. It is a matter of human decency.

Anonymous said...

8:50 pm, If you feel that way why don't you leave? The last time I crossed the state line there were no barricades or walls to keep anyone here. In other words, if you don't like it here, don't let the door hit you in the ass as you are leaving. We will not miss you.

Anonymous said...

If this is correct, put it up for another vote!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

9:55 The swastika, a picture of a donkey's ass, and a confederate battle flag do not keep any one from getting a job or an education as you say, but only a hateful and totally arrogant people would put those images on their public state flag. It certainly tells the rest of the modern world to go to hell as Mississippi did when it's legislature adopted this flag. Some people simply think it's past time to at least pretend to be intelligent. Let's just pretend pleeeese.

Plain ol' Catfish said...

You know whats so ironic?

When they open up the Mississippi history and civil rights museum - you will see displays of people marching and protesting, then you will see photo's of racist whites waving the Confederate flag in opposition to integration

Then soon as you walk outside that museum you'll see the same Mississippi flag with the Confederate emblem embedded in the state flag.

How in the f*ck can you move pass that crap that happened in the past, when the leadership in this state is so got'damn tone deaf!?

Arkansas, Louisiana, Alabama residents are grateful for Mississippi - because if it wasn't for it, they would be the joke of America.

Anonymous said...

KF How many times have any states held popular votes to determine their state flags? The state flag is kind of a commercial logo and symbol that can either be passive and obscure or aggressive and distinctive. Back in the days following the civil war and in response to "federal intrusion" the Mississippi LEGISLATURE decided to make an aggressive statement of defiance to the change that was happening in other parts of the country. They placed the battle flag of the confederacy on the state flag to be displayed in all official capacities to demonstrate Mississippi's attitude towards it's own citizens and the rest of the world. Clear and unambiguous. It was the popular thing to do, (blacks didn't count). Now the governor and the legislature have flipped the script so they can again do the popular thing (blacks still don't count). This time a vote. Same result. Same Mississippi.

Anonymous said...

How many of you were born before Mississippi had this flag? How many has had their education stopped by the flag? How many have lost a job because of the flag? How many have moved into the state during the time our flag was waving?
Anyone who answered yes may have some excuse for wanting to change the flag except those who moved into our state. All the rest do not have any gripe.
Those who still gripe should look at a map. See all of those roads crossing the state line? You are free to move to any state that has a flag you like. Why not hit the bricks?

Anonymous said...

9:36 You have done a great job of summarizing the sentiment and rationale which pervades the state of Mississippi and is symbolized by it's state flag.

Hit the bricks!

Anonymous said...

7:56 am: Because I was born here over 65 years ago and have my 6th generation Mississippi family and my business here. Why don't you leave first so what is left will be that much more tolerant, less embarrassing, less redneck, more connected to the Nation, and a better society to be proud of?

Anonymous said...

The regressive attitude from @9:36 is why Mississippi will always be last.

Anonymous said...

11:43, no, what keeps Mississippi last is people who teach their kids they should not get an education because they will be called Uncle Toms.
Schools where the administration steals the money needed by the kids to line their pockets and the pockets of their friends keep Mississippi in last place.
Crooked judges who release criminals out to prey on the few honest people in Mississippi keep us in last place.
Government leaders who are crooks keeps us in last place.
Plain damn uneducated people who complain about everything keeps us in last place.

A flag does not help or hurt anyone. Their own ignorance takes care of that job.

Anonymous said...

9:36 Still thinks they are in the majority. Thanks for illustrating why so many people favor replacing the flag.

Anonymous said...

Dont like the flag dont cash them state checks....that will show your true determination

Anonymous said...

The comments on JJ and other sites make me think McDaniel may win this time.

Anonymous said...

Er-Ah...Dear Potholes: Here is part of your post: "Afterwards, I began noticing the Stars and Bars signs in support of the flag outside the city limits - in county after county."

You obviously would not recognize the Confederate Stars and Bars if it slapped you upside your liberal head. That flag is not part of the State flag. Before you opine on flags, please, at minimum, educate yourself.

Anonymous said...

Amazing how public schools don't want to fly it either. I was at a Middle School football game last night and the rag was no where to be found.

Anonymous said...

I am a conservative Republican that wants a new flag. I have black friends who are personally insulted by the flag. The flag is hurting Mississippi. The legislature should change it. They won't because they have no courage or leadership. They hide behind a statewide vote.

Anonymous said...

I don't live in Mississippi, anymore. But when we DID live there, I never noticed the flag. When we'd buy a new apartment building (and before we'd get rid of the white trash tenants who were already there), I'd sometimes encounter what I presumed to be the Rebel Flag on someone's balcony. I'd always make them take it down (along with things like beer can pyramids in windows). Sometimes, I'd be told, "Thaaaaayit's nawt thuh Rebel Flaaaaaayig!"

And sure enough, it would be the state flag. But I'd always forget, 'cause I really didn't give a flyin' ugly word. I just thought that the colors were ugly, and that it looked cheap and tacky.

Who looks at flags, anyway?

The upside of the current Mississippi flag, is that it is a powerful YANKEE REPELLENT. Those people are already ruining North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia. The longer Mississippi can keep them out, the better, IMHO.

But if you DO replace the flag, please go with something that LOOKS GOOD, rather than something with the right SYMBOLISM. How about white on top, and Azure blue on the bottom, united by an interlocking Greek Key design? If it has to symbolize something, it can symbolize the Greek Democracies upon which our own republic is modeled.

But the MAIN thing, would be that the flag would be beautiful and classy. Mississippi needs more beauty and class.

Anonymous said...

2:03 Do you know how hard it is to put lipstick on a pig?

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