Wednesday, March 19, 2014

Poll results: Octavian & Yarber in the lead.

A Republic Group poll states Chokwe A. Lumumba, Jr. and Tony Yarber lead the mayor's race while Margaret Barrett-Simon placed third. The most important number is 33%.  That is the percentage of responses that were stated as "undecided".  The 2013 race had an undecided percentage of 25% in most campaign polls one week before the election.  Hence most broke for Mayor Lumumba on election day.  The poll results are posted below. 

Poll Report

Q1 Likely Voter
1 – Will absolutely be voting                                                                                    395 (75.2%)
2- Will most likely be voting                                                                                    51 (9.7%)
3- Unsure                                                                                                                  48 (9.1%)
4 – Most likely will not vote                                                                                     13 (2.4%)
5 – Absolutely will not vote                                                                                      18 (3.4%)
6 – Error Record                                                                                                        14

Total Responses = 525 (MOA = 2.5%)

Q2 Preferred Candidate
1 – Harvey Johnson                                                                                                  50 (9.3%)
2 – Chokwe Antar Lumumba Jr.                                                                               93 (17.25%)
3- Melvin Priester Jr                                                                                                 44 (8.2%)
4 – Tony Yarber                                                                                                        91 (16.9%)
5 – Margaret Barrett Simmon                                                                                   64 (11.8%)
6 – Regina Quinn                                                                                                      3 (0.05%)
7 – John Hohrn                                                                                                         12 (2.2%)
8 – Undecided                                                                                                          182 (33.7%)

Kingfish note:  Margaret's results are somewhat surprising.  If she is running to help Bennie or Harvey as some speculate, it is real interesting in that she is beating both candidates.   Kind of defeats the purpose if your spoiler turns into a boomerang. If true, I wonder if the plotter has one of those "Wile. E. Coyote, Certified Super Genius" cards.   Several commentors on this website have wondered why exactly she is running for Mayor.  If she conducted a poll and saw these numbers, why shouldn't she run? That is a pretty good starting point- if its accurate.   Melvin Priester, Jr. has some work to do.  Is he a contendah or is he the Duane Bobick of this race?  Tied with the three-time champ and behind three others.  Nearly a ten point difference.  Harvey.  A known quantity.  Know what that means, Harvey? Time to break the glass. Quinn should probably drop out if these results hold true in other polls. 

This race is actually fun to watch.  No months and months of fund-raising and manuevering.  Its _____ to the wall campaigning . All the future plans made by several of these candidates were erased by Death.  Funny thing about Death. It doesn't cooperate or ask what your plans are.  See District 2 in Hinds County. The candidates had to take what they had and run to the field of battle.  Fund-raising, creating a message, assembling a staff, working social media, taping commercials, lining up support- all the tasks that go into winning an election, has to be done on the fly within four weeks.  Sort of gives you an idea who can act under pressure.  Stay tuned.


Anonymous said...

What were the number of people polled? Was it a push poll? Were all the candidates training, experience and qualifications discussed? What was the margin of error? Over what period of time was the poll conducted? Were all the negatives of each candidate discussed and then the question asked are you still likely to voe for this person? Was it just a name recognition poll? Kingfish and your followers, I expect you all to get to the bottom of this.

Anonymous said...

Poor, don't you know who I am-look at me I'm important, John Hohrn. Jackson voters don't like him, no one in the state senate likes him. And the cops just don't care who he is.

Anonymous said...

Can you be a junior of someone who chose a made up name? Carrying on the proud family legacy of picking ridiculous names out of an African name hat?

Anonymous said...

Doubt crosstabs even exist for this amateur poll.

Anonymous said...

7:59, excellent questions. The Republic Group is a subsidiary of the Hayes Dent Public Strategies lobbying firm.

Anonymous said...

Only in the land of the blind, where the one-eyed guy is King, would the media trumpet a poll where the respondents were 90% minority-Democrat voters, and the poll was done by a Republican polling concern.

The only thing to know at all about this special election in Jackson for Mayor is that Antar will be in the runoff, and then he will win the runoff, because that is how they will vote, to keep the dream alive!

Now go back to sending checks to your brat college kids, they are broke after spring break ya know.

Anonymous said...

If it is Hayes Dent then you know Tony Geiger is pulling bullshit somewhere nearby.

Anonymous said...

This joint is always good for a laugh. All these experts and the first post didn't know that a regular poster here conducted the poll (ain't that right, Steve....). That strikes me as typical of the 'git out of jafrica lak i did beforun its too late' crowd.

Anonymous said...

Had a kid going door to door come by my house off Ridgewood yesterday evening with Yarber flyer. Haven't seen many of his signs in NEJ, but first campaigner we've had. Wonder if young Lumumba will send his folks by? "Together one city" is real tough when your campaign doesn't even step foot in 1/4th of the neighborhoods

Anonymous said...

Speaking of polls, I made the mistake of answering an unknown call on my cell and it was a pollster. I elected to participate, but regretted it. Twenty minutes later, after I had been lectured about how old Thad Cochran is and how great McDaniel is, we wrapped it up. It was painful, and the tone was a reminder of how unlikable the tea party folks really are. Its a shame to have so many good ideas, and be so hard to like.

Anonymous said...

7:59, 9:06; This was a telephone poll conducted on March 17, 2014. It was not a push poll and none of the candidates qualifications were listed or mentioned. It was a generic ballot test. No negatives or positives. All of the other information you asked for is listed in the post. We didn't conduct this poll for a certain candidate or candidate's committee. Thanks for your interest in the poll and we hope this answers all your questions.

The Republic Group

Anonymous said...

I'm more up on the Romans than on the current contenders - a guide along the lines of "Chokwe Jr. = Octavian" could be amusing. If Barrett-Simon is Servilia, does that make Quinn Atia?

Anonymous said...

Dear 7:59AM: To address two of your questions.

Total Responses = 525 (MOA = 2.5%)

Instead of looking at this kernel of information, you could also have added up the numbers to have arrived at this.

I would hope that KF doesn't leap up immediately because of your expectations of him or his readers.

Anonymous said...

10:43, WORD!! I got one two and after I told him I was on a no call list I took the poll as well. Doubt my responses were even counted.

Danks' Tanning Salon said...

This one, as most polls, is meaningless. Totally meaningless.

Did the poll axe:

Do you vote?

Which pays more; A mayor's job, or a president's or a king's?

Do you know where City Hall is?

Will the winner be the mayor of the Metro area, the county or the city or the downtown area?

If Frank Melton decides to run, will you support him again?

And Kingfish's suggestion that at the last moment, the undecided decided to jump on the Chokwe wagon, is ridiculous. Ignorant people will always say they haven't decided yet because they've been taught to never discuss their vote except at church or a picnic and then only with the person shaking hands and serving catfish.

As to the 'keep the dream alive' crowd comment, that's probably right on. Never mind that none of them can tell you 'what dream' or any elements of any prior dream or who had it (some will say MLK) or why it should be kept alive or what they will realize from any dream, even if one existed.

Anonymous said...

Since you are big on arthimetic 10:52 AM why don't you take a moment to add the number of responses for Q2.

Don't waste time on this shit poll. Chism level crap but this time from Dent.

Anonymous said...

As noted, this poll isn't worth the paper it is written on - and yes, I recognize that I am reading this on a computer screen rather than paper. Crosstabs? Methodology? Sample demographics? Conducted by the 'newly formed' Republic Group, another new division of Hayes Dent Strategies - no history of polling but since it was done by Yarber's managers,it is posted here as having some kind of value.

Anonymous said...

The only poll that matters is the one by the voters on April 8th.

If poll results are going to be published, there should be a true unbiased poll commissioned collecively by TV stations, JJumbalaya, Clarion Ledger, and JFP.

This other crap called polling is designed to condition the market to exclude viable candidates and suppress voter turnout and hamper fund-raising efforts of contenders.

Anonymous said...

Looks like Yarber ponied up a little more change than Hohrn to get his adv on top of JJ. I wonder if JJ held an auction?

Kingfish said...

Nope. They get rotated.

Anonymous said...

12:06 and 12:58, I know you're making your best attempt at damage control for your candidate and that's ok, even expected. But clue in, this stuff is pretty standard nowdays and easy to do. From your comments, I doubt for you, but easy nonetheless. Trolls on this site who have the nads to say anything always amuse me.

Anonymous said...

Danks' Tanning Salon just made the best comment above at 11:43 that I have ever read on this site. There is nothing left to say about this thing until April 4th. Go back to living in the land of the blind, and please pay your taxes to the one-eyed King.

Anonymous said...

Octavian??? Love it!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

We have a short election cycle and a special election that is in fact a poll. To the ambitious--its free advertising. A political dry run. It might be the last run for Margaret and she said she would be blessed regardless of whether Jackson is. She is a fairly good public ward representative, but Jackson needs the exceptional leader. She is old school, just more maternalism if you like. With Dr. Simon at her side its paternalism.

Wondermous said...

On a (possibly) related note, what the hell is that on top of Kenny Wayne Jones' head?

RaouL kNave said...

LMAO as the dupes @ the JFP report on this poll as if it is remotely legit.

Anonymous said...

Free the land!!!

Anonymous said...

The forthcoming infrastructure spending will be an economic boost in a period of state and general government austerity. Lumumba is correct to voice the need to employ young and energetic Jacksonians in the construction. The 'free the land' motto relates to local profit. The land use plan of the city has been in place forever as commercial and residential districts have changed. Perhaps the land use plan should be re-done concurrent with infrastructure plans. Some former neighborhoods are hollow with too many vacant (state tax) lots to be sustained by traditional city services.

Anonymous said...

The ghetto vote is never polled and there are no pollwatchers stationed in the hood preciencts. The last mayoral runoff was highjacked. The media anointed a mayor who lied about his health and now jr. Who was in on the lie has gotten no press scrutiny and won't. The press failed to report on allthe thugs named as department heads or the purge against city employees who stayed nuetral or supported lee. Jackson is doomed.

Anonymous said...

Leadership is earned.
Who among these candidates has earned the privilege to be the Mayor of Jackson?
Which one has demonstrated the maturity and ability to make honest and aboveboard decisions that will help Jackson move forward in a positive way for all citizens?
Which candidate has the ability to make the hard decisions for the good of Jacksonians and not for the benefit of power seekers?

Anonymous said...

Have no fear. Momma Donna and her "Editorial Board" will soon tell all of us who to vote for.

Anonymous said...

I was one of those polled. I was surprised it was so well constructed.
I'm one of the undecided , but Lumumba isn't in my top three.
I suspect this will come down to who can get their supporters to the polls.
What's interesting to me is that if Harvey and Margaret weren't in it, Lumumba wouldn't have a chance.

Anonymous said...

I was surprised it was so well constructed.

Then you wouldn't know a statisically valid poll if it was staring you in the face.

I suspect this will come down to who can get their supporters to the polls.

No shit? Really? Wow, that is a powerful observation.

What's interesting to me is that if Harvey and Margaret weren't in it, Lumumba wouldn't have a chance.

Sure. Whatever you say.

Anonymous said...

Hey 7:05, how does it feel to secretly be a prick? Now,go back to your job and make sure those two kids on the candy aisle don't steal those Snickers bars.

Curious said...

Can someone enlighten me? What is Antar's record of service in the City of Jackson? What has he done to make the community better place? Does he mentor young folk? Does he help the elderly? How about those less fortunate? I need info

Second, please share what his leadership experience since college/ law school has been?

By age 30 his dad was a Already a participant in the civil rights revolution and fighting for the rights of the less fortunate? His son is not him and we see a the time children of businessmen, community leaders, etc.
who simply don't measure up. Do we have more here or is the City of Jackson going to fall peril because people think Antar can do what his dad might have done? I need info

Anonymous said...

March 19, 2014 at 11:08 PM:

Leadership is earned.
Who among these candidates has earned the privilege to be the Mayor of Jackson?
Which one has demonstrated the maturity and ability to make honest and aboveboard decisions that will help Jackson move forward in a positive way for all citizens?
Which candidate has the ability to make the hard decisions for the good of Jacksonians and not for the benefit of power seekers?


Anonymous said...

1:15. Will she show up more than once a month?

Anonymous said...

7:05 am ROFL

I'll bet I've done far more marketing research,surveys and polls than you have.

Yes, I stated what should be the obvious to most, but given the comments, the obvious is not obvious to some.

By the way, did you notice the LOW turnout in predominantly white precincts? Given your analytical skills, I'll explain that's among registered voters.

For fun, look at those numbers compared to the total turnout in predominantly black precincts.

I hope the extrapolations aren't too difficult for you.

Anonymous said...

FYI 12:01, not sure what election you are referring to but top turnout percentage precincts in Lee vs Lumumba run-off were white precincts.

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