Wednesday, October 23, 2024

Sid Salter: Federal Elections to Yield No Surprises

Mississippians will go to the polls on Tuesday, Nov. 5 to cast their ballots in the nation’s federal presidential and congressional elections. However, given the state’s history in presidential balloting and reliance on the seniority system for clout in Congress, few surprises are anticipated.

While the national presidential race is projected to be one of the closest races in the nation’s history between Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and former GOP President Donald Trump, Mississippi’s reliable “red state” status has removed most of the intrigue from how voters will lean here.

Mississippi has given Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump double-digit wins in both presidential general elections (2016 and 2020) in which he’s faced Magnolia State voters and there’s no plausible reason to expect a different outcome in 2024.

Since 1996, Mississippi has voted Republican in presidential politics by an average of 56.17% and Democratic by an average 41.78% – with the rest of the vote scattered among third-party or independent candidates. That’s seven election cycles covering 28 years.

From 1972 to the present, the only Democrat to carry Mississippi in a presidential general election was fellow Southerner Jimmy Carter in 1976. That’s 58 years excluding the current election cycle.

Trump in 2020 carried Mississippi with 57.60% of the vote to Democrat Joe Biden’s 41.06%. State voter turnout in that race was 1.313 million.

In 2016, Trump carried the state with 57.86% of the vote to 40.06% for Clinton. State voter turnout in 2016 was 1.211 million. Remember that number. In 2008, 1.7 million Mississippians voted. In 2012, some 1.2 million Mississippians voted.

In 2012, GOP nominee Mitt Romney won about 710,746 votes. In 2008, the GOP’s John McCain won 725,000. President Barack Obama’s total fell to 562,949, down 30,000 votes from 2008 to 2012.

Obama won 43.7% of the 2012 vote in Mississippi – the second-best performance of any Democrat in the last nine election cycles. The only instance better was the 44.1% of Mississippi ballots that Bill Clinton garnered in his 1996 re-election win.

In the U.S. House of Representatives races, all four Mississippi incumbents – 1st District U.S. Rep. Trent Kelly, R-Tupelo, 2nd District U.S. Rep. Bennie Thompson, D-Bolton, 3rd District U.S. Rep. Michael Guest. R-Brandon, and 4th District U.S. Rep. Mike Ezell, R-Pascagoula – are all cruising to re-election.

On the Senate side, Mississippi’s senior U.S. Sen. Roger Wicker, R-Tupelo, is heavily favored in his re-election bid to defeat Democratic challenger Ty Pinkins. The most impactful aspect of the Wicker race is his current status as the ranking Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee.

Should the GOP take control of the Senate – as is projected by most national political observers with the GOP poised to pick up seats in West Virginia and Montana and more – Wicker will assume the chair of the powerful national defense committee. Wicker, a recognized expert on air, land and sea power in the U.S. military, has been a longtime advocate for rebuilding and modernizing the military as occurred under the Reagan administration.

While the state’s junior senator is not standing for re-election this year, U.S. Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, R-Brookhaven, has been the topic of growing speculation that should Trump return to the White House, she would likely be on the shortlist for consideration as Trump’s secretary of agriculture.

A former Mississippi Commissioner of Agriculture and Commerce, Hyde-Smith remains active as a cattle farmer and partner in a stockyard operation. Last year, she was one of six named to Trump’s Agriculture Advisory Committee. Such a development would launch quite a momentous fall of political dominoes in Mississippi. But for now, Wicker’s likely Armed Services ascendancy and Hyde-Smith's Trump Cabinet consideration are the most intriguing aspects of the 2024 elections in Mississippi.

Sid Salter is a syndicated columnist. Contact him at sidsalter@sidsalter.com.

26 comments:

Anonymous said...

Y'all loving voting for the worst of the worst and now y'all can vote for Nazi loving scum. And go ahead and call this fake news. Anything y'all dont like is "fake news".

Anonymous said...

Hyde-Smith in the cabinet is frightening. She has done nothing of importance in the Senate and comes across dumb as a post. On the other hand, Wicker is very effective.

Anonymous said...

@7:45 This is how I like to wake up. It's not even 8 AM and DJT has you losing your mind. I guess the polls, are correct.....we're winning.

Anonymous said...

I will not be voting at all. There is no one running that is fit for the job of President.

Kingfish said...

I'm voting the Meadow Party.

Anonymous said...

Well, enough of all the democracy bs, and how lucky Mississippi is to have theses fine servants of the people.

Just remember, we the people still do not have the rights guaranteed by the MS Constitution to modify said constitution by popular vote. How long will those entrusted to protect our liberties keep us from having this right?

You’d think it’d be as simple as changing from “five” to “four” congressional disctricts. What’s so hard? These leaders of ours don’t want us exercising that right, that’s what’s so hard!!

Anonymous said...

More useless littoral ships built in Pascagoula. That was the deal we made to get Australia to by a nuclear submarine, we buy their unwanted and unneeded ship design, and have their shipbuilding company Austral make them for us. Great deal guys, we’re retiring them almost as fast as thiey are built.

Anonymous said...

That's telling them. They shouldn't be voting for those Hamas loving, Jew hating democrats.

Anonymous said...

Help me. I want to vote for somebody, not against the other candidate (again).

Anonymous said...

@8:23am - Doesn’t matter if you vote or not in Mississippi, as far as president is concerned. Trump will take Mississippi because we’re the “poorly educated” and he loves us. Thank the electoral college for that. Only a few states actually matter.

Anonymous said...

"From 1972 to the present, the only Democrat to carry Mississippi in a presidential general election was fellow Southerner Jimmy Carter in 1976. That’s 58 years excluding the current election cycle."

No, it isn't. No matter what Sidney meant.

Anonymous said...

That figures. Be sure to wear your powder-blue loafers to the polls.

Anonymous said...

I love it when the left thinks that if you live in Mississippi & vote Republican, you are poorly educated, redneck, etc. They still don't get it do they. Only the elites and educated people are smart enough to vote blue, while they tell everyone else they are dumb for voting red.

And this whole abolish the electoral college movement, coupled with the left's mass influx ILLEGAL immigrants, tells you their motive.

Anonymous said...

Democrats are becoming unhinged as the Harris campaign implodes and she sinks in the polls. The enthusiasm is gone and the Obamas, Clintons and James Carville are in panic mode. I love it! Harris was plan B after plan A was ousted, too late for plan C.

Anonymous said...

Two generations from now, it won't be like this in MS.
Republicans will be overwhelmed by democrat demographics.

Anonymous said...

@the first 10:48am comment - The only thing that will imploding is your tiny brain when orange felon loses in two weeks and goes to prison for the myriad of crimes he’s committed.

@the second 10:48am comment - Yeah, I’d say that too if my shitty party lost the popular vote for president all but once in the last 30 years.

Anonymous said...

@10:48 You're absolutely right. Trump is killing it. Pure domination. It's right in front of everyone's eyes. Go VOTE!
@11:05 I'm sorry you don't understand how elections work. Going to a failing public school has obviously impacted how you view the world. I don't feel sorry for you though. You've accepted lies as truth your whole life I'd imagine.

Anonymous said...

My goodness Fish. This riled 'em up.

Anonymous said...

People and their popular vote BS. Do you even know why we have the EC? Maybe look into that and get back to us......

Anonymous said...

I miss the good ol' days of voting for a great candidate, and not just the one that seems slightly less shitty.
Perhaps they were garbage too, and the lack of 24/7 news media just kept me from knowing. If so, ignorance really was bliss.

Anonymous said...

@3:06pm - Let’s go with slavery for $1,000 Alex

Anonymous said...

KF have you ever seen in your life one man that can turn so many people into rabid mad dogs? Who ever wins this election there's gonna be riots, rabble rousing & pandamonium in the streets...I love it! What a show!

Anonymous said...

Flunked civics, uh? What will you do if Trump wins it in a landslide?

Anonymous said...

We have no choice this year - either a senile and over weight old man or an ill equipped VP.

Anonymous said...

8:14 said, "Hyde-Smith in the cabinet is frightening. She has done nothing of importance in the Senate and comes across dumb as a post. On the other hand, Wicker is very effective."

Please tell us this post is satire. Hyde-Smith is no Tom Cotton, but she is miles ahead of "Empty suit Wicker."

Anonymous said...

"From 1972 to the present, the only Democrat to carry Mississippi in a presidential general election was fellow Southerner Jimmy Carter in 1976. That’s 58 years excluding the current election cycle."

Either I can't follow his verbose word twistery or I can't do math, but in either case, his math ain't correct.

If you 'exclude the current election cycle', which began in 2021, it's been 45 years since Carter was elected.

Using today's date, it's been 48 years since Carter was elected.

If you add 58 years to Carter in 76, today would be 2034.

I'm lost as a goose, but I know who to vote for and I ain't 'at the wrong rally'!


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In the spirit of helping those who are less fortunate, Trollfest '09 adopts a cause for which a portion of the proceeds and donations will be donated: Keeping Frank Melton in his home. The “Keep Frank Melton From Being Homeless” booth will sell chances for five dollars to pin the tail on the jackass. John Reeves has graciously volunteered to be the jackass for this honorable excursion into saving Frank's ass. What's an ass between two friends after all? If Mr. Reeves is unable to um, perform, Speaker Billy McCoy has also volunteered as when the word “jackass” was mentioned he immediately ran as fast as he could to sign up.


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If you get tired come relax at the Fox News Tent. To gain admittance to the VIP section, bring either your Republican Party ID card or a Rebel Flag. Bringing both will entitle you to free drinks.Get your tickets now. Since this is an event for trolls, no ID is required, just bring the hate. Bring the family, Trollfest '07 is for EVERYONE!!!

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