Jackson Jambalaya

and...with all the lines for hoarding groceries..i expect it to double again by next week..

and this christmas--give your kids the rolls of toilet paper you hoarded. or the frozen food.. or the sodium laden soups...

Updated from past several days:

I went back and looked at the day to day percentages starting with the initial confirmed case on Mar 11. It looks like we are seeing MS's numbers _begin_ to line up with USA overall (9.7%) daily rate.

300%
25%
100%
20%
67%
70%
47%
60%
75%
48%
20%
29%
18%
29%
19%
15%
14%
12%
11% (3-30-2020)
15% (3-31-2020)
10% (4-1-2020)
15% (4-2-2020)

Sort of splitting the difference here, but around 13% looks reasonable for now. If this continues to hold, I would expect to see the following over the next 5 days.

847
957 (937 actual)
1,081 (1073 actual)
1,221 (1177 actual)
1,379 (1358 actual)

There is a bottom limit, a mathematical asymptote, that we will not go below. Where that is remains to be seen. Also to note, even if/when MS gets to 10% daily rate, that still means just under 1k new confirmed each day by end of April.

Any model has trouble hitting a moving target. At least MS daily numbers are dropping. It's important to find new ways to not spread this thing. Stay home. Wipe down door handles. Etc.

4-3-2020 update:

Clearly not every single person w/ become infected, but the majority will. All of the numbers I have posted are in an effort to show that exponential growth doesn't look like a problem at first, then it gets bad very quickly. Google 'back of the chessboard problem' if you want some more examples of this.

I'm following the numbers. So far, they all say we are headed down a path to look like NY in a few weeks, to look like Italy/Spain. I'm saying 'trust the data and science' while others are simply saying 'trust me'.

So where does this leave us?

If we continue tracking at 13% daily:

1,503
1,638
1,785
1,945
2,120

Time will tell. I urge us all to continue the prevention we are doing and to increase it where possible.

Kingfish:
My data on the maximum # of tests we can do daily is out of date. What capacities are you aware of?

Interesting article about where the toilet paper has gone.

https://marker.medium.com/what-everyones-getting-wrong-about-the-toilet-paper-shortage-c812e1358fe0

Big jump in today's numbers. Pretty good increase in the number hospitalized too. Big increases in March 20 and 23 numbers for symptom onset (a Friday and the following Monday). This reflects what was happening almost two weeks ago. Numbers right now are inevitably much higher.

At least the death rate is still relatively low, although with hospitalizations up the deaths will go up as well.

Was this a one-time aberration due to clearing out the testing backlog or is it a sign of things to come? One day does not make a trend. We'll see what tomorrow's numbers say.

Correction, used the wrong number in the spreadsheet.

Prediction for next 5 days:

1,558
1,760
1,988
2,246
2,537

.00045% of our Mississippi population is infected. Shut is all down. That makes sense.

i really don’t want to hear anything about giving to “those in need” at christmas. it’s obvious by the lines and sales at grocery stores that the only truly in need are homeless. a lot of them served our country and we need to stand by them and support them, not the hoarders this year.

"The Mississippi State Department of Health reported 181 new cases of Coronavirus this morning. The total number of cases is 1,358. The virus has caused 29 deaths. 262 patients are hospitalized." Subtracting the dead that leaves 1329. Subtract the hospitalized leaves 1067. Of those we have no idea if they are all at home quarantined or recovered.

The world wide infection rate is over 1 million or about 0.014% of the 7 Billion folks out there. Deaths worldwide are 500,000 with Infected US population at over 230,000, roughly a third of lets say, Memphis. Not sure I agree this is Biblical as one writer made reference to in an earlier post. "But public panic, especially an ignorant and heavily armed public like we have in Mississippi, can be worse. If people knew the truth of how bad Covid-19 (literally a biblical plague) things could get messy really fast.
I think they are doing the right thing keeping the truth from the public." Last thing you really wanto do is keep people uninformed, that is when the real problem(s) occurs.

It will take two full weeks after we really lock down and then cases will fall rapidly. But we are not at day 1 yet if a real lockdown. Seen the Kroger parking lot?

Love the people who don't understand that our hospital system won't be able to handle even a few % of the population having it at the same time staying on brand. Don't ever change truthers.

Thanks for the link to that article on toilet paper, BTE. I knew most of what's been driving the TP demand intuitively but it's always nice to have confirmation from an informed source.

Quicker we all get it, the quicker we all get over it. Dead or alive.

I’m about a week away from buying a $6 grab and go bag.

There are two main areas of concern. First is protecting the at-risk population. Those people are going to need to continue to avoid unnecessary public exposure even after the initial wave is over. Once we can get the community transmission rate down and have rapid testing we should be able to quickly isolate those that are infected and trace their contacts. The current week-long delay in results is unacceptable. It won't be foolproof, but at least we can mitigate potential exposure as much as possible while reopening our society.

Second is to ensure our health system isn't overwhelmed by patients. There are a limited number of ICU beds, and in New Orleans 1/3 of the patients are on ventilators. That would be a big problem if we were faced with patients dying simply because we ran out of facilities.

This will all work out. I guess the question is if you are willing to make some short-term sacrifices to get us into a position to manage the situation or if you are willing to kill off all the old people quickly just so you can go to the bar on the weekend.

Madison county folks crazy!! Cars lined up all around the Tax Assessors office in Madison wanting to buy a tag! I guess none of those soccer moms planning to stay home!

11:42, have you spent your entire life a month late and 10 dollars short? If you don't have six months worth of food and a like minded crew, you are about to become food for a hungry gang. We are all about to be part of a Cormac McCarthy novel. And nobody has any excuses. Roland Emmerich, Steven Soderbergh, Rod Serling, and countless authors like Max Brooks have warned for decades. We are never recovering from this. Donald Trump will be the last POTUS. Balkinization of the USA and the EU are next. Followed by a rebellion against AI.

Now here is some really great news! Google's data mapping shows that Mississippians are using the subway systems 30% less in recent weeks! But unfortunately, Hinds needs to be more like Harrison. The subway use in Hinds is only down 9% whereas down on the coast, they are really cutting back - 41%! Way to go, Biloxi! Look, Jacksonians, if you just keep piling onto the Jackson subway system, we ain't never gonna beat this thing. Besides, where in the heck are you all going with everything but gun stores and Home Depot closed up? Can you even bring plywood, sheetrock, 10000 rolls of Charmin, and an AK47 onto a Jackson subway car?

@11:25 Yeah, in hindsight it makes sense. I know our grocery consumption has gone through the roof. TP naturally follows. Lots of little 'gotcha' moments to learn from.

3 million people in MS. Even if just 0.5% get sick (15,000), and 20% of those need hospital beds, you'd have 3,000 people in hospital beds. Can MS hospitals handle that?

COVID concern has never been about Ebola-style death rates, it is about management of resources. "Flattening-the-curve" isn't about reducing the number of sick, it's about slowing the demand on health care resources. "Quicker we get it, quicker we get over it" is an absolutely stupid response.

We have 1,358 cases BEFORE the statewide shutdown with a 2 week lag time on symptoms. Good luck to those of you that think this is all an overreaction.

Skynet will soon be coming online. Only Ahhnald can save us.

12:10 Where’s 3 on your side? You can’t make this *#! Up- why you people need a tag?!

According to the Harvard study posted here last week, Mississippi has about 12,000 hospital beds with 950 ICU beds.

You have to assume about half those will be used by other patients (heart attacks, car accidents, etc.), so 6,000 beds and 475 ICU beds are about what Mississippi can handle as far as COVID patients before the system starts to break down. Since a high percentage of hospitalized COVID patients ultimately need a ventilator it will be the ICU beds that will run out first. If we hit 1,500 hospitalizations I think we will be in trouble given New Orleans rate of 33% needing ventilation.

Agreeing with 1:02 pm, the primary concern here is our lack of capacity for the projected number of infected persons needing hospitalization. Given that we are already #1 in the nation for COVID hospitalization thanks in part to Tater's inaction, this does not bode well for our ability to slow the demand for health care resources in the near future.

Just got done running my errands. Flipped off every one of Antard's cameras I drove by. When you here that horn honking tonight Antard, that will be me.

Now here is some really great news! Google's data mapping shows that Mississippians are using the subway systems 30% less in recent weeks!

Can you tell me where the subway station in Jackson nearest to Farish Street is located?

If they're lined up at the tax assessor's office for a tag, they've got a long wait cuz you don't get tags at the assessor's office. Them madisonites are a smart bunch.

Calm the f@#k down! We will be fine.

@3:12 My father is 90 years old. Retired military officer. He's in good health, plays golf frequently, and enjoys life to its fullest. Family history says he still has more good years ahead of him. However, I also know if he gets this he will likely die. I'll calm down when people are taking reasonable actions to ensure they don't spread this disease to the vulnerable population any more than necessary.

People forget that the grocery stores are essential and will stay open. Folks are fighting over hotdogs at the krogers.

"Can you even bring plywood, sheetrock, 10000 rolls of Charmin, and an AK47 onto a Jackson subway car?"

There are so many things wrong with that post, it's hard to pick just one. I suspect the AK47 reference is a dead giveaway as to its origins.

"There are so many things wrong with that post, it's hard to pick just one. I suspect the AK47 reference is a dead giveaway as to its origins."

12:21 here, and nope, I'm not Russian, but I am laughin'. It was a joke/smartassed comment about Google's supposed location data which (allegedly) shows that Mississippians are using "transportation hubs" like subway stations/platforms 30% less. It's not secret - just, well, Google "Google COVID location data." As to the firearm, I just picked from many possible choices. Sub AR15 (or AR14 if you're a Biden supporter), Handirifle, or Confederate 12 pounder, if you wish...OK, comrade?

There is a subway station on Silas Brown right by Stuart Irby. Hop down in the hole and see where it carries you. It may be a little dark, kinda like bein' ♪on tha' nightrain! ♫ Ready to crash and burn
I never learn I'm on the nightrain......

Woo Woo all-aboard!.....Right?......uh, uh, Right?

4:15.

Exactly! I, like many people, have relatives and other friends who are considered vulnerable due to their ages. While a few of them may have less than a decade to go before leaving this life and going on to the next, anyone who expresses the attitude of “they were going to die soon anyway” as a way of attempting to justify their flawed opinions that this thing “isn’t a big deal, is being overblown, etc.,” is ignorant and stupid, or worse, just plain scum of human beings.

Getting together with some friends to play cards and drink beer tonight. Tough shit.

Good God man (12:14pm)! Don't post any further info. They will track you down.

Those that nature culls will not make it. When the weather heats up and the virus retreats, those still alive will go back to living. The real question then is on what will people spend their money. Those that make a living in non-essential jobs (like professional sports, entertainment, etc.) may be in for a career change.

Seems like you are getting two kinds of posts (1) depressing as hell and we older are going to die (2). Those that are trying to be humorous and shooting everyone the bird. I’m trying to comply and keep a positive attitude. I’m concerned for myself and my wife but more concerned for my children and grandchildren.

Sheep.

There's a middle ground to all of this.
To bad rational people have been silenced.

The 'leaders' are clueless.
They are bowing to liberal emotion.


People will kill each other if this continues.
What might work in New York, might not be the best method in Kosciusko.

Violence already concern in NYC.

I don't see a Tater thread so will ask the question here. Two days ago it was claimed that his offices had received more complaints and questions about his inclusion of fishing (not just the reservoir) being curtailed. It's been widely posted (with no links) that he walked that back and encouraged people to go fishing.

Without a landslide of goobers counseling us to stay out of the lakes, what is the official lockdown (or not) policy on lakes other than reservoir.

Oh, puhleeze, liar. Crime and violence is so low in NY they don't need the hospital boat. Save your "boogaloo" end of times crap for incels on 4chan. Or take your meds.

1. The virus not yet peaked.
2. The knowledge about who this virus kills is not yet fully known and changing.
a)The old and sick will always be the most at risk and counted first/die in
greater numbers for any virus for which there is NO immunity. That does
NOT MEAN YOUNG,HEALTHY PEOPLE WON'T DIE. THEY ALREADY are
b)The reason we were told to wear masks is the NEW information that it is
airborne.
c) Those who have the virus are contagious 48hrs. before symptoms appear.
3. Until everyone is tested we DON'T KNOW HOW MANY CASES THERE ARE!
4. This virus stays alive on surfaces from 4 to 72 hours.
5. Unlike the ordinary flu , the symptoms are much worse if you don't have a mild case and the traditional, over the counter flu medicines are going to ease your suffering.
6. Doctors, nurses, and other responders under age 60 are dying. This is likely because of REPEATED exposure.

I marvel at those who want to risk exposure with no vaccine or proven treatment in the near future. Yes, you may get immunity ( hope it's enough, we don't know yet), but unlike other viruses, this flu is at minimum 3 times more likely to kill you. And, even if YOU make it, how many will you kill?

I'm not nearly as concerned about the virus as I am to discover there are so many of you who seem to like the idea that you can kill the old or fat or those with non-life threatening health problems with without being charged with negligent homicide or murder. That means you are a sociopath and can't be trusted by anybody. You'd kill anyone you didn't like or who doesn't bend to your will if you thought you wouldn't get away with it.

Don't get too worked up over trolls.

Deranged @ 10:30 AM: "Crime and violence is so low in NY they don't need the hospital boat."

WSJ: Burglaries of businesses have risen in New York City under emergency measures to fight the new coronavirus, according to new New York Police Department data, and some businesses are boarding up their storefronts.

The NYPD has seen a 75% increase in reports of burglaries of commercial establishments from March 12, when New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio declared a state of emergency, to March 31, police officials said.

11:20, I appreciate the opinions/points of view you offered in the last two paragraphs, though you almost lost me with the outline of unsourced facts, liberally sprinkled with all caps.

I too am disturbed by the number of people who seem to delight in the "culling" of large groups of people they deem unfit. What if this so-called "natural selection," as some have labeled it, was based on character, or kindness, or contributions to society? I wonder how many of these self-styled social Darwinists would be left standing. I submit that the foregoing traits are currently more important to humanity's progress and survival than the physical traits we tend to obsess over.