Jackson Jambalaya

Are we starting to see a plateau?

Daily increase for last 5 days:

7%
13%
6%
10%
5%

Clearly the numbers are all over the place. I hope things even out and drop down. For those, like me, concerned over the huge inconsistencies day to day I can say unofficially that there are testing 'issues' in the state right now.

Would be a good thing for an investigator to check into...

This is perhaps the best simulation video I've seen so far. Shows differences between no abatement, social isolation, testing and tracing, community to community spread, etc.

https://youtu.be/gxAaO2rsdIs

How many people died from the flu last year?

Yahoo News: Smoking marijuana could make the lungs more susceptible to COVID-19

[L]ung health experts warn that smoking marijuana regularly could increase a person's risk of contracting COVID-19, and also having more severe symptoms and complications from the disease, given evidence on tobacco and COVID-19, and what we already know about how heavy marijuana-smoking can impact the lungs.
.....
Smoking marijuana could also make a person's COVID-19 symptoms worse compared to a non-smoker, Dr. Panagis Galiatsatos, a pulmonologist and national spokesperson for the American Lung Association, told Insider.

Galiatsatos said that people who smoke marijuana regularly are more likely to experience severe COVID-19 symptoms because evidence suggests marijuana smoking can cause cells in the lungs to die.

These cells typically promote germ removal and immune system response, so having fewer of them could lead to chronic health problems like respiratory infections.

10:28. if we didnt do all this distance stuff, literally millions of people in the country would have died. next year when it comes again it's not going to be an issue-we will have a clear treatment, vaccines...

take off the tin foil hat...

Every time I see someone post "How many died from the flu last year?" I can't help believe they were at Flag Island a couple weeks ago. #darwin

10:28 who cares? This isn't the flu

All we are trying to accomplish is to slow the spread. There is no reason to throw women and children over the side of the Titanic so you can have a spot in the lifeboat. Have some courage, understand that you will get Covid 19 at some point if you haven't already had it.

There is also a possibility that you have had it an not even know it, which is quite a bit of people. We don't know what that number is.

Again, the goal is "Slow the spread" not "end the virus"

IHME revises their models downward again. LOL LOL LOL

10:28 - 34,000 people died from the flu last year, according to the CDC. There was, as always, no real concerted effort to contain the flu.

By comparison, 13,000 people have died of Covid-19 in about a month. This was despite the most aggressive quarantine efforts in the history of the United States. And we expect the number to rise dramatically this month, despite, those efforts continuing.

Hopefully that helps you understand the orders of magnitude difference here.

I'm numb to it now. I've run out of money. I keep trying to apply for unemployment benefits, but their website sucks and their phones are jammed. I don't have much gas in my car. I don't have a mask and I dont have more than a weeks worth of food. At this point I hope I catch it so I can get some hospital care and sympathy.

@10:28, less than are estimated to die from COVID even with the aggressive measures that have been put in place to minimize the unnecessary deaths.

Some counties seem to be flattening out, while others do not. I'd like to know the common denominator of those areas that continue to increase in percentage of cases. Due to testing imperfections, I believe there is no way to know the answer for sure, though I suspect it has to do with willingness/ability to take direction, or just flat-out defiance. I really don't understand the compulsive need to congregate that some people seem to have, which may have something to do with it as well.

Can't post graphics, but if the Kingfish would take the data and post a column graph of new cases each day you will see a peculiar up and down high/low that are almost the same.
Not sure if it is bogged down in somebody reporting cases every 2 days rather than daily. That's what it looks like, just speculation

Reply to 10:28 AM

Flu Stats 2017-2018 CDC

Symptomatic Illnesses 44,802,629
Medical Visits 20,731,323
Hospitalizations 808,129
Deaths 61,099
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm

We are Living in a future History Lesson!

Are these patients or confirmed cases? Is there a hospitalized number and an ICU number available?

Can we still have Orgies?

@10:43 it didn't bother me anymore than anyone else, I just layed off the vape while I was sick.

Those damn Do-Gooders need to shut up about the daily numbers. they're just causing a run on the toilet paper.

Prayers are with anyone still posting "but the flu" at this point. Life must be tough for them.

177 new cases yesterday. 88 new cases today. Significant drop; we shall see if it continues to trend downward.

With the most draconian pandemic restrictions in over 100 years, 2,000 people died yesterday from COVID. It will take 10 more days at that level (assuming that the rate doesn't continue to increase) to pass almost every recent flu death toll. I'm not sure how that's hard to understand.

Number of patients in the hospital is on a chart on the Department of Health website linked in the post. Today's number is 410. I believe that is just confirmed cases as another chart indicates they are excluding over 600 cases under investigation from the percent in the hospital calculation. They aren't reporting ICU numbers, but Louisiana did and it was about 1/3 of all hospitalizations. I would think Mississippi's rate would be close as we have similar percentages of high-risk factors like diabeetus and obesity.

11:12, you lie when you say there was "no real effort" to contain the flu. Not only are there vaccines, there are antivirals to treat flu. It has a FAR lower death rate. But it still causes billions in losses. Thank God we have flu prevention programs and vaccines.

So, taking the nonsense you wrote and extrapolating it, if the seasonal flu was as deadly as 1918, before there were flu vaccines and antivirals, there would be 650,000 dead out of 100 million, or, in today's numbers, nearly 2,000,000 dead nowadays. Nice job.

Now, if we kept the mortality rate at other average seasonal flu levels in 1940s (as how we don't have a treatment or vaccine for this) like NON 1918 flu, we had 10.2 deaths per 100K. That's 30,000 flu deaths for plain old flu in a regular season, but sometimes we can keep that down nowadays. This AIN'T plain old flu.

So, not only is the FLU more deadly this year, it's in ADDITION to Covid.

As in, Commander in Chief, we are having WORLD WAR II level casualties (EXCESS deaths beyond normal) of 100,000 per year at best.

“Pandemics are different from seasonal outbreaks or ‘epidemics’ of influenza.”

“The hallmark of pandemic influenza is excess mortality.”

One recent official US death toll projection suggested that the next pandemic will kill 6 to 56 times more Americans than the CDC currently estimates die in an average nonpandemic influenza season.

And as to "no effort," let's look at facts: Spending

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) components of the pandemic vaccination program, $340 million
Antiviral drugs, $231 million
CDC domestic response, including outbreak investigations and production of a diagnostic test kit, $199 million
Hospital preparedness grants, $90 million


Seasonal flu imposes an $87.1 billion annual economic burden on the U.S.

But hey, t'ain't nuttin', Bubba. Why, in the ole days, we used to just laugh off this ole flu. What's a couple of million dead? And this here "novel" disease is just like the sniffles, right? That's just derp.

10:28 Not as damn many as would have if people hadn't gotten vaccinations and were without symptoms, but contagious.

Clueless= not understanding that other flus weren't pandemics because vaccinations and flu medications existed for those flus!

Micromanaging the daily number doesn't really help. It is only a reflection of testing, which is limited. The number we will eventually see is ? 1 million in Mississippi. So fractional reporting might be better. Ergo, as of today we have 0.08% of expected.

@11:31 If you look at on a per capita basis by country instead of gross numbers a LOT of counties go from looking bad to looking good.

Look at map here and select 'cases per 10,000'.

https://mississippitoday.org/2020/03/19/amid-first-reported-death-mississippi-hospitals-brace-for-covid-19-tidal-wave/

12:21 - I see this gets you very emotional. You clearly had some very urgent point you wanted to make. But let's calm down and look at what's actually being discussed.

No one is debating about the relative deadliness of Covid-19 versus a hypothetical flu that had no (1) herd immunity; (2) treatments; or (3) vaccine. Because these strong mitigation steps exist, nobody shuts down cities to try to "contain" the spread geographically.

The debate is over whether the fact that we don't quarantine for the flu (as it actually exists today) should influence whether we quarantine for Covid-19. The implication of 10:28's question is that the answer is yes. The data shows the answer is a clear no.

Do you understand now?

It is ironic that Bernie Sanders quit today. His major achievement is socialized medicine or national health insurance. Trump put it into place for one more disease, COVID-19. All costs for all patients are covered. Including the uninsured. The other disease like this is end-stage renal disease. It is also national health insurance as everyone with it is put on Medicare. With just a little more tweaking (add heart disease and maybe cancer) and we are there. Congratulations, Bernie, for your effort. You won.

If this is like the flu or the flu is worse, why don't New York hospitals get over run with flu patients every year and have to bring in morgue trucks and tent hospitals? Why doesn't flu make hospitals run out of PPE? Why doesn't flu cause a shortage in respirators? Why isn't the flu as contagious as Covid? Why isn't POTUS getting flu tests every couple of days? Why doesn't China lock down for the flu? Are the libs causing a panic in China? And Iran?

Good point and good info, BTE. Thanks. -11:31

On another note, I've seen the term "draconian" thrown around a lot lately. Here is what is really means:


draconian - adjective: The definition of draconian is laws or punishments that are extremely severe or cruel. When someone is put to death for stealing $1, this is an example of a draconian punishment.

https://www.yourdictionary.com/draconian

This is worst than the flu because it so contagious and just attacks the lung. Once we can come up with some treatment for this(hoping President is right) then we can talk about getting back to life. Once we can tell people if you get this you are chances of surviving are excellent and the discomfort will be only 2-3 days not 2 hard weeks then we can move on. But High risk I think will have to stay quarantined until we have some sort of vaccine

"draconian - adjective: The definition of draconian is laws or punishments that are extremely severe or cruel. When someone is put to death for stealing $1, this is an example of a draconian punishment."

Um, well, making a few multicultural segments of society not only limit their own Walmart shopping, but preventing them from taking the whole family too, is I am certain they would argue "extremely severe." And not allowing them to run amok, I have no doubt they would also argue, is "cruel." And to top it off, a subset of those segments would further insist it is "racist" as well.

Better Than Ever said...

I would expect to see the following numbers come out.

847
957 (937 actual) (3-30-2020) (2% error)
1,081 (1073 actual) (3-31-2020) (1% error)
1,221 (1177 actual) (4-1-2020) (4% error)
1,379 (1358 actual) (4-2-2020) (2% error)
1,558 (1455 actual) (4-3-2020) (7% error)
1,760 (1638 actual) (4-4-2020) (7% error)
1,988
2,246
2,537

I'd be interested to see how the deaths are being classified and if comorbidities and contributing factors are considered. For example, a lung cancer patient who succumbed to respiratory failure where COVID-19 was a contributing factor, and not the root cause/genesis of the illness. I'd also like to see a study of how vaping, smoking contributes to, or exacerbates the symptoms of COVID-19.

Glad numbers are going down. Also surprised at the amount of people on this site (not really) that don't understand how social distancing works.

Look, until we get a therapeutic, things aren't going to open up. You can forget it. Now, I think we are in a better spot than most countries because of Capitalism. Everyone in the world is working on treatments right now. When this thing comes back heavy in the fall (which it will) we will be better prepared. No matter what, you are going to lose money. It is what it is. It's gonna happen. Even for the "lets just take the lumps" crowd, the money is already gone. That's over. We have to regroup and look ahead. We need a national plan on combating this and that depends on rapid testing, surveillance and treatments until we get a vaccine. It's kinda simple but people are being bullheaded because of money. People are going to become broke over this. It's a sad reality.

@2:27 I submit new numbers but somehow they don't get posted. Strange.

Dr. Birx has stated that anyone dying with Covid, regardless of other and underlying issues, is a Covid death. Having a MI and passing in the hospital, is a Covid death not a Cardiac issue, per her.

Even funnier than BTE's self-anointment as an expert is Melvin's. LOL Lecture us about money Melvin after you actually figure out how to make some. You've never had any serious green to lose so give it a rest.

@5:21 If someone posting high school level math appears to be an 'expert' to you, then I think that's all we need to know.

Some encouraging news just read: "The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced new coronavirus guidance Wednesday saying some essential workers who have been exposed to COVID-19 but are not showing symptoms can return to work.

Each worker would need to take his or her temperature twice a day for signs of a fever and wear a face mask at work and out in public to prevent the spread of the virus, Dr. Robert Redfield, the director of the CDC, said at Wednesday's White House coronavirus briefing.

DR. FAUCI: 'WE'RE STARTING TO SEE GLIMMERS OF HOPE ' BUT DISTANCING STRATEGIES MUST BE 'INTENSIFIED'

Redfield said the guidance was an effort to "really begin to get these critical workers back into the workforce so that we won't have worker shortage in these critical industries," including first responders, health-care workers, food supply workers and more.

The CDC also was encouraging employers to take their employees' temperatures at the beginning of the workday and send home any workers who showed symptoms. In addition, officials said buildings should increase their air exchange and increase the frequency of how they clean common rooms and areas.

Employees still have been discouraged from congregating in break rooms, lunchrooms or any large gathering spaces, Redfield said.

The new considerations by the CDC signaled the slightest hope for a return to normalcy in the U.S. even as the death toll reached 13,929 and the country continues to grapple with 404,352 cases of the virus.
New York Gov. Cuomo: Antibody test could be critical in speeding up return to normalcy Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told Fox News' "America's Newsroom" on Wednesday that if the social distancing strategies implemented through the end of April are successful in slowing the curve and spread of coronavirus, the government could start to peel back some of the restrictions in the weeks to come.

“If, in fact, we are successful, it makes sense to at least plan what a re-entry into normality would look like,” Fauci told Fox News. “That doesn’t mean we’re going to do it right now, but it means we need to be prepared to ease into that.”

Even though “we’re starting to see some glimmers of hope,” the United States needs to “keep pushing on the mitigation strategies,” Fauci said, reiterating that tactics such as social distancing need to continue because “there is no doubt that that’s having a positive impact on the dynamics of the outbreak.”

Fauci, a member of the White House Coronavirus Task Force, said that although the death toll is staggering in the U.S. -- and third to only Italy and Spain with the highest number of deceased -- "the deaths generally lag by a couple of weeks behind what's fueling the outbreak, namely the number of new cases and the number of hospitalizations.”

Still, health officials, including Fauci, remain skeptical of reopening the country's economy too soon, as recent studies suggest that some people who are infected with the virus do not show any symptoms, while others who have developed symptoms of COVID-19 and recovered may remain contagious.

Fauci told reporters during a press briefing Sunday that between 25 and 50 percent of infected Americans are not exhibiting symptoms of the virus.

“That is an estimate. I don’t have any scientific data yet to say that,” he added."

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Bernie won? Cancer gets you Medicare? Sign me up. I’ve had two + years of treatments for cancer- including one out of four of my chemo ingredients that cost 75K per year- and I don’t have Medicare. I have bills and a broken body and soon a bankruptcy. Some of you have never been self employed and insured and then deathly ill- and it shows.