Wednesday, February 8, 2012

PIMCO's Bill Gross has a few things to say about the economy

Liberal or conservative, Republican or Democrat, read this essay by PIMCO's Bill Gross. He has a few things to say about the economy and they are worth reading as he points out the upside to bonds is nearly zero while the downside is huge:

"Most short to intermediate Treasury yields, however, are dangerously close to the zero-bound which imply little if any room to fall: no margin, no air underneath those bond yields and therefore limited, if any, price appreciation. What incentive does a bank have to buy two-year Treasuries at 20 basis points when they can park overnight reserves with the Fed at 25? What incentives do investment managers or even individual investors have to take price risk with a five-, 10- or 30-year Treasury when there are multiples of downside price risk compared to appreciation? At 75 basis points, a five-year Treasury can only rationally appreciate by two more points, but theoretically can go down by an unlimited amount. Duration risk and flatness at the zero-bound, to make the simple point, can freeze and trap liquidity by convincing investors to hold cash as opposed to extend credit.

Where else can one go, however? We can’t put $100 trillion of credit in a system-wide mattress, can we? Of course not, but we can move in that direction by delevering and refusing to extend maturities and duration. Recent central bank behavior, including that of the U.S. Fed, provides assurances that short and intermediate yields will not change, and therefore bond prices are not likely threatened on the downside. Still, zero-bound money may kill as opposed to create credit. Developed economies where these low yields reside may suffer accordingly. It may as well, induce inflationary distortions that give a rise to commodities and gold as store of value alternatives when there is little value left in paper.

Where does credit go when it dies? It goes back to where it came from. It delevers, it slows and inhibits economic growth, and it turns economic theory upside down, ultimately challenging the wisdom of policymakers. We’ll all be making this up as we go along for what may seem like an eternity. A 30-50 year virtuous cycle of credit expansion which has produced outsize paranormal returns for financial assets – bonds, stocks, real estate and commodities alike – is now delevering because of excessive “risk” and the “price” of money at the zero-bound. We are witnessing the death of abundance and the borning of austerity, for what may be a long, long time
." Rest of essay


This is a dilemma facing PERS as over half of its portfolio is in equities. The problem is, there will likely be little price appreciation in treasuries while the yields are near zero and below the inflation rate- thus PERS would lose money if it replaces equities holdings with short-term treasuries.

16 comments:

Shadowfax said...

Meanwhile....Hannity, Ingraham, Beck and Liddy are recommending we all buy gold.

Fred Thompson and Robert Wagner (like billions of other Americans) are living off the Reverse Mortgage Program.

The only place we can find comfort and truth is here on the JJ site.

Doom, Despair and Misery on you (with apologies to Grandpa Jones)

Anonymous said...

Stacey Wall of Pinnacle Trust here in Jackson had a very interesting analysis of the investment economy last week. Wall is known for being months ahead of everyone else in accurately calling major market and economy shifts. One thing he stated that adds to the Gross analysis is that municipal bonds may yield more than other bonds. Wall had other pertinent things to say and his analysis should be heeded by others.

Anderson said...

OT, I am mildly surprised to see the Ridgeland alderman-at-large race totally off the radar at JJ (except of course in the ads column).

D.I. and Li'l McGee in the runoff; Cassandra Walter dead last again, but hoping to prove a "role model for women."

(Not clear why women can't have male role models; I guess it has something to do with a bouffant hairdo.)

Anonymous said...

Don't buy treasuries because when the rate finally starts to go up (when they stop printing money in 5 years...) The one's you have will be worth less than the actual dollar amount you paid for them. What a great job the government (Citi, JP Morgan, and insurance companies) is doing to protect our financial system.

Anonymous said...

interesting piece, wish I could understand evrything he says.
de-leveraging the credit markets
has the same multiplier effect, except negative consequences.

Anonymous said...

I drove past a polling place yesterday (trying not to get hit in a high-speed pursuit) and got distracted by a big poster showing an even bigger bouffant. Didn;t catch the name, though, but suspect 8:53 is referring to her.

I'm glad the guy that was on Supertalk the night before, ignoring the RPD tragedy, got defeated. D.I was really the only guy looking out for taxpayers in Ridgeland. Another McGee? caveat emptor, Ridgeland...

Anonymous said...

For those that like to keep up with economics and finance the blog I recommend is Calculated Risk an eye opener to global finance, wallstreet, mainstreet and the housing market. Lurk for several days and you will get the education you were intended to get and not owe one dime to Uncle Sugar. Oh, keep your politics a secret and it will be an enjoyable ride.

Anonymous said...

Calculated Risk sure as hell doesn't keep its politics, spectrum leanings nor pro-Keynesian bent secret.

Kingfish said...

I've had CR in the feeds for several years now. That blog is very good when it comes to matters of real estate.

Anonymous said...

Other good blogs are Mish's global economic trends, zerohedge, naked capitalism, and Dealbreaker. As for Gross and PIMCO, they lost money last year shorting Treasuries in the belief rates would rise. If you were long Treasuries and muni's last year, you did well. Bernanke and talking heads refuse to accept we are in same position as Japan....new low/no growth paradigm, aging population with generous but in adequately funded pensions, and a stagnant birth rate (fewer future tax payers). Japan has been zero bound for 20 years, even offering 40-year government bonds.....punishing the Japanese public, which is the largest purchaser of their debt. The bar is in the U.S. is closed, now it's time to pay the tab and feel all the bad effects of poor consumptive behavior.

Kingfish said...

Zero Hedge, Market Ticker, Mish, Calculated Risk, WSJ, and Housing Wire are on this website in the feeds column. I would say Gross is now taking that attitude. Told you guys four years ago we were going the Japan route and sure enough, we are.

Anonymous said...

As for Gross and PIMCO, they lost money last year shorting Treasuries in the belief rates would rise.

Gross might have made some bad higher level bets but PIMCO funds have been rock solid.

Anonymous said...

Nothing against PIMCO or Gross, but returns are a matter of timing, so "rock solid" is truly relative. His funds have far higher fees than others, and no-loads such as Vanguard (with minimal fees) are where you want to be given low bond yields. With interest rates being zero bound, it will be hard for Gross and other fixed income fund managers to keep clients, as so much of the low yield on his investments is further eroded by his fees. Just a reality.

Anonymous said...

http://www.zerohedge.com/taxonomy/term/137

Looks as though Gross has leveraged his fund by 35% in placing his next bet on MBS, waiting for the Fed to bail out more mortgages with QE3. This is one of the other problems with low rates......fund managers are enticed to use leverage to obtain returns and offset their high fees.

KaptKangaroo said...

I think that is a high risk bet. Reason is the Bank Agreement today. It was penance for agressive foreclosure. They paid. They will foreclose, with precision and reckless abandon. Just my opinion and you know what you can do with that.

Anonymous said...

Somebody has a burr in their saddle for PIMCO.



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