Jackson Jambalaya

The unemployment graph is telling. While conventional wisdom views unemployment as a lagging indicator a growing number of economists are revisiting that theory as they become convinced that in this meltdown unemployment has morphed into a leading indicator because increasing income losses and debt defaults are exponentially exascerbating our deep economic malaise. (Similar to your own reporting that mortgages previously considered solid and safe are now foreclosing in new monthly record numbers.)

Not only should unemployment be viewed as a leading indicator of more bad news to come but the unemployement data trend is higher, not flat or lower, despite the euphoria this week of lower than expected first time claims. Take California for example which stands on the brink of economic calamity. The tenth largest economy in the world led the nation in April job losses and has the 5th highest unemployment rate. Anyone who thinks that won't have a ripple effect nationwide is smoking too much of that good Eastover weed.

As we have seen firsthand here in Jackson poplation losses add to the misery. In the Census Bureau year ending July08 the two states with the highest net outflow of population was California and New York (another basket case on economic life support). As both of those states provide some of the most (obscenely) generous social program handouts in the United States you can bet the ranch that the people leaving are not those on public assistance.

The Executive Director of the National Association of State Budget Officers is on CSPAN this week communicating that at least 35 states are forecasting FY10/11 revenues LOWER than FY09/10. In other words a minimum of 70% of our states are predicting not only serious but also accelerating budgetary shortfalls over the next two years.

Hang on because we haven't seen anything yet. And say a prayer for Haley Barbour -- the best friend Mississippi taxpayers have ever had.

Many of us knew this was coming and begged people NOT to vote for Obama. Just thought it would not happen this soon.

I knew it would start happening when that stimulus bill passed. Combined with the bailout bill from October that was 1.5 trillion alone not counting anything else.

The unemployment figure as a leading indicator theory is very interesting to me and has much validity. You are seeing so many prime defaults now and that is one of the main reasons why. The subprime has been flushed out of the system but all those prime loans are failing. FHA is seeing a huge spike in first payment defaults and is going to need its own bailout soon. By the way, one of the main reasons Realty went under was because of the high number of defaults on its books.

What I'm trying to find is the cost for credit default swaps for Mississippi and how it has risen or fallen over the last year.

I might take the first comment and give it its own post as it was a rather good one.

Absolutely devastating story running on CNN this evening about the foreclosure problem in Las Vegas and how it is not abating but growing.

What I can't figure out is how anyone is tying this generally to "Obama", when only five months ago, both presidential candidates were trumpeting many of the same "solutions" for the deepening economic crisis.

While there is much MMQB'ing going on from different places including Republicans, it is impossible to know how a Republican president and staff would have treated this situation differently.

It is convenient to blame "Obama" generally, but the mess was there before he got there. Rising unemployment as an immediate indicator or a lagging indicator isn't the fault of the president.

Now, maybe pointing out that decisions he has made since then have not helped the problem is valid. But, considering that we are five months into his term which began after the recession had been in swing for at least a year, isn't it basically worthless to just say, "told you Obama would do this"?

I am not a Keynesian, and I am worried for sure about some of the things that are going on. However, I know that many Republicans as well were trumpeting similar solutions to the myriad issues going on right now such as the car industry, the mortgage crisis, etc.

So, why can't we Americans be in the crisis together and try to get out together? Why do we have to draw and quarter the president right now? His policies cannot possibly be analyzed today. It will be years before we know whether what is going on has actually been helpful or a hindrance.

Making blanket comments about Obama in this context smacks of hidden biases beyond any actual concern of his handling of the recession crisis.

perhaps when the White House states that the indicators were worse than people expected and therefore the economy is turning around might be a reason?

Or maybe perhaps that a bill was rushed through without anyone reading it at the White House's request because everyday we waited would mean we would die?

or maybe it's the fact that socializing things isn't the answer and therefore socialing more things is more of a wrong answer.

there's plenty to blame on Obama for trying to take advantage of a negative to make political paybacks

perhaps when the White House states that the indicators weren't worse than people expected and therefore the economy is turning around might be a reason?



that's how it should have read

that is the point; making comments like "socializing things isn't the answer" is just spinning your wheels.

the Republican party was as hard on for most of these alleged "Obama" tactics during the election. Most of the same tactics would have been employed by McCain had he won.

you think McCain would have let the car industries sink and let that mess play out organically without influx from government?

you think Republicans would have allowed multiple big bank failures and let that mess play out organically without influx from government?

do you think that the Republicans would have been under less political pressure to hammer out a bill quickly and wouldn't have done so?

that's the point; we are both guessing as to what someone else WOULD HAVE DONE, which is worthless. although, the indication from both parties was that they were both in favor of most of the same types of action to get over the hump; so we do know that Republican talking points are disingenuous when they explain what all would have been done differently.

blaming the current president, either Obama or McCain, is ridiculous. the crisis with the car industry is 30 years in the making, spanning both Republican and Democrat regimes.

the housing crisis is a decade in the making, spanning at least one Democrat and Republican regime.

don't pillory a president who is doing more in his first 5 months on social and foreign issues than the last guy did in 8 years.

credit card reform? check. student loan accessibility? check.
stem cell research? check.
Guantanamo? check. OH, and Bush acknowledged that closing Git was inevitable. So, don't pillory him for doing something that the last guy was behind as well.

that is the point; making comments like "socializing things isn't the answer" is just spinning your wheels.

the Republican party was as hard on for most of these alleged "Obama" tactics during the election. Most of the same tactics would have been employed by McCain had he won.

you think McCain would have let the car industries sink and let that mess play out organically without influx from government?

you think Republicans would have allowed multiple big bank failures and let that mess play out organically without influx from government?

do you think that the Republicans would have been under less political pressure to hammer out a bill quickly and wouldn't have done so?

that's the point; we are both guessing as to what someone else WOULD HAVE DONE, which is worthless. although, the indication from both parties was that they were both in favor of most of the same types of action to get over the hump; so we do know that Republican talking points are disingenuous when they explain what all would have been done differently.

blaming the current president, either Obama or McCain, is ridiculous. the crisis with the car industry is 30 years in the making, spanning both Republican and Democrat regimes.

the housing crisis is a decade in the making, spanning at least one Democrat and Republican regime.

don't pillory a president who is doing more in his first 5 months on social and foreign issues than the last guy did in 8 years.

credit card reform? check. student loan accessibility? check.
stem cell research? check.
Guantanamo? check. OH, and Bush acknowledged that closing Git was inevitable. So, don't pillory him for doing something that the last guy was behind as well.

That's about the dumbest bunch of excusism I've read.

We don't need to blame someone for doing more in their first five months for something they shouldn't be blamed for because at least they are doing something? Really?

"Doing something" isn't necessarily doing what's right. Saying "'socializing things isn't the answer' is just spinning your wheels" is deflecting what is occurring using some utopian eraser of "Hope" and "Change" just for their sake, regardless if the impact is good or bad. There's plenty of blame to be had by both parties for where we are but the unwillingness to accept that the current administration is to blame for what is continuing in the face of what it promised is shameful in it's willingness to assume the reader is THAT stupid.

Your convoluted hypocritical defense of the current President, by saying he's done more in the first five months yet can't be blamed for what he has done, while continuing to blame the past for what has already occurred instead of blaming the present for what is going to occur, is either laced with partisan apologidealogy or is juvenile in it's attempt to paint away this speedball to socialism.

dude, how many Republicans voted for that bailout bill without reading it?

Roughly the sme amount of Democrats would be my first guess.

Andrew, you aren't a Keynesian but you want us all in this thing together? That's odd.

At this point I suppose those of us who don't believe a staggering unprecedented debt fueled re-bubble has any remote chance of succeeding have little choice (until the 2010 elections) but to watch it all unfold. As you wish we'll be right there with you as we descend further into the shitter.

I don't know how old you are but anyone under the age of 30 should be burning the federal state of Washington DC to the ground for what they are doing to their futures. Our currency is going to massively devalue. I hope you are ready.

By and large, a much larger percentage of Democrats voted for the Tarp bailout of 2008 than Republicans.

Of course, very few Republicans voted for the Economic Recovery bill of 2009 that no one read.

2 different bills but mostly opposed by Republicans