Tuesday, September 1, 2020

C19 Update: 20 Deaths, 634 Cases


The Mississippi State Department of Health reported 634 new cases of the Wuhan virus yesterday as well as 20 new deaths. The total number of cases is 83,584. The virus has caused 2,493 deaths. Nursing home deaths comprise 40% of overall Covid-19 deaths in Mississippi. There are 67,918 recoveries. More information and a complete list of infected counties can be found at the MSDH website. The Rt factor is 0.86.
The big chart shows tremendous improvement.  There are 309 fewer hospitalizations than there were on August 11. There are 127 less ICUs and 78 fewer vents for the same period as well.

The Rt value is at its lowest level in quite some time.

The CDC released a little bit of news that set the internet aflame today:

Table 3 shows the types of health conditions and contributing causes mentioned in conjunction with deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death. The number of deaths with each condition or cause is shown for all deaths and by age groups. For data on comorbidities,
Quite a few people read this the wrong way and said "See, I told you.  This virus doesn't kill anyone."  Um, not so fast my friends.

The virus is killing the patients.  The underlying conditions make the patients that more susceptible to the worst effects of the virus.  The co-morbidities compromise the immune system and the body's overall health.  Think of the patient before covid-19 as a boxer who is out on his feet, leaning against the ropes.   Covid-19 enters the ring and delivers the fatal blow to the patient.

What the CDC stated is not news.  The Health Department has been providing this chart since the pandemic began.

The totals change but the look of the chart has not changed much over the last few months in Mississippi.  This website has stated more than once that those who have underlying conditions such as diabetes and blood pressure had more to fear from the virus than those who were healthy.   However, those who are skeptical of Covid-19 anyway ran with that 6% number and screamed it was all a hoax today. 

Well, sorry buttercups, but you were wrong.  Covid-19 kills people who already have conditions such as those listed above.  Some might have survived for decades with those conditions but for Covid-19.  

What took place today was not fake news, it just was not news at all.   


Anonymous said...

How do you find the Rt value chart on the MDH website? I've been poking around for a few minutes and cannot find it.

Anonymous said...

Considering that 65-75% of Mississippians are overweight, and 50% are obese, according to health standards, it would be an almost automatic that the COVID deaths in Mississippi would have at least one underlying condition. And the fact that obesity tends to high blood pressure, and/or heart issues, that would add another.

This is certainly not news, but yet those that hate having their "freedoms" encroached (can't go to a sporting event, have to wear a mask - hell it might even be having to wash their hands and not pick their noses) they want to jump on this and rewrite the CDC announcement as ---- COVID only killed 6% of the 200,000 deaths nationwide. Or the 2500 deaths in Mississippi.

Of course they would be wrong, but they can use their middle finger to pick their noses and act like they have been right all along.

Anonymous said...

So you have thrown in with the hoax. Good to know where you stand. As if your censorship didn't already give us so many clues.

Anonymous said...

Why do I feel like EVERYONE is lying to me about all of this?

Anonymous said...

I hope it continues dropping, but it looks like we have have hit a plateau. Deaths have pretty consistently been at 25 per day and hospitalizations/ICU/vent have been relatively flat for the past five days. The one-time drop to 627 on the 29th was likely just an anomaly caused by one hospital not getting their report in on time on the weekend.

This is not where we want to be. Washington Post still has us at #7 in the nation for infection rates over the past week and a resounding #1 in mortality. We need to see those numbers drop by at least another 50% before we are even average.

And for what its worth, the lower cases appear to be in part to lower testing. Using data at covidtracking.com, during the month of July we tested an average of 5,359 people per day. That has dropped to 3,755 people per day in August. I guess Tater pulled some strings and got testing slowed down like he wanted. Less testing means less cases, right?

8:14 There are a couple of places to get an estimated Rt. Kingfish uses https://rt.live/ but there is another good one at https://covid19-projections.com/us-ms with both of them fairly close right now.

Anonymous said...

8.39......because they are.

Anonymous said...

It is what it is.

Anonymous said...

It’s all a hoax until you or your loved one is in the hospital struggling to live.

Anonymous said...

Okay do why are there 250,000 more deaths this year during the same period as last year?

Unknown said...

So the virus has a 99% recovery rate, only 6 % of deaths is due to Covid alone, 94% have 2.6 additional comorbidities, and almost half of all deaths occurred in nursing homes, but yet we are going to strip small businesses of their livelihoods, restrict freedom of religion, not allow for ethical and compassionate healthcare of other diseases ( canceling of biopsies and other preventative healthcare) make healthy people quarantine and wear masks...@ kingfish have you analyzed deaths from all diseases in MS comparing 2019 til August and 2020 numbers??? Dr Fauci on video stating that Asymptomatic people are not the spreaders of transmission.... divorces, depression, suicides , can you analyze those numbers ?

Anonymous said...

According to John Hopkins, C-19 in the U.S. has a mortality rate of 3.1%.


I don't understand why people keep insisting it's 1% or less, unless they are just willing to bend all of the variables and unknowns in favor of their preconceived argument/belief. For example, the comment at 10:06, which takes 40% and turns it into "almost half."

Kingfish said...


Anonymous said...

"It’s all a hoax until you or your loved one is in the hospital struggling to live."

No disrespect to your loved one, but the questions must be asked:
1) How old are they?
2) What is the quality of their overall health?

Per the CDC this week - Those two things have far more reaching implications than the actual virus.

Green Acres said...

Less C-19 testing means fewer cases are identified, and "it is what it is". Why don't we apply the same concepts to the illegal immigrant issue? Stop counting illegals who cross the border and dismiss those who do with the stupid statement that "it is what it is"?. See, the numbers problem is solved so illegal immigration becomes just a hoax and no one cares if they do come here. In fact, we should apply these principles to everything that can be politicized and make America great again!

Anonymous said...

10:34 You need to take a good look at the underlying data from the site you are quoting. It is only using clinically confirmed positive cases as the denominator. There are many, many people who got infected with COVID and did not get tested and therefore excluding them from the calculation makes the mortality rate misleadingly high.

The general consensus based on random testing of populations for evidence of prior infection with COVID is that the total mortality is around 0.6%.

Anonymous said...

10:06 Dr. Fauci did not say asymptomatic people do not spread the disease. In fact, just recently he said "There's no doubt that there's asymptomatic infection and that asymptomatic people can transmit and that you can and should test asymptomatic people".

Some of the worst outbreaks of COVID have been traced to people who were no showing any symptoms at the time of the gathering. Asymptomatic people may not be the primary means of spreading COVID, but they most certainly are an infection vector.

Anonymous said...

Dr. Dobbs ventilating. Guess he knows better.


Anonymous said...

In line with the Sid Salter post of today's date, are the folks dying getting posted to confirm what they actually died from or are we just throwing Covid on their certificate to qualify for government monies.

Anonymous said...

@8:40. The daily total death number is useless unless you subtract out the deaths they add into the total from weeks ago. More reliable metrics are the hospitalizations, icus, and vent numbers.

Anonymous said...

It seems that many of you cannot seem to understand that an "underlying condition" is not the same as a fatal condition.

There are several " underlying conditions" common in my family and yet, due perhaps to having the "longevity gene", the earliest we die is 83 and many live to be over 100 except in war.(data exists for 400 yrs on causes of death and we have DNA for 3 generations).

How you have concluded that we should accept giving up 10-80 years of our lives( which are productive until a few weeks before death) because " we are going to die anyway" is astounding.

That you assume you have no "underlying conditions" points to your lack of understanding that you could indeed have one but it hasn't progressed to the point of being diagnosable.

I would also, today, point out that what I expected to happen is happening...the long term care percentage continues to fall. Yeah, the cruise ship percentage fell too. That people who were old and frail in a confined space died first isn't surprising.

What is surprising is that with a " new" (previously unknown) virus you quickly jumped to conclusions rather than wait for it to be better understood.

What is shocking is that you continue to put too much weight on statistics that are irrelevant on a day to day basis.

One thing is true, if we did no tests, there would be no confirmed cases. There would still ravage our society, but we could all pretend it didn't exist.

That the test reduction is so far less when one country tested 11 million citizens in 3 weeks is disgraceful.

The ideal would be test everyone and quarantine all who have it.

Again, our best hope this five minutes until a vaccine is available, is the saliva test that would identify and isolate the spreaders.

You " herd immunity" people are really bad at math. In a country this size the time and toll are unacceptable and we live on a continent, not an island. If that weren't enough, there's air travel now. Please people. Try to look outside your personal bubble.

Opinions are like a**holes, everyone's got one, but not all of those are equally attractive or functional.

Theca Jones of the Roguish Gent Podcast said...

I see that 6% thing is kicking a lot of people asses. Gotta stop going to these schools that tell you the Earth is 6,000 years old.

Anonymous said...

To 8:04, Clinically-confirmed numbers are the only hard numbers we have. However, assuming asymptomatic (non-tested) cases are 50% of the total number of actual cases, that's still a mortality rate of more than 1.5%, which is more than double your 0.6% figure.

Do you have a credible scientifically-sourced basis for your figure of 0.6%? Or are you engaging in some of the "unless they are just willing to bend all of the variables and unknowns in favor of their preconceived argument/belief" that I referenced? Were did you get your information that asymptomatic/non-tested C-19 cases outnumber confirmed cases by a ratio of 4 to 1?


Anonymous said...

10:02 The 0.6% number came from the World Health Organization.


And the number of actual cases is probably closer to 10 times the confirmed cases according to testing done by the CDC.


Anonymous said...

Those saying "no one died" in response to 6% death or calling hoax are obviously in most cases speaking hyperbolically. Hoax refers to the response, forcing everything to shut down, everyone to mask up, vociferous public shaming, damning anyone who disagrees with you as someone who has no concern for human life whatsoever (Not that you do KF, but many others do). Average life expectancy in the US is 75, the median age of death with COVID is 78. We understand that it's dangerous, but so are many other things that have never brought out this type of response. Many among the elderly and health compromised have been made to live in fear, forced to die alone, or missed out on what would be treasured memories in the waning time of their life because others think they should get to decide what is best for them. You say if we don't do what you say is best then people will suffer (with sickness) and die (from sickness), and maybe you're right, but do you have any concern for the suffering (depression, loneliness) and death (suicide, lack of medical care) that your solutions cause? Or do you just choose to stay blindly secure in your so called virtue?

Anonymous said...

9:12 I'm looking at the chart on the MDHS site that shows the information by actual day of death, not the date it was reported to the agency, so all the previous deaths they identify are shown on the proper date.

Anonymous said...

Open up and roll the dice. People get sick and a rare few will die, so be it. Will happen over and over again from now on. You, me or anyone else can't stop it.

Anonymous said...

Ah, the heartbreak of Covidiocy..... Covidiocy is the highest risk factor around here for Mississippians getting a sufficating case of C19 or of laughing it off spreading it asymptomatically to one's closest friends, parents and grandparents. Covidiocy is disparaging the need for masks whenever you go out of your house, or the need to stay away from groups. Covidiocy is Tate's extending the mask mandate two weeks at a time instead of declaring it in effect until a safe, effective vaccine is widely deployed. Best advice, avoid contact with Covidiots not wearing masks or trying to get you to a party or to a wedding reception not wearing masks or laughing off the virus as someone else's problem.

Calm Down said...

@11:18 - Bravo!

To those demanding more and ever increasing testing for all - any idea of the cost per test and who is paying? Somewhere around $100, although you can pay a bit less or a lot more. https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2020/06/17/covid-test-cost#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20New%20York,as%20%24100%20or%20less.

We've spent $8 billion so far on average for testing, and run about $7 million per day based on 700K tests. https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_coronavirus_tests_administered_per_day

At what point would we consider that sufficient testing? Should we force people to line up and get tested? If they refuse, what's the penalty? Have you heard of anyone being refused who asked for a test?

If a person has a positive test, exactly what does that mean? That person has some level of fragmentary snippets of virus from some corona virus which might be covid 19. Nothing more or less.

Anyone notice the NYT finally acknowledge that the PCR testing has been deliberately calibrated to indicate 'positive' based on how many cycles the sample is put through to amplify the fragments? https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/29/health/coronavirus-testing.html

Depending on how many cycles you put the sample through, everyone will test positive. How many cycles are the other countries using? No one can tell you.

At some point, I'd like to find samples from people who died prior to 2019 and run that through the pcr test and find out how many would test positive.

Jacksun said...

11:48: "Roll the dice" and see "who dies"? Really? Ok, so let's start with your family, your friends and groups "rolling the dice" and then report back to the rest of us in 6 months time how it all turned out. Or wait until there is a vaccine and follow CDC guidelines for reopening in the meantime and wear your mask every place every day until a vaccine is widely deployed. Don't be a Covidiot.

Anonymous said...

Well Jacksun, 3 in my family did contract it and did fine, me included and after being tested still show positive. Did the required hiding and such. Thanks for your concern. What do you do about those that will refuse the vaccine and not following guidelines that you seem to assume we didn't. CDC guidelines also change day to day and it seems they are refuted as well by "other" experts. Stay hidden.

Anonymous said...

I believe the WHO mortality rate is worldwide, not the U.S. That the John Hopkins data showS we have five times that mortality rate should tell us something, but it probably doesn’t.

Anonymous said...

Already had an outbreak at a Madison school and they can't find subs either...

Anonymous said...

There are two distinct numbers to look at, mortality rate and per-capita death rate.

Mortality rate is the percentage of people who contract COVID and die. As noted above the worldwide number given by WHO is 0.6%, but the CDC put the U.S. mortality rate at 0.26%


Johns Hopkins is not taking into account people who did not get tested, and that is a substantial number. It's not just asymptomatic people either. I personally know people who got sick with COVID-like symptoms that called their doctor and were told to just stay home unless they felt like they were in serious trouble.

Our per-capita death total is so high because our infection rate is one of the worst in the world. An American has less than half the chance of dying if they get it, but we also have ten times the chance of getting it in the first place because the disease is spreading completely uncontrolled.

Anonymous said...

Calm Down

Your first error of many Is assuming that those who aren’t dismissing this virus are not calm. We are. Facts are calming, is myths created to assuage “ fear of the unknown”.

Your testing costs are based on the Keystone Cops approach our government took rather than what costs are elsewhere. And the mixed messages from CDC were initially “ best guess” in an absence of information and a necessary need to avoid limited protection from being hosted or going where it wasn’t needed.

Thanks to Keystone “ precinct sargeants”,supplies weren’t targeted properly and also a bidding war ensued. Worse is they undermined experts to protect their “ Chief”.

Those of us who think source of information is important, who understand statistics, and math and science can protect ourselves. We are angry that those of you who don’t are making the pandemic worse and the economy more damaged in the long run by either your politics or your inability to comprehend. You are limiting our current mobility and dealing unnecessarily “ a return to normal.

Calm Down said...

@9:56 OM

I'm gonna pass on your garbled syntax and chalk that up to the late hour and early drinks. I'll address a couple of the other points you attempted.

First, my alias. I'm sorry it causes you consternation. Get over it.

Next, you seem to try to claim that the testing cost is due to government negligence. I'll agree with you. Our government agencies have long become a behemoth that attempt all things and succeed at very few. I'm ready to clean that house, regardless of party affiliation.

Lastly, you demand sources, yet you include none, other than your own. I included sources.

Put on your mask, wash your filthy hands, and continue to hide in your basement. The number of your days is fixed. The best advice I have for you is to number them wisely.

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Trollfest '09

Trollfest '07 was such a success that Jackson Jambalaya will once again host Trollfest '09. Catch this great event which will leave NE Jackson & Fondren in flames. Othor Cain and his band, The Black Power Structure headline the night while Sonjay Poontang returns for an encore performance. Former Frank Melton bodyguard Marcus Wright makes his premier appearance at Trollfest singing "I'm a Sweet Transvestite" from "The Rocky Horror Picture Show." Kamikaze will sing his new hit, “How I sold out to da Man.” Robbie Bell again performs: “Mamas, don't let your babies grow up to be Bells” and “Any friend of Ed Peters is a friend of mine”. After the show, Ms. Bell will autograph copies of her mug shot photos. In a salute to “Dancing with the Stars”, Ms. Bell and Hinds County District Attorney Robert Smith will dance the Wango Tango.

Wrestling returns, except this time it will be a Battle Royal with Othor Cain, Ben Allen, Kim Wade, Haley Fisackerly, Alan Lange, and “Big Cat” Donna Ladd all in the ring at the same time. The Battle Royal will be in a steel cage, no time limit, no referee, and the losers must leave town. Marshand Crisler will be the honorary referee (as it gives him a title without actually having to do anything).

Meet KIM Waaaaaade at the Entergy Tent. For five pesos, Kim will sell you a chance to win a deed to a crack house on Ridgeway Street stuffed in the Howard Industries pinata. Don't worry if the pinata is beaten to shreds, as Mr. Wade has Jose, Emmanuel, and Carlos, all illegal immigrants, available as replacements for the it. Upon leaving the Entergy tent, fig leaves will be available in case Entergy literally takes everything you have as part of its Trollfest ticket price adjustment charge.

Donna Ladd of The Jackson Free Press will give several classes on learning how to write. Smearing, writing without factchecking, and reporting only one side of a story will be covered. A donation to pay their taxes will be accepted and she will be signing copies of their former federal tax liens. Ms. Ladd will give a dramatic reading of her two award-winning essays (They received The Jackson Free Press "Best Of" awards.) "Why everything is always about me" and "Why I cover murders better than anyone else in Jackson".

In the spirit of helping those who are less fortunate, Trollfest '09 adopts a cause for which a portion of the proceeds and donations will be donated: Keeping Frank Melton in his home. The “Keep Frank Melton From Being Homeless” booth will sell chances for five dollars to pin the tail on the jackass. John Reeves has graciously volunteered to be the jackass for this honorable excursion into saving Frank's ass. What's an ass between two friends after all? If Mr. Reeves is unable to um, perform, Speaker Billy McCoy has also volunteered as when the word “jackass” was mentioned he immediately ran as fast as he could to sign up.

In order to help clean up the legal profession, Adam Kilgore of the Mississippi Bar will be giving away free, round-trip plane tickets to the North Pole where they keep their bar complaint forms (which are NOT available online). If you don't want to go to the North Pole, you can enjoy Brant Brantley's (of the Mississippi Commission on Judicial Performance) free guided tours of the quicksand field over by High Street where all complaints against judges disappear. If for some reason you are unable to control yourself, never fear; Judge Houston Patton will operate his jail where no lawyers are needed or allowed as you just sit there for minutes... hours.... months...years until he decides he is tired of you sitting in his jail. Do not think Judge Patton is a bad judge however as he plans to serve free Mad Dog 20/20 to all inmates.

Trollfest '09 is a pet-friendly event as well. Feel free to bring your dog with you and do not worry if your pet gets hungry, as employees of the Jackson Zoo will be on hand to provide some of their animals as food when it gets to be feeding time for your little loved one.

Relax at the Fox News Tent. Since there are only three blonde reporters in Jackson (being blonde is a requirement for working at Fox News), Megan and Kathryn from WAPT and Wendy from WLBT will be on loan to Fox. To gain admittance to the VIP section, bring either your Republican Party ID card or a Rebel Flag. Bringing both and a torn-up Obama yard sign will entitle you to free drinks served by Megan, Wendy, and Kathryn. Get your tickets now. Since this is an event for trolls, no ID is required. Just bring the hate. Bring the family, Trollfest '09 is for EVERYONE!!!

This is definitely a Beaver production.

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Jackson Jambalaya is the home of Trollfest '07. Catch this great event which promises to leave NE Jackson & Fondren in flames. Sonjay Poontang and his band headline the night with a special steel cage, no time limit "loser must leave town" bout between Alan Lange and "Big Cat"Donna Ladd following afterwards. Kamikaze will perform his new song F*** Bush, he's still a _____. Did I mention there was no referee? Dr. Heddy Matthias and Lori Gregory will face off in the undercard dueling with dangling participles and other um, devices. Robbie Bell will perform Her two latest songs: My Best Friends are in the Media and Mama's, Don't Let Your Babies Grow up to be George Bell. Sid Salter of The Clarion-Ledger will host "Pin the Tail on the Trial Lawyer", sponsored by State Farm.

There will be a hugging booth where in exchange for your young son, Frank Melton will give you a loooong hug. Trollfest will have a dunking booth where Muhammed the terrorist will curse you to Allah as you try to hit a target that will drop him into a vat of pig grease. However, in the true spirit of Separate But Equal, Don Imus and someone from NE Jackson will also sit in the dunking booth for an equal amount of time. Tom Head will give a reading for two hours on why he can't figure out who the hell he is. Cliff Cargill will give lessons with his .80 caliber desert eagle, using Frank Melton photos as targets. Tackleberry will be on hand for an autograph session. KIM Waaaaaade will be passing out free titles and deeds to crackhouses formerly owned by The Wood Street Players.

If you get tired come relax at the Fox News Tent. To gain admittance to the VIP section, bring either your Republican Party ID card or a Rebel Flag. Bringing both will entitle you to free drinks.Get your tickets now. Since this is an event for trolls, no ID is required, just bring the hate. Bring the family, Trollfest '07 is for EVERYONE!!!

This is definitely a Beaver production.

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