Friday, March 17, 2017

"Poll" shows Lumumba lead

A "poll" conducted by longtime Democratic political operative Brad Chism shows Chokwe Antar Lumumba Jr. leading the Jackson Mayoral race. The "poll" states:


Ronnie Crudup, Tr.           9.3%
Robert Graham                 23.2%
John Horhn                       13.5%
Antar Lumumba               30.5%
Tony Yarber                       7.1%
Undecided                        16.5%



Kingfish note: Keep in mind this is a Brad Chism "poll".  Meaning he is probably has an agenda.  There are no crosstabs or other information that will allow one to seriously analyze this poll.   The undecided number of voters seems somewhat low but then again, most of these guys ran for Mayor in 2014 so they are not exactly unknown to the voters. 







66 comments:

Anonymous said...

If you liked Johnson and Yarber---you will love Graham.

Anonymous said...

No worries. According to his signs, if he's the mayor, we're ALL the mayor.

Anonymous said...

John Horhn seems to have the most sense, why is he doing so badly? Maybe I answered my own question.

Anonymous said...

I am voting for Graham.

Antar is in this for the short term. Book it!

Correction, If I May.. said...

This can't be! I saw a Horne sign in the hood just yesterday that promised he 'will make it happen'. You can't say that on a sign unless it's true!

Anonymous said...

Lumumba is the most intelligent of the field.

Anonymous said...

the poll really doesn't surprise me and MAY be an accurate reflection of sentiment. I was an early supporter of Yarber in last election---I am terribly disappointed but not surprised at his dismal performance and will NOT support him THIS time. I believe I was interviewed for this poll and could not respond with "none of the above" when asked who I would support in the "upcoming"!!!!!

Anonymous said...

At this point, I don't care who wins as long as it's not Yarber. Had high hopes for him, but he has been quite the disappointment. Needs to focus on his talents (preaching and skirt-chasing). Thanks for NOTHING TONY T

Anonymous said...

His campaign is run by a bunch of Farrakahn people from Chicago and Detroit..

Anonymous said...


WALLOW WALLOW WALLOW !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

An easy search of the last decade of JJ will demonstrate that Brad Chism is full of shit. 22/71 split? Chism HAS NO WAY OF KNOWING the 2013 primary ethnicity split. NONE. So the rest of his commentary is pure crap.

Anonymous said...

We don't need Lumumba, his d's signed that 90 million dollar contract and put 8 Detroit contractors on the project. After he voted against it on council... wake up.

Anonymous said...

I called it a while ago and my gut is correct. Antar will take this for two reasons: sympathy for his father and a backlash against Trump's presidential victory.

Also, there's the very real element of people who are sympathetic to the whole black separatist nation of Kush crap that his father pushed.

Be prepared. Antar will take over and the city will be renamed Chokwe, Mississippi.

Anonymous said...

This poll is actually bad news for Antar Lumumba.

Anonymous said...

Polls show you can’t be Mayor if N. Korea destroys everything.

Anonymous said...

To the person who said John Horhn has the most sense, Where did you unearth this information. I will admit, he is very good at shaking down lobbyist, so if that is what you are looking for, go for him.

Anonymous said...

Brad Chism is not a pollster. He's known in Democratic Party circles nationwide for his 11th hour negative phone attacks on opposing candidates. Chism is a mercenary. This is misdirection.

Anonymous said...

What kind of a sample size is 528? Does that group of 528 serve as a good rep of Jackson? Or is it just 528 people overrepresented in one particular region? This is an awful study because we don't need the commentary as much as we do background on his assumptions of the numbers and figures he used! What a clown! Sad!

PittPanther said...

7.1% of people in Jackson either go to Yarber's church, are dependent on him for a job, or want to sleep with him.

Anonymous said...

Please vote for graham the legend so we can get rid of his ass at the county!

Anonymous said...

Antar would be a Jackson first mayor. The statehouse is skeptical of the city anyway. Would a mayor that pulls Jackson out of the mud put him on a statewide ballot?

Anonymous said...

Antar

Anonymous said...

You all better get out now and never look back.

Anonymous said...

If all of those 12,257 vote then Yarber will be in good shape PP.

Kingfish said...

Yeah, Chism's "polls" are long on headlines and short on raw data. He has done this before.

Anonymous said...

But who will White Liberals in Fondren vote for.

Anonymous said...

The Kush movement lives.

Anonymous said...

10:22 and 11:19 Remember Chism nailed the McDaniel v. Cochran race in primary and runoff in '14. And the Lumumba/Lee runoff in '13. Somebody find the cross tabs. His memo says there is weighting for demographics. (If) 500+ random sample, then decent margin of error.

Kingfish said...

I would put Antar in the lead.

Anonymous said...

@1:21 PM, BFD, Chism also said that Childers and Cochran were in a "dead heat" after Cochran won the runoff.

The memo says:

"We have weighted the results to reflect the 2013 Municipal Primary turnout demographics ..."

So, know-it-all, show us where ethnicity or any other voter identifying demographic is captured at the precinct voting booth.

Let us know when you find the data source.

Anonymous said...

What? How could Brad Chism have "nailed" the 2014 runoff when he had Chris McDaniel winning by +6 and then days later by +8?

Anonymous said...

And who even uses landlines, let alone answers them, anymore? That skews the study's sample towards a particular type of person and biases the study overall. Stone age study! Pathetic!

Experts Emerging From Woodwork.. said...

If I can read, first Kingfish says the man is not a pollster, is known for last minute bullshit and is unreliable. Then he posts this:

"Kingfish said...
I would put Antar in the lead."

Based on what? The temperature of cathead biscuits at Primos?

Anonymous said...

Really 9:43? Lumumba is the most intelligent of the bunch? I didn't catch any sarcasm there.

Lumumba has a BA from Tuskegee and JD from Texas Southern. John Horhn has a BA from Centre and spent time at Duke.

Centre is ranked the number 100 school in the country according to Forbes while Tuskegee is number 652. I sure hope I don't have to explain the difference between Duke and Texas Southern.

Anonymous said...

Well Black Jackson, why is the overweight old white well-known dirty trickster Brad Chism (who lives in Ridgeland's high dollar Dinsmor neighborhood) painting such a rosy picture for Antar Lumumba? Hmmmm.

Anonymous said...

How do you know Horhn graduated from Centre. I have caught him in some irregularities in some of his statements, etc. Also, "he spent some time at Duke". This could mean he went to a state of Mississippi paid for weekend seminar. By the way, I visited MIT and Harvard ON THE SAME DAY.

Anonymous said...

1:21 pm See the political party voter files and commercial voter files that all have age, race, gender and residency info. All of them show who voted in which election. Polling basics.

Anonymous said...

It should be noted that a current 1% STC member's business's partner (padre) is raising money by sending out personal letters asking for support for Horhn while he is slowing down current mayor. Political retribution? Perhaps. A recusal should be in order till after the election for him and others on commission with campaign conflicts. Full and complete disclosure should be required of the members…of any and all campaign support/ties of them and their business partners.

Anonymous said...

I don't put much credibility in Chism's 'poll', but IMHO his numbers probably approach reality today - and that is based solely on my gut. I have felt all along that AL would lead the first primary with +/- 25%. Thought Graham and Hohrn were running close for second place at mid to high teens. Would have put Crudup a little higher than this poll, and Yarbor last of the top five at 5 or 6%.

Chism's client could have saved a lot of money and just taken my gut feelings and gotten the same info - of course, mine are factored with no undecideds and closer to the May election date.

A poll sample of 500 plus is a decent sized sample; haven't read the details of this package but if it was based on a landline sample I wouldn't give it the time of day. Also if it didn't include a live questioner but used the cheap touchtone process it was a waste of paper to print it out.

End question - who makes second place for the runoff with Lumumba. Whoever that is will be the next Mayor.

Anonymous said...

4:30 - is that individual that you refer to a business partner of the candidate, Mayor Yarber? He is a member of the commission and two of his staff members are also commissioners. Don't know if that counts as a business partner, but surely their being involved in the mayors race should require that they recuse themselves.

Frankly it is true that your boss, the Mayor, is losing bad in thisn election. But that doesn't mean that a member of the commission should have to recuse themselves from this public service position and especially because a commissioner's business partner being involved in politics certainly would not come close to having any kind of conflict. Seems to me that most anybody that is publicly involved in local politics is a good thing, not something to try to demean. And not supporting the body-painted fundraiser's candidate is a good thing, not bad.

Anonymous said...

Since when does serving on a nonpaying commission mean that a citizen can't be involved in politics? Not just a citizen's business partner, but the individual himself is totally free. And while I don't think there is any attempt to slow down Yarbor, any effort that keeps him from throwing away our tax dollars to feather his or his supporters nest is a good thing, not a bad one. Except, of course, if 4:30 happens to be one of those who's nest is getting feathered.

$JustSaying said...

I work in all areas of Jackson and talk to many people, I agree with the ranking and most of his conclusions. I would like to see a list of financial backers for all candidates, I do know Ditto & the State Street group are backing Horhn & Antar is backed by the Soros & Obama groups DFA & Action for America. Graham is backed by a lot of the contractors. Please see if there is a full list of contributors and post the information. I know Graham has been involved in questionable bids & contracts his whole time in public life.

Anonymous said...

Will Graham be required to take a day of personal leave to conduct reimbursed police training once he's the mayor? And will that income count toward PERS?

Anonymous said...

John horhn is supported by all of Tony t. Yarber former campaign crews..
Socrates
CREDELL
BANKS KANE DOTTO..


Anonymous said...

So Ditto and State Street are supporting Horhn and he continues to be on the commission? That makes a lot of sense. He has every right to exercise his right to support the candidate of his choice or his dad's & business owner …but he should do so after he recuses himself or resigns from the commission. Otherwise it's a major conflict of interest. Period.

$JustSaying said...

One big question is who is Bennie Thompson backing out of the gate?

Anonymous said...

Yarber is nothing but a conflict of interest. Period!! Done!! He's over. What a waste of time he is

Anonymous said...

He maybe over. But he is still our mayor and he deserves the right to lead until he is voted out of office. 1% STC members should be impartial withouf alternative agendas for mayoral candidates of their choice. If they do, they should recuse or abstain if they can't be fair and impartial and do what's in the city's best interest regardless of their endorsement/support of their selected
mayoral candidate.

Anonymous said...

Smartest thing Antar has been told to do-- take his name off his signage. They read 'Chokwe A. Lumumumba'. The voters think ole Chokwe has been on safari and is back.

Anonymous said...

Bennie Thompson is said to be supporting John horhn for mayor. John dad Charlie horhn and Bennie are best friends..

Anonymous said...

STC members owe their allegiance to Jackson not some damn Mayor. Yarber has had years now to come up with an agreed upon Master Plan and can't get it done. So take the recusal garbage back to your dump.

Jess Wondrin said...

If Antar's name doesn't appear on his signs, how do we know they're his?

Pete Perry said...

As a citizen of Jackson I maintain my right to support any candidate or platform of my choice. As a volunteer member of the 1% STC, my job is to do what I think is in the best interest of Jackson. The Commission is not that of this, or any, administration. The City does have three appointees on it, which were named by Yarber. (he named himself, the interim director of Public Works, and one of the city legal staff.) I am sure that those three all support the Mayor's agenda, but the Mayor's agenda is not automatically the position of the Commission.

For whoever the person is (Yarber or someone on his staff) that think there is a conflict because someone supports someone other than Yarber for Mayor while serving on this commission, get over it. Your argument doesn't make any sense, and certainly doesn't have any foundation or support for it in any law or even in good governing policy.

The Commission will still exist at the end of this year - and whether Yarber is or is not Mayor at that time is yet to be determined. I look forward to working with whoever is the Mayor, and the members of the Council, as we hopefully can work together to move Jackson forward, to improve its infrastructure, and to do so in an economical and reasonable manner, without wasting our limited funds on social programs under cover of infrastructure improvements.

Anonymous said...

As some one who knows Cong. Thmpson very well, let me tell you the congressman is not and will not support John Horhn. The congressman's friendship with Charlie Horhn does not carry over to his son John. Look at John's supporters. You should know Cong. Thompson would never be associated with them.

$JustSaying said...

I tend to agree with the last post about Bennie Thompson not supporting John, it is rumored he is hedging his best between Antar & Graham as he is only interested in who will throw money to his chosen contractors. Remember what President Harry Truman said, the only way a man becomes rich in public office is by being a crook. This undoubtedly applies to Bennie Thompson.

Bennie's Yellow Barber-Shop Shirt Collection.. said...

6:36 - You may be right. I'm left wondering, though, if you actually DO KNOW who Thompson associates with. Perhaps a bunch of tax-cheats? The high rollers who made him a millionaire over twenty years ago? Union organizers? Peanut Oil salesmen who can contribute their product to his many fish frys? White-Hate groups? Where's your list since you seem so well informed?

Secondarily, however, who gives a shit and why does it even matter?

Anonymous said...

If you listen to John horhn speeches he bring up Bennie Thompson name every single time. The reason he supports John, he can control him, John will do anything for a donation or a financial contribution, and Bennie kno ws how to play.. listen to horhn say it on most all his interviees... He have a personal relationship with congressman Thompson secret going to work together...

Anonymous said...

Why are we continuing to discuss the brand name stamped on the Titanic's furniture? As we have learned over the past twenty five or so years, it doesn't make a dime's worth of difference who is running the City Employment Office or managing its bucket of parade-beads or distributing the bounty of Jackson's jar of cookies. Nothing will change for the better. It hasn't for decades so why would it now? The only difference, for those in the crowd is...how can I get me some?

Anonymous said...

I am shocked that 528 people in jackson have a home phone!!!

Anonymous said...

Pete Perry: To what are you referring when you made this remark: "...without wasting our limited funds on social programs under cover of infrastructure improvements"? Specifically I'm asking you what 'social programs' are the recipient of funds that might be used for infrastructure.

I'd like to be able to fully understand your posts which is why I ask.

Anonymous said...

Anyone else spot the mayor wearing earphones while walking in the parade? How weird is that?

Anonymous said...

Like him or not, Chism's polls are historically pretty accurate. The real contest here is between Graham and Horne, since one of them will be in the runoff against Antar. Graham can beat Antar but Horne probably can't. For whatever reason, black voters just don't support him outside of his senate district. That means a vote for Horne is basically a vote for Antar. If you don't want Antar, you have to support Graham.

What a lousy choice.

Anonymous said...

Chism's polls are historically pretty accurate.

Nope. Not historically or other.

Anonymous said...

3:54pm

I will not pretend to amswer for Mr. Perry, but will say that my interpretation is not that "social programs" will be recipients, but that the idea of spending the money on a "pet" project, that is not necessary and benefits , and in spite of the conditions of the many streets and water/sewer lines, is a program of social engineering.

Fix what's currently broken before spending the money in far away corners of the city dreams that benefit the Madison county

Anonymous said...

Good gracious. Of course he is. Of course. SMH....

Pete Perry said...

3:54 p.m. I will be more than happy to list you several concepts that I am referring to if you will come out from under your Anonymous post. You can do that either by a direct comment here, or by a personal message to me. But I do not intend to get into a commentary on the subject here with a troll for the administration which there are obviously a few posting their comments in this thread.

Make you this deal - let me know who I am dealing with and I will be glad top provide a minimum of six specific areas that I am including in my comments. And while I do agree with 8:24 a.m.'s comments above about 'pet projects' that is not what I had in mind.

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