Thursday, May 21, 2009

Factchecking.Its.not.that.hard.

Unless you work at the Jackson Free Press and try to do math:
"To my knowledge, although most of the money reported by the Better Jackson PAC came from Two Lakes people, they did not do mailers about the development project. They used the money to run ads about crime, trying to scare people into voting for Crisler -- presumably so the Two Lakes project would get undying support.
And they didn't use the actual FBI crime stats, which show how much crime dropped during Johnson's tenure; they used Wilson's favorite old Morgan Quitno rankings, which mean nothing when actually analyzed.
I shudder to think about this kind of sleight-of-hand trickery.posted by ladd on 05/21/09 at 12:25 PM"

Well, since she has a copy of the campaign finance report, she knows the PAC raised $22,250. McGowan gave $6,000.

27%. I guess progressive math means that is a majority.

18 comments:

Wilson H. Carroll said...

Poor Donna absolutely cannot get her facts straight. She shudders to think that we would rely on the Morgan Quitno rankings, instead of the actual FBI crime reports. She knows good and well that Morgan Quitno derives all of its rankings directly from the FBI crime reports. The methodology is explained in excrutiating detail here: http://os.cqpress.com/citycrime/Methodology.pdf

And no, it has never been discredited and remains the most commonly cited indicia of crime rankings in the United States.

I can tell you from past experience, it doesn't take much to cause Donna to shudder.

Kingfish said...

Actually, it has taken some heat from the conference of mayors.

David Sanders said...

If any of the donors to Better Jackson PAC other than McGowan are "Two Lakes people," (whatever that means. Sounds like a variation of Village People.), I am unaware of it. She also seems to have mixed McGowan up with Pruet Oil, with which he has no connection. Oh well, just details.

Schizo said...

It's obvious to any math idiot that the words called for were "Although the single largest contribution came from John McGowan, known as the developer of the Two Lakes project, etc. etc.".

Doesn't she preview before she hits publish? Geez.

HeavyB said...

You mean heat like this?...

In October 2007 The American Society of Criminology, The U.S. Conference of Mayors, and The Federal Bureau of Investigation requested that the publisher reconsider the promotion of the book — specifically, "their inaccurate and inflammatory press release labeling cities as 'safest' and 'most dangerous'" — because the rankings are "baseless and damaging."

Why would someone rely on data that the FBI calls baseless and damaging? Instead of FBI crime figures. Hmmmmm.

Anonymous said...

Kingfish, can you help us out and give the pros and cons of two lakes? I am a little confused about all of this. What does McGowan want to do with it and what does the JFP want to do with it? I only get my info from you!!

Kingfish said...

1. I simply put the info up there as given to me by Better Jackson PAC. It was put up here before any other website or media publication. I voted for Johnson so I don't think I can be accused of being pro-Crisler here.

2. As for sneaking in their paperwork right before closing as others have accused the PAC of doing, I was given the fax confirmation from 4/28/09 and its clear there is an error there. I was told Nice. My cavalier has decided to plop himself down on my chest while I write this. it was a mistake. Ok, might be. Problem is when you make mistakes like this and they are caught right before elections, they leave you open to charges that have been leveled against the PAC.

3. As for two lakes, I don't debate it because I don't know enough about it and I find on that project when you engage in debat on it, you run into more than a few people who are quite well versed on the subject. Before I get into it, I'm going to do my homework first. Having said that, I would like to see Jackson have a downtown that is San Antonio-like if possible. I just don't know enough about the nuts and bolts of this proposed project to discuss it.

Wilson H. Carroll said...

HeavyB, please go to the link I provided and read how the analysis works. It doesn't "rely on data the FBI calls baseless . . . instead of FBI crime figures." It is based entirely on the FBI crime figures (known as Uniform Crime Reports, or "UCR"). Read the methodology. Donna and her buddies are constantly peddling the trope that this analysis uses some figures other than the FBI data, and there is simply no basis for that.

Starting with the FBI / UCR data, Morgan Quitno (it's actually a different company now) then performs a series of fairly straightforward calculations to derive a single number which reflects a given city's deviation from the norm or national average. The lower the number, the better the city performed that year compared to the national average, and the higher the number the worse it performed. (Note - I may have that backwards, but you get the idea.) Note that the norm gets re-calibrated annually, as new data is received, so the rankings always depict how well (or how poorly) a city has performed compared to other cities in the same time frame.

There are six different categories of crime included in the rankings (murder, rape, burglary, larceny/theft, etc.). One arguably "subjective" decision is the choice to apply equal weight to each of these six categories when the numbers are crunched. One person might think murder should have a much higher impact on the final number than auto theft, for example. I don't find MQ's approach to be all that flawed, though, as long as the data is crunched exactly the same way for every city, which it is.

Obviously, it's a shorthand method of looking at a complex problem, and it invariably pisses off the cities and metropolitan areas which get the worst scores. The FBI has no interest in pissing off elected officials, so it doesn't surprise me at all that they disclaim the MQ rankings. That in no way leads to the conclusion that the scores are "baseless." Again, anyone reading the methodology can clearly see they aren't "baseless." Damaging? Yeah, possibly, but then sometimes the truth hurts. Too damn bad.

The bigger problem is that clever mayors can game the system, once they understand how it works. When Jackson's MQ rankings were going down the tank Harvey blew off a question about crime stats by saying, "those number have never been reported correctly." Get that? Harvey had already figured out there was a right way, and another way, to "report" the data. It was shortly after that that we started seeing dramatic improvement in the stats. And if you lived in Jackson at the time you were surrounded by anecdotal evidence suggesting the stats had become nothing but lies. Crime was everywhere but none of it seemed to be reflected in Harvey's numbers. And when people complained about the discrepancy Harvey sent his main moron, Chief Moore, out to tell us it was all just our perception.

Is the Morgan Quitno approach perfect? Of course not - anyone can provide different weights to different crime categories, for example, and possible generate different results. But as far as I know no one has come up with a better ranking system. If I'm wrong on that and you know of a better system, I'd be interested in hearing about it.

HeavyB said...

I could have saved you a lot of typing if I had explained I was already familiar with how the rankings are calculated. But I appreciate your take on them.

The baseless charge arises not from the raw data but from using shorthand methodology to assess an extremely complex situation and then jump to the precise and sensational conclusion of "Most Dangerous" or "Safest".

As far as damaging, How damaging would it be for someone to print baseless rankings based on a few facts about someone's character, their business or their city? And if it has the ability to be damaging shouldn't it at least have gone through the due diligence of a rigorous study and not just some shorthand version for public consumption.

Do I know of a better method? Well, I'm not an expert or anything like the folks at the American Society of Criminology or the FBI. But, maybe there is a reason that there are no other outlets offering a simplistic and sensational pseudo-science ranking system.

Anonymous said...

Be careful Wilson. You are so worked up you are on the verge of a 'near stroke'.

Wilson H. Carroll said...

HeavyB, businesses get ranked all the time. Check out Morningstar Ratings. We rank our kids everyday using a whole variety of tests, and then at the end of the school year we recognize the best ones.

Again, one can certainly question certain aspects of the methodology, and one can even question the wisdom or efficacy of trying to rank cities at all, but to say MQ's approach is "baseless" or "discredited" is just wishful thinking.

Kingfish said...

Nice debate you guys have going here. Friendly, respectful, and making your points.

I don't pay attention to the rankings myself. I remember when I was a kid back in the 70's I could walk down Terry Road by JSU by myself to DQ or Mr. Quick and not worry about anything. Until it returns to that level of safety, the crime is too high. Crime may have gone down under Harvey but if you have five feet of water in your house but it used to be 8 feet, you are still flooded.

Unfortunately under the Melton-Anderson-Mac regimes, crime went back up again.

Wilson H. Carroll said...

Not to worry. It'll drop like a rock once Harvey gets sworn in. Statistically speaking, that is.

Here's the job interview for the new JPD Chief:

Harvey: Hi. Do you know how to make my crime stats look good?

Mr. X: Uh, sure.

Harvey: Great. You're hired.

HeavyB said...

Maybe instead of Mr. X, Mr. T would be better.

I pity the fool who commits crimes in Jackson with Mr. T as police chief.

A. Boyd Campbell, II said...

I suspect the Clinton era COPS money had a lot to do with the dip in crime during the first Harvey administration. After that funding ran out, the rates started climbing again.

Violent crime looks like an issue of race but it's really an issue of class. Violent crime among middle class black people happens at about the same rate as violent crime among middle class white people.

Anonymous said...

ABC, can you show me a link that supports that claim? I don't think that's correct.

A. Boyd Campbell, II said...

about the COPS money? there were several articles about it at the time, I'll see if I can't find a reference online. There was also a couple of interviews with James Carville about how the program lowered crime statistics all over the country.

It was a great program, but there's an inherent problem with taking federal money for recurring municipal needs because when regimes change in Washington, the funding can go away like it did with COPS.

A. Boyd Campbell, II said...

actually since the democrats are pushing for a new COPS program, there's lots about it online.

here's what Nancy Pelosi says about the current bill and the old bill

http://www.speaker.gov/newsroom/legislation?id=0300

The original program ran from just before Johnson was elected mayor for the first time until just before the end of his second term.


Recent Comments

Search Jackson Jambalaya

Subscribe to JJ's Youtube channel

Archives

Trollfest '09

Trollfest '07 was such a success that Jackson Jambalaya will once again host Trollfest '09. Catch this great event which will leave NE Jackson & Fondren in flames. Othor Cain and his band, The Black Power Structure headline the night while Sonjay Poontang returns for an encore performance. Former Frank Melton bodyguard Marcus Wright makes his premier appearance at Trollfest singing "I'm a Sweet Transvestite" from "The Rocky Horror Picture Show." Kamikaze will sing his new hit, “How I sold out to da Man.” Robbie Bell again performs: “Mamas, don't let your babies grow up to be Bells” and “Any friend of Ed Peters is a friend of mine”. After the show, Ms. Bell will autograph copies of her mug shot photos. In a salute to “Dancing with the Stars”, Ms. Bell and Hinds County District Attorney Robert Smith will dance the Wango Tango.

Wrestling returns, except this time it will be a Battle Royal with Othor Cain, Ben Allen, Kim Wade, Haley Fisackerly, Alan Lange, and “Big Cat” Donna Ladd all in the ring at the same time. The Battle Royal will be in a steel cage, no time limit, no referee, and the losers must leave town. Marshand Crisler will be the honorary referee (as it gives him a title without actually having to do anything).


Meet KIM Waaaaaade at the Entergy Tent. For five pesos, Kim will sell you a chance to win a deed to a crack house on Ridgeway Street stuffed in the Howard Industries pinata. Don't worry if the pinata is beaten to shreds, as Mr. Wade has Jose, Emmanuel, and Carlos, all illegal immigrants, available as replacements for the it. Upon leaving the Entergy tent, fig leaves will be available in case Entergy literally takes everything you have as part of its Trollfest ticket price adjustment charge.

Donna Ladd of The Jackson Free Press will give several classes on learning how to write. Smearing, writing without factchecking, and reporting only one side of a story will be covered. A donation to pay their taxes will be accepted and she will be signing copies of their former federal tax liens. Ms. Ladd will give a dramatic reading of her two award-winning essays (They received The Jackson Free Press "Best Of" awards.) "Why everything is always about me" and "Why I cover murders better than anyone else in Jackson".

In the spirit of helping those who are less fortunate, Trollfest '09 adopts a cause for which a portion of the proceeds and donations will be donated: Keeping Frank Melton in his home. The “Keep Frank Melton From Being Homeless” booth will sell chances for five dollars to pin the tail on the jackass. John Reeves has graciously volunteered to be the jackass for this honorable excursion into saving Frank's ass. What's an ass between two friends after all? If Mr. Reeves is unable to um, perform, Speaker Billy McCoy has also volunteered as when the word “jackass” was mentioned he immediately ran as fast as he could to sign up.


In order to help clean up the legal profession, Adam Kilgore of the Mississippi Bar will be giving away free, round-trip plane tickets to the North Pole where they keep their bar complaint forms (which are NOT available online). If you don't want to go to the North Pole, you can enjoy Brant Brantley's (of the Mississippi Commission on Judicial Performance) free guided tours of the quicksand field over by High Street where all complaints against judges disappear. If for some reason you are unable to control yourself, never fear; Judge Houston Patton will operate his jail where no lawyers are needed or allowed as you just sit there for minutes... hours.... months...years until he decides he is tired of you sitting in his jail. Do not think Judge Patton is a bad judge however as he plans to serve free Mad Dog 20/20 to all inmates.

Trollfest '09 is a pet-friendly event as well. Feel free to bring your dog with you and do not worry if your pet gets hungry, as employees of the Jackson Zoo will be on hand to provide some of their animals as food when it gets to be feeding time for your little loved one.

Relax at the Fox News Tent. Since there are only three blonde reporters in Jackson (being blonde is a requirement for working at Fox News), Megan and Kathryn from WAPT and Wendy from WLBT will be on loan to Fox. To gain admittance to the VIP section, bring either your Republican Party ID card or a Rebel Flag. Bringing both and a torn-up Obama yard sign will entitle you to free drinks served by Megan, Wendy, and Kathryn. Get your tickets now. Since this is an event for trolls, no ID is required. Just bring the hate. Bring the family, Trollfest '09 is for EVERYONE!!!

This is definitely a Beaver production.


Note: Security provided by INS.

Trollfest '07

Jackson Jambalaya is the home of Trollfest '07. Catch this great event which promises to leave NE Jackson & Fondren in flames. Sonjay Poontang and his band headline the night with a special steel cage, no time limit "loser must leave town" bout between Alan Lange and "Big Cat"Donna Ladd following afterwards. Kamikaze will perform his new song F*** Bush, he's still a _____. Did I mention there was no referee? Dr. Heddy Matthias and Lori Gregory will face off in the undercard dueling with dangling participles and other um, devices. Robbie Bell will perform Her two latest songs: My Best Friends are in the Media and Mama's, Don't Let Your Babies Grow up to be George Bell. Sid Salter of The Clarion-Ledger will host "Pin the Tail on the Trial Lawyer", sponsored by State Farm.

There will be a hugging booth where in exchange for your young son, Frank Melton will give you a loooong hug. Trollfest will have a dunking booth where Muhammed the terrorist will curse you to Allah as you try to hit a target that will drop him into a vat of pig grease. However, in the true spirit of Separate But Equal, Don Imus and someone from NE Jackson will also sit in the dunking booth for an equal amount of time. Tom Head will give a reading for two hours on why he can't figure out who the hell he is. Cliff Cargill will give lessons with his .80 caliber desert eagle, using Frank Melton photos as targets. Tackleberry will be on hand for an autograph session. KIM Waaaaaade will be passing out free titles and deeds to crackhouses formerly owned by The Wood Street Players.

If you get tired come relax at the Fox News Tent. To gain admittance to the VIP section, bring either your Republican Party ID card or a Rebel Flag. Bringing both will entitle you to free drinks.Get your tickets now. Since this is an event for trolls, no ID is required, just bring the hate. Bring the family, Trollfest '07 is for EVERYONE!!!

This is definitely a Beaver production.

Note: Security provided by INS
.