Thursday, January 10, 2008

Newt on primaries and some personal ramblings

Newt wrote a column that although published today, was written before the New Hampshire primary although most of the salient points are still valid:

"Republicans had better learn that change is going to beat "more of the same" decisively....
Americans are taking seriously the opportunity to express their opinion and to change their government. In Iowa, the Democrats more than doubled their turnout from 2004 and the Republicans had a 40% increase over their last contested caucus in 2000....
So here are the bullet points for going forward:
Message beats money.
Enthusiasm beats paid staff.
Hope beats negativity.
People are smarter than the consultants.
If Republicans don't learn these lessons, they will be in for some very difficult elections

This is probably the most wide open Presidential race I have ever seen. If there was one thing New Hampshire proved the other night it is that the media once again got it wrong. Before the primary the media reported Obama was going to win by double-digit margins, could Hillary keep going after losing New Hampshire, how could the Republicans beat Obama, etc. Then reality hit and Hillary actually won the primary, bringing to mind past blown calls by the media.

In 1994 the media completely missed the Republican takeover of Congress. Bush beat Reagan in Iowa. McCain beat Bush the Younger in New Hampshire. Tsongas beat Clinton in New Hampshire. Buchanan beat Dole in New Hampshire. The point is that these primaries early on are not indicative of who will win the nomination. The caucuses are not elections but are instead negotiations. The primary in New Hampshire is an anomaly compared to most states. While Obama gets love from the press and adoring crowds, people forget that it takes more than colorful rallies to win elections. In the presidential primaries, it comes down to having a well-run organization in EVERY primary, not just looking good on tv or pumping up a crowd. Due to low voter turnout and state rules restricting voting to party members, turnout is the key and that usually comes down to who has the state organization locked up. The point here is do not count out Hillary. I would still bet money on her winning the nomination as she has this game figured out and even if she comes out poorly in the media, she will have the advantage in machine politics.

It is also ironic that Obama has the change mantra. Sound familiar? It should as in 92 that was Clinton's theme. Change, change, change. What kind of change would Obama bring? Keep in mind that for all of his talk of bipartisanship, he was the third most liberal member of the Senate. That will play well in the primaries, however, that will not be the case in the general election. Don't think he is invincible for one second as history has shown no politician is except for Reagan and FDR.

Keep also in mind that despite what the media says about Romney's chances of winning the nomination, he still has the most delegates. Only the dumbass media would ask if he is going to quit when he is actually winning. However, he faces a vigorous fight from Rudi, Huck, and McCain.

One final note. The Democrats are overconfident right now as they are overlooking one flaw in their candidates. The Democrats have focused completely on their personalities, chances of winning in November,and other more personal criteria. These candidates do NOT differ much on the issues. Health care, foreign policy, taxes, immigration, spending. What substantive difference is there between Edwards, Obama, and Hillary? Meanwhile on the Republican side there is a diversity of opinion on issues. McCain has one position on immigration and taxes different from the others. Rudi is very different from the others on social issues and gun rights. While the Democrats focus more on personality, the Republicans are focusing more on issues. The result is the nominee will have defended his positions against candidates who really do think differently than he does on the issues, not just worry about being caught in a flip-flop or some other meaningless debating trick. This point has been overlooked by the media as well and should not be discounted. It is important because when the winners face each other after the conventions, the issue-tested candidate is going to be much better prepared than the one who is not so tested. Whether the nominee is McCain, Rudi, Obama, or Huck, none of them will be intimidated by Obama or Hillary in a debate nor outclassed. One thing is for sure, this election is shaping up to be like no other in American history.

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Trollfest '09

Trollfest '07 was such a success that Jackson Jambalaya will once again host Trollfest '09. Catch this great event which will leave NE Jackson & Fondren in flames. Othor Cain and his band, The Black Power Structure headline the night while Sonjay Poontang returns for an encore performance. Former Frank Melton bodyguard Marcus Wright makes his premier appearance at Trollfest singing "I'm a Sweet Transvestite" from "The Rocky Horror Picture Show." Kamikaze will sing his new hit, “How I sold out to da Man.” Robbie Bell again performs: “Mamas, don't let your babies grow up to be Bells” and “Any friend of Ed Peters is a friend of mine”. After the show, Ms. Bell will autograph copies of her mug shot photos. In a salute to “Dancing with the Stars”, Ms. Bell and Hinds County District Attorney Robert Smith will dance the Wango Tango.

Wrestling returns, except this time it will be a Battle Royal with Othor Cain, Ben Allen, Kim Wade, Haley Fisackerly, Alan Lange, and “Big Cat” Donna Ladd all in the ring at the same time. The Battle Royal will be in a steel cage, no time limit, no referee, and the losers must leave town. Marshand Crisler will be the honorary referee (as it gives him a title without actually having to do anything).

Meet KIM Waaaaaade at the Entergy Tent. For five pesos, Kim will sell you a chance to win a deed to a crack house on Ridgeway Street stuffed in the Howard Industries pinata. Don't worry if the pinata is beaten to shreds, as Mr. Wade has Jose, Emmanuel, and Carlos, all illegal immigrants, available as replacements for the it. Upon leaving the Entergy tent, fig leaves will be available in case Entergy literally takes everything you have as part of its Trollfest ticket price adjustment charge.

Donna Ladd of The Jackson Free Press will give several classes on learning how to write. Smearing, writing without factchecking, and reporting only one side of a story will be covered. A donation to pay their taxes will be accepted and she will be signing copies of their former federal tax liens. Ms. Ladd will give a dramatic reading of her two award-winning essays (They received The Jackson Free Press "Best Of" awards.) "Why everything is always about me" and "Why I cover murders better than anyone else in Jackson".

In the spirit of helping those who are less fortunate, Trollfest '09 adopts a cause for which a portion of the proceeds and donations will be donated: Keeping Frank Melton in his home. The “Keep Frank Melton From Being Homeless” booth will sell chances for five dollars to pin the tail on the jackass. John Reeves has graciously volunteered to be the jackass for this honorable excursion into saving Frank's ass. What's an ass between two friends after all? If Mr. Reeves is unable to um, perform, Speaker Billy McCoy has also volunteered as when the word “jackass” was mentioned he immediately ran as fast as he could to sign up.

In order to help clean up the legal profession, Adam Kilgore of the Mississippi Bar will be giving away free, round-trip plane tickets to the North Pole where they keep their bar complaint forms (which are NOT available online). If you don't want to go to the North Pole, you can enjoy Brant Brantley's (of the Mississippi Commission on Judicial Performance) free guided tours of the quicksand field over by High Street where all complaints against judges disappear. If for some reason you are unable to control yourself, never fear; Judge Houston Patton will operate his jail where no lawyers are needed or allowed as you just sit there for minutes... hours.... months...years until he decides he is tired of you sitting in his jail. Do not think Judge Patton is a bad judge however as he plans to serve free Mad Dog 20/20 to all inmates.

Trollfest '09 is a pet-friendly event as well. Feel free to bring your dog with you and do not worry if your pet gets hungry, as employees of the Jackson Zoo will be on hand to provide some of their animals as food when it gets to be feeding time for your little loved one.

Relax at the Fox News Tent. Since there are only three blonde reporters in Jackson (being blonde is a requirement for working at Fox News), Megan and Kathryn from WAPT and Wendy from WLBT will be on loan to Fox. To gain admittance to the VIP section, bring either your Republican Party ID card or a Rebel Flag. Bringing both and a torn-up Obama yard sign will entitle you to free drinks served by Megan, Wendy, and Kathryn. Get your tickets now. Since this is an event for trolls, no ID is required. Just bring the hate. Bring the family, Trollfest '09 is for EVERYONE!!!

This is definitely a Beaver production.

Note: Security provided by INS.

Trollfest '07

Jackson Jambalaya is the home of Trollfest '07. Catch this great event which promises to leave NE Jackson & Fondren in flames. Sonjay Poontang and his band headline the night with a special steel cage, no time limit "loser must leave town" bout between Alan Lange and "Big Cat"Donna Ladd following afterwards. Kamikaze will perform his new song F*** Bush, he's still a _____. Did I mention there was no referee? Dr. Heddy Matthias and Lori Gregory will face off in the undercard dueling with dangling participles and other um, devices. Robbie Bell will perform Her two latest songs: My Best Friends are in the Media and Mama's, Don't Let Your Babies Grow up to be George Bell. Sid Salter of The Clarion-Ledger will host "Pin the Tail on the Trial Lawyer", sponsored by State Farm.

There will be a hugging booth where in exchange for your young son, Frank Melton will give you a loooong hug. Trollfest will have a dunking booth where Muhammed the terrorist will curse you to Allah as you try to hit a target that will drop him into a vat of pig grease. However, in the true spirit of Separate But Equal, Don Imus and someone from NE Jackson will also sit in the dunking booth for an equal amount of time. Tom Head will give a reading for two hours on why he can't figure out who the hell he is. Cliff Cargill will give lessons with his .80 caliber desert eagle, using Frank Melton photos as targets. Tackleberry will be on hand for an autograph session. KIM Waaaaaade will be passing out free titles and deeds to crackhouses formerly owned by The Wood Street Players.

If you get tired come relax at the Fox News Tent. To gain admittance to the VIP section, bring either your Republican Party ID card or a Rebel Flag. Bringing both will entitle you to free drinks.Get your tickets now. Since this is an event for trolls, no ID is required, just bring the hate. Bring the family, Trollfest '07 is for EVERYONE!!!

This is definitely a Beaver production.

Note: Security provided by INS