Friday, July 2, 2021

Michael Barone: New York Primary Shows Split Between Democratic Constituencies

 New York City's notoriously incompetent election officials have not finished tabulating the votes in the June 22 Democratic primary, with its novel ranked choice voting system. But the first choices of voters -- minus some 124,000 absentees -- nevertheless reveal some important things about the differences between different segments of the Democratic coalition in America's largest city.

    These initial results were a clear repudiation of the term-limited left-wing Mayor Bill de Blasio. Coming in first was Brooklyn borough president and former New York Police Department cop Eric Adams with 31.7%, well ahead of top de Blasio aide Maya Wiley, with 22.2%. Third was Kathryn Garcia, de Blasio's technocratic sanitation commissioner, with 19.5%. Adams decried and Wiley defended de Blasio's de-policing policies, while Garcia gingerly opposed "defunding" the police. So did 2020 presidential candidate Andrew Yang, who finished fourth with less than 12%.

    Yang did carry seven of the city's 63 assembly districts with 27 to 47% of the votes -- all with many Asian (mostly Chinese) and Orthodox Jewish voters. As The New York Times' "most detailed" map of the results shows, he had negligible first-choice support elsewhere.

    Both groups had concrete gripes with de Blasio. The Chinese hated his proposal to get rid of competitive exams for entry into elite high schools like Stuyvesant and Bronx Science -- their kids' avenue to upward mobility -- and the Orthodox resented his obvious prejudice against them.


     Affluent gentry liberals, who jostle for places in private schools and in whose doorman-building neighborhoods violent crime is still rare, had more abstract concerns. They're wary about the violent crime upsurge elsewhere in the city but, just as they like being masked even after being vaccinated, don't like to be noisy about it.

    Their first-choice candidate, endorsed by The New York Times, was Kathryn Garcia, a native of Brooklyn's affluent Park Slope and an experienced administrator who quietly opposed the police. She carried Manhattan from Tribeca to Morningside Heights, plus the Brooklyn Heights-Prospect Park district in Brooklyn, Forest Hills in Queens and far-distant southern Staten Island.

    She won about 40% of first-choice votes in the affluent areas -- and less than 10% in most others. Second- and third-choice votes may give her victory, but that won't be known for weeks.

    The candidate closest to de Blasio was his one-time counsel and Civilian Complaint Review Board chairman Maya Wiley. A supporter of defunding the police, she was endorsed by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and by former presidential candidates Elizabeth Warren and Julian Castro.

    But despite her leftish credentials, Wiley won only 22% of first-choice votes. She carried no assembly districts in Manhattan or the Bronx and none with large Black percentages.

    She did carry five assembly districts in Queens and five in Brooklyn, all in various stages of gentrification. They're connected to Manhattan by the No. 7, L and other subway trains, and they're increasingly populated by high-education, low-income young people hoping to make it in the big city.

    This is probably the nation's largest hipster constituency outside of university towns, and one whose concerns are loudly echoed in The New York Times' newsroom and by public employee union organizers. But their support for de-policing and socialism, not widely shared elsewhere, bespeaks an adolescent unconcern with practical consequences.

    So how did Eric Adams, former cop and outspoken opponent of defunding the police, finish number one in first-choice votes? He was shunned by affluent voters in Manhattan and by young hipsters in Brooklyn and Queens, and his support from low-education white ethnics didn't matter much, because NYC has few such neighborhoods any more.
    His secret is that he ran way ahead, with 45 to 75% of first-choice votes in a multi-candidate field, in heavily Black and Latino neighborhoods in the Bronx, Brooklyn and Queens.

    There the cry to defund the police is not an abstract matter, as it is still to affluent Manhattanites, or an adolescent rallying cry, as it is to the cash-strapped hipsters in gentrifying Queens and Brooklyn neighborhoods just across the East River from Manhattan.

    Black and Latino homeowners with families and jobs know their neighborhoods can be destroyed and their lives ended by violent criminals. They want more, rather than less, policing in their neighborhoods. "White liberals are more left-wing than Black and Hispanic Democrats on pretty much every issue," Democratic pollster Davis Shor argues in New York Magazine, "even on racial issues or various measures of 'racial resentment.'"

    Whoever New York's clownish Board of Elections finally determines is the winner, the split among Democrats is clear. Left-wing policies may be supported by hipster whites with adolescent enthusiasm, but gentry liberals increasingly have abstract questions about them, and they are rejected roundly by people of color -- Blacks, Latinos, Chinese -- out of concrete concerns.

    Michael Barone is a senior political analyst for the Washington Examiner, resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and longtime co-author of The Almanac of American Politics.

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18 comments:

Anonymous said...

Why do you care about New York?

Why must you continuously point out division?

Are you so lonely that you sit around and masturbate to other peoples problems?

Are there no men in your life?

Do you have someone you can confide in?

If you feel suicidal please call for help.

Krusatyr said...

@4:16 PM:

Referenced comment demonstrates myopic parochialism that ignores the destructive national influence of Schumer, Cuomo, AOC, deBlasio, investment bankers and other NY (as well as CA) political players, who can spread their well funded poison polity to damage smaller, more humble locales such as MS and the families there who are striving to be brave, free and successful.

Anonymous said...

They are Democrats. There is not a single thing "democratic" about them. They will stuff any ballot and count them secretly behind locked and doors. They are the Party of Democrats. The Democrat Party

Anonymous said...

4:16 seems to be suffering from what the mental health experts refer to as "projection".




Anonymous said...

Sounds like Canton. The Republicans need to dump Trump and get their collective sh@t together while there still time for common sense to take back over.

Calm Down said...

@5:15 pm

Well stated.

Anonymous said...

Who the eff here cares about NY politics?

Sigmund Freud said...

Oh, they are suffering, alright. I have the feeling 4:16 is in full support of the idiocy that is New York. When articles, such as this one, point out that in spite of the liberals having a choke hold on New York, the city, isn't remotely close to being a utopia. As this reality sinks in, they become acutely aware of the failure that liberalism is. Faced with the reality of this, failure, they lash out at the messenger, placing blame on the messenger instead of accepting the reality. This causes further disconnect from reality. A vicious circle that, it seems, few can recover from. Liberalism truly is a mental disorder.

Anonymous said...

Sorry boys there isn’t a thing in this world more disfuntional as the GQP. New York will have a democratic mayor and DA which is the real problem for them. I want see them run while the insurrection trails are going on.

Anonymous said...

Sorry...I just got in and turned on the laptop and thought this was Jambalaya.

Anonymous said...

Good Lord 7:03pm.....take some writing/spelling/grammar lessons or put down the booze when posting.

Anonymous said...

Just remember that it was the Democrat Party that took away from you, the Jackson that was safe to walk downtown at night. It was the Democrat Party that turned Detroit, St. Louis, Baltimore, LA, etc into third world shitholes. It is the Democrats who always have armed guards and walls around their homes, but want to disarm you and live in borderless chaos.

Never forget what they took from you.

Anonymous said...

6:43 I wasn’t born dumb, I was schooled in Mississippi public schools.

Anonymous said...

The people who are disgruntled with KF in this thread are loser Dems who are embarrassed by their comrades (and their policies') failures. Got to blame on somebody, today's bad guy is KF.

Anonymous said...

Barone:
Please try not to inflate a State problem into a National problem.

It's indicative of nothing in other States.

States get to write their own election laws and decide the rules for the entire State that can be accepted or not.

I understand that what was the GOP is now the Trump party, but the Democrats still allow for conservatives, moderates and yes, liberals to debate policy and run for office and disagree with their party leaders.

It's the notion that no human has all the answers to everything all the time. It's accepting that you can't know what you don't know but that someone else might know.

You learned that, I'm sure. You are getting very forgetful.


Anonymous said...

@8:44 has started his/her/its July 4th partying early.

Anonymous said...

@12:35 - do you realize this story was written by Michael Barone of the Washington examiner? Where exactly do you think the Mississippi school system failed you or is this your fully developed mental potential on display?

Anonymous said...

The Democrats would never organize voter fraud would they? Of course not! That's what CNN and facebook tell me!


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If you get tired come relax at the Fox News Tent. To gain admittance to the VIP section, bring either your Republican Party ID card or a Rebel Flag. Bringing both will entitle you to free drinks.Get your tickets now. Since this is an event for trolls, no ID is required, just bring the hate. Bring the family, Trollfest '07 is for EVERYONE!!!

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