Months ago in a hemisphere far, far away …
It is a period of great conflicts between old empires … War fogs the Strait of Hormuz … Drones swarm Ukraine - Russian battlefields … Long-range drones destroy oil refineries hundreds of miles behind Russian lines … Kinetic combat across the planet is a key feature of 2026. The action has centered around energy and some of the world’s great oil and gas fields. The zig zagging price of crude oil is a constant headline, a reminder of the central role that fossil fuels still play in AI’s 21st century economy. Upcoming mid-term elections also matter. Since the Strait of Hormuz was attacked on 28 February crude oil has traded between $68 and $113 and is now $93, 27% higher than pre-war prices. Brent and WTI crude prices reflect the ‘upstream’ part of the global energy complex where the crude is drilled from the ground. But you can’t put crude in your car, ship or airplane. Crude requires refining which is the ‘downstream’ part of the energy complex. It gets less headlines but its role is just as important. Refineries use heat, pressure and chemistry to crack the hydrocarbon molecules and separate them into the numerous fuels and other by-products that enable and power the world economy. It is an expensive, dirty and messy process that requires massive industrial scale to be economically viable. The cost per barrel for the process is called the ‘crack spread’ and that has recently exploded to all-time highs, especially for diesel where the crack spread jumped to $101 up 400% year to date. Why?Blame Ukrainian engineers, the world’s leaders in drone technology. On June 25th Ukraine launched a devastating 40 day drone blitz of 100 sorties against strategic Russian targets. Russia’s refineries were high on the list and they got hit hard, including the massive Omsk refinery complex in Siberia. The 40 days of attacks devastated a broad list of military and logistical targets in the Russian heartland from airbases and ships to Russia’s eleven largest refineries. 13 days in, on July 8th Russia announced a ban on any export of diesel, one of their major exports. After 40 days of strikes 40% of Russia’s refining capacity is non-functioning. Ukraine’s 40 day drone blitz was a game changer and its implications are important and ominous on several levels. The world now confronts severe chokepoints in both the upstream and downstream parts of the global energy complex. This creates a new array of problems that will surely result in stranded assets with higher costs and higher prices to end users. That was the message of the huge spike in the diesel crack spread.
Refineries around the world are more vulnerable to possible attack and surely more valuable due to the destruction of refining capacity in Russia and the Strait of Hormuz over the past six months. While the war goes on, Ukraine has demonstrated advanced capabilities of drones that will impact how and where battles will be waged for the foreseeable future. Like the rifled bore, the gatling gun and the tank, drones will change the battlefield and the tactics used on it. Military doctrine must adjust and mastering drone technology is an existential necessity.
Bigger Pie Forum's Ashby Foote penned this column.
This post is sponsored by Bigger Pie Forum.
9 comments:
drones don't need a 30 cal machine gun. An AI controlled .22LR Gatling gun with a 100,000 round magazine can make short work of any drone swarm. second layer after the gatling guns is tech similar to what they use to clear minefields which is swinging chains. The solutions to the drone issue are easy as fuck. It's like the MIC want to justify spending a trillion dollars on electronic supersonic microwave whizbangs instead of cheap and effective.
"Blame Ukrainian Engineers"
Nope. Ukrainian engineers didn't get semi trucks loaded with Starlink connected drones 1000km inside Russian territory. The CIA did that.
No, you whiny Russian troll. I don't blame Ukraine. I applaud Ukrainians for their ingenuity in defending their country from your deluded Putin. Piss on him.
I wonder what comes after drones? I mean they already had tech to kill drones years ago, it’s already been implemented.
Oil? I thought they said we were going to run out of it years ago? I remember in the late 90’s when gas was .75 a gallon and then it went to $1.12 and people were freaking out about that. Oh well something else for the normies to freak out about.
Oil was never 75cents a gallon in the 90s. Are you Gen Z?
"Oil was never 75cents a gallon in the 90s."
"Oil" was less than 75 cents a gallon for most of the 1990s (less than 50 cents a gallon for most of that time period; I don't recall if it ever hit precisely $31.50/bbl). Gasoline was around $1.00 a gallon for most of 1990s.
@7:02pm - Elder millennial here. I distinctly remember paying 75c a gallon one summer in the late 90s when I was driving as a teenager. This was in Brookhaven.
Are you Gen Z?
I guess this article is why Defense Secretary Hegseth's Acting Army Chief of Staff Gen. Christopher LaNeve has decided to wind down an experiment in developing a drone battalion. Who needs an army trained in drone warfare in 2026?
I remember paying $1.25 or so in Metairie around 2005 to mid-2006. I remember thinking at the time, “Damn, is it ever going to stop going up?”
Remember those stickers of a goofy-faced Biden put on gas pumps around 2021 and ‘22? He was pointing, and the sticker would be applied so that his finger was pointing at the price per gallon displayed on the pump, a caption reading “I did that”? It’s time to have the same such stickers made, this time bearing Trump’s picture. Maybe it could show Bibi, too, with his arm around Trump like a proud parent with a caption reading, “And I made him do it.”
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