Wednesday, June 10, 2020

Covid-19 Update: More of the Same

The Mississippi State Department of Health reported 374 new cases of the Wuhan Virus as well as 21 deaths today. The total number of cases is 18,483 The virus has caused 868 deaths. Nursing home deaths comprise 51% of overall Covid-19 deaths in Mississippi. There are 13,356 recoveries.  More information and a complete list of infected counties can be found at the MSDH website. 


The BIG chart provided a little bit of a breather yesterday after several increases.



The deaths have blown past earlier IMHE estimates of 237-403 deaths.  The much-disputed model now projects 1,380 deaths by August 4. However, the Rt value for Mississippi is 0.92.  RT Live Data. The goal is to keep it below 1.0.



18 comments:

Anonymous said...

It's just like these mob protest in these Democratic run cities, COVID-19 just won't go away!

Anonymous said...

Love how we all focus on infected numbers, dead numbers and ICU/Vent numbers, but never the recovered that are actually impressive.

Anonymous said...

The reason the virus isn't going away is because there are 3 different virus on the loose.

1. Wuhan Virus
2. COVID-19
3. Coronavirus

We need to fight all three.

Anonymous said...

With around 15 deaths per day and no sign of slowing down then 1,380 is a perfectly reasonable number by the first of August. Covid19-projections.com is a little more pessimistic in showing an increase in the infection rate throughout the month of June and 1,700 deaths by August 1. They have the current Rt at 1.05.

I have my doubts about the RT Live Data since they have shown the Rt value for Mississippi at below 1 for the past six weeks even as our hospitalizations, ICU, Vents, and deaths have not been decreasing. If it had been between .92 and .95 as they show and a typical incubation period of five days I would have expected the number to have decreased by around 20% over that period.

Anonymous said...

JJ, any word on why they didn't release yesterday's numbers until like 6pm? Or was it 7? I was starting to get paranoid that Tate had decided to stop releasing daily numbers for morale purposes.

Anonymous said...

what happened to the major spike when things opened back up?

Anonymous said...

It has been 91 days since March 11 when tracking began in MS.

During that time 868 people have died of/with Covid-19 of which 447 or 51.5% were LTC residents.

During the same period of time in a typical year without Covid-19, there would have been approximately 7,916 deaths (calculated using the daily average number of deaths from the years 2014 through 2018).

Is Covid-19 adding to the average daily and average annual number of deaths or simply shifting deaths from the category they would have been in heart disease, cancer, respiratory disease, diabetes, etc to no being classified as Covid-19?

Anonymous said...

"what happened to the major spike when things opened back up?"

Just in the middle of the biggest 7 day average of daily cases we've had yet...no biggie.

Anonymous said...

This posting does nothing but stir fear and anxiety. We will have more infected but more asymptomatic. Deaths will occur but so will recovery. Should just let it run it's course as there isn't a single soul on this site that can change anything.

Anonymous said...

2:10 According to the CDC, Mississippi has had between 200 (on the lower end) and 600 (on the higher end) more deaths than expected from the middle of March until the end of May. There is more than just a shift of classification in normal deaths going on.

Anonymous said...

https://msbusiness.com/2020/06/three-day-state-covid-19-total-most-since-pandemic-began/

Anonymous said...

The statistics say that about 32,000 people per year die from ALL causes.

We can say it til we are blue in the face that thousands will die from this virus, but if only 32,000 people die this year as usual, then did the virus really kill thousands?

The virus may kill 500 in Mississippi this year. The rest of these deaths were just accelerated a few weeks or months.

Anonymous said...

3:29 "if only 32,000 people die this year as usual" is a huge assumption.

CDC data lags by a couple of weeks, but if we use the average weekly deaths between the first week of April and the third week in May (678 per week) as the expected death rate for the rest of the year and an actual number of deaths from Jan 1 - May 16 of 13,128 we would have 34,824 deaths in 2020 which is 2,824 more than average. If anything that might be a bit low as the death rate was increasing during that time and is showing no signs of slowing down.

So yes, at this point it is reasonable to say COVID is killing thousands of Mississippians.

Anonymous said...

Pretend this thread, in fact this whole blog, is a classroom full of sophomores and the professor has not yet entered the room. A bunch of cackling idiots, day in and day out, all pretending to know the course-work, none knowing shit.

Theca Jones of the Roguish Gent Podcast said...

Of course there are more and more cases coming. People won't socially distance, nor wear masks. It could all be so simple but some of y'all don't believe fat meat is greasy. *shrugs*

EAB said...

"Is Covid-19 adding to the average daily and average annual number of deaths or simply shifting deaths from the category they would have been in heart disease, cancer, respiratory disease, diabetes, etc to no being classified as Covid-19?"

What you're basically asking is how likely this person was to die now of Covid instead of three months from now of heart disease or something else. The problem is that all-cause mortality is fairly low even for old people and those with underlying conditions (https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html).

Your average 80-year-old man has a life expectancy of 8.28 years (9.68 for women). We expect him to live for approximately 3022 more days, meaning that his chance of death on any given day is 1/3022 or 0.03%. In a given 90-day period, there's a 2.7% chance he would die of any non-Covid cause. So if he dies today of Covid, there's a 97% chance he'd have been fine and would not have died in the next three months.

(I'm actually oversimplifying a bit because this isn't linear -- he's much more likely to die on day 2800 than on day 28 -- but it makes the math easier and doesn't affect the conclusion here that he is overwhelmingly likely to have been fine without Covid.)

This also covers the argument about whether folks with conditions die of or with Covid -- 0.9% chance he would have had the same heart attack or whatever in ~30 days of being sick. If you've got 100 deaths in this age group, you can take about 1 of them out... but that still leaves you with almost all deaths being strictly attributable to Covid.

Obviously, I'm using all-cause mortality across populations, not life expectations for people with heart disease or whatever. However, those people's life expectancies are often still high enough that you can assume their deaths are due to Covid. An 80-year-old man with heart disease can expect to live 2.2 more years, so there's only an 11% chance he would die of his heart disease (or anything else) in the next 3 months (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2994551/). If he gets Covid and dies, there's an 89% chance it was truly the Covid, not just a slight shift of nature taking its inevitable course.

You can tinker around at the margins, but the overwhelming majority of deaths of people with Covid are because they had Covid. You can't, like, handwave away half the death rate here by saying it would have happened any day anyway.

Confused Us said...

Dead is dead, no matter how you get that way.

Anonymous said...


"... The virus may kill 500 in Mississippi this year. The rest of these deaths were just accelerated a few weeks or months."
June 10, 2020 at 3:29 PM

That is EXACTLY RIGHT. I assume that you, like me, found the YouTube video:

Dr. Simon Thornley - 'An epidemiologist's take on Covid-19'


Recent Comments

Search Jackson Jambalaya

Subscribe to JJ's Youtube channel

Archives

Trollfest '09

Trollfest '07 was such a success that Jackson Jambalaya will once again host Trollfest '09. Catch this great event which will leave NE Jackson & Fondren in flames. Othor Cain and his band, The Black Power Structure headline the night while Sonjay Poontang returns for an encore performance. Former Frank Melton bodyguard Marcus Wright makes his premier appearance at Trollfest singing "I'm a Sweet Transvestite" from "The Rocky Horror Picture Show." Kamikaze will sing his new hit, “How I sold out to da Man.” Robbie Bell again performs: “Mamas, don't let your babies grow up to be Bells” and “Any friend of Ed Peters is a friend of mine”. After the show, Ms. Bell will autograph copies of her mug shot photos. In a salute to “Dancing with the Stars”, Ms. Bell and Hinds County District Attorney Robert Smith will dance the Wango Tango.

Wrestling returns, except this time it will be a Battle Royal with Othor Cain, Ben Allen, Kim Wade, Haley Fisackerly, Alan Lange, and “Big Cat” Donna Ladd all in the ring at the same time. The Battle Royal will be in a steel cage, no time limit, no referee, and the losers must leave town. Marshand Crisler will be the honorary referee (as it gives him a title without actually having to do anything).


Meet KIM Waaaaaade at the Entergy Tent. For five pesos, Kim will sell you a chance to win a deed to a crack house on Ridgeway Street stuffed in the Howard Industries pinata. Don't worry if the pinata is beaten to shreds, as Mr. Wade has Jose, Emmanuel, and Carlos, all illegal immigrants, available as replacements for the it. Upon leaving the Entergy tent, fig leaves will be available in case Entergy literally takes everything you have as part of its Trollfest ticket price adjustment charge.

Donna Ladd of The Jackson Free Press will give several classes on learning how to write. Smearing, writing without factchecking, and reporting only one side of a story will be covered. A donation to pay their taxes will be accepted and she will be signing copies of their former federal tax liens. Ms. Ladd will give a dramatic reading of her two award-winning essays (They received The Jackson Free Press "Best Of" awards.) "Why everything is always about me" and "Why I cover murders better than anyone else in Jackson".

In the spirit of helping those who are less fortunate, Trollfest '09 adopts a cause for which a portion of the proceeds and donations will be donated: Keeping Frank Melton in his home. The “Keep Frank Melton From Being Homeless” booth will sell chances for five dollars to pin the tail on the jackass. John Reeves has graciously volunteered to be the jackass for this honorable excursion into saving Frank's ass. What's an ass between two friends after all? If Mr. Reeves is unable to um, perform, Speaker Billy McCoy has also volunteered as when the word “jackass” was mentioned he immediately ran as fast as he could to sign up.


In order to help clean up the legal profession, Adam Kilgore of the Mississippi Bar will be giving away free, round-trip plane tickets to the North Pole where they keep their bar complaint forms (which are NOT available online). If you don't want to go to the North Pole, you can enjoy Brant Brantley's (of the Mississippi Commission on Judicial Performance) free guided tours of the quicksand field over by High Street where all complaints against judges disappear. If for some reason you are unable to control yourself, never fear; Judge Houston Patton will operate his jail where no lawyers are needed or allowed as you just sit there for minutes... hours.... months...years until he decides he is tired of you sitting in his jail. Do not think Judge Patton is a bad judge however as he plans to serve free Mad Dog 20/20 to all inmates.

Trollfest '09 is a pet-friendly event as well. Feel free to bring your dog with you and do not worry if your pet gets hungry, as employees of the Jackson Zoo will be on hand to provide some of their animals as food when it gets to be feeding time for your little loved one.

Relax at the Fox News Tent. Since there are only three blonde reporters in Jackson (being blonde is a requirement for working at Fox News), Megan and Kathryn from WAPT and Wendy from WLBT will be on loan to Fox. To gain admittance to the VIP section, bring either your Republican Party ID card or a Rebel Flag. Bringing both and a torn-up Obama yard sign will entitle you to free drinks served by Megan, Wendy, and Kathryn. Get your tickets now. Since this is an event for trolls, no ID is required. Just bring the hate. Bring the family, Trollfest '09 is for EVERYONE!!!

This is definitely a Beaver production.


Note: Security provided by INS.

Trollfest '07

Jackson Jambalaya is the home of Trollfest '07. Catch this great event which promises to leave NE Jackson & Fondren in flames. Sonjay Poontang and his band headline the night with a special steel cage, no time limit "loser must leave town" bout between Alan Lange and "Big Cat"Donna Ladd following afterwards. Kamikaze will perform his new song F*** Bush, he's still a _____. Did I mention there was no referee? Dr. Heddy Matthias and Lori Gregory will face off in the undercard dueling with dangling participles and other um, devices. Robbie Bell will perform Her two latest songs: My Best Friends are in the Media and Mama's, Don't Let Your Babies Grow up to be George Bell. Sid Salter of The Clarion-Ledger will host "Pin the Tail on the Trial Lawyer", sponsored by State Farm.

There will be a hugging booth where in exchange for your young son, Frank Melton will give you a loooong hug. Trollfest will have a dunking booth where Muhammed the terrorist will curse you to Allah as you try to hit a target that will drop him into a vat of pig grease. However, in the true spirit of Separate But Equal, Don Imus and someone from NE Jackson will also sit in the dunking booth for an equal amount of time. Tom Head will give a reading for two hours on why he can't figure out who the hell he is. Cliff Cargill will give lessons with his .80 caliber desert eagle, using Frank Melton photos as targets. Tackleberry will be on hand for an autograph session. KIM Waaaaaade will be passing out free titles and deeds to crackhouses formerly owned by The Wood Street Players.

If you get tired come relax at the Fox News Tent. To gain admittance to the VIP section, bring either your Republican Party ID card or a Rebel Flag. Bringing both will entitle you to free drinks.Get your tickets now. Since this is an event for trolls, no ID is required, just bring the hate. Bring the family, Trollfest '07 is for EVERYONE!!!

This is definitely a Beaver production.

Note: Security provided by INS
.