Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Will Live-blog the election tonight.

I'll probably start at 7.  So the first big question: What are you drinking tonight? Post in comments. Use this post for election night comments. Cabernet tonight for me.

Kentucky and Indiana for Romney, Vermont for Obama. Dead even in Florida. Romney wins West Virginia. Coal cost Obama. Will it in Penn? Stay tuned.

South Caronlina for Romney. Obama ahead in Florida BUT two of his main counties came in. Panhandle polls not closed yet.

Time to start.
Dogfight in Florida. Romney down by 70,000 votes with 42% of the vote counted. Polls just closed in panhandle. Southeastern counties coming in. Shows why Romney spent so much time recently in Florida when he supposedly had it wrapped up. This going to be a dogfight. 64-40 Obama in EV's right now.

FLIP! 50% of Florida vote, Romney now has lead, 51-49; Romney now has roughly a 100,000 vote lead. Can we replace Megan Kelly with Kristen Powers on a full-time basis? Are they high-fiving over at MSNBC? 56% vote counted. Now 131,000 vote lead for Romney. Dade and Western panhandle still out. Now Florida is back to Obama as Dade comes in. He has a 100,000 vote lead in Dade. Broward is out. Western panhandle counties (9) are out. Rove argues most of the Obama votes are early votes and now the election day votes are rolling in. We will see. The Fox online map is pretty good.

Wicker wins. Surprise. ;-)

People still voting in Virginia so state stopped releasing results. Republican won NC Governor's race by around ten points. Does that mean Romney carries tarheels? OUCH! Broward in and Romney loses that county by 170,000 votes. Western panhandle still out. Obama up 51-48 by nearly 160,000 votes in the Sunshine State with 55% counted. Florida is just plain going to be a dogfight until the last vote is counted. Did I mention my neighbor just brought me a box of Aunt Sallie's pralines from New Orleans? Bye-bye liver.

Looks like we are going to stay on Florida for quite a while. Apparently Obama's votes are up 2% over 2008 in Broward and Dade. If true, that is going to screw up some models big-time. We are at 60% and Obama has a 100,000 vote lead. Morris tweets "worried". Why I never took him seriously. Learned my lesson in 2008 when he smugly assured us Hillary would win and then McCain could pull it out at the end. Romney getting killed by nearly 200,000 votes in Broward and Dad is almost is ugly.

Obama takes Michigan. That is a nail in the coffin. Not the final two or three nails but a nail as it was one of the swing states Romney needed. There was a constitutional amendment on the ballot that created a constitutional right to collective bargain. Heavily pushed by unions. That and the bailout debate probably hurt Romney. 74% and 50/50 in Florida. Here we go again. Romney now up by 3,000 or so votes in Florida with 76% in. LSU-Bama all over again. Louis XIV is chewing the hell out of a dried chicken foot. Chateau La Pooch sells them. Loves it. Weird.

Penn for Obama. Romney NEEDED Penn if he wanted to avoid needing Ohio. No such luck. Another nail.

Interested in Madison races? Here is a link: Madison results Banks and Waller are tight in Madison County. Santore Bracy beating Jermel Clark with 8 of 27 in by 905 votes.

So far the Dems are having a VERY good night. I expected Thompson and Brown to win their Senate races. Nope. Every tight state is going to the Dems. I give them credit, they earned it so far. Started hitting Romney early and often, built up a ground game, while Stuart Stevens ran the same type of race he ran for Lucien Smith last year or I should say, lack of a race, until it was too late.

Obama wins Ohio. That is the nail in the coffin. Congratulations to the Democrats. They did what they had to do. They got out there in the early summer to hit Romney early and often. They made the election about Romney instead of Obama. If you read my post from four years ago about The Blueprint by Schraeger, the seeds were sown a long time ago for this victory. The Dems put together a campaign that focused on having boots on the ground and were able to play ethnic politics (Not to be confused with playing a race card) to perfection.

Except for North Carolina, every swing state went for Obama. I don't begrudge them this victory as they earned this one.


County update: JERMEL CLARKE goes down. One of the dumbest office-holders ever elected in Hinds County went down and went down hard tonight as Santore Bracey beat him 65-35 in District 3. Damn. Clarke earned this one as even his own party criticized his screwing up of the absentee ballots this year. Marilyn Avery losing by the same margin as the two precincts that were 2000 votes and nearly 100% black moved by Robert Graham into District 1 did the trick and helped Reed avoid a runoff.

62 comments:

KaptKangaroo said...

Here come the polls!!!!

5..4...3...2.......1....

Romney
KY
IN

Obama
VT

Anonymous said...

beer til midnight, then either champagne or lye.

Anonymous said...

Just watched Earl Banks on television when asked should Chief Justice be an elected or appointed position his reply was the people of Mississippi like to elect their elected officials. Ohhhhhkaaaaay

Jack said...

Hoplanta IPA.

Anonymous said...

Johnny Walker Black........

Darryl Hamilton said...

Estancia meritage at the moment, but Balvenie Caribbean Cask in a few minutes.

Anonymous said...

Arkansas House and Senate went Republican today for the first time since Reconstruction

Anonymous said...

Maker's Mark to numb the pain. We never had a chance at Ohio. If election results do not make you sick, try watching the people on msnbc.

Anonymous said...

It is looking very bleak for those of who work, pay taxes, and pay for our own phones.

Darryl Hamilton said...

Sad to see Janet Shearer not winning her bid.

Megyn Kelly is a smokeshow...and Martha Maccallum? Should turn any CNN aficionado into a FOX addict.

Anonymous said...

“If I hear anybody say it was because Romney wasn’t conservative enough I’m going to go nuts. We’re not losing 95 percent of African-Americans and two-thirds of Hispanics and voters under 30 because we’re not being hard-ass enough.” - Lindsey Graham

Anonymous said...

What happened with Marilyn Avery?

Darryl Hamilton said...

Fuck.

Anonymous said...

I'm amazed Ohio was called this early. Of course, they called Florida kind of early in 2000, soooooo ....

It's interesting that SO MANY Republicans (and Democrats, for that matter) were completely convinced that their candidate would win. Are the internal polling efforts calling too many of their own people? How are their numbers so bad?

James from Jackson said...

Y'all lost tonight because Ronald Reagan isn't walking thought that door. Take 4 years, find yourselves, stop saying dumb shit about rape, stop alienating women and non white people, stop mythologizing small business and wealth, stop trying to win on wedge issues like abortion and gay marriage, get some actual ideas and get your boy Ryan or Christie ready to get stomped by Hillary.

Anonymous said...

KF, what are the chances of having a reasonable, thoughtful, non-assy, nutjob-free discussion on this site in the next few weeks about the Republican party, the role of the Tea Party, whether the primaries are working when it comes to producing candidates who have a shot in a general, etc.?

I would REALLY love to see that discussion so long as it's not hijacked by Kool-Aid drinkers on both the left and the right.

andrewPineBelt said...

OH MY GOD JAMES FROM JACKSON, BEST COMMENT ON THIS SITE IN THE ENTIRE YEAR I HAVE BEEN READING.

thank you

AndrewPineBelt said...

I'm just glad people in Colorado can FINALLY smoke a bowl in peace now.......

Anonymous said...

Ryan didn't even carry his hometown, much less his state.
Romney waited too long to go to the middle as he was afraid of the extreme right ( part of why he didn't pick Portman and should have).
But, the real problem is what James said...the GOP had a old white male strategy and mentality when the demographics are brown and female and young people actually show up now.

I'd add that attempting to make voting more difficult backfired . The lack of cooperation in Congress was transparently political rather than principled.
But, I'm afraid the GOP will blame Christie and Sandy.
Lincoln was right. You can fool some of the people...

meople said...

I believe the bro hug between Obama and Christie changed the independent vote. Christie needs to tighten up... Remember this if he is on the ticket next time. On a side note multiple guns shots @ ridgeland apts.

Anonymous said...

KF, what are the chances of having a reasonable, thoughtful, non-assy, nutjob-free discussion on this site in the next few weeks about the Republican party, the role of the Tea Party, whether the primaries are working when it comes to producing candidates who have a shot in a general, etc.?

I would REALLY love to see that discussion so long as it's not hijacked by Kool-Aid drinkers on both the left and the right.


I get it. You want to hijack JJ.

Anonymous said...

... stop trying to win on wedge issues like abortion and gay marriage ...

Check your crib sheet Sparky. Obama was the candidate running on those issues.

Anonymous said...

Bright spots in this awful situation: Obama can't run again and we'll have Joe Biden to entertain us for a few more years.

Sigh.......

James from Jackson said...

@4:24: feel free to post any video clips of the president doing anything other than affirming a woman's freedom to choose what to do with her body or that of gay people to be equally protected by the law. Once you find those, let me know. The president won because your party hasn't addressed the demographic changes taking place in this country. Between that and the extremism many of its members embrace, y'all are on the road to being irrelevant outside of the south in the next ten or twenty years. Stop stepping on your own dicks or stop mattering. It's that simple.

Anonymous said...

Tort reform is here to stay.

The Democratic brand in MS remains crap.

Anonymous said...

What November 6, 2012 10:59 PM really wants is to pontificate and then have KF censor comments of those who disagree.

Romney wasn't no Tea Party candidate.

Anonymous said...

James thinks Obama won a mandate. He didn't.

Anonymous said...

We need a strong two party system . The party who retains control too long becomes increasingly arrogant and in the end increasingly corrupt.

We need a strong two party system because neither party can be wise on every issue every time.

If you care about the future of the GOP and this Nation, it's time to abandon the political strategy of Atwater, Rove, Reed, Norquist and the other neo-cons.

Look at the faces in the crowds of both parties...at rallies and conventions and at the end. There's your hint.

The GOP cannot win as a white middle aged party. The boomers are starting to die. Reagan's amnesty law in 1986 helped give the US a large Latino voting group that the GOP could have embraced and didn't.

Most humans eventually get tired of being angry, fearful and belligerent all the time .Neighbors get weary of hearing the fighting next door. It's exhausting. That's why most married couples that fight all the time get divorced and lose friends in the process. People get tired of hearing negative stuff all the time.

Humans are attracted to those who are positive and hopeful and encouraging. And, while Romney is every bit as much that kind of man as is Obama, he seemed less so in no small part because too many in his party were mean spirited and hateful and he had to cater to that group.

Blaming Christie is a mistake. Christie will be re-elected in NJ. Christie has a national future if he wants it, Ryan does not. Ryan didn't even carry his hometown. That should tell you something.

Bill Clinton's brilliance was taking the Democratic party back from the extremists and towards the middle. The GOP needs a leader to do the same. Clinton, Buckley, Reagan,Dirkson and Obama all share(d) the ability to point out differences without coming across as smug or mean spirited or self-righteous or being a total nerd. They all played well with others. They could take the offense without being offensive. That kind of leader is what the GOP sorely needs.

Smug, mean-spiritedness, self-righteousness and nerdy is killing the GOP.

It's not just who you want to have a beer with either, it's who you think won't stab you in the back when you leave the bar. Both Kerry and Romney made you think with the inconsistency that they might.

Anonymous said...

Marilyn lost.

Anonymous said...

Lt. Graham is smiling. His gerrymander of a district needing no changes to be in compliance worked.

The funnel of GOP voting strength in NE Jackson narrows further. The Ward 1 Council seat will fall next.

Corruption, incompetence and cronyism is a growth industry in Jackson and Hinds.

Anonymous said...

Hillary Clinton? Someone must have been smoking some fine weed last night. LMAO

Roland Tembo said...

Children, grow up. The election of either Obama or Romney will have little measureable effects on your actual personal life, I promise. Unless you know something I don't. Which I doubt. But please, feel free to (rationally and with as little vitriol as possible) show me evidence otherwise.

Anonymous said...

You've opened up your mouth. Prove your premise first Tembo. Use whatever vitriol your thin skin would like to dish up.

reximus said...

Meople- I heard the gunshots you referenced from my front porch. It sounded like someone emptied a magazine in about 5 seconds.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
Interesting theory emerging: undertow effect - base of Obama is eroding and the Dems know it. The drag of the base eroding is bringing his numbers down while boosting Romney. Theory based on loss of confidence and the erosion is simply due to "not voting" and letting others make the decision for them.
From the "Someone is Freaking Out" Post a few days ago...


October 30, 2012 3:48 PM
Anonymous said...
Man, you guys are hilarious. You should build a wall around the state. Obama has it. Sorry.

October 30, 2012 5:16 PM
Anonymous said...
5:16 see 3:40. Enjoy yourself for a few days.

Looks like all you guys in the 'Sip really have your finger on the pulse of the nation. Kaptain, didn't you guarantee an Obama loss?

meople said...

reximus - i thought i was in jackson for a little bit... gunshots and police sirens all through the night. Beleive me when i say i stood at my post just like i did 4 years ago.

reximus said...

I live just north of Lake Harbor and it sounded like they came from those apts behind Amerigo or perhaps the ones on William Blvd.

meople said...

same here but i am sure it was the ones on lake harbor between newks and primos. police kept flashing there sirens - lets just say i was on high alert. logically i see how the liberals are when there favorite basketball team wins. (looting, fires, and flipping police cars) i was almost sure that atleast on one of his election something would have broke out. But respectfully so i was glad to se a peaceful protest on the North Miss. campus.

Anonymous said...

My predictions: those states controlling the electoral votes (ie: California & Ohio) will continue their slide into deeper & deeper debt leaving them no choices other than higher & higher corporate taxes. That will cause those corporations to relocate to more business friendly states (like Mississippi). Before the end of Obamas reign, the south will rise again. We will prosper while the west coast & the northeast sit around trying to figure out what went wrong.

Anonymous said...

From THE NATIONAL REVIEW:

So what went wrong? First, demographics. This election is testimony to the fact that Republicans cannot survive by being the party of old white men. The white share of the electorate has steadily declined for the last several elections, and this time around, whites accounted for just 72 percent of the vote.

Other demographic changes worked against Republicans as well. For example, single women now outnumber married women in the electorate, and they favored Obama by roughly 30 points. The gender gap overall was bigger this year than in 2008. Moreover, the youth vote was larger this year than in 2008, and Obama dominated that too. American voters have changed, but Republicans haven’t changed with them.

Republicans must face up to the fact that their hard-line stance on immigration is disqualifying their candidates with Hispanics. Whereas George W. Bush once carried 44 percent of the Latino vote, Mitt Romney couldn’t crack 35 percent. To see why Romney appears to have essentially tied in Florida, for example, just look to Obama’s margin among non-Cuban Hispanics. Similarly, the growing Hispanic vote clearly cost Romney both Nevada and Colorado.

President Obama is likely to push immigration reform in his second term, and Republicans are going to have to find how to address the issue in a way that will not cost them the Latino vote for generations to come.

Second, social issues continue to hurt Republicans with women, young voters, and suburbanites. The problem is not just a matter of their stance on the issues, but their tone. It’s not just that Republicans oppose abortion or gay marriage, but that they often sound intolerant and self-righteous in doing so. Romney himself may not have put much emphasis on social issues, but the Republican brand was too easily associated with the words of Todd Akin.

Christian conservatives appear to have supported Romney by roughly the same margins they had previous Republican candidates. Exit polls suggest he won more than two-thirds of regular churchgoers. But their support couldn’t overcome Romney’s losses among economically conservative, socially moderate voters in the suburbs. Republican candidates seem culturally out of touch with a large swath of the electorate.

The GOP compounded this by indulging mindless “birther” theories throughout much of the campaign, and by failing to offer a positive, hopeful agenda for the future. In the end, swing voters were turned off.

Over the next few weeks, the experts will undoubtedly pick apart the exit polls and the precinct-by-precinct results, but it isn’t hard to see that Republicans are going to have to do some serious soul searching in several respects, or this defeat will just be the beginning.

— Michael Tanner is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute and author of "Leviathan on the Right: How Big-Government Conservatism Brought Down the Republican Revolution."

Anonymous said...

This election is testimony to the fact that Republicans cannot survive by being the party of old white men.

Old white men got the checkbooks.

meople said...

corporate taxes have already been increased for 2013... i can see a decrease in corporations and an increase in llc's in our (my) future.

Anonymous said...

"Old white men got the checkbooks."

And yet, NOT the Presidency.

KaptKangaroo said...

Why post anonymously? You keeping it on the DL?

What I do know:
1. Benghazi is an issue for the Obama Administration and they will be held accountable.
2. The fiscal cliff is on it's way. The administration has no clue how to fix it without raising taxes.
3. The looming debt rating reduction, see above.

And thanks for your selfish vote, I am going to enjoy continuing to pay escalating living, food & gas costs, increased taxes, decreased ability to send my children to school without taking government loans. Really, thanks. Maybe I'll look into the new Government Assistance programs.... nah, I can make it without their help, I'll just work four jobs.

See you in four years.

Anonymous said...

what you are going to see is people like me who make 250,000k or more stop investing and hanging on to their money. That means that the economy is going to slow. The Fondren elite will have to solely support Sal and Mookie's and Walker's, cause the rest of us are gonna stay home and play jinga. Four more years of higher taxes, 5-7 dollar gas, carbon taxes, and obamacare health costs will drive the taxpayers paying for the nanny state to do less and feed the economy less. If any of you think that life will "just go on" and those footing the bill will continue business as usual will be disappointed. In four years the country will be at a breaking point, our currency will have been qualitatively eased to worthlessness and commodities will cost you more than you can imagine. I predict small business failure and more government assistance. Soon we will look like the depressing UK. I am saddened by the outcome, but horrified about the probable future. Relish your win, how progressive it must feel, but you will regret this vote as it unfolds.

JamesFromJackson said...

@kaptkangaroo: America, love it or leave it. Oh, wait. Your non-Syria or Afghanistan but still viable options all have higher taxes and socialized medicine.
Severely conservative governors or anything else are going the way of the dodo bird. Y'all don't let the door hit your asses on the way out, hear?

Anonymous said...

James from Jackson and Kapt. Kangaroo -- two sides of the same annoying wingnut coin.

Curt Crowley said...

It's sad to say, but we Republicans deserved to lose this election. In fact, we deserve to lose every election until the Party detaches its lips from the collective ass of America's village idiot, aka Fundamentalist Christianity. We cannot spend years railing against abortion, advocating forced insertion of vaginal probes to listen for a "heartbeat" that doesn't exist, bitching about school prayer, quoting the Book of Levidiot and coming just short of chanting "God Hates Fags," and expect to win a national election.

America as a whole does not give a flying rip about this nonsense. The only people who care about this crap are the churchgoing imbeciles who lack the intellectual capacity to give consideration to finding real solutions to real problems, and the huckster preachers who profit from them.

Harping on these social issues does nothing but widen the gap between the Party and women. It gives the impression thats the Party is an angry, intolerant group of rich white male jackasses.

Either discard the social issue bullshit, or get used to losing.

reximus said...

Well said Curt. I have been trying to impress that very point upon my friend who is active in the Tea Party for a while. Meanwhile Eisenhower and Goldwater spin in their graves.

Anonymous said...

Agreed Curt, the religious have hijacked the republican party. I am an atheist, could give a shit about a god or fairy tales. Abort away, most aborted babies will wind up wards of the state if left alive. Have any kind of sex you want with whoever you want. I actually want all drugs legalized and taxed. Make not for profit status for churches illegal. End tax deductions for church donations. Have god taken out of the courts and off my money. WWDJ, who gives a damn.

KaptKangaroo said...

Curt I completely agree with you. I would add some of the intollerable Tea Party crap with it - or at least have the TP join in the criticism of the conspiracy theorists and Trumpites.

And, 7:25pm you bring what to the table? Nothing. So long, farewell, I hate to see you go...

KaptKangaroo said...

James go get yourself a latte and calm down.

Anonymous said...

I would add some of the intollerable Tea Party crap ...

Share what you find intolerable.

KaptKangaroo said...

Now that I’ve had the opportunity to read and digest the comments from James and our anonymous laureate, let me begin…

James, while you fret over the froth height of your latte in that leisure-life sitting in a coffee shop you call a job, why not take the time to watch the following video. This goes for you 7:25PM too. It is about 4 hours, but it is black and white facts. I doubt either of you will watch it in its entirety, but it is amazing testimony. I don’t care if you are a pot smokin’ tea partying bisexual leper – this is incredible stuff from four different perspectives.

Benghazi is not going away.

As to your reference to Syria and to Afghanistan, I’ve made no reference, but apparently this morning on Al Jazeera, Al Qaeda is referenced and the Libyan weapons (mentioned in the video) are being directly connected to a potential Al-Qaeda Spring.

If you want to get into the complexities of foreign policy, please bring it. Otherwise, stick to your heady intellectual conversation about the greatness of “free stuff”.

Anonymous said...

Have any kind of sex you want with whoever you want.

Can we assume you support polygamy?

Anonymous said...

Wish the links worked Kapt. Can you repost?

KaptKangaroo said...

Something is going wrong with Blogger. KF???

Getting error Your HTML cannot be accepted: Reference "”http:" is not allowed: A

Benghazi is not going away
http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/308674-1

Al Qaeda is referenced and the Libyan weapons
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2012/11/2012113131929539319.html

Anonymous said...

Benghazi is not going away

Anonymous said...

James from Fondren you insights is truly dizzying.

Do you understand the following?

Do you know how they got there?

Greece is not the Word

Anonymous said...

No, I just don't care who or how you choose to screw, as long a children aren't involved, but please do it in the privacy of your home and don't make it an issue I have to support. And hey, if you want several people involved, just move to Reunion. I hear Saturday nights are great and Sunday everyone piles in the car and heads to a pinelake branch to watch Chip on CCTV.

reximus said...

Bravo for getting a Reunion AND a PineCult blast in the same comment. Nicely done, sir.

Anonymous said...

Thank you, I am not a fan of religion, but self proclaimed messiah worshiping hypocrites make me itch, as do misogynistic demagogues in 200 dollar designer jeans and boots.


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