Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Clarion-Ledger engages in fearmongering

The Clarion-Ledger published a story recently about the housing market in Jackson, "Jackson Area Home Sales Plummet". Unfortunately, the details in the story didn't come close to supporting the headline as the "state" newspaper engaged in a little bit of yellow journalism.

The article began with the standard example of a homeowner struggling to sell his home as it fits the template:
"It's tough to sell a house these days. Just ask Brandon resident J.P. Martin.
He has not only seen prices plummet and inventories swell as he tries to sell his Byram home, but also must contend with a new round of payments at his new home in Rankin County.
When he put the 4-year-old Byram house up for sale more than seven months ago, the asking price for the 1,300-square-foot, three-bedroom, two-bathroom house was $124,900. It was lowered to $119,000 last week.
More price reductions may not make a difference, Martin said, as an ongoing credit crunch makes it more difficult for many people to buy homes.
"We've had quite a few people walk through and say, 'It's one of the nicest houses in the neighborhood,' but people who want to buy can't get qualified (for loans)," Martin said
."

Mr. Martin reduces the price of his home nearly 5% and that is considered a plummeting price? Just one problem in this narrative as its obvious Mr. Ayers didn't bother to read his own story:
"Martin said he paid $117,750 for the Byram home in February 2007 and planned to stay there awhile. But he and his wife both have since found jobs about 45 minutes away and wanted to move closer to their workplaces."

Everyone get that? This "business reporter" considers an INCREASE of a listing price from $117,750 to $119,500 to be an example of a price that plummets. Where did this guy intern? The Jackson Free Press? Unfortunately, Mr. Ayers was just getting warmed up as he then used for his second example about the Jackson real housing market a home from........... Prentiss, a little berg between Monticello and Collins:
"Michael Anthony is having trouble selling a less-expensive home in Prentiss.
He bought the 1,600-square-foot house in August 2007 for $53,000. The home is 60 years old with three bedrooms, two bathrooms, high ceilings, a front porch and a small yard.
Since putting his home up for sale in May, the asking price has dropped from $59,500 to $52,500.
Anthony says the price may come down more if no buyers emerge.
"It's a nice home for a small family," he said before conceding, "It's definitely a fixer-upper."
But no one has given the home a serious look, and Anthony worries about having to hang on to it along with two homes elsewhere in the state that he plans to keep
."

One wonders how the editor read this story with a straight face as Mr. Anthony is complaining because about a poor market after he listed the price 10% more than what he paid for it less than two years ago ( in a RURAL area). It should come as no surprise to any sensible person who stays informed on current events that Mr. Anthony would probably have a hard time selling such a home, especially one that is in the middle of nowhere and is a "fixer-upper". Unfortunately, the sloppiness continued as he turned his attention to mortgages.

Several people quoted in the article blamed the credit crunch for the so-called problem in the local real estate market. One would think Mr. Ayers might have actually quoted a person in the mortgage industry since he was reporting on mortgages but instead he cites Realtors and Mr. Martin as mortgage experts (I wonder if he goes to the dentist for a headache.). If the reporter had put forth a little effort and actually called Vicki Graves at AMS Mortgage, April Davidson at Mortgage 1st, or someone similar, he might have learned that there is plenty of credit available for buying a house. If a buyer can put down roughly 5% on a home, have a 620 credit score or above (a little lower on FHA), and can verify his income, he can get a mortgage for a home all day long at a decent rate from most mortgage lenders. There IS a lack of credit available to people who have bad credit scores, no money for a down payment, and can not document how much they make with tax returns, W-2's, and paystubs. In other words, forget what these people said in the article. Save a few thousand dollars, pay your bills, don't write everything off on your tax returns, and you will be able to buy a house.

Mr. Ayers then attempts to use sales data from the Jackson Association of Realtors to fit his little "housing prices are falling" template:
"The data show a majority of submarkets have seen asking prices decline while the number of days on the market rise.
The data do not reflect actual sales prices, and the National Association of Realtors won't release figures for the final quarter of 2008 until March
."

Unbelievable. An entire story reporting local housing prices are crashing is built around listing prices and admits actual sales prices are not used. This is not ignorance nor laziness but pure undiluted incompetence. If the Clarion-Ledger is going to lay off reporters, one should ask the publisher why this guy still has a job. Incidentally, the Associated Press-Re/Max Monthly Housing Report was released this week (Report) and it showed a slightly different set of data:

Number of Transactions
Current Month: 297
One month change: -26.67%
One year change: -33.11%
Active Inventory
Current Month: 3,346
One month change: -5.64%
One year change: -27.92%
Month's Supply of Inventory
Current Month: 11.3
Days on Market
Current Month: 97
One month change: -5.39%
One year change: 2.22%
Median Price – Sold
Current Month: $123,000
One month change: -12.14%
One year change: -3.95%

A recent report released by the Federal Housing Finance Agency confirms these numbers (Report). The East South Central region (MS, TN, AL, KY) showed a price decrease from October to November of just 1.4%. From September to October it was 0.2% and August to September was 0.5%. The twelve month change was a whopping 3.4% decrease in home prices, making it the second strongest housing market in the country (TX-LA-AR region was the strongest). It should also be pointed out that the reporter's ignorance showed in not just using "listing prices" as evidence for his plummeting claim. He fails to mention the average square footage of the homes listed nor a price per sq. foot amount, which would have been a much better indicator of how stable housing prices have been in Jackson recently.

This so-called story is garbage as its pretty clear someone told the reporter to go write an article on how local home prices were crashing, thus reflecting the national scene. His story admitted it had no basis in fact as it didn't even use any sales data. The Clarion-Ledger owes the Realtors of Jackson a huge apology as these headlines scare people away from buying homes. The newspaper has every right to report the news. However, it does not have the right to write stories that are completely false and only serve to create fea among the public.

The Realtors can protest all they want to Gannet but it won't do any good as all Gannett cares about is its bottom line. What the Realtors should do is pull their advertising for two weeks. No listings in the classifieds. No ads in the Sunday real estate section. Do that for one to two weeks to drive the point home. Such a boycott will get Gannett's attention more than any letter ever will. If Gannett is going to screw with the livelihoods of many hard-working people with this slop, it should find out what its like to be on the receiving end of its incompetence.

11 comments:

Kingfish said...

Here is the whole story:

Jackson area home sales plummet

Jeff Ayres • jeff.ayres@jackson.gannett.com • January 25, 2009

It's tough to sell a house these days. Just ask Brandon resident J.P. Martin.

He has not only seen prices plummet and inventories swell as he tries to sell his Byram home, but also must contend with a new round of payments at his new home in Rankin County.

When he put the 4-year-old Byram house up for sale more than seven months ago, the asking price for the 1,300-square-foot, three-bedroom, two-bathroom house was $124,900. It was lowered to $119,000 last week.

More price reductions may not make a difference, Martin said, as an ongoing credit crunch makes it more difficult for many people to buy homes.

"We've had quite a few people walk through and say, 'It's one of the nicest houses in the neighborhood,' but people who want to buy can't get qualified (for loans)," Martin said.

His plight is being felt across the state as housing prices largely continue to fall.

A Clarion-Ledger comparison of Jackson Association of Realtors sales data for the weeks of June 6 and Jan. 15 offers a glimpse at the metro-area market.

The data show a majority of submarkets have seen asking prices decline while the number of days on the market rise.

The data do not reflect actual sales prices, and the National Association of Realtors won't release figures for the final quarter of 2008 until March.

The Flowood-Pearl and southwest markets saw the largest percentage decline in asking price at 10 and 9.5 percent, respectively.

The north Jackson, Madison-Ridgeland, Crossgates-Brandon and U.S. 49 South to Florence remained flat with prices changing less than 1 percent.

"We are beginning to experience the effects of the (national) housing market, not to the extent that it's being felt in other areas," says Lynette Magee-Praytor, general manager of Crye-Leike Realty's Mississippi offices.

While home prices are dipping, that doesn't mean people aren't buying homes, she said.

Many foreclosed homes are selling at lower prices, generally below $150,000, and that can drag down the average sales figure for a particular area, she said.

A number of homes are being sold not to homebuyers but to investors who may resell them in the future, said John Jenkins, president of the Jackson Association of Realtors.

Demand slips tremendously for homes at $200,000 and up, area agents and brokers said.

Nationally, pricier homes are proving less popular with buyers because of higher utility costs and other expenses, Jenkins said.

Michael Anthony is having trouble selling a less-expensive home in Prentiss.

He bought the 1,600-square-foot house in August 2007 for $53,000. The home is 60 years old with three bedrooms, two bathrooms, high ceilings, a front porch and a small yard.

Since putting his home up for sale in May, the asking price has dropped from $59,500 to $52,500.

Anthony says the price may come down more if no buyers emerge.

"It's a nice home for a small family," he said before conceding, "It's definitely a fixer-upper."

But no one has given the home a serious look, and Anthony worries about having to hang on to it along with two homes elsewhere in the state that he plans to keep.

Martin said he paid $117,750 for the Byram home in February 2007 and planned to stay there awhile. But he and his wife both have since found jobs about 45 minutes away and wanted to move closer to their workplaces.

A major reason prices haven't improved across the board, Magee-Praytor says, is because lending standards have become more stringent for those seeking a home loan. Homes sales slow when fewer people can buy, she said. "The higher-dollar homes require a conventional loan or a jumbo loan" or a combination of the two, she said.

But Doug Maselle, who operates Century 21 Maselle and Associates, says people are scared off by news of tightening lending practices and other dire economic trends.

If someone's willing to be more disciplined financially, he says, they can buy a house for a reasonable price, even in the current economy, and lenders will work with them.

"I just want to scream when I hear that," Maselle says of what he calls misconceptions that good buying opportunities are scarce. "You just pay a little higher interest rate if your (credit) score is low."

Jenkins says the area's housing market likely has bottomed out, adding January is typically slow for housing activity.

What's tougher to predict, he said, is whether a significant improvement in prices and sales will start later this year or next.

"The Jackson market will have a quicker response," Jenkins said. "We may be here for a few more months."

Maselle is encouraged by the decrease in listings on Jackson's Multiple Listing Service from about 4,900 properties last year to 3,800 this year.

But he concedes some of those homes are from people pulling their homes off the market after not finding a buyer.

A person with a home sitting on the market should consider many factors - such as his reason for selling and the amount he plans to spend on his next home - when trying to decide what to do, Maselle said.

The options vary depending on the homeowner's situation and needs, he said.

Magee-Praytor said another option is to refinance if the owner has enough equity.

But both real estate professionals suggest consumer confidence is the main factor in determining when the housing market will turn around.

Magee-Praytor says several provisions that could be included in a proposed national economic stimulus package may help.

They include removing a repayment requirement from an already-approved $7,500 tax credit for first-time homebuyers and applying that credit to all homebuyers; making permanent FHA, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loan limits that are set to expire; and creating a federal mortgage interest buy-down program that would make below-market rates available to buyers.

"It's a confidence issue," Magee-Praytor says. "(Homebuyers) feel like they can take a look, provided they have a good credit score and 3 percent down payment."

Maselle adds consumers will feel better about buying a home if interest rates remain low, in turn helping stabilize prices.

To comment on this story, call Jeff Ayres at (601) 961-7050.


Average days on market for the week of Jan. 15:

Clinton 138

Southwest 136

West Jackson 128

North Jackson 115

Northeast 130

49N to I-55 115

Madison-Ridgeland 133

Reservoir 124

Flowood-Pearl 116

Crossgates-Brandon 128

49S to Florence 118

Out of area 145

Other areas 138

Source: Jackson Association of Realtors
By The numbers

The figures show the average list price for each submarket. This is may not be the final sales price, but what sellers are seeking.

Area June 6 Jan.15 % change

Clinton $208,834 $194,699 -6.77

Southwest $134,725 $121,873 -9.54

West Jackson $38,969 $42,078 7.98

North Jackson $66,735 $66,599 -0.20

Northeast $257,274 $242,626 -5.69

49N to I-55 $166,744 $160,254 -3.89

Madison/Ridgeland $341,305 $341,568 0.08

Reservoir $266,688 $250,881 -5.93

Flowood/Pearl $204,580 $184,103 -10.01

Crossgates/Brandon $225,424 $226,209 0.35

49S to Florence $174,704 $174,118 -0.34

Out of area $148,070 $146,584 -1.00

Other areas $251,690 $182,580 -27.46

Source: Jackson Association of Realtors

Anonymous said...

Everyone get that? This "business reporter" considers an INCREASE of a listing price from $117,750 to $119,500 to be an example of a price that plummets. Where did this guy intern? The Jackson Free Press?

Kingfish said...

I owe the JFP an apology. I really do. I don't think I've ever seen Adam Lynch make that kind of error and I'm being serious.

I think instead he interned at the Mississippi Business Journal.

Anonymous said...

I'm glad to see this posted. Thought I was the only one that believed this article was nonsense.

Kingfish said...

Story was garbage. One would think an editor would've caught this crap.

I'm serious about what the realtors should do. I'm in the business and in Jackson ALOT of people aren't buying houses because they are SCARED!!! They have jobs, have incomes, but are scared and this is the crap that really makes them panic. Yes, the President or Executive Director can write a letter of protest to the CL but the damage is done. They need to be taught a real lesson and a two week boycott would more than do the trick.

Hookah said...

That’s amazing Fish.

The C-L probably shouldn’t engage in such reporting since they only had 11 total ads in a recent Sunday paper fewer if you subtract the Amish fireless fire place and water purifier ads. This reporter should have considered the advertising that realtors, mortgage companies and housing professionals run in the paper and understand the concept of “killing the hand that feeds you.”

Anonymous said...

You are absolutely right. Considering the amount of money the Realtors drop at the Clarion-Ledger they should be demanding heads on a platter.

When the Realtors call over there to kick some a$$ they should mention what happened downtown on Sunday. This story about the auto show, including its reporting of tepid attendance as well as the reluctance to provide ballpark numbers by show organizers and the center operator -- and you KNOW if the numbers were good they would be spinning them hard, was originally headlined (in print on the front page of Metro/State [B1] and online) with "Driving dreams".

Well, some persons didn't appreciate the article and its tone (and all you folks at the C-L reading this know damn well who I'm talking about). So phone calls and complaints were made. Next thing you know around lunchtime the story online was headlined "Jackson auto show turnout soaring" though the story itself wasn't changed and didn't come close to matching the lofty rhetoric of soaring turnout.

So, to all the Realtors out there. Make some phone calls to the C-L, ream some new ones and let 'em know you know the rest of the story about how the downtown whiners got a headline jiggered online for the auto show last Sunday.

You see it ain't just the JFP who has sources inside the Clarion-Ledger. Wink, wink. Just sayin'. ;-)

Anonymous said...

above poster is right...everyone I talked to at the show said they had never seen that many people and were visably worn out as hundreds (hell probably thousands) ran wild in that place.

Anonymous said...

it was so packed you couldn't even move around.

Anonymous said...

2021 is trolling on about 12 differing names, talking to himself.

Anonymous said...

If the list to sale price ratio in the area is 91% you would have much lower numbers than the list prices. List prices mean nothing. I am surprised that someone at the Realtor board did not provide this reporter with median sale prices so they could compare them to the same quarter last year. Each quarter of the year has it's ups and downs.

NAR groups Hinds, Madison and Rankin counties together as the metro area. Madison and Rankin counties are relatively stable and show very little decline. Hinds declined the most in the past year. It is not realistic to group very low priced housing with high end properties and give an 'average'. Each area must be analyzed separately. We have many areas that remain stable and show little or no decline.



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